Inventory and Warehousing: "Minimize Costs While Maintaining Production Output, Quality and Customer Service"
Inventory and Warehousing: "Minimize Costs While Maintaining Production Output, Quality and Customer Service"
inventory
Restricte Quality
d problems Inadequate
informati processing
on flow
Customer Demand: Few More Concepts
The final customer places an order (whip) and order fluctuations build up upstream the supply chain.
Distorted information, or the lack of information, is the main cause of the “bullwhip effect”
,named after the way the amplitude of a whip increases
As expected, babies use diapers at a fairly steady and predictable rate, and retail sales are quite
uniform. But, P&G found that each retailer bases his own orders on his own slightly exaggerated
forecast, thereby distorting the information about real demand. Wholesalers' orders to the P&G
diaper factory fluctuated even more. And P&G’s orders to 3M and other materials suppliers
fluctuated even more.
One of the most important methods of lessening the bullwhip effect is to reduce uncertainty along
the supply chain. This can be achieved by sharing information about customer demand and by
using the same forecasting method e.g. by supplying EPOS data to supplier.
All pictures: internet
Reasons behind Inventory
Dead money
How much inventory to keep
Cost of holding inventory and cost of not holding inventory
1. The cost of money tied up in stock 1. Loss of sales from delay in supply.
2. Fixed storage cost. 2. Loss of goodwill and delayed payment
3. Variable storage cost. from supplier.
4. Inventory management cost. 3. Higher transportation cost.
5. Stock deterioration, loss and 4. Disruption of the production process
obsolescence. leading to higher unit resources cost.
5. Inefficient production scheduling due
to shortage.
6. Quality or specification differences
Role of Inventory Manager
• Integration
• Technology
• Objectives & functions
• Building a inventory management plan
Types of Inventory
Normal Inventory:This is inventory required to support the normal replenishment process under
conditions of certainty. If demand and lead times are consistent, normal inventory is what the
organization needs to meet customers demand at a given point in time. This type of inventory should
generally be as close to zero as possible. However, this may not happen due to transportation,
production or distribution economics of scale.
Safety Inventory: Surplus inventory that a company hold to protect against the uncertainty in demand,
in lead-times and in quality of supply.
Pipeline inventory: Inventory moving from point to point in the material flow is called pipeline inventory.
This type of inventory will either belong to the shipper or to the customer depending on the terms of sale.
Speculative Inventory: This type of inventory is held other than meeting current demand. For example,
the company may decide to buy and stock more than it needs in the event that it forecasts that prices of
material will rise or supplier offers lower price if a large quantity is purchased at one time.
Seasonal Inventory: This type of inventory is accumulated in advance of significant selling session. If the
majority of sales occur in relatively short projects of time, companies may stock seasonal inventory to
stabilize production over a more extended period of time and maintain labor force capacities.
Dead Inventory: Dead or excess inventory is normally considered that exist for more than 12 months.
No one wants this type of inventory, but it is held for a variety of reasons. Sometimes to meet occasional
need of customers, it is kept as a gesture of goodwill.
Stages of Inventory
• Three common stages:
– Raw-material inventory:
inventory that is stored before it
is used in the production process
– Work-in-process inventory:
partially finished inventory that
is within the production process
ABC analysis
Monthly Percent of
Unit cost Sales Dollar Dollar Percent of
Inventory Item ($) (units) Volume ($) Volume SKUs Class
H Bottleneck Critical
Impact/Supply Risk Rating
Routine Leverage
L
H Bottleneck Critical
Routine Leverage
L
• High level of safety stock • Lowest safety stock
• Longest review interval • Short review interval
• Lowest degree of monitoring • High degree of monitoring
& control & control
N
80% of items = 20% of value 20% of items = 80% of value
Expenditures
Inventory management & SCM
• Lean production & JIT
• Agile supply chains- efficient & responsive supply chain
• demand forecasting
7 types of waste in lean –
1. overproduction
2. waiting
3. transporting
4. inappropriate processing
5. unnecessary inventory
6. unnecessary motions.
7. Defects.
Inventory management & SCM-cont’d
• Agile supply chain
a. integration
b. Flexibility.
• Push VS Pull and postponement strategies.
• The importance of reducing variety.
• Inventory in the supply chain
• Holding Inventory “ off site”
a. CMI
b. VMI
c. cross docking operations
• composite lead time and demand estimations
Techniques used to improve certainty of
delivery and lead time estimation
A.Product code
A.01 product sub group
A.01.01 individual product
A.01.01.01 1st variant of individual product
A.01.01.02 2st variant of individual product
Demand forecasting
• Forecasting demand
• Demand forecasting helps predict the amount of inventory a should keep.
Incorrect forecasting can lead to stock-outs, lost orders or cash flow
shortage from excess stock holdings. Demand can flow different patterns.
