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Demand Forecasting

The document discusses various methods for forecasting, including survey methods like opinion surveys and customer interviews, and statistical methods like trend projection, regression, correlation, and barometric methods. It provides details on complete enumeration, sample surveys, and end-use methods as part of the survey approach. Statistical techniques covered include time series analysis, regression, correlation, and using economic indicators. Key attributes of good forecasting methods mentioned are plausibility, simplicity, economy, and availability.

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211 views13 pages

Demand Forecasting

The document discusses various methods for forecasting, including survey methods like opinion surveys and customer interviews, and statistical methods like trend projection, regression, correlation, and barometric methods. It provides details on complete enumeration, sample surveys, and end-use methods as part of the survey approach. Statistical techniques covered include time series analysis, regression, correlation, and using economic indicators. Key attributes of good forecasting methods mentioned are plausibility, simplicity, economy, and availability.

Uploaded by

Manohari Rd
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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methods of forecasting

FORECASTING METHODS
SURVEY METHOD Opinion Survey Consumers Interview Trend projection STATISTICAL METHOD Correlation & Barometric regression method

Complete enumeration

Sample survey

End use method

SURVEY METHOD
Information about the desires of the consumers and the opinions by interviewing them. Short - term forecasting depends heavily on this methods.

OPINION SURVEY METHOD


It is also known as sales - force composite method or collective opinion method. In the firm; salesmen are the persons who are very close to customers and these sales men can know and feel the customers reaction.

CUSTOMERS INTERVIEW METHOD


This is done by directly interviewing the consumers. Asking them about their plans and preferences regarding the consumption of the product. Norman F. Dufty, this approach is passive, it does not expose and measure the variables under managements control. Joel Dean opines that consumers plans are fragile, capricious and expensive to collect. 3 types

COMPLETE ENUMERATION METHOD


An interview of all the consumers of the product under forecast is taken. Sum total of individual expected demands gives the demand forecast for the product.

SAMPLE SURVEY METHOD


This method is useful for sample of consumers for interview. Sampling may be random sampling. Success depends on making the correct sampling.

END USE METHOD


We can find out the demand for the end use of the product and obtain demand separately for different sectors such as individual industries, final consumers, export and import, etc Requires industries to furnish their production plans and input-output coefficients.

STATISTICAL METHOD
Use the past data as a guide for future demand. Long term forecasting makes use of this methods.

TREND PROJECTION METHOD


Also known as time series analysis. Past data is arranged chronologically with regular intervals of time. This type of data is called time series. Involves procedures for decomposing the original sales series (y) into components, trend (T), season (S), cycle (C), and irregular events (I) Y=T+S+C+I.

REGRESSION AND CORRELATION METHOD

One has to ascertain the variables which determine the variable under forecast. One independent variable simple correlation. Several independent variable multiple correlation. Regression equation of y on x : y=a+bx.

BAROMETRIC METHOD

Events of the present are used to predict the directions of change in future. Done by the use of economic and statistical indicators. Types : i. Leading Series ii. Coincident series iii. Lagging series

FEATURES OF A GOOD FORECASTING METHOD

Plausibility Simplicity Economy Availability

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