417 Biotech 053
417 Biotech 053
What is Biotechnology?
bio—the use of biological processes; and techno
logy—to solve problems or make useful products.
Others
Typical Value Chain of a
Pharmaceutical Product using
Biotechnology
Discovery of Marketing of
the Product the Product
Typical Biotech vs.
Pharmaceuticals Companies
Biotech Pharmaceutical
s
Cap Size Small Big
Balance Sheet Burn Cash ( - ) Strong Cash inflow
/Cash Flow
Cost R&D R&D, Manufacturing.
Marketing
Financing Almost all Equity Debt & Equity mixed
Net Income Negative Positive
Pipeline Strong Moderate/Weak
Dividend None Moderate - Strong
Market
Arthritis
46 million adults (non-institutionalized) in the U.S. (2003)
21% of adults (non-institutionalized) in the U.S. (2003)
Cancer
23 million suffering worldwide. Estimated of 1.37 million people in the US will be
diagnosed with cancer in 2005
about 1 in 3 lifetime risk; 38% of women and 43% of men
The average cost of cancer treatment is well over $100,000 per person.
Estimated $280 billion spent on treatment drugs for cancer annually. More than $100
Billions in US
Diabetes
Estimated 18.2 million people in the United States, or 6.3% of the population (2005)
165 million cases worldwide (2003)
$132 billion spent in direct and indirect costs in America (2002)
Heart Disease
25 million adults in the US
Heart disease and stroke cost US around $214 billion annually. ($115 billion direct) (2002)
i sk
o r R
aj acto
M F
r Porter’s Competitive Force
Political & Legal Forces
• FDA
External Force New Entrants
Barriers: Technology, Risk,
Fixed Cost
LOW
Power of Suppliers
Biotech equipment firms
ID
LOW-MID Power of Buyers
M
Competition mainly on
function/quality instead of
price
US Regulatory Body - FDA
Food and Drug Administration
Duration: 1 to 3 years
Sample size: less than 100 patients
Test on: Healthy volunteers
If passed this Phase, chances of the product reaching
to the market will be: ~30%
Begins to analysis and develop the drugs safety
profile
How the drug is absorbed, metabolized and excreted
Phase II
Duration: ~2 years
Sample size: 100 – 300 patients
Test on: volunteers who suffer from the
disease
If passed this Phase, chances of the product
reaching to the market will be: ~60%
To evaluate the drug's safety and assess side effects
Establishes the optimal dosage of the drug
Phase III
Examples
DNA and RNA sequences
Proteins, enzymes, antibiotics
Antibodies, antigens
Micro-organisms, cell lines, hybrids
Phase IV
-S&P 500
-AMEX
Biotech
-NASDAQ
Tech Bust
Industry Financials
U.S. Biotech Industry Statistics: 1994–2004*
Year 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994
Sales* 33.3 28.4 24.3 21.4 19.3 16.1 14.5 13 10.8 9.3 7.7
Revenues 46.0 39.2 29.6 29.6 26.7 22.3 20.2 17.4 14.6 12.7 11.2
R&D 19.8 17.9 20.5 15.7 14.2 10.7 10.6 9.0 7.9 7.7 7.0
Expense
R&D/ $0.59 $0.63 $0.84 $0.73 $0.74 $0.66 $0.73 $0.69 $0.73 $0.83 $0.91
$ Sales
Net Loss 6.4 5.4 9.4 4.6 5.6 4.4 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.1 3.6
No. of 330 314 318 342 339 300 316 317 294 260 265
Public
Companies
No. of 1,444 1,473 1,466 1,457 1,379 1,273 1,311 1,274 1,287 1,308 1,311
Companies
Employees 187,5 177,0 194,6 191,0 174,0 162,0 155,0 141,0 118,0 108,0 103,0
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
*Amounts are U.S. dollars in billions.
Sources: Ernst & Young LLP, annual biotechnology industry reports, 19932005.
