ANP101 – SAP BusinessObjects Predictive

Analytics – What You Really Need To Know

Public
Speakers

Las Vegas, Sept 19 - 23 Bangalore, October 5 - 7 Barcelona, Nov 8 - 10

Ashish C. Morzaria Ashish C. Morzaria Ashish C. Morzaria

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Disclaimer

The information in this presentation is confidential and proprietary to SAP and may not be disclosed without the permission of
SAP. Except for your obligation to protect confidential information, this presentation is not subject to your license agreement or
any other service or subscription agreement with SAP. SAP has no obligation to pursue any course of business outlined in this
presentation or any related document, or to develop or release any functionality mentioned therein.

This presentation, or any related document and SAP's strategy and possible future developments, products and or platforms
directions and functionality are all subject to change and may be changed by SAP at any time for any reason without notice.
The information in this presentation is not a commitment, promise or legal obligation to deliver any material, code or functionality.
This presentation is provided without a warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to, the implied
warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement. This presentation is for informational
purposes and may not be incorporated into a contract. SAP assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in this
presentation, except if such damages were caused by SAP’s intentional or gross negligence.

All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially
from expectations. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only
as of their dates, and they should not be relied upon in making purchasing decisions.

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Agenda

Predictive analytics in the digital economy

 Why predictive analytics is your competitive differentiator

SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics

 Portfolio overview and capabilities

Principles of predictive
 How predictive analytics improves future outcomes
 The missing link in most predictive implementations

Additional topics
 Predictive options in SAP HANA
 Predictive in Big Data – SAP’s Native Spark Modelling

Final Thoughts and Q&A

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© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. Public 5
 Create a Consume a
predictive predictive
model model

In these examples,
the value of the predictive model is
delivered in the business context
of the consumer.

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In the new digital economy, everything is digitized and tracked

Everything we touch…

Every good we purchase…

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 Opportunities ….. Challenges

1 1 1

Massive Analytical Ever Faster

Amount of Data Skill Gap Decision Cycle
Conversations 30 Milliseconds Algorithmic trade

“Demand for deep 20 Minutes

8 Hour
30 Seconds Airline operations

10 Seconds
Call center inquires

analytical talent in the US 8 Hour

1 Day
1 Minute

1 Minute
Re-compute Finance

could be 50 to 60% 1 Day

3 Days
10 Minutes

10 Minutes
Supply chain updates

Document Transfers

greater than its projected 3 Days

3 Days 2 Minutes
45 Seconds Phone Activation

supply by 2018”
Refresh data warehouse
1 Week 1 Hour
Trade settlement
5 Days 1 Day

3 Weeks 1 Day Build-to-order

7 6 5 4
10 10 10 10 1,000 100 10 1 0 Seconds
Transactions Machines Dun & Bradstreet and McKinsey Global Institute analysis

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The digital economy to your advantage…

Operational
Customers margin Growth

How do you personalize each How do you improve your performance How do you create new products,
interaction across all channels? across thousands of processes and decisions? services, and business models?

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Those embracing digital transformation are outperforming

+9% +26% +12%

Revenue Market Impact on
creation valuation profitability

Early Adopters Are Winning

In the next 10 years, 40% of the S&P 500 will no longer

exist if they do not keep up with these technology trends*

* “The Digital Advantage: how digital leaders outperform their peers in every industry”: CapGemini and MIT Sloan

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 68%
The Power of organizations using predictive analytics
realized competitive advantages.
of Predictive
Unlocks Big Value
The Need For Predictive
• Use historical data to predict behaviors or outcomes 60%
• Answer “what-if” questions of fraudulent transactions have stopped
using predictive.
• Ensure employees have what they need
to make optimized decisions
• Fully leverage customer relationships
with better insight
28%
• Make meaningful sense of Big Data reduction in customer churn rate with predictive.

