Population and Development

Discussion point
What is the pattern of population growth in the world?
How does population growth stimulate the development?
Briefly explain in terms of Keynes and Lewis model.
What are the causes of population growth? Will population
continue to increase in the world?
What are the consequences of increasing life expectancy
and aging in the developing world?
Why will the population of underdeveloped countries be
higher in 2050? Why will it decrease in Europe and other
developed countries?
What are the demographic characteristics of Bangladesh?
Case studies: Causes of population growth in Bangladesh
and Population as asset or liability in Bangladesh
Estimated World Population Growth
Through History
Year Estimated Estimated
Population Annual %
Increase
10,000 BC 5,000,000
A.D.I 250,000,000 0.04
1650 545,000,000 0.04
1750 728,000,000 0.29
1950 2,576,000,000 0.91
1970 3,698,000,000 2.09
1980 4,448,000,000 1.76
1990 5,292,000,000 1.73
2000 6,100,000,000 1.69
2010 6,900,000,000 1.10
 World Population Growth Rates and
Doubling Time: A Historical Review

Period Approx. Growth Doubling Time

Rate (%) (Years)
Appearance of man to 0.002 35,000
early historical times
1650-1750 0.3 240
1850-1900 0.6 115
1930-1950 1.0 70
1960-1980 2.3 31
Present (2000) 1.7 43
2010 1.1 64

This is as per the rule of seventy which says;

Doubling Time = 70 / Growth Rate
WORLD POPULATION OUTLOOK 1950-2050

Total population 2010 is 6.90 billion and for 2050 will reach
9.08 billion
In spite of higher population for the future, the growth rate
of the population is expected to fall due to the decline in
fertility rate and the toll taken by the HIV/AIDS pandemic
in some countries.
However, the death rate declined and the causes of death
changed towards Cancer and Cardiovascular diseases.
Fertility rate decline – family planning
Increasing population but decrease in average annual
growth rate. e.g. 1.1% in 2009, but 0.43% to 0% in 2050
 No population explosion after 2050!!
Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150
Millions Billions Billions

100 10

80 8

Population size

Annual Increments

Population size
Annual increments

60 6

40 4

20 2

0 0
2075 2100 2125 2150

Source: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary,
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion,
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm)
Population growth and Development

Population Growth Inhibits

Development
Population stabilizes at the level of subsistence

“Whenever human beings obtain more than

me re subsiste nce, the ir numbe rs go up until
everybody is back at the level of subsiste nce”
- Malthus
 Population Growth and Malthus Theory

Population grows
exponentially, for example,
1-2-4-8-16-32-64.
Food supply grows
arithmetically, for example,
1-2-3-4-5-6.
Therefore, population
will inevitably exceed
food supply.
 Multhus’s Preventive
Check/ Negative Check:

•The chief preventive

check envisaged by
Malthus was that of
"moral restraint.
•It includes later
marriages and abstinence
from sex (Remember
Malthus was writing
before wide spread
contraception!).
 Malthus’s Positive
Check

•Population exceeds
food supply
•It is kept in check by
war, famine, or disease.
•It then drops below the
food supply.
•As the population
recovers, so the cycle
continues.
 Population Growth Stimulates
Development
Keynes and Lewis content population growth
as stimulating development through-

• Creation of “Effective Demand”

• Supply of labour at a chipper wedge

During 18th and 19th Centuries rapid population

growth in developed world contributed to steady
economic growth predicted by Keyes and Lewis
 Causes of population boom

 Malthusian theory says: Population increase when people

come out of subsistence. World is on the track to coming out
of substance, will it go back?
 Insurance theory says: People find a scope of getting
support during crisis time or at the time of insecurity. Do the
aged people in the developing country has insurance
coverage other than children at the late age?
 Portfolio theory says: More options reduce the risk.
Doesn’t more of children reduce the risk of shelter of a father
at a retirement age?
 High infant mortality rate insist people to take more
children as to keep more to averse risk of death.
 Causes of population boom

 Son preference: A parent in a developing country can rely

more on a son for shelter than a daughter as daughter has less
command to take care of father.
 Insignificant child rearing cost: Government provides
incentives for vaccination and health care, free education
materials and scholarships, etc. Are the incentives cut for a
family which has children more than two?
 Weakness in implementing family planning program and
even wrong interpretation in religion
 Sometimes economic benefit of taking more child is more
than taking control measure, which comes relatively
expensive.
Effects of Population Boom

