Analyze Phase

“X” Sifting
 “X” Sifting

Welcome to Analyze
Multi-Vari Analysis

“X” Sifting
Classes and Causes
Inferential Statistics

Intro to Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis Testing ND P1

Hypothesis Testing ND P2

Hypothesis Testing NND P1

Hypothesis Testing NND P2

Wrap Up & Action Items

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 2 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Multi-Vari Studies

In the Define Phase we used Process Mapping to identify all the

possible “X’s” on the horizon. In the Measure Phase we used the X-Y
Matrix, FMEA and Process Map to narrow our investigation to the
probable “X’s”.

The XXXXXXXXXX
Themany
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when XXXXXXXXXX
when we firststart
we first start X XX XXXXX X X
(The
(Thetrivial
trivialmany)
many) X XX XXXXX X X

XX XX XX X
The
Thequantity
quantityof
ofX’s
Xs
keep
after we
reducing
think as
you
about
workY=f(X)
the project
+e

The
Thequantity
quantityofofX’s
Xs
when
remaining
we apply
after
XXX
leverage
DMAIC
(The vital
few)

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 3 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Multi-Vari Definition

Multi-Vari Studies – a tool that graphically displays

patterns of variation. Multi-Vari Studies are used to
identify possible X’s or families of variation. These
families of variation can hide within a subgroup, between
subgroups, or over time.

• The Multi-Vari Chart helps in screening factors by using graphical

techniques to logically subgroup discrete X’s (Independent Variables)
plotted against a continuous Y (Dependent). By looking at the pattern
of the graphed points, conclusions are drawn from about the largest
family of variation.

• Multi-Vari Chart can also be used to assess capability, stability and

graphical relationships between X’s and Y’s.

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 4 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Purpose

The use of a Multi-Vari Chart illustrates analysis of variance

data graphically.

A picture can be worth a thousand words… or numbers.

– Multi-Vari Charts are useful in visualizing two-way
interactions.

Multi-Vari Charts reveal information such as:

– Effect of work shift on Y’s.
– Impact of specific machinery or material on Y’s.
– Effect of noise factors on Y’s, etc.

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 Multi-Vari Example

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 6 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Method

Sampling Plans should encompass all three types of

variation: Within, Between and Temporal.
1. Create Sampling Plan
2. Gather Passive Date
3. Graph Data
4. Check to see if Variation is Exposed
5. Interpret Results

No
Yes
Create Gather Is
Graph Variation Interpret
Sampling Passive
Data Exposed Results
Plan Data

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 7 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Sources of Variation

Within Unit or Positional

– Within piece variation related to the geometry of the part.

– Variation across a single unit containing many individual parts;
such as a wafer containing many computer processors.
– Location in a batch process such as plating.

Between Unit or Cyclical

– Variation among consecutive pieces.

– Variation among groups of pieces.
– Variation among consecutive batches.

Temporal or over time Shift-to-Shift

– Day-to-Day
– Week-to-Week

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 8 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Machine Layout & Variables

Master Injection Pressure

% Oxygen
Distance to Tank
Injection
Pressure Per
Cavity
Fluid Level

#1
#2

Die Ambient
#3
Temp Temp
#4

Die
Release

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 9 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Sampling Plan

Monday Wednesday Friday

Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die
Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle
#1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3

Cavity #1

Cavity #2

Cavity #3

Cavity #4

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 10 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Within-Unit Encoding

Within Unit
Monday Wednesday Friday
Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die
Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle
#1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3

Cavity #1

Cavity #2

Cavity #3

Cavity #4

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 11 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Between-Unit Encoding

Unit to Unit
Monday Wednesday Friday
Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die
Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle
#1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3

Cavity #1

Cavity #2

Cavity #3

Cavity #4

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 12 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Temporal Encoding

Temporal
Monday Wednesday Friday
Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die Die
Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle Cycle
#1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3

Cavity #1

Cavity #2

Cavity #3

Cavity #4

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 13 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Using Multi-Vari to Narrow X’s

List potential X’s and assign them to one of the families of variation.
– This information can be pulled from the X-Y Matrix of the
Measure Phase.
If an X spans one or more families assign %’s to the supposed split.

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 14 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Using Multi-Vari to Narrow X’s

Graph the data from the process in Multi-Vari form.

Identify the largest family of variation.

Establish statistical significance through the appropriate statistical

testing.

Focus further effort on the X’s associated with the family of largest
variation.

Remember the goal is not only to figure

out what it is but also what it is not!

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 15 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Data Worksheet

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 Run Multi-Vari

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 17 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Identify The Largest Family of Variation

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 18 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Root Cause Analysis

Focus further effort on the X’s associated with the family of

greatest variation.

