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Power Systems Reliability

This document discusses power system reliability and probability concepts. It defines reliability as the probability that a system will work, and describes different system models including series, parallel and combined structures. It provides examples of calculating reliability for these different system models based on the reliabilities of individual components. Finally, it introduces the bathtub curve model which describes failure rates over the lifetime of a product or system.

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rprp2012
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318 views27 pages

Power Systems Reliability

This document discusses power system reliability and probability concepts. It defines reliability as the probability that a system will work, and describes different system models including series, parallel and combined structures. It provides examples of calculating reliability for these different system models based on the reliabilities of individual components. Finally, it introduces the bathtub curve model which describes failure rates over the lifetime of a product or system.

Uploaded by

rprp2012
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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POWER SYSTEMS RELIABILITY

Activity 1:

Whats Your Buying Pattern? (10 minutes)

Subject : Probability and Statistics Target Audience : H.S. Level (Grade 12) General Objective: To teach the students the concept of reliability as an application of probability.

Power Systems Reliability

What is reliability?
Reliability measures the probability that a system or part of a system will work. So, if I say that the reliability of my walkman is 0.98 (or 98%), I mean that my walkman is working 98% of the time and failing 2% of the time.

Power Systems Reliability

What is a system?
A system is a collection of components, subsystem and/or assemblies arranged to a specific design in order to achieve desired functions with acceptable performance and reliability.

Power Systems Reliability

Models of a System
A) Series Structures
1 2

For this system to work, both components 1 and 2 must work. 1 2

...

Power Systems Reliability

A Personal Computer Power Supply Motherboard Processor Hard Drive

A Simple Series system

Power Systems Reliability

B) Parallel Structures
1 1 2 2
. . .

n
In a parallel system, the system will work as long as at least one component works.

Power Systems Reliability

C) Combination of Series and Parallel Structures 1 2

Power Systems Reliability

Finding A Systems Reliability


A) A Series System 1 2

...

For a pure series system, the system reliability is equal to the product of the reliabilities of its constituent components. Or:

Rs R1 R2 ... Rn

Power Systems Reliability

Example: Three components are connected in series and make up a system. Component 1 has a reliability of 0.95, component 2 has a reliability of 0.98 and component 3 has a reliability of 0.97 for a mission of 100 hours. Find the overall reliability of the system for a 100-hr mission.

Solution:
Rs = (R1)(R2)(R3)

= (0.95)(0.98)(0.97) = 0.90 = 90%

Activity 2A: Computing Series Systems


Reliability
1)
0.8 0.9

Rs = (0.8)(0.9) = 0.72

2)
0.7 0.6

Rs = (0.7)(0.6) = 0.42

Power Systems Reliability

Activity 2B: Effect of the Number of Components in a Series System


S y s t e m R e l i a b i l i t y
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Number

of

Components

Power Systems Reliability

B) A Parallel System 1
2
. . .

For a pure parallel system, the overall system reliability is equal to the product of the component unreliabilities. Thus, the reliability of the parallel system is given by: Rs = 1 [(1 R1)(1-R2)(1-Rn)]

Power Systems Reliability

Example: Three components are connected in parallel


and make up a system. Component 1 has a reliability of 0.95, component 2 has a reliability of 0.98 and component 3 has a reliability of 0.97 for a mission of 100 hours. Find the overall reliability of the system for a 100-hr mission.

Solution:
Rs = 1 [(1 R1)(1 R2)(1 R3)] = 1 [(1 0.95)(1-0.98)(1-0.97)] = 0.99997 = 99.997 %

R1 = 0.95

R2 = 0.98

R3 = 0.97

Activity 3A:Computing Parallel Systems Reliability


1)
0.9

0.8

Rs = 1 [(1- 0.9)(1- 0.8)] = 0.98

2)

0.7

Rs = 1 [(1- 0.7)(1- 0.8)] = 0.94

0.8

Power Systems Reliability

Activity 3B: Effect of the Number of Components in a Parallel System


S y s t e m R e l i a b i l i t y
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Number

of

Components

Power Systems Reliability

Example: Consider a system with three components. Units 1 and 2 are connected in series and Unit 3 is connected in parallel with the first two, as shown in the figure below. Find the reliability of the system. Solution:

C) Combination of Series and Parallel Structures

R1 = 0.99 R3 = 0.97

R2= 0.98

Power Systems Reliability

First, the reliability of the segment consisting of Units 1 and 2 is calculated: R1,2 = (R1)(R2) = (0.99)(0.98) = 0.97 The reliability of the overall system is then calculated by treating Units 1 and 2 as one with a reliability of 0.97 connected in parallel with Unit 3.

Therefore:

Power Systems Reliability

R1,2= 0.97

R3 = 0.97
Rs = 1 [(1 0.97)(1 0.97)] = 0.9991 = 99.91%

Activity 4:
1) R1=0.7

Combination of Series and Parallel Structure (10 minutes)


R2=0.6

R3=0.5 This is equivalent to: R1=0.7 R2,3=0.8

Rs = (0.7)(0.8) = 0.56

Activity 4: (contd)
2)

Combination of Series and Parallel Structure (10 minutes)


R2=0.9

R1=0.7 R3=0.5

This is equivalent to:

R1,2=0.63
R3=0.5

Rs = 1- [(1 - 0.63)(1 0.5)] = 0.815 = 81.5%

Power Systems Reliability

The Bathtub Curve


Reliability specialists often describe the lifetime of a population of products using a graphical representation called the bathtub curve. It characteristically describes the life of many products, as well as humans.
F A I L U R E

EARLY LIFE
(burn-in or break-in or infant mortality period)

USEFUL LIFE (or normal life)

WEAROUT LIFE

R A T (failure rate E decreases with time)

(failure rate approx. const)

(failure rate increases with time)

Time (hours, miles, cycles, etc)

Activity 5: Real-life Applications of the Bathtub Curve (10 minutes)

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