Department of Science and Technology

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

1st Agusan Del Norte Provincial Convention on Disaster Risk Reduction and
Climate Change Adaptation
26 July 2016 * Butuan City

Rosalie C. PAGULAYAN
Weather Specialist II
Hydrometeorology Division, PAGASA
oyie.pagulayan@pagasa.dost.gov.ph
 Outline of Presentation
Nature of hazards in the Philippines

Early Warning System (structures)

Lessons learned
 Nature of hazards in the Philippines
World Risk Report, 2017

Source: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk

Reduction/Centre on the Epidemiology of Disasters

Photo credit: http://www.amit-

sengupta.com/reason-behind-mount-agung-bali-
volcano-eruption-upsa-ias-ssc-cgl/pacific-ring-of- Cinco, et al, 2010
Photo credit:
fire-upsc-geography/
https://www.dwd.de/EN/climate_environment/climatemoni
toring/global/tropical_cyclones/
 Source: GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery), ThinkHazard.org

Since 1990, the Philippines has been affected by 565 natural disaster events
that claimed the lives of nearly 70,000 Filipinos and caused an estimated
amount of USD 23 B in damages.
Significant disaster events in the Philippines
Worst disasters in terms of casualties: Worst disasters in terms of cost of
Disaster Date Number of People damages
Killed
Disaster Date Estimated Cost of
Typhoon Yolanda 8-Nov-2013 6,300 Damage (000,
(Haiyan) US$)

1976 Mindanao 17-Aug-1976 6,000 Typhoon Yolanda 8-Nov-2013 2,051,711

earthquake (Haiyan)

Typhoon Uring (Thelma) 5-Nov-1991 5,956 Typhoon Pablo (Bopha) 4-Dec-2012 1,692,961

Typhoon Sisang (Nina) 4-Sep-1995 700,300

1990 Luzon earthquake 16-Jul-1990 2,412
Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) 29-Sep-2009 585,379
Typhoon Pablo (Bopha) 4-Dec-2012 1,901
Mt. Pinatubo eruption 15-Jun-1991 443,000
Tropical Depression 29-Nov-2004 1,619 Typhoon Ruping (Mike) 12-Nov-1990 388,500
Winnie
1990 Luzon earthquake 16-Jul-1990 369,600
Typhoon Titang (Kate) 13-Oct-1970 1,551
Typhoon Sendong (Washi) 15-Dec-2011 1,439 Typhoon Pedring (Nesat) 24-Sep-2011 344,173

Typhoon Frank 21-Jun-2008 284,694

Typhoon Nitang (Ike) 1-Sep-1984 1,422 (Fengshen)
Typhoon Reming (Durian) 30-Nov-2006 1,399 Typhoon Juan (Megi) 18-Oct-2010 275,745

Source: Worst Natural Disasters in the Philippines, Rappler, Published August 2014
Based on EM-DAT International Disaster Database
Worst disasters in terms of the number of people affected:
Disaster Date Number of
Affected People

Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) 8-Nov-2013 16,106,807

Typhoon Pablo (Bopha) 4-Dec-2012 6,246,664

Typhoon Ruping (Mike) 12-Nov-1990 6,159,569

Typhoon Ondoy (Ketsana) 26-Sep-2009 4,901,763

Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) 21-Jun-2008 4,785,460

Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) 29-Sep-2009 4,478,491

2012 Habagat (Southwest 6-Aug-2012 4,451,725

Monsoon)

Typhoon Loleng (Babs) 21-Oct-1998 3,902,424

Typhoon Milenyo 27-Sep-2006 3,842,406

(Xangsane)
Typhoon Openg (Vera) 20-Nov-1973 3,400,024

Source: Worst Natural Disasters in the Philippines

Rappler, Published August 2014
Based on EM-DAT International Disaster Database
 Typhoon Reming (DURIAN)
29 November 2006 in Albay

Affected Total
Dead
population Damage

734 2.0M P5.5B

Guinsaugon Landslide, Feb 2006

Typhoon Milenyo
We are living in VUCA times….Volatile,
(XANGSANE)
28 September 2006 in
MM
Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous
Affected
Dea Total
populatio
d Damage
n
7.2 Magnitude EQ in Bohol
184 4.0M P6.4B

Typhoon Haiyan at peak Zamboanga siege

Marawi Crisis Luneta hostage crisis
intensity while approaching Photo credit: Capiz news
Photo credit: Philstar.com Phot credit: Rappler
the Philippines on November
Photo credit: Wikipedia
 What is an Early Warning System (EWS)?
“Early Warning” – an expression used in many fields
to mean the provision of information of an imminent
dangerous circumstances, wherein these information
can enable action in advance to reduce the risks
involved.