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Solve real business problems
By optimizing resources and improving margins

SALES & FRAUD FINANCE OTHER

MARKETING OPERATIONS AND RISK AND HR SECTORS

 Churn Reduction • Predictive Maintenance • Fraud and Abuse Detection • Cash Flow and Forecasting • Life Sciences
 Customer Acquisition • Load Forecasting • Claim Analysis • Budgeting Simulation • Health Care
 Lead Scoring • Inventory/Demand • Collection and Delinquency • Profitability and • Media
 Product Recommendation Optimization • Credit Scoring Margin Analysis • High Education
 Campaign Optimization • Product Recommendation • Operational Risk Modeling • Financial Risk Modeling • Public Sector /
 Customer Segmentation • Price Optimization • Crime Threat • Employee Retention Social Sciences
 Next Best Offer/Action • Manufacturing Process Opt. • Revenue and Loss Analysis Modeling • Construction and Mining
• Quality Management • Succession Planning • Travel and Hospitality
• Yield Management • Big Data and IoT

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 Accurate results in days,
not weeks
Accelerate your work with automated
techniques

Why SAP BusinessObjects Machine learning at scale

Predictive Analytics Maintain peak performance
for thousands of models
Is a Game Changer

Insights where people interact

Embed predictive in business processes
and applications

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What if you could focus on ROI
instead of TCO?

Solve business pains:

• Improve customer satisfaction
• Reduce costs
• Increase sales

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CUSTOMER SUCCESS: COVENANT TRANSPORT

Reducing Driver Turnover

and Creating a Safer Workforce

Covenant Transport was plagued by the same 100% driver

turnover rate as their entire industry. When they turned to
SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics, not only were they
able to improve the overall safety of their trucking operations,
they were able focus on talent development and retention. By
better understanding their workforce and knowing why drivers
leave they were able to anticipate when they might leave in
the future to help keep the best staff possible.

Results:

15% reduction in driver turnover in first year

<6 months to ROI payoff

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Why now?

Better Decision Making

A B C

Understanding Customers

SAP
Predictive Improving Performance
Analytics
Driving New Revenues

Acting in Real Time

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SAP BusinessObjects
Predictive Analytics

Public
SAP Predictive Analytics

Data Data Predictive Operational., Predictive

Acquisition Preparation Modeling Managing Consumpt.

• Support of all • Data Manager • Automated • Predictive • “In-product”

major Analytics Factory • SAP Business
databases (Modeler) • Scoring Intelligence clients
• Expert Analytics • Embedded in SAP
HANA Applications
• SAP Hana Cloud
Platform predictive
services

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 i
ANP860
Road Map Q&A: SAP BusinessObjects

Predictive Reimagined for the Digital Enterprise Predictive Analytics

i
ANP160
SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics
101: Discovery Session (2 hr Hands on)

i
ANP600
Start Developing with SAP HANA Cloud
SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics Predictive Services (CodeJam)

Predictive Factory

HCP predictive services

SAP HCP

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Automated Analytics and Expert Analytics Personas

Business Analysts
Data Scientists
Citizen Data Scientists

Tracy, the business analyst uses Automated Analytics (and APL) John, the data scientist uses Expert Analytics (and PAL/R)

rom a Identify
Start f Handle Start from a outliers
ss g
busine missin data science
on and values Identify
questi problem and
a correlations
follow
comple nd
te choose an
-e algorithm and
end-to
s
proces set its
parameters
Automated Analytics Interface Expert Analytics Interface

• Guided (wizard-based) automated predictive process • Canvas-based drag-and-drop model creation

• Automated model creation, maintenance, and deployment • Customization of predictive process and parameters
• Powerful and re-usable data preparation • Leverage over 8,500 R-algorithms
• Seamless integration with SAP HANA’s APL • Integrated ensemble modelling and model comparison
• Native Spark Modelling for automated predictive on Big Data techniques
• Extended support for SAP HANA PAL, APL, and R integration
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Automated Analytics approach for the Business Analyst

