Spencer Dale

Group chief
economist
Energy Outlook
scenarios
Primary energy consumption by CO2
fuel emissions
Billion
toe Gt
2 5 of CO2
5 204 Evolving transition
0 (ET)
0
More energy (ME)
2 4
Renew.* Less
Rapidglobalization
transition
0 0 (LG)
(RT)
Hydro
1 3
5 Nuclea
0
r Coal
1 2
Gas
0 0
Oil
5 1
0

0 0
2017 ET ME LG RT 197 1980 1990 2000 2020 2030 2040
0 2010
*Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and 2019 BP Energy
biofuels Outlook© BP p.l.c.
 Three windows on the energy
transition Primary energy
demand Fue
l
End-use sector Region
20 Transpor Other 2 Renewable
Billion toe
20 Africa 0 s Hydro
t
Other
Industry Nuclea
Non- Asia
1 combusted 1 1 rCoa
Building India
China
5 5 5 l
s
OEC Gas

1 1 D 1 Oil
0 0 0

5 5 5

0 0 0

2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Energy demand by
sector
Primary energy consumption Annual demand growth
by end-use sector and sector contributions
Billion toe % per annum
2 Transpor 2.5
0 %
t
Industry 2.0
1 %
Non-
Building
5 combust
s
ed 1.5
%
10
1.0
%
5
0.5
%

0 0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 % 1995- 2017-
2040 2017 2040
2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Regional energy
demand
Primary energy Primary energy growth and
consumption by region regional contributions
Billion toe % per annum
2 Other
3.0
0 %
Other
2.5
Asia
%
1 Africa 2.0
5 India %
Chin
a
OECD 1.5
1 %
0 1.0
%
0.5
5 %
0.0
%
-
0
0.5% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1990 2010 2020 204
- - - - -
2000 2030 0
200 201 202 203 2019
204BP Energy
0 0 0 0 0
Outlook
Increase in primary energy
demand
Increase in primary energy demand, 2017-
2040
Billion
Income Energy
toe
3 per efficiency
0 head
2
5
2 World
0 populatio
n
1
5
1
0
5

0
201 204
7 0
2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Global energy by fuel
type
Primary energy consumption by Shares of primary
fuel energy

2
Billion toeRenewable 50
0 %
s Hydro
Nuclear 40
1 Coa %
5
l
30
Gas
Oil %
1
0
20
%
5
10
%

0 0%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2040 2030 2040
2019 BP Energy
Outlook
 Three windows on the energy
transition Primary energy
demand Fue
l
End-use sector Region
20 Transpor
2 Renewable
Billion toe Other
20 0 s Hydro
t Africa
Industry Other Nuclea
Non- Asia
1 combusted 1 1 rCoa
Building China
India
5 5 5 l
s
OEC Gas

1 1 D 1 Oil
0 0 0

5 5 5

0 0 0

2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Five key questions and
uncertainties
 How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?

 How important are plastics for the future of oil

demand?

 What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?

 How quickly could renewables grow?

 A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be

done?

2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Five key questions and
uncertainties
 How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?

 How important are plastics for the future of oil

demand?

 What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?

 How quickly could renewables grow?

 A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be

done?

2019 BP Energy
Outlook
UN Human Development Index and energy consumption, 2017

HDI

Gigajoules/head
Dual challenge: more energy, less
carbon
Primary energy demand and carbon
emissions
Cumulative growth
rate
70
%
50
Primary
% more
energy
30 energy
%
10
%
-
10% less CO2
- carbon
30%
-
50%
-
70% 2017 2023 2026 202 203 203 203
2020 9 2 5 8
Primary energy 2019 BP Energy
Evolving transition
Outlook
CO
Five key questions and
uncertainties
 How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?

 How important are plastics for the future of oil

demand?

 What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?

 How quickly could renewables grow?

 A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be

done?