The key four types of demand patterns are shown below:
– Trend: constant, increasing or reducing. The trend, however, may
change over the long-term.
– Cyclical fluctuations: Demand tends to increase or decrease over
extended periods of time due to business cycles, product life-cycles,
etc.
– Seasonality: influenced by weather, regular events such as holidays,
festivals, or the end or beginning of financial years, etc.
– Random variations: when demand varies from the underlying pattern
due to unforeseen reasons.
ITC
Quantity: Demand characteristics
1. Trend
A) B) C)
• Types of Demand:
– Independent demand
– Dependent demand
• Ways of forecasting demand
– Expert opinion
• Scenario analysis
• Delphi technique
– Market testing
– Quantitative analysis
• Time series analysis (about 5
types)
• Casual methods
– Using computer-based
material planning system
• MRP & MRP 1
• DRP
• ERP
Picture: internet
Quantity: Independent Demand vs. Dependent Demand
Panels of Experts
• Internal experts
• External experts
• Domain experts • Market testing
• Delphi technique • Market surveys
• Focus groups
Accurate
Time-Series Methods Forecasts
Causal Analysis
1) Expert Opinion
Picture: internet
Ways of forecasting demand
2) Market Testing
– Market Testing:
– This needs identifying a sample
of population that a company’s
product or services is aimed
at, and conducting trial sales
for a limited a period of time to
ascertain likely demand.
Picture: internet
Ways of forecasting demand
3) Quantitative Analysis
– Quantitative analysis:
This indicates a series of
techniques that use past data (i.e.
quantities purchased over a
period of time) to generate a
forecast.
– This method assumes that the
past patterns of demand will
continue in the future. They are
appropriate where conditions are
relatively stable.
– They may work well for short-
term forecasts, but tend not to
work so well for making long-
term forecasts.
Picture: internet
Ways of forecasting demand
3.1) Quantitative analysis: Moving straight averages
Quantitative analysis: Moving Moving straight averages:
straight averages:
• This is the most fundamental Period (Year) Demand
mathematical projection quantities
technique.
2007 10
• The average is based on a
specified number of data points, 2008 25
for example, demand over each 2009 30
of the last twelve months or the
last six months. 2010 35
• As each new period goes by, the 2011 50
new data is added to the series
and the oldest is dropped, to Average 30
calculated the new average. This
is why it is called “moving”.
Picture: internet
Ways of forecasting demand
3.2) Quantitative analysis: Moving weighted averages
The Formula:
New forecast = Past forecast + a ( Past forecast error)
Or
New forecast = Past Forecast + a (Actual demand- Past Forecast)
Or
Ft +1 = ft +a (d1-f1)
This formula means is that experiences (as reflected in the past forecast error) is used to
determine the next projection), tempered by the value given to a
The value of a
The value selected for a will normally be between 0.1 and 0.4. The higher the value, the more
notice is taken of recent demand. However, high values will also be more likely to produce
unstable projection, which incorrectly respond to random noise in the data.
Picture: internet
Ways of forecasting demand
3.3) Quantitative analysis: Moving exponential weighted averages- Cont’d
Let us look at the example of how to apply the method of exponentially weighted forecasts. In the case
illustrated below, the value given to a = 0.2. Period 1 (where the earlier demand forecast was 50) has
just been completed. Using the recently obtained data on actual demand for the period (60), a past
forecast error of + 10 has been established.
Period (t) 1
Past forecast f1 50
Actual demand d1 60
Forecast error (d1-f1) +10
New forecast 52
In period 2, the previous forecast, thus, repeating the cycle. During this period, let us
assume that actual demand turns out to be 72, resulting in a forecasting error of+20
Period (t) 1 2
Past forecast f1 50 52
Actual demand d1 60 72
Forecast error (d1-f1) +10 +20
New forecast 52 56
D= a- {bxp}
D= the forecasted demand (i.e. dependent variable)
a= a constant (also called intercept) which expresses the value that the dependent variable
will have if the independent variable – in this case price- is equal to zero. We can assume
that, as per past experience, if the bottles are given free, this would be equal to the
maximum production capacity of the company. Suppose in this case it is 2 million per month.
B= the slope (or regression coefficient) which expresses the nature of the causal relationship
between the independent variable. Suppose demand drops by 40000 bottles per month for
every increase of $0.10 in the price of bottle i.e. a drop of 400,000 bottles for every
increase of $ 1.