Choose your Automate predictive analytics workflow Automate model

business question Run → Performance Detection
Create → Train→ Apply → Embed Scoring
→ Retrain

Automation of Predictive Workflow

Automated SAP PA engine

Analytics (RDBMS, Spark)

SAP HANA APL SAP HANA

Predictive
Factory

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 The SAP difference

Derived
Identified

Business
Identified
Problem

Business
Write Code
Problem

Results
Results
Aggregate Identify Features
+ Develop Debrief for
Prepare Relevant
Models models Database
Data Variables Encode Execution
Variables

What SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics does for automation:

Data Manager: Auto-algorithms: Semantic Auto-algorithms: Model Debriefing: In-Database Apply:
Generate SQL for Make this section Understanding: All descriptive statistics
Classification, Automated SQL
HANA obsolete Numbers, strings, dates regression, clustering, available generation
Hadoop: Categorical, continuous, times series, key Key influencers, Optimized with data
textual influencers decision trees, manager
HIVE, SparkSQL Link analysis, segments, optimal
Date parts Hadoop:
All major databases recommendations binning and banding
Composite variables HIVE, SparkSQL,
(example: position from HANA (APL) Communities
Streaming (Java)
latitude and longitude) Hadoop (Scala)

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Modeling Process – High Level

2. Produce
candidate models

Variable Reduction Model

1
Model 3. Evaluate models
to choose the best
2
Model
one
Estimation
1. Cut ADS
Sub-set N
Cutting
Strategy
Validation
Sub-set For Information Only!
Analytic
al No Need To Memorize
Data Set
4. Test the performance of the
Test selected best model
Sub-set

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 The Predictive Process
Traditional Process
Derived
Identified

Business
Identified
Problem

Business
Write Code
Problem

Results
Results
Aggregate Identify Features
+ Develop Debrief for
Prepare Relevant
Models models Database
Data Variables Encode Execution
Variables

Typical approach to
predictive automation:
Stack several algorithms and
“hope for the best”

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 Increasing Revenue and
Customer Loyalty
at the Same Time

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 Cox Communications:
Supercharging Customer Relationships

• Precise, accurate, and fast polling of 10 million observations and 800 variables
to identify customer-related issues, including:
• Propensity to purchase
• Likelihood of churn
• Prospective credit risks

• Created personalized offers more quickly and accurately for more than 6 million
subscribers across 28 regions
• Doubled direct mail campaign conversions

14% 28% 80% 42x

More products per Reduction in Reduction in model Greater throughput for
household customer churn rate creation time analysts (40 to 1,680
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Principles of Predictive
High level view of how we create predictive models and apply them to new scenarios

Public
How Does Predictive Analytics Work?

Automatically detect
Apply predictive
Historical data patterns to determine
model to new data
recurrent behaviors
 Customers
 Propensity  Marketing
 Products
 Risk  Finance
 Transactions
 Fraud  Maintenance
 Equipments

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 “Data scientists spend from 50% to 80% of their
time mired in this more mundane labor of collecting
and preparing unruly digital data, before it can be
explored for useful nuggets.”

The New York Times: “For Big-Data Scientists, ‘Janitor Work’ Is Key Hurdle to Insights”
August, 17, 2014

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Key Concept – For Advanced Analytics “Big” means “Wide”

1 Raw Sensor Data

2 Derived Attributes/Features

3 Ultra-Wide Analytical Dataset

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Why Big Data for Predictive?
Wider Data Sets Build Stronger Models Complex Aggregates

Millions of Thousands of Variables

Rows ?