Die Cycle to Die Cycle –

Something is Changing!

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 19 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Call Center Example

A company with two call centers wants to compare two methods of

handling calls at each location at different times of the day.

One method involves a team to resolve customer issues, and the

other method requires a single subject-matter expert to handle the
call alone.

• Output (Y)
– Call Time

• Input (X)
– Call Center (GA,NV)
– Time of Day (10:00, 13:00, 17:00)
– Method (Expert, Team)

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 20 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Call Center Example

Which is causing the greatest variation…

Time? Method? Location?

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 21 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Call Center Example

Is the largest source of variation more or less

obvious?

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 22 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Call Center Example

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 23 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Call Center Example

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 24 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Multi-Vari Exercise

Exercise objective: To practice Six Sigma techniques learned

to date in your teams.

1. Open file named “MVA Cell Media.MTW”.

2. Perform Capability Analysis; use the column labeled volume.
There is only an upper specification limit of 500 ml. ?
– Are the data Normal? _______
– Is the process Capable? _______
3. What is the issue that needs work in terms of Six Sigma
terminology?
– Shift Mean? _______
– Reduce variation? _______
– Combination of Mean and variation? _______
– Change specifications? _______

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 25 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 MVA Solution

Check for Normality…

Probability Plot of Volume

Normal
99.9
Mean 514.7
StDev 6.854
99 N 144
AD 0.495
95 P-Value 0.212
90
80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20
10
5

Is that 1

normal? 0.1
490 500 510 520 530 540
Volume

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 26 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 MVA Solution

Another method to check Normality is…

Summary for Volume

A nderson-Darling N ormality Test
A -S quared 0.49
P -V alue 0.212
M ean 514.71
S tDev 6.85
V ariance 46.97
S kew ness -0.084725
Kurtosis -0.696960
N 144
M inimum 500.64
1st Q uartile 509.70
M edian 515.32
3rd Q uartile 520.12
504 510 516 522 528 M aximum 529.39
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
513.58 515.84
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
513.90 516.37
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tDev
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals
6.14 7.75
Mean

Median

513.5 514.0 514.5 515.0 515.5 516.0 516.5

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 27 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 MVA Solution

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 28 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 MVA Solution

Process Capability of Volume

USL
P rocess Data Within
LS L * Ov erall
Target *
USL 500 P otential (Within) C apability
S ample M ean 514.709 Z.Bench -2.89
S ample N 144 Z.LS L *
S tDev (Within) 5.08411 Z.U S L -2.89
S tDev (O v erall) 6.85375 C pk -0.96
O v erall C apability
Z.Bench -2.15
Z.LS L *
Z.U S L -2.15
P pk -0.72
C pm *

500 504 508 512 516 520 524 528

O bserv ed P erformance E xp. Within P erformance E xp. O v erall P erformance
P P M < LS L * PPM < LS L * P P M < LS L *
P P M > U S L 1000000.00 PPM > U S L 998092.41 P P M > U S L 984065.98
P P M Total 1000000.00 PPM Total 998092.41 P P M Total 984065.98

REDUCE VARIATION!! - then shift Mean

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 29 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 MVA Solution

Perform a Multi-Vari Analysis

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 30 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 MVA Solution

What is the largest source of variation?

Multi-Vari Chart for Volume by Within - Temporal

1 2 1 2 1 2
800 1100 1400 1700 2000 2300 W ithin
530 1
2
3
525
4
5
520 6
7
Volume

8
515 9
10
11
510
12

505

500
1 2 1 2 1 2
Between
Panel variable: Temporal

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 31 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Data Collection Sheet

The data used in the Multi-Vari Analysis must be balanced

for MINITABTM to generate the graphic properly.

The injection molding data collection sheet was created as follows:

– 3 time periods
– 4 widgets per die cycle
– 3 units per time period

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 32 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Data Collection Sheet

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 33 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Classes of Distributions

Multi-Vari is a tool to help screen X’s by visualizing

three primary sources of variation. Later we will perform
Hypothesis Tests based on our findings.

At this point we will review classes and causes of distributions that

can also help us screen X’s to perform Hypothesis Tests.
– Normal Distribution
– Non-normality – 4 Primary Classifications
1. Skewness
2. Multiple Modes
3. Kurtosis
4. Granularity

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 34 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 The Normal (Z) Distribution

Characteristics of Normal Distribution (Gaussian curve) are:

– It is considered to be the most important distribution in statistics.
– The total area under the curve is equal to 1.
– The distribution is mounded and symmetric; it extends indefinitely in
both directions approaching but never touching the horizontal axis.
– All processes will exhibit a Normal curve shape if you have pure
random variation (white noise).
– The Z distribution has a Mean of 0 and a Standard Deviation of 1.
– The Mean divides the area in half, 50%
on one side and 50% on
the other side.
– The Mean, Median and
Mode are at the same
data point.