Financial data based primarily on fiscal-year financial statements of publicly traded companies.
Industry Financials
Biotech Industry Net Loss / $ Sales
$0. 50
$0. 45
$0. 47 $0. 43 $0. 39
$0. 40
$0. 44
$0. 35 $0. 29 $0. 35
$0. 30
$0. 25
$0. 28 $0. 21
$0. 27 $0. 20
$0. 15
$0. 19 $0. 19
Towards Breakeven $0. 10
$-
19 94 1995 1996 1997 1 998 1999 2 000 2001 20 02 2003 2004
Industry Ratios
Market P/E ROE Long-term Net Prof P/B P/FCF
Cap % Debt/Equity it Margi (mrg)
n% (mrg)
From Yahoo Finance Nov 10, 2005
Regulatory difficulties
No clear regulatory guidelines to permit the production
of generic biologics in the US Two challenges
1. How to prove that a generic biologic is chemically and
therapeutically equivalent to the original?
2. Who is the proper authority regarding the bi
o-generics?
– The law that is written to regulate generic dru
gs does not include bio-generic
Generic competition
Bio-generics are very
likely to come in the
future
BUT they most likely
will face stricter pre-
approval testing
requirements than
chemically based generics
More costly to produce
and therefore less price
difference between
original & generic
Changing Social & Legal
Environment
Pressure from the public and governments wor
ldwide to contain drug prices
In Sept 2004, Merck’s Blockbuster, Vioxx, w
as pulled off the market
Studies found the drug to increase the risk of he
art attacks and strokes if used longer than 18 mo
nths
Pfizer's Bextra, which is in the same drug class
(Cox-2 inhibitors) was also dropped out later
So far, ~4,000 lawsuits has filed against Merck o
n Vioxx
Investors panicked over closer scrutiny and tight
er regulation towards the pharmaceutical and biot
ech industry
Social & Legal Environment:
Drug Safety Issues
The Downside
Cash burning biotech are vulnerable to higher testing cost
and delay in the approval process
The Upside
Biotech generally focus on life-threatening disease, where
side-effects are more tolerable
New Technology can evaluate safety earlier in the
development process and even prior to clinical trials
E.g. Pharmacogenomics
Successful Product(s)
Best to have one or more established drug already genera
ting cash for the business
Solvency
1. MUST have enough cash to “burn” for its R&D until it g
ets a drug into the market that can generate sufficient
income to sustain the business (look at burn rate)
2. If not, it MUST have a SECURED source of financing (e.g.
collaboration with a big pharma)
The Biotech Stock Picking System
Quantity of Pipeline
Plenty of drugs in the pipeline with at least two ore more in later clinical trials
(Phase 2 or 3)
Quality of Pipeline
Drugs in pipeline should be 1)Diversified and 2)Aimed at markets that is both large
and under-serviced.
Management
Proven track record of taking a drug through the regulatory hurdles and/or to the
marketplace
A good mix of executives specialized in technology and business
Collaborations
1) Marketing and Developing partnership pharmaceutical companies
2) Research collaboration with corporate or academia partner (e.g. University)
Research & Development
Growing R&D spending and growing or sustaining R&D/$ Sales
Inspired science.
Defining
moments.
Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
• “Applied Molecular Genetics Inc”
• 1st : sales
• 2nd: market capitalization ($99b)
History
Brian McNamee
Senior vice preside, Human Resources from 2001. Vice president of Human Resources at Dell Computer
Crop from 1999 to 2001. Various human resources positions since 1988.
George Marrow
Executive vice president of Worldwide Sales and Marketing since 2001 and became executive vice presi
dent, Global Commercial Operations in April 2003. Various management positions since 1993.
Richard Nanula
Executive vice president and chief financial officer since 2001. Various management positions since 1986
.
David J. Scott
Senior Vice president, general counsel and secretary since March 2004. Senior vice present and general
counsel of Medtronic, Inc from 1999 to 2004.