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Why Big Data for Predictive?
Lift with Simple Aggregates
20 Variables
-- Demographics
Demographics // Account
Account Information
Information
-Simple
-Simple Aggregates
Aggregates (e.g.
(e.g. Account
Account Balance,
Balance, Total
Total Usage)
Usage)

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Why Big Data for Predictive?
Lift with Complex Aggregates
100 Variables
-- Pivoting
Pivoting Transactions
Transactions (e.g.
(e.g. Calls
Calls by
by Type)
Type)
-- Time-Sensitive
Time-Sensitive Aggregates
Aggregates (e.g.
(e.g. Calls
Calls by
by Week)
Week)

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Why Big Data for Predictive?
Lift with Social Network Analysis
200 Variables
-- Social
Social Network
Network Analysis
Analysis (e.g.
(e.g. Calls
Calls in
in First
First Circle)
Circle)
-- Community
Community Detection
Detection (e.g.
(e.g. Community
Community Churn
Churn Rate)
Rate)

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 Automated Machine Learning
brings prediction with
clicks not code

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Demo

Public
Sshhh… Predictive’s Big Secret
Model Automation with Predictive Factory

Public
The Predictive Process with SAP Predictive Analytics

Model
Management

Maintain
Question

Control
PA INDUSTRIALIZES
DataSource
Design PREDICTIVE
Execute RESULTS PRODUCTION
Manipulation Manipulation
Deploy Results
DATA MANAGER Automated
Modeling
Consumption
Model
GET THE DATASETS Creation
AUTOMATICALLY
WHEN NEEDED
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 The Predictive Factory

• Manage the lifecycle of predictive models created in

SAP Predictive Analytics
• Automatically retrain, apply, test for deviation and
forecast your models.
• Robustly embed Predictive Analytics at scale in
business processes.

Key benefits
• Manage thousands of models easily and robustly
• Automate model refresh and application
• No scripting needed
• Multi-User, collaborative experience

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Predictive Factory Features

Segmented Modelling
• Take a dataset with thousands of segments. e.g.
Retail outlets, market segments, geographies,
products, machines ….
• Build a model for one segment using Automated
Modeler. Import the Model into Predictive Factory
• Segment the model in Predictive Factory to build
models for every other segment with the same
model parameters and configuration
Sales
• Scalable to thousands of segments
North
EMEA APAC MEE
• Supports Time Series in 3.0 America

Product Product Product

1 2 3
External Commands
• Run Data Preparation using external tools Q1
Forecast
Q2
Forecast
Q1
Forecast
Q2
Forecast
• Run external, non PA Predictive Models Build thousands of models
in a single operation

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SAP Predictive Analytics Predictive Factory
Every Model at Peak Performance

1. Model and data deviation detection:

 Continuously check for data deviations that could invalidate a model
 Alert you when model deviations detected and can auto-retrain (and optionally apply the model automatically)

2. Model retraining/refresh:
• Use original modelling parameters to recreate/retrain models on schedule or trigger
• Ensure scoring is always using the most efficient model possible

3. Model re-application:
 Apply models directly to datasets in source databases and re-score all values
 Apply scoring equations into source systems with SQL, code, or PMML

4. Model scheduling:
 Enable recurring tasks using complex application scenarios (check deviations, alert, retrain model, apply..)
 Console with full task management and history

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SAP HANA
What are the SAP Advanced Analytics Solutions for SAP HANA?

Public
Real-Time reinvents Analytics

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Traditional Predictive Analytics

Predictive
Data Storage Analytic Tools
Application

Copy data from Extract data from Download Transfer

transactional and storage, convert & analytical results & predictive scoring
external sources clean for analytics load into predictive results into database
analytics application

What if you can combine "automated capabilities" with "all calculations done in memory

database without requiring data extraction“?
This presentation and SAP‘s strategy and possible future developments are subject to change and may be changed by SAP at any time for any reason without notice.
© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. This document is provided without a warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a Customer 44
particular purpose, or non-infringement
SAP Predictive Analytics and SAP HANA

SAP Predictive Analytics offers advanced SAP HANA integration and provides in-database
and in-memory computing through dedicated SAP HANA Predictive Libraries : SAP
Predictive
• Create and apply models on very large datasets within SAP HANA or in a Hadoop storage Analytics
transparently connected to SAP HANA.
• Real-time predictions recommendations: integrate predictive models into processes
• Native integration with SAP HANA for ERP and BW, to provide in-applications predictive
modeling.