 Increase the rate of poverty

 Fragmentation of agricultural land

Excessive demand for basic needs

 Increase unemployment rate

 Increase income inequality and gender disparity

 Increase the chance of social and political instability

 Create obstacle for implementing development programs

5
 POPULATION OUTLOOK BY REGION
1950-2050

World population growth will be concentrated in

developing countries for the foreseeable future
Population for Asia, Africa, Sub Saharan Africa, Middle
East, North America and South America will increase
substantially
Population for European countries and Former Soviet
Union tends to fall for the foreseeable future
Not much different for the population for Oceania and
Baltic region
 9

POPULATION TRENDS BY REGION FOR 1950-2050

8

6
POPULATION (BILLION)

0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
WORLD LESS DEV. COUNTRIES MOREYEAR
DEV.COUNTRIES SUB SAHARAN AFRICA BALTICS
NORTH AMERICA CARIBBEAN CENTRAL AMERICA CONT. OF SOUTH AMERICA CONTI OF EUROPE
FORMER SOVIET UNION CONTI OF AFRICA MIDDLE EAST ASIA OCEANIA
 Europe is the only world region projected to decline
in population by 2050.
Millions

457
North America
326

Latin
778
America/
Caribbean 549

668 2050
Europe
728 2005

1,941
Africa
885

Asia 5,385
3,875
Ageing and related problem
The world's elderly population (60
+) is the fastest growing age group.
By 2050 about 80% of the elderly
will be living in developing
countries
Elder abuse is on the increase as the
social dynamics change.
 physical,
 psychological,
 emotional,
 financial due to neglect.
 Changing the causes of death

1909 1999

Respiratory Cardiovascular Other TB Diarrhoeal Injuries Cancer

Diseases diseases Infectious Diseases
Diseases

Source: WHO 1999

 Life expectancy trends and Aging
90

Expectation of life at birth (years)

80
More developed
70
World
60
Less developed
50 Least developed

40

30
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Period

Source: Population division of the Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, United States Secretariat
(2003). World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision Highlights. New York: United Nations.
 TOP 10 RANKED MOST POPULATED COUNTRIES
FOR 2003 AND 2050

Rank by Population: 2003 Rank by Population: 2050

Country Rank Country Population

Rank Population
India
China 1 1,601,004,572
1 1,286,975,468
China
2 India 1,049,700,118 2 1,417,630,630
3 United States 290,342,554 United States
3 420,080,587
Indonesia
4 234,893,453 Indonesia
4 336,247,428
5 Brazil 182,032,604
Nigeria
6 Pakistan 150,694,740
5 307,420,055
7 Russia 144,526,278
Bangladesh
8 Bangladesh 138,448,210 6 279,955,405
Nigeria Pakistan
9 Why will the population
133,881,703 of USA
7
continue not decrease?
267,813,495
MIGRATION!!!
Japan Brazil
10 127,214,499 8 228,426,737
 Demographic Profile of Bangladesh as of 2010

 Bangladesh is the 12th densely populated country in the

world, which is about 988 person per square kilometer
 Male and female ratio is 104: 100
 Rural population higher than urban population (73:37)
 Total civilian labor force was about 76 million, About
45 percent labor force is engaged in agricultural activities
 Unemployment rate increased to 5.1 per cent in 2009 that
does not reflect severity, except looking the under-
employment rate of 28.7 per cent. (Total 33.8 percent)
 Per capita income is low in Bangladesh (750 USD)
 Demographics of Bangladesh
Current Population: 158,570,535 (July 2011 est. CIA
World Fact Book)
Population growth rate: 1.292% (2009 est.)
Birth rate: 24.68 births/1,000 population
Death rate: 8 deaths/1,000 population
Life expectancy: 60.25 years
–male: 57.57 years
–female: 63.03 years
Fertility rate: 2.6 children born/woman (2011 est.)
Infant mortality rate: 59.02 deaths/1,000 live births
 Worldwide Distribution of Income-
inequality
World Population Distribution of Income
arrange by income

Richest 20% 82.7%

Second 20%
11.7%
Third 20%
2.3%
Fourth 20%
1.9%
Poorest 20% 1.4%

Source: Walley J, Wright J, and Hubley J (2001)