Stock Price - AMGN
• Stock price: $79.89 (as of Nov7, 2005)
• # of outstanding shares: 1,234 millions
• Exchange: NASDAQ
• Volume: 7,518,000
• Zero Dividend Policy
• Headquarters: California
• Staff employed: more than 14,000
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
EPOGEN Aranesp Neulasta
NEUPOGEN ENBERL Others
Sales Breakdown (as at Sep 2005)
Others- 2%
Enbrel-21%
EPOGEN-21%
NEUOGEN-10%
Aranesp-27%
Neulasta-19%
Solid: US
Dot pattern: international
International Sales
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
US International
A deep product pipeline
with late-stage candidates
Other Principle Products
• Kineret rheumatoid arthritis
• Kepivance™ chronic kidney disease
• Sensipar® mouth sores bought
Potential Candidates
• Panitumumab colorectal cancer ($1 billon market)
• AMG 162 osteoporosis (bone loss) and possibly also bone cancer
2002
1991
2002
2004
1998
1999
2003
2002
2004
2001
2004
2001
1989
Positive Developments
Amgen Ventures
• offer early stage companies access to Amgen's extensive
capabilities while providing Amgen with insight into external
research innovations
• pave the way for future collaborations
Joint Venture
• 50-50 joint venture with Kirin (KA)
Licensing
• Johnson & Johnson – PROCRIT
Co-promotion
• Wyeth – ENBREL
• outside US – Aranesp, Neulasta, NEUPOGEN, ENBREL
Current patents &
patent applications
Patent Expiry
• Epogen 2004
• Neupogen 2006
Next
• Epogen Aranesp
generations!
• Neupogen Neulasta
Other Issues
Stock Option Expense
• Colorando
• Puerto Rico
• Rhode Island
Marketing Strategy
– Solvency
– Quantity of Pipeline
– Quality of Pipeline
– Management
– Collaborations
– R&D
Recommendation
BUY!
(long-term investment)
Genentech
In Business for Life
Company Background
The 5X5 goals that outlined in 1999 and hopes to achieve by the
end of 2005:
1. 25 % average annual non-GAAP EPS growth
2. Immunology
immune disorder
3. Vascular Medicine
heart disease
4. Specialty
Biotherapeutics
other areas
Product Approval Timeline
Revenue Composition
Avasitin –
14.80%
Herceptin –
12.88% Rituxan –
45.64%
Growth
Hormone
-9.44%
Thrombolytic
-5.33% Xolair -5.%
Pulmozyme – 4.8%
In 2004, Genetech:
PHASE III
Avastin Refractory Ovarian Cancer*
Xolair Pediatric Asthma
Lucentis Wet age-related macular degeneration
Rituxan® Relapsed chronic lymphocytic leukemia
Hematology/Oncology
Rituxan-Immunology ANCA-associated vasculitis
Lupus nephritis*
Moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis*
Primary progressive multiple sclerosis
Systemic lupus erythematosus
Tarceva® Adjuvant non-small cell lung cancer*
Tarceva® +/- Avastin® Second line non-small cell lung cancer
Development Pipeline
PHASE II
2nd Generation Anti- Rheumatoid arthritis
CD20
Apo2L/TRAIL Cancer therapy*
Avastin® +/- Tarceva® Non-small cell lung cancer
Omnitarg™ Ovarian cancer
Raptiva® Adult atopic dermatitis*
Rituxan® Immunology Relapsed remitting multiple sclerosis
Topical VEGF Diabetic foot ulcers*
Xolair® Peanut allergy
Development Pipeline
PHASE I
Avastin - New
Tarceva - New
Rituxan – 15% sales increase
Herceptin – 13.6%
Activase, TNKase, and Cathflo Activase – 8%
Avastin – Oncology
Avastin
Anti-VEGF antibody
For use in combination with intravenous 5-
Fluorouracil-based chemotherapy as a treatment for
first-line metastatic colorectal cancer
In 2004, Avastin launch was the most successful
oncology therapeutic in US. The total sales of the 1st
10 month in US was 545 M, which exceeded the full
year sales of any other product in the therapeutic area
by about 175 M.