SAP HANA native libraries and R:

• SAP APL for HANA : the Automated Predictive Library with SAP proprietary algorithms SAP HANA
which automate many tasks for a simplified, quicker and high quality model definition.
• SAP PAL for HANA : the Predictive Analytics Library with HANA native and optimized SAP SAP
implementations of industry standard predictive algorithms. APL PAL
• The R Server enables using any R open source algorithm in the SAP HANA engine.

Technical Whitepaper: Unleash the Power of Predictive Analytics with the SAP HANA Platform
(Also available at www.sap.com/predictive)
This presentation and SAP‘s strategy and possible future developments are subject to change and may be changed by SAP at any time for any reason without notice.
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particular purpose, or non-infringement
APL (Automated Predictive Library)

A for Automated is the Key in APL

SAP HANA APL functions let you use the data-mining capabilities of the Automated Analytics
engine on the datasets stored in SAP HANA.
 
APL comprises the following data mining functions:
 
• Classification/Regression models
• Segmentation/Clustering models
• Time series analysis models
• Recommendation models
• Key Influencers

http://scn.sap.com/community/predictive-analytics/blog/2015/03/02/what-is-the-sap-automated-predictive-library-apl-for-sap-hana
This presentation and SAP‘s strategy and possible future developments are subject to change and may be changed by SAP at any time for any reason without notice.
© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. This document is provided without a warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a Customer 46
particular purpose, or non-infringement
SAP HANA
Real-time in-memory predictive analytics platform

SAP HANA

Automated Predictive
Other Native
Predictive Analysis R-Server
Library Libraries
Library

Automated Predictive Analysis Application Function R Scripts

Predictive Library Library (PAL) Library (AFL)
(APL)

Application Function Library Execution of R scripts via

The predictive analysis Accelerated predictive (AFL) framework allows SAP, high-performing parallelized
capabilities of SAP analysis and scoring with partner, and customers to vector based connection;
Predictive Analytics native in-database develop, deploy, load, and R scripts embedded as part
automated analytics algorithms leverage their own advanced of overall query plan
engine (formerly KXEN) analytic custom functions in
in SAP HANA SAP HANA
SAP Custom Open Source
This presentation and SAP‘s strategy and possible future developments are subject to change and may be changed by SAP at any time for any reason without notice.
© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. This document is provided without a warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a Customer 47
particular purpose, or non-infringement
Predictive in Real Time with Big Data and SAP HANA

Hadoop support In-memory Predictive

For large data sets and data lakes Training and scoring in
SAP HANA

Simple single stack Predictions in

architecture Real Time
End-to-end process stays within
Models into streaming
one platform
processes

Automated Library
Native integration Embedded predictive
Models in to the Business Suite engine
powered by HANA

Advanced Analytics for everybody

Both simple (analyst-friendly) and complex (full data science)
Agile model prototyping combined with advanced algorithms and R
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Predictive and Big Data
Native Spark Modelling

Public
Value proposition – Automated + Big data

Big Data Analytics SAP Predictive Analytics

Code Clicks, Tooling

Big Data Developers

Business Analysts

Data Scientists

Manually Deployed &

Automated Deployment
Monitored

This presentation and SAP‘s strategy and possible future developments are subject to change and may be changed by SAP at any time for any reason without notice.
© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. This document is provided without a warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a Customer 50
particular purpose, or non-infringement
Leverage Hadoop + Spark = big data store + application platform

Processing on a single server Processing on 100’s-1000’s of nodes

Traditional
Native Application
Application

Limited CPU/Memory CPU/Memory scales dynamically

Data Transfer

Database
Hive QL SQL

This presentation and SAP‘s strategy and possible future developments are subject to change and may be changed by SAP at any time for any reason without notice.
© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. This document is provided without a warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a Customer 51
particular purpose, or non-infringement
Existing Process: entire dataset is transferred
Connectivity = SQL only

SAP Predictive Analytics Modeler..

