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Crimestatistics - 2

This document discusses the role of statistics in analyzing crime data. It describes two broad categories of statistics - descriptive statistics, which processes data without inferences, and inductive statistics, which uses mathematical tools to make forecasts and inferences from data. Statistics can determine crime trends over time, analyze relationships between crime and socioeconomic factors, validate hypotheses about crime, and identify crime-prone areas. Socioeconomic factors like population, economic conditions, law enforcement effectiveness, and attitudes toward crime can all affect crime rates. The document also defines various key crime statistics terms like crime volume, index crimes, crime and clearance rates, solved vs cleared cases, and how to calculate percentage changes in crime levels over time.

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Amal Tolia
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79 views17 pages

Crimestatistics - 2

This document discusses the role of statistics in analyzing crime data. It describes two broad categories of statistics - descriptive statistics, which processes data without inferences, and inductive statistics, which uses mathematical tools to make forecasts and inferences from data. Statistics can determine crime trends over time, analyze relationships between crime and socioeconomic factors, validate hypotheses about crime, and identify crime-prone areas. Socioeconomic factors like population, economic conditions, law enforcement effectiveness, and attitudes toward crime can all affect crime rates. The document also defines various key crime statistics terms like crime volume, index crimes, crime and clearance rates, solved vs cleared cases, and how to calculate percentage changes in crime levels over time.

Uploaded by

Amal Tolia
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CRIME STATISTICS

A science that deals with the


methods of collecting, organizing
and summarizing data in such a
way that valid conclusions can
be drawn from them
Statistical investigations and analyses of
data fall into two broad categories:
 Descriptive Statistics – deals with
processing data without attempting to
draw any inferences from it

 Inductive Statistics – a scientific


discipline concerned with developing
and using mathematical tools to make
forecasts and inferences.
Role of Statistics in Crime Situation:
 Determines crime trend over the years
 Provides an analysis of the relationship of
crime incidents with different socio-economic
factors
 Validates hypotheses regarding crime incidents
 Provides a vehicle for understanding some of
the experimental reforms instituted by the
Headquarters
 Traces the crime prone areas in a place and as
to why it is labeled as such
Socio-Economic Factors Affecting the Crimes
Situation:
 Population density and size of locality
 Variations in composition of the population,
particularly age structure
 Stability of population with respect to residents’
mobility and transient factors
 Economic conditions, including job availability
 Cultural conditions, such as educational,
recreational, and religious characteristics
Socio-Economic Factors Affecting the Crimes
Situation:
 Climate
 Effective strength of law enforcement agencies
 Administrative and investigative emphases of
law enforcement
 Policies of other components of the criminal
justice system
 Attitudes of citizenry toward crime
 Crime reporting practices of citizenry
 Crime Volume – refers to the number of crime
incidents committed in a given area over a
period of time. For our purpose, it refers to the
total number of crime incidents reported or
brought to the attention of law enforcement
agencies
 Index Crimes – crimes which are serious in
nature and which occur with sufficient
regularity such that they can serve as an index
to the crime situation. (i.e. murder, homicide,
physical injury, rape, robbery and theft)
Carnapping and Cattle rustling were included
 Non-Index Crimes – RIR (homicide, physical
injury, damage to property), Viol of Spl Laws,
Other non-index crimes
 Population – number of inhabitants in a given
area
 Crime Rate – the number of crime incidents in a
given period for every 100,000 inhabitants of an
area.
CV
CR = = crime incidents per 100,000 population
P/100,000
Where: CV = Crime Volume
P = Population
CR = Crime Rate
 Ex.
CV = 289
Pop = 4,313,433

289
CR =
(4,313,433/100,000)

CR = 6.7 per 100,000 population


 AMCR – Average Monthly Crime Rate

CV/P
AMCR = x 100,000
N Where: CV = Crime Volume
P = Population
CR = Crime Rate
N = Nr of Months

 Ex. CV = 878, P = 4,313,433, N = 3


878/4,313,433
AMCR = x 100,000
3
AMCR = 6.79 per 100,000 population
 Solved Cases – NAPOLCOM MC No. 94-017
defines a solved case as follows:
“1. The offender has been identified; there is
sufficient evidence to charge him; the
offender has been taken into custody; and
the offender has been charged before the
prosecutor’s office or court of appropriate
jurisdiction.
2. When some elements beyond police control
prevent the arrest of the offender; such as
when the victim refuses to prosecute after
after the offender is identified or the offender
dies or absconds.
3. The arrest of one offender can solve several
crimes or several offenders may be arrested in
the process of solving one crime.”
Therefore, a case can be considered solved
only if one of the suspect/s is arrested.
 Crime Solution Efficiency – percentage of
solved cases out of the total number of
reported crime incidents handled by law
enforcement agencies for a given period of
time. It is a general measure of a law
enforcement agency’s investigative capability
or efficiency
SC
CSE = X 100 Where: SC = Solved Cases
CV = Crime Volume
CV CSE = Crime Solution Efficiency

 Ex. SC = 754, CV = 878


754
CSE = x 100 = 85.88%
878
 Cleared Case – A case shall be considered
cleared when at least one of the offenders has
been identified; there is sufficient evidence to
charge him; he has been charged before the
prosecutor’s office or any other court of
appropriate jurisdiction. Included in this
category are solved cases.
 Crime Clearance Efficiency – percentage of
cleared cases out of the total number of
reported crime incidents handled by law
enforcement agencies for a given period of
time.

CC Where: CC = Cleared Cases


CCE = X 100 CV = Crime Volume
CV CCE = Crime
Clearance Efficiency
 Ex. CC = 879, CV = 905
879
CCE = x 100 = 97.13%
905
 % change – one way of analyzing crime trends.
It measures percentage change over a given
period of time.
Where: Xt = present value
Xt – X o
% change = x 100 Xo = previous value
Xo

 Ex. Xt = 21,021, Xo = 20,793


21,021 – 20,793
% change = x 100
20,793
% change = 1.10%
Thank You & Good Day

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