It may exist for:

• Natural hydro-meteorological, geophysical and biological
hazards
• Complex socio-political emergencies
• Industrial hazards
• Personal health risks and many other related risks.
Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred
Reid Basher
Published 15 August 2006.
What is an Early Warning System (EWS)?
“Early warning systems are combinations of tools and
processes embedded within institutional structures,
coordinated by international — and sometimes national —
agencies.” Lucy Pearson, Early warning of disasters: Facts and
figures, SciDev.Net

An EWS serves as the core for warning services…

What is an Early Warning System (EWS)?
“The provision of timely and effective information, through identifying
institutions, that allow individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to
avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response”
(International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), 2003)

“An EWS is a social process for generating maximally accurate

information about possible future harm and for ensuring that this
information reaches the people threatened by this harm, as well as
others disposed to protect them from the harm.” Early Warning Systems:
Do’s and Don’ts, M.H. Glantz, Shanghai, Oct 2003

Critical issues:
• How early is early?
• What constitutes a warning?
• What is meant by a system?
• What are to be its official functions?
• What else might it do?
• What are the levels of warning?
Four elements of an Early Warning System
RISK KNOWLEDGE MONITORING and WARNING SERVICE

Systematically collect data and Develop hazard monitoring and early

undertake risk assessment warning services

Are the hazards and the vulnerabilities Are the right parameters being
well known? monitored?
What are the patterns and trends in these Is there a sound scientific basis for making
factors? forecasts?
Are risk maps and data widely available? Can accurate and timely warnings be
generated?
DISSEMINATION and RESPONSE CAPABILITY
COMMUNICATION
Build national and community response
Communicate risk information and capabilities
early warnings
Are response plans up to date and tested?
Do warnings reach all those at risk? Are local capabilities and knowledge
Are the risk and warnings understood? made use of?
Is the warning information clear and Are people prepared and ready to react to
useable? warnings?

Adapted from Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checklist, EWC III, March 2003
Goal and Purpose of an EWS
Early warning systems are mitigating operational
structures that integrate PEOPLE, INSTITUTIONS and
INSTRUMENTATION.

GOAL: To take immediate response measures in the

eventuality of a natural phenomenon that may cause
a disaster.

PURPOSE: To save human lives; reduce the

possibility of personal injury; and to empower the
local authorities and communities to take preventive
measures to minimize the damages caused by
natural hazards to properties, livelihood,
infrastructure and vital lifelines.
Three Pillars of an EWS:

• Institutions for the design,

establishment, operation and Early Warning System
maintenance of all the
various components of the
system

• Civil Society for the Institutions

promotion of the system and Civil Society
participation in the
anticipated response phase

• Instrumentation to monitor
Instrumentation
the precursor of hazards, for
exchange of information and
as preparatory for warning
Phases of EWS
Traditional framework Improved framework

“End-to-End” system include the

Anticipated Response Phase

(adapted from United Nations University-Institute for Environment and Human Security
(UNU-EHS)
Lessons learned
 There is NO perfect EWS except on paper, in government plans or in power
point presentation due to the many difficulties surrounding the processes at
various locations in the flow of warning preparation to communication and
actions.
 Even with a highly effective EWS, it is reasonable to expect that problems
will still arise in the hazard-affected areas. Past experiences should be
included in the setting-up and modification process of an EWS.
 Lesson from the past disaster can act as catalyst for the improvement and
future endeavours for EWS.
 Due to limitation of resources both in human and financial aspect, it is
important to distinguish between what is desirable for an effective EWS and
what is essential.
 EWS need to be treated as a SUB-SYSTEM, embedded and integrated into
a larger socio-economic and political systems.
 Develop strategies in the design, presentation, operation, dissemination and
communication of the warning to maximize its effectiveness and relevance.
 An EWS is an important tool in a government program to achieve sustainable
development.
Lessons learned
 As new early warning technologies and techniques are being developed,
EWS have an opportunity to become more effective in their spatial
coverage and increase the lead time in warning.
 It is important to consider that setting up an EWS can be a mechanism
that will bring people together, come up with a concerted effort that will
enhance their existing capabilities.
 Climate change can have an impacts that add to the list of yet unknown
underlying processes that can affect the hazard and societal vulnerability.
 Stakeholders should have an active participation in the setting up and
improvement of an existing EWS.
 A functional and systematic EWS can help save lives…but cannot
prevent the destruction of properties.
 EWS can help in many types of hydro-meteorological hazards but may
have some challenging limitations for geologic hazards.
 There is a need to understand “uncertainties” in the forecasts.
 In any disaster of given magnitude, the first line of defense is still
awareness and preparedness of the communities at risk.
For any early warning system to succeed,
several components are necessary:
 Technology to detect and monitor the hazard;
 Communication systems to alert the public;
 Local leaders trained to make the right decisions;
 A public that is educated to react appropriately to warnings;
and
 Response protocols — such as evacuation plans — prepared
and rehearsed well in advance of the threat.

All these elements must work well, both individually and in

harmony.

Failure in any one of these elements can mean failure of the

whole early warning system.
Photo credit: PRFFWC, PAGASA