• Pulls in data, processes,
• Pulls in more data, processes…

FULL (Big Data) Dataset BIG Datasets Dataset

dataset is transferred
for processing
Data platform…
Data • power not being leveraged
Big Data Warehouse properly
SQL Engines • just transfers data
010001100100
010001100100
100101001011
100101001011
010001100100
010001100100
RDBMS (Spark SQL,Hive)
100010010101
100010010101
100101001011
100101001011
010001100100
010001100100
010011110101
010011110101
100010010101
100010010101
100101001011
100101001011
010011110101
010011110101
100010010101
100010010101
010011110101
010011110101

This presentation and SAP‘s strategy and possible future developments are subject to change and may be changed by SAP at any time for any reason without notice.
© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. This document is provided without a warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a Customer 52
particular purpose, or non-infringement
With Native Spark Modelling, processing closer to data in Hadoop

SAP Predictive Analytics Native Spark Modelling

• controls the process
Native Spark Modelling

No dataset transfer required!

FULL training dataset
is transferred
Data platform…
• runs the Spark application
• processing close to data
Native Spark Connectivity

This presentation and SAP‘s strategy and possible future developments are subject to change and may be changed by SAP at any time for any reason without notice.
© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. This document is provided without a warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a Customer 53
particular purpose, or non-infringement
Final Thoughts

Public
Accurate results in days, not weeks
For everyone: perfect for Analysts AND Data Scientists

DATA PREPARATION WITH BIG DATA

Create meaningful and reusable Use Hadoop data with automated
data sets techniques directly in Spark

SAP
AUTOMATED ANALYTICS BUSINESSOBJECTS ULTIMATE FLEXIBILITY
Reduce time and skills required PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS FOR ALGORITHMS
to create accurate models with repeatable Use off-the-shelf algorithms or bring
workflow specialized ones – such as R functions

NATIVE IN-MEMORY SOLUTION

SAP HANA optimized for on-the-fly predictive
data processing

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Key links for more information
For customers and partners

Key links

 Roadmaps on SAP Service Marketplace http://service.sap.com/saproadmaps

 SAP Community Network http://scn.sap.com/
 Predictive Analytics Community http://scn.sap.com/community/predictive-analytics
 SAP Predictive Analytics 30 days Trial Download https://www.sap.com/trypredictive
 SAP Predictive Analytics http://go.sap.com/solution/platform-technology/predictive-analytics.html

Where to go to provide product feedback and ideas

 SAP Idea Place https://ideas.sap.com
 Predictive Idea Place https://ideas.sap.com/PredictiveAnalytics
 Influence programs http://service.sap.com/influence

Sign up to our newsletter http://scn.sap.com/docs/DOC-66912

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Further information

Related SAP TechEd sessions:

ANP101 – SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics – What You Really Need To Know
ANP105 – Turning Big Data and IoT into Intelligence You Can Actually Use
ANP108 – Predictive Business Intelligence: Give Your BI the Gift of Foresight
ANP117 – ASUG Influence Council: SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics
ANP160 – SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics 101: Discovery Session (2 HR HANDS-ON)
ANP360 – Integration and Scripting with SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics (2 HR HANDS-ON)
ANP600 – Start Developing with SAP HANA Cloud Platform Predictive Services (CodeJam)
ANP806 – Road Map Q&A: SAP BusinessObjects Predictive Analytics

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Feedback Thanks for attend
ing this session.

Contact information:
Please complete your
Ashish C. Morzaria
session evaluation for Director – Advanced Analytics
a.morzaria@sap.com
ANP101.

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