2019 BP Energy
1 Outlook
Demand for oil and other liquid
fuels
Liquids Liquids demand
demand growth
Mb/ Mb/d, average annual
d growth
2. Power
Power Buildings
140 Industry Non-combusted
0
Building
12 Non-
1. s
0 road Trucks
Cars 5 Industry
10
Non-
0
1. combusted
8
0 Transport
0
6 Total
0.
0 5
4
0 Transpor 0.
t
2 0
0
0 -
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 0.5 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030-
2040 2035-
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2019
2035BP Energy
2040 Outlook
Demand for liquid fuels and
plastics
Demand for non-combusted liquid Liquid feedstocks for single-use
fuels plastics
Mb/ Mb/
d3 d7
0
2 Impact of tighter 6
5 plastics
regulations in ET 5
2 scenario
0 Impact of
4
single use
1
plastics ban
5 3
1
0 2

5 1

0 0
201 204 199 200 201 202 203 204
7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Demand and supply of
oil
Mb/
d
More energy
140
Evolving transition
12 Single-use plastics
0 ban Greater reform
10 Less
0 globalization
8 Rapid transition
0 Supply with no
Trillions
investments in
6 of $s
new fields
0
40

20

0
197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Five key questions and
uncertainties
 How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?

 How important are plastics for the future of oil

demand?

 What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?

 How quickly could renewables grow?

 A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be

done?

2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Less globalization
scenario
 Reduced openness and trade leads to slight reduction in trend
global GDP growth

 Concerns about energy security adds a small risk premium

(10%) to imported energy

2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Difference relative to ET scenario in Net exports (oil & gas)
2040:
Mtoe
Global GDP and energy
0
ET
China Less
-300 globalizati
on
Column1
-600

-900
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

300
US
0

-300

-600

-900
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Five key questions and
uncertainties
 How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?

 How important are plastics for the future of oil

demand?

 What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?

 How quickly could renewables grow?

 A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be

done?

2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Renewable
energy
Renewables share of power Fuel shares in
generation power

30
% 50 Gas
Geothermal % Coal
25 and
Renewables
biomass
% 40 Hydro &
Solar
% Nuclear
20
% 30
Wind
15 %
%
20
10 %
%
5% 10
%

0% 0%
199 201 202 204 200 201 202 203 204
5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019 BP Energy
Outlook
 Speed of energy
transition
Speed of penetration of new fuels in global energy
system

Share of world
energy 35% Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables
30% (1877) (1899) (1974) (1922) (2006)

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0 reaching 1%
Years from 0 0 0
2019 BP Energy
share Outlook
Five key questions and
uncertainties
 How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?

 How important are plastics for the future of oil

demand?

 What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?

 How quickly could renewables grow?

 A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be

done?

2019 BP Energy
Outlook
CO2 emissions in ET
scenario
CO 2 CO2 emissions by
emissions sector
Gt
4 of CO2 Gt
4 of CO2
Transpor
0 Evolving 0
transition t
Industry
3 3
Buildings
0 0
Power

2 2
0 0

1 1
0 0

0 0
196 198 199 201 202 204 199 201 204
5 0 5 0 5 0 5 7 0
2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Rapid transition scenario: policy
measures
 Wide range of policy measures: broadly equivalent in
terms of their implied costs and effort

 No silver bullet: a comprehensive set of policy measures is

needed

 Carbon prices are key, especially in the power and

industrial sectors

 Role for targeted regulatory measures, especially until

carbon prices reach
material levels

2019 BP Energy
Outlook
CO2
emissions
CO 2 CO2 in 2040: ET vs RT
emissions scenario
Gt
4 of CO2 Gt
4 of CO2
0 0
Evolving
transition
Rapid 3
3 transtion 0
0

2
2 0
0
1
1 0
0
0

Powe

Building

Transpo
Industry
0

2040

2040
196 198 199 201 202 204

ET

RT
r
5 0 5 0 5 0

rt
&

s
2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Global energy demand and fuel
mix
Primary energy consumption by fuel

Billion
toe 20

Renewables
16
Hydro

1 Nuclea
2 r
Coal
8
Gas

4 Oil

0
201 Rapid Evolving
7 transition 204 transition
0 2019 BP Energy
Outlook
Hard-to-abate carbon emissions
CO2 emissions in RT scenario in 2040

Gt of CO Decarbonise power sector

2
• Renewables
• Gas (and coal) plus CCUS
• Energy storage and demand-side-response

Other low-carbon energy sources and

carriers
• Hydrogen
• Bioenergy
Efficiency
• Circular economy
• Process efficiency

Storage and removal of carbon

• CCUS
• Negative emission technologies, eg land
carbon, bioenergy with CCS (BECCS)
Spencer Dale
Group chief
economist