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 35 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Normal Distribution

Why do we care?
– ONLY IF we need accurate estimates of Mean and Standard
Deviation.
• Our theoretical distribution should MOST accurately represent our sample
distribution in order to make accurate inferences about our population.

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 36 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Non-Normal Distributions

1 Skewed 2 Kurtosis

3 Multi-Modal
4 Granularity

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 37 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Skewness Classification

Potential Causes of Skewness

Left Skew Right Skew

60
40
50

Frequency
Frequency

30 40

20 30

20
10
10
0 0
10 15 20 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

1-1 Natural Limits

1-2 Artificial Limits (Sorting)
1-3 Mixtures
1-4 Non-Linear Relationships
1-5 Interactions
1-6 Non-Random Patterns Across Time

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 38 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Mixed Distributions 1-3

Mixed Distributions occur when data comes from multiple

sources that are supposed to be the same yet are not.

Machine A Machine B
Operator A Operator B
Payment Method A Payment Method B Combined
Interviewer A Interviewer B

Sample A + Sample B
=

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 39 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 1-4 Non-Linear Relationships

Non-Linear Relationships occur when the X and Y scales are

different for a given change in X.

10

Y
5
Marginal Distribution
of Y

0 50 100
X

Marginal Distribution
of X
LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 40 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 1-5 Interactions

Interactions occur when two inputs interact with each other to have
a larger impact on Y than either would by themselves.

Interaction Plot for Process Output Aerosol Hairspray

On
35
Room Temperature

Spray
Off
30

25
No Spray

No Fire With Fire

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 41 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 1-6 Time Relationships / Patterns

The distribution is dependent on time.

Marginal Distribution 30

25
of Y

20

10 20 30 40 50

Time

Often seen when tooling requires “warming up”, tool wear,

chemical bath depletions, ambient temperature effect on tooling.

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 42 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Non-Normal Right (Positive) Skewed

Moment coefficient of Skewness will be close to zero for symmetric

distributions, negative for left Skewed and positive for right Skewed.

Summary for Pos Skew

A nderson-D arling N ormality Test
A -S quared 46.49
P -V alue < 0.005
M ean 70.000
S tD ev 10.000
V ariance 100.000
S kew ness 2.41707
Kurtosis 6.93041
N 500
M inimum 62.921
1st Q uartile 63.647
M edian 65.695
3rd Q uartile 72.821
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 M aximum 130.366
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
69.121 70.879
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
65.260 66.501
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals
9.416 10.662
Mean

Median

65 66 67 68 69 70 71

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 43 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Kurtosis

Kurtosis refers to the shape of the tails.

– Leptokurtic
– Platykurtic
• Different combinations of distributions causes the resulting
overall shapes.

Leptokurtic Platykurtic
Peaked with Long-Tails Flat with Short-Tails

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 44 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Platykurtic

Multiple Means shifting over time produces a plateau

of the data as the shift exhibits this shift.
Causes:

2-1. Mixtures: (Combined

Summary for Flat
Data from Multiple
A nderson-Darling N ormality Test
A -S quared 1.74
Processes)
P -V alue < 0.005 Multiple Set-Ups
M ean 52.330 Multiple Batches
S tDev 5.099
V ariance 26.001 Multiple Machines
S kew ness 0.033260
Kurtosis -0.988765
Tool Wear (over time)
N 182
M inimum 41.978 2-2 Sorting or Selecting:
1st Q uartile 48.006
M edian 52.223 Scrapping product that falls
3rd Q uartile 56.729
44 48 52 56 60 64 M aximum 64.140
outside the spec limits
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
51.585 53.076 2-3 Trends or Patterns:
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
50.932 53.741
Lack of Independence in the
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tDev data (example: tool wear,
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals
4.624 5.685 chemical bath)
Mean

Median 2-4 Non Linear

51.0 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0 53.5 54.0 Relationships
Chemical Systems
LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 45 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Leptokurtic