In the 1st half 2005 sales of Avastin where 464 M
compared with 171 million in first half 2004.
Tarceva – Oncology
approved Nov. 18, 2004
Small molecule HER1/EGFR inhibitor
For use as an oral tablet for the treatment of patients
with locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell l
ung cancer after failure of at least one prior chemot
herapy regimen
The only drug in epidermal growth factor receptor
class to demonstrate an increase in survival I
advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients in a
phase Ii clinical trial
Rituxan – Oncology
Anti-CD20 antibody
approved for the treatment of patient with relapsed or
refractory low-grade or follicular, CD20 positive, B-ce
ll non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
One of Genentech top-selling drugs in 2004
In 2004, Sales of 1.71 B, 14.9% increase
In first half of 2005, 890.8 M, 18.5 % increase
compare with first half of 2004
Marketed in US by Genentech and Biogen Idee
by Zenyaku in Japan
Herceptin
Anti-HER2 antibody
For metastatic breast cancer in HER2 over express
ed tumors
No. 3 best-selling drug to the company
In 2004, sales of 484 M, a 13.6% increase
In the first half of 2005, sales of 291.1M, a 25.9% inc
rease
Marketed by Genentech in US, and Roche in the rest
of the world
3 Vascular Drugs
Cathflo Activase
Thrombolytic agent
For the restoration of function to central venous acce
ss devices as assessed by the ability to withdraw blo
od
On Jan 4, 2005, approved by FDA for catheter cleara
nce in pediatric patients
TNKase
Single-bolus thrombolytic agent
For the treatment of acute myocardial infarction (AMI)
Licensed Products
receive royalty revenue under license
agreements
based on technology developed by us or on
intellectual property to which Genentech has
rights.
products are sometimes sold under different
trademarks or trade names.
Significant licensed products, representing
94% of our royalty revenues in 2004
Licensed Products
Sales Revenue Composition
Avasitin –
14.80%
Herceptin –
12.88% Rituxan –
45.64%
Growth
Hormone
-9.44%
Thrombolytic
-5.33% Xolair -5.%
Pulmozyme – 4.8%
Product Sales
Each Product Revenue Growth
Each Product Revenue Growth
Each Product Revenue Growth
General Growth
Royalties income
2004 2003
2004 2003
12
11.23
10
6 P/B
4 3.77 3.76
2 2.42
1.59
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Price/ Equity Ratio – 5yrs Trend
250
217.8
200
185.7
150
P/E ratio
100
81.08 88.92
50
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Current Ratio – 5yrs Trend
4.5
4 3.96
3.5 3.47
3.25 3.22 3.1
3
2.5
Current Ratio
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Net Profit Margin % - 5 yrs trend
25
22
20
18.49
15
Net Profit
10
Margin %
7.63
5
2.47
0 -0.1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-5
ROE % trend
14
12.8
12
10
8 8.07
6
4
2 2.11
0.93
0
-1.13
-22000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2005 Q1 – Q3
Product Sales
R+D Expenses
Operation Costs
Liquidity + Capital Resources
CF Statement
New Projects
Recent News
Stock Price information
In 2005, Product Sales
In 2005, Operation Cost
In 2005, R+D Expense
In 2005, Liquidity + Capital Resources
Cash Flow Statement
New Projects
Successful Product(s)
Solvency
Quantity of Pipeline
Quality of Pipeline
Management
Collaborations
R&D
Recommendation
Hold !
Celgene
The Top Management Team
John W. Jackson
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Has been Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer since
January 1996 and a member of the Executive Committee of the Board of
Directors.