P= the price of soft drink (i.e. independent variable)
Determine what will be level of demand, if price is $1.25:
D= 2,000,000- {400,000 x 1.25} = 1,500,000
*Causal means relating to cause and effect
Ways of forecasting demand
5)Demand Forecasting: Multiple Linear Regression
For instance, the bottling company may know from past experience that every
decrease of 1 degree C in average monthly temperature (t) from a maximum
temperature of 35 degree C causes demand of its soft drink to decrease by 30,000
bottles per month. It can then use the following formula to forecast demand if its
price will be $1 per bottle and the average temperature is exceeded to be 29
degree C (i.e 6 degree below the maximum)
D= a- {b1xp} – {(b2Xt)
Cost
Flexibility
Service level
Response time
Extensions
To extend our example suppose that
each leg is made up from two
components (X and Y). Two units
of X and 3 units of Y are needed
for one leg and the lead time is 1
week. Then our BOM is
BOM: Spare parts of two products: Example 2
Cooking pot for open fire Cooking pot for open fire with space bar
Product 04
Product 05
Inputs Outputs
No
R. M. Store B.O.M
Yes
Raw
Materi
al in
stock F.G.
No Warehouse
Yes
Sales
Purchase Invoice
Vendor
Order
Production
Material Requirement Planning: Flow Chart 2
MPS is a
Aggregate Plan manufacturing plan
which specifies how
Ac
many completed units
tu
of the end item are to
al
Master Production Schedule
t
as
O
(MPS) made and when they
rd
ec are to be produced
er
r “Drives” the mrp & the operation
Fo
s
s by indicating the timing and
a le quantity of the end item to
S be made
Suppose ABC Company receives order for 100 Uni Doll (Toy) which to be
delivered in 9th week, the MRP would be as follows:
eks
Push-fit-wheels Required date 2we 400 PO 2 weeks
2-1200-03 Order Release Date 400
Forecast Demand 200 210 220 200 180 200 210 160
Shipment on Order (in 500 500 500 500 500
transit)
Projected Stock on Hand 195 495 285 565 365 185 485 775 615
• Methods are-
• First in first out(FIFO)
• Last in first out(LIFO)
• Weighted average costing.
• Standard costing
• Replacement costing.
Inventory Replenishing System
Example: If rate of demand per day is 200 tons and average lead-time is
10 days and company decides to keep 3 days usages as safety stock;
what will be the Re-order level quantity?
Therefore, Re-order level would be = (200 tons X 10 days) + (200 tons X
3 days) = 2,600 tons
ITC M11:U4:4.5-2
Fixed
interval, Periodic review systems - formula to calculate the order size:
variable
quantity
Order size =
(Demand over the review interval + demand to cover lead-time) –
(Actual stock) – (Pipeline stock) + (Safety stock)
Example: If rate of demand per day is 200 tons and average lead-
time is 10 days, and company decides to keep 3 days usages as
safety stock, review interval becomes 15 days, and currently actual
stocks are 900 tons and 800 tons are in pipeline; what will be the Re-
order quantity?
Therefore, Re-order level would be = (200 tons X 15 days) + (200
tons X10 days) – (900 tons) – (800 tons) + (200 tons X 3 days) =
3,900 tons
ITC M11:U4:4.5-6
Inventory: Demand-driven lean supply systems
M11:U4:4.5-8
Inventory: Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)
The model was originally developed by F.W. Haris in 1913, though R.H. Wilson is
credited for his in-depth analysis of the method
EOQ is a model that defines the optimal quantity to order that minimizes total
variable cost required to order and hold inventory
By following EOQ, we would be able to minimize the sum of ordering costs and
the inventory carrying costs to cover the demand for a particular period.
Too many orders will incur excessive ordering costs, while too few orders will
cause high inventory holding costs
In order to make EOQ, we need to make balances of two sets of costs:
Inventory holding costs
Ordering costs
Cost associated with inventory
• Ordering costs
• Price discount costs
• Storage and handling costs
• Stock out costs
• Interest or opportunity cost
• Working capital costs of inventory
• Obsolescence costs
• Production inefficiency costs
• However, in most cases, while we calculate, we consider following three types of
expenditures as inventory holding costs:
– Working capital cost
– Storage cost
– Obsolescence risk costs
• We also consider following two types of expenditures as ordering costs:
– Administrative costs of placing the order
– Communication costs (with suppliers, trans. and other related parties)
Inventory: Holding cost calculation
Total cost = PiQ CoD Demand (D) = 1000 units per Minimum
+ year
total cost
2 Q Unit purchase cost (P) = $5
Inventory carrying cost (i) = 20%
Cost per order © = $20
ITC M11:U4:4.6-7
Deriving the EOQ formula
As Q is the quantity per order and D is the demand over the period,
the average inventory = Q and the number of orders D
2 Q
The inventory holding cost (H) = (purchase cost) x (% carrying cost) x (average inventory)
Therefore,
PiQ
H=
2
The ordering cost (O) = (the cost per order) x (the number of orders)
Therefore, Co x D
O=
Q
Since EOQ will be found where the inventory holding costs are equal to the ordering cost, i.e
• The reorder level and re order point depend on the order lead
time and rate of demand.
400
Re-order
level
Inventory level
200 Re-
order
point
2 3 4 time
Conclusion