Distributions overlaying each other that have very

different variance can cause a Leptokurtic distribution.
Causes:
Summary for LongTail 2-1. Mixtures: (Combined Data
A nderson-Darling N ormality Test
from Multiple Processes)
A -S quared 3.59
P -V alue < 0.005 Multiple Set-Ups
M ean 51.389 Multiple Batches
S tDev 12.998
V ariance 168.960 Multiple Machines
S kew ness -0.06752 Tool Wear (over time)
Kurtosis 3.08271
N 125
M inimum 0.813 2-2 Sorting or Selecting:
1st Q uartile 46.488
M edian 52.017 Scrapping product that falls
3rd Q uartile 55.620
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 M aximum 94.795
outside the spec limits
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
49.088 53.691 2-3 Trends or Patterns:
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
50.584 52.666
Lack of Independence in the
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tDev data (example: tool wear,
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals
11.562 14.845 chemical bath)
Mean

Median 2-4 Non Linear Relationships

49 50 51 52 53 54 Chemical Systems

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 46 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Multiple Modes 3

Reasons for Multiple Modes:

3-1 Mixtures of distributions (most likely)

3-2 Lack of independence – trends or patterns

3-3 Catastrophic failures (example: testing

voltage on a motor and the motor shorts
out so we get a zero reading)

Now that’s my kind of mode!!

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 47 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Bimodal Distributions

2 Different Distributions
- 2 different machines
- 2 different operators
- 2 different administrators

Summary for BiModal

A nderson-D arling N ormality T est
A -S quared 27.11
P -V alue < 0.005
M ean 79.570
S tD ev 32.385
V ariance 1048.785
S kew ness 0.00716
Kurtosis -1.63184
N 500
M inimum 21.341
1st Q uartile 48.265
M edian 83.772
3rd Q uartile 110.379
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 M aximum 142.391
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
76.724 82.416
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
62.354 97.233
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev
9 5 % C onfidence Inter v als
30.494 34.527
Mean

Median

60 70 80 90 100

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 48 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Extreme Bi-Modal (Outliers)

Summary for ExtremeBiModal

A nderson-Darling N ormality Test
A -S quared 22.88
P -V alue < 0.005
M ean 58.487
S tDev 21.751
V ariance 473.106
S kew ness -0.59479
Kurtosis -1.03403
N 385
M inimum 19.987
1st Q uartile 26.920
M edian 66.161
3rd Q uartile 74.140
30 45 60 75 90 105 M aximum 103.301
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
56.308 60.667
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
63.410 67.793
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tDev
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals
20.315 23.406
Mean

Median

55.0 57.5 60.0 62.5 65.0 67.5

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 49 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Bi-Modal – Multiple Outliers

Summary for Multiple Outliers

A nderson-Darling N ormality Test
A -S quared 20.90
P -V alue < 0.005
M ean 26.251
S tDev 4.845
V ariance 23.477
S kew ness 3.17250
Kurtosis 9.11483
N 108
M inimum 22.629
1st Q uartile 24.128
M edian 25.053
3rd Q uartile 25.971
24 28 32 36 40 44 M aximum 46.000
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
25.326 27.175
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
24.836 25.297
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tDev
9 5 % C onfidence Inter vals
4.274 5.594
Mean

Median

25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 50 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Granular 4

Granular data is easy to see in a Dot Plot.

– Use Caution!
• It looks “Normal” but it is only symmetric and not Continuous.
– Causes:
• 4-1 Measurement system resolution (Gage R&R)
• 4-2 Categorical (step-type function) data

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 51 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Normal Example

Notice the contrast to the previous page!

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 Conclusions Regarding Distributions

Non-normal Distributions are not BAD!!!

Non-normal Distributions can give more Root Cause

information than Normal data (the nature of why…)

Understanding what the data is telling us is KEY!!!

What do you want to know ???

Find the key….

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 53 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
 Summary

At this point you should be able to:

• Perform a Multi-Vari Analysis

• Create and interpret a Multi-Vari Graph

• Identify when a Multi-Vari Analysis is applicable

• Interpret how Skewed data looks

• Explain how data distributions become Non-normal when they

are really Normal

LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 54 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
IASSC Certified Lean Six Sigma Green Belt (ICGB)

The International Association for Six Sigma Certification (IASSC) is a Professional

Association dedicated to growing and enhancing the standards within the Lean Six Sigma
Community. IASSC is the only independent third-party certification body within the Lean Six
Sigma Industry that does not provide training, mentoring and coaching or consulting
services. IASSC exclusively facilitates and delivers centralized universal Lean Six Sigma
Certification Standards testing and organizational Accreditations.

The IASSC Certified Lean Six Sigma Green

Belt (ICGB) is an internationally recognized
professional who is well versed in the Lean
Six Sigma Methodology who both leads or
supports improvement projects. The Certified
Green Belt Exam, is a 3 hour 100 question
proctored exam.

Learn about IASSC Certifications and Exam options at…

http://www.iassc.org/six-sigma-certification/
LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC