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Probability Sessions 2 and 3

The document discusses key concepts in probability, including: 1) The union and intersection of events, and how to calculate the probability of unions and intersections using the addition and multiplication laws. 2) The concept of conditional probability and how to calculate it using the formula P(A|B)=P(A intersection B)/P(B). 3) How to determine if events are independent by checking if P(A|B)=P(A) or P(B|A)=P(B).

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30 views13 pages

Probability Sessions 2 and 3

The document discusses key concepts in probability, including: 1) The union and intersection of events, and how to calculate the probability of unions and intersections using the addition and multiplication laws. 2) The concept of conditional probability and how to calculate it using the formula P(A|B)=P(A intersection B)/P(B). 3) How to determine if events are independent by checking if P(A|B)=P(A) or P(B|A)=P(B).

Uploaded by

gautam
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability

Sessions 2 and 3

Union of Two Events


The union of events A and B is the event containing
all sample points that are in A or B or both.
The
The union
union of
of events
events A
A and
and B
B is
is denoted
denoted by
by A
A B
B

Event A

Event B

Sample
Space S

Intersection of Two Events


The
The intersection
intersection of
of events
events A
A and
and B
B is
is the
the set
set of
of all
all
sample
sample points
points that
that are
are in
in both
both A
A and
and B.
B.
The
The intersection
intersection of
of events
events A
A and
and B
B is
is denoted
denoted by
by A
A

Event A

Event B

Intersection of A and B

Sample
Space S

Addition Law
The addition law provides a way to compute the
probability of event A, or B, or both A and B occurring.
The law is written as:
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B

Mutually Exclusive Events


If
If events
events A
A and
and B
B are
are mutually
mutually exclusive,
exclusive, P(A
P(A
B
B =
= 0.
0.
The
The addition
addition law
law for
for mutually
mutually exclusive
exclusive events
events is:
is:
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

There is no need to
include P(A B

Conditional Probability
The probability of an event given that another event
has occurred is called a conditional probability.
The conditional probability of A given B is denoted
by P(A|B).
A conditional probability is computed as follows :

P( A B)
P( A| B)
P(B)

Multiplication Law
The multiplication law provides a way to compute the
probability of the intersection of two events.
The law is written as:
P(A B) = P(B)P(A|B)

Independent Events
If
If the
the probability
probability of
of event
event A
A is
is not
not changed
changed by
by the
the
existence
existence of
of event
event B,
B, we
we would
would say
say that
that events
events A
A
and
and B
B are
are independent.
independent.
Two
Two events
events A
A and
and B
B are
are independent
independent if:
if:
P(A|B)
P(A|B) =
= P(A)
P(A)

or

P(B|A)
P(B|A) =
= P(B)
P(B)

Multiplication Law
for Independent Events
The multiplication law also can be used as a test to see
if two events are independent.
The
The law
law is
is written
written as:
as:
P(A B) = P(A)P(B)

Some Concepts
Marginal Probability The unconditional probability of one event
occurring; the probability of a single/simple event.
Joint Probability The probability of two or more events occurring
together
Conditional Probability- The probability of one event occurring
given that another event has occurred.
Note : For Marginal Probability and Joint Probability, the
base/denominator is the sample space whereas for Conditional
Probability the base/denominator is the event which has occurred.

Bayes Theorem
Often we begin probability analysis with initial or
prior probabilities.
Then, from a sample, special report, or a product
test we obtain some additional information.
Given this information, we calculate revised or
posterior probabilities.
Bayes theorem provides the means for revising the
prior probabilities.
Prior
Prior
Probabilities
Probabilities

New
New
Information
Information

Application
Application
of
of Bayes
Bayes
Theorem
Theorem

Posterior
Posterior
Probabilities
Probabilities

Bayes Theorem
To find the posterior probability that event Ai will
occur given that event B has occurred, we apply
Bayes theorem.

P( Ai )P(B| Ai )
P( Ai | B)
P(A1)P(B| A1) P( A2 )P(B| A2 ) ... P(An )P(B| An )
Bayes theorem is applicable when the events for
which we want to compute posterior probabilities
are mutually exclusive and their union is the entire
sample space.

Use of Tree Diagram(Tips)


First draw paths where the marginal probability of the
event is given
This should be followed by the conditional probability of
the events which happens later
When you trace the probabilities in the same path, you
multiply the probabilities
When you trace the probabilities in the alternate paths,
you add the probabilities

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