Sol J. Barer
President and Chief Operating Officer
Has been the President since October 1993 and the Chief Operating
Officer and one of the directors since March 1994 and a member of
the Executive Committee of the Board of Directors.
Robert J. Hugin
Chief Financial Officer
Has been the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
since June 1999 and was elected to serve as a director in Dece
mber 2001.
ABOUT THE COMPANY
• Initially a unit of the Celanese Corporation in 1980.
FOCALIN
• a refined form of Ritalin that offers tolerability and
dosing advantages over the parent drug.
• For the treatment of attention deficit disorder and
attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in
children and adolescents.
FOCALIN XR
• is long-acting version of FOCALIN and is for the
treatment of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder
(ADHD) in adults, adolescents, and children.
Recent News
WASHINGTON, Sept 14, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via
COMTEX News Network/ -- Celgene Corporation announc
ed that the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODA
C) of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) r
ecommended full approval of REVLIMID for the treatm
ent of patients with transfusion- dependent anemia
due to low- or intermediate-1-risk myelodysplastic
syndromes (MDS) associated with a deletion 5q cytog
enetic abnormality with or without additional cytog
enetic abnormalities.
REVLIMID
A current cost driver but a Potential Revenue Driver
Other investigational
compounds:
• Benzopyrans
• Kinases Inhibitors
• Tubulin Inhibitors
• Ligase Modulators
• placental
• cord blood derived s
tem cell programs
ABOUT THE COMPANY
• The company has been running negative since its
“independence” in 1986, until 2003.
For the fiscal year ended December 2003 the Celgene Corp
oration achieved revenues totaling $271.5 million, an in
crease of 100% on 2002 revenues which totaled $135.7 mil
lion
80.00%
FOCALIN
70.00%
60.00%
ALKERAN
50.00%
40.00%
other
30.00%
20.00%
collaborative ageements
10.00% and other revenue
0.00%
2004 2003 2002 Royalty revenue (from
FOCALIN)
Revenue Composition
—the Major Revenue Drivers
% of Total Revenue
THALOMID 81.74% 82.40% 87.71%
Threat:
• Depend too much on this one drug.
• Near-Term Competition With THALOMID®:
reduce THALOMID® sales.
RETALIN® family & FOCALIN series
No.2 Revenue Driver
• Revenue from the royalty has increased in both 2003 and 2004.
2002—2003: by 151.5%
2003—2004: by 127.2%.
The increases were due to increases in the royalty rate on both RITALIN®
and RITALIN® LA as well as increases in RITALIN® LA sales by Novartis.
RETALIN® family & FOCALIN series
No.2 Revenue Driver
Important news
• The company recently completed a double-blinded randomiz
ed placebo-controlled clinical trial evaluating FOCALI
N's potential in the treatment of cancer fatigue associa
ted with chemotherapy
-- 6.57% 4.49%
biopharmaceutical discovery
$ 32.3 M $ 33.7 M $ 40.6 M
and development programs
Increase from Prior Year + 1.9 M (9.9%) + 32.1 M (153.7%) + 6.8 M (12.8%)
2002~2003:
•Big increase, primarily due to significant growth in THALOMID®
sales volumes, higher royalties on THALOMID® product sales.
2003~2004:
•Smaller increase primarily as a result of higher royalties on
THALOMID®, partially offset by lower ALKERAN® sales.
Major Cost Component COG
Increase from Prior Year + 13.6 M (25.9%) + 32.3 M (48.8%) + 15.7 M (16.0%)
2002~2003:
A Good Sign…
Company Performance Overview
—Balance Sheet
(2000~2004)
In Millions 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
200.0
Operating
Investing
100.0
Financing
Free CF
0.0
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004
-100.0
-200.0
-300.0
2005 RESULTS
Company Performance Overview 2005
(Up to September 30)
– Solvency
– Quantity of Pipeline
– Quality of Pipeline
– Management
– Collaborations
– R&D
Recommendation
1. Very high risk
2. High growth potential
BUY