Discrete Probability Distributions 

i.  Bernoulli Distribution
ii.  Binomial Distribution
iii. Poisson Distribution
iv. Geometric Distribution
v. Negative Binomial Distribution
vi.HyperGeometric Distribution 
Special Discrete Probability
Distributions 
Bernouli Trial
 Bernouli trial

It is that trial which has only two possible

outcomes
1. PASS / FAIL

2. GO / NO-GO

3. SUCCESS / FAILURE

3. IN / OUT

4. HOT / COLD
5. MALE / FEMALE

6. DEFECTIVE / NOT DEFECTIVE

7. RIGHT-HANDED / LEFT-HANDED

8. HIGH / LOW

9. HEADS / TAILS
 Many types of probability problems have
only two outcomes, or they can be reduced
to two outcomes

 i. when a coin is tossed, it can land heads or tails. 

ii. A true-false questions can be
answered in only two ways, true or false.
iii. Fire will hit or not on the target.
iv. In a basketball game, a team either wins or loses. 
vi. On 9th Eleven president BUSH said to
President Musharraf Either you are with
us or against us say yes or no
vii. Every morning has two choices Continue your Sleep with dreaming.
OR Wake up and chase your dreams.
Other situations can be reduced to two outcomes.  For example,

i. A medical treatment can be classified as effective or ineffective,

depending on the results. 

ii. A person can be classified as having normal or abnormal blood

pressure, depending on the measure of the blood pressure gauge. 
iii. A multiple-choice question, even though there are four or five answer
choices, can be classified as correct or incorrect.  Situations like these are
called binomial experiments.
2. The Binomial Distribution
An experiment can be called a binomial experiment only
when it possesses the following properties.

i. Every trial must be independent of the others.

ii. Each trial must result in either a success or a

failure

iii. The probability ‘p’ of success must remain

constant from trial to trial.
iv. The number of trials must be a fixed number ‘n’.
These types of experiment can be classed as binomial
experiments but they must possess the following properties
i. The trials must be independent, i.e. the outcome of one trial
does not Influence the outcome of another trial;
ii. Each trial can have only two outcomes, which will be called ‘success’( S ) and
‘failure’ ( F );
iii. The probability of success, P (S) = p, usually just written as p, is the
same for each trial, thus the probability of failure is P( F ) = q = 1-p ;

iv. There must be a fixed number, n ,of identical repetitions of the

experiment, called trials;
 Binomial distribution Function
The experiment is interested in the number of successes,
represented by the random variable X., out of n trials
When the binomial r.v. X assumes a value x the binomial
probability mass function is given by

 n  x n x n!
P( X = x ) =   p q  p x q n x
 x (n  x ) ! x !
for x = 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , …….. n
Suppose there are
n = number of trials
x = number success
n – x = number of failure
p = probability of success
q = 1 – p = probability of failure
P+q =1
Example-1
The probability that a letter will be delivered anywhere in Pakistan in 2
days or less is 0.84. If a college graduate is sending job applications to 5
colleges, and they are all due in 2 days, find the probability that 4 arrive
within 2 days.
Solution
• Success : Letter arrives within 2 days.
• Failure : Letter does not arrive within 2 days.
• Probability of Success : p = 0.84
• Probability of Failure : 1 - p = 0.16
• Number of Trials : n = 5
• Number of Successes : x = 4

0 1 2 3 4 5
x
P(X=x) 0.00010 0.0027 0.0829 0.0243 0.3981 0.4182
 0 1 2 3 4 5
x
P(X=x) 0.00010 0.0027 0.0829 0.0243 0.3981 0.4182

X . P (X= x) 0 0.0027 .01658 0.729 1.5924 2.091

Total Expected Value of x = 4.43

N x P = 5 x 0.84 =4.2
  n  x n x n!
P( X = x ) =   p q  p x q n x
 x (n  x ) ! x !

5
P ( X = 4 ) =   0 . 84 4 x 0.165 4
 4
5!
P ( X 4)  0.844 x 0.16  0.3983
( 54 ) ! 4 !

The probability that 4 of the 5 letters will arrive on time is 0.3983.

 Example – 2
A doctor knows 15% of all her patients are late for their appointments. Given
five
randomly selected patients, what is the approximate probability that exactly
three of them are late for their appointments?
Solution
• Success : Patients are late for their appointments
• Failure : Patients are not late
• Probability of Success : p = 0.15
• Probability of Failure : 1 – 0.15 = 0.85
• Number of Trials : n = 5
• Number of Successes : x = 3

n!
P( X = x ) = p x q n x
(n  x ) ! x !
 0 1 2 3 4 5
x
P(X=x) 0.4437 0.3915 0.1381 0.0243 0.00215 0.000075

X . P (X= x) 0 0.3915 0.2762 0.0725 0.0086 0.00037

Total Expected Value of x = 0.74

N x P = 5 x 0.15 = 0.75
  5
P( X = 3 ) =   0.15 3 x 0.855 3
 3
5!
 0.15 3 x 0.85 2  0.0243
(5  3 ) ! 3 !

The probability that 3 of the 5 patients late is 0.0243

Example - 3
An oil-drilling venture involves the drilling of six wildcat oil wells in
different parts of the country. Suppose that each drilling will produce
either a dry well or an oil gusher. Assuming that the simple events for
this experiment are equally likely, find the probability that at least one
oil gusher will be discovered.
• Success : well Oil produce
• Failure : well dry
• Probability of Success : p = 0.5
• Probability of Failure : 1 - p = 0.5
• Number of Trials : n = 6
• Number of Successes : x = 1, 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 and 6

P(X ≥ 1) = P(X = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(X = 3) +

P(X = 4) + (X = 5) + P(X = 6)
P(X ≥ 1) = 0.0937+ 0.2343 + 0.3125 + 0.2343 + 0.0937+ 0.0156
P(X ≥ 1) = 0.9814
Example - 4
20 % of the bolts produced by a machine are defective, find the
probability that out of 4 bolts chosen at random 1 bolt will be
Defective.
• Success : bolt defective
• Failure : non defective
• Probability of Success : p = 0.20
• Probability of Failure : 1 - p = 0.80
• Number of Trials : n = 4
• Number of Successes : x = 1
n!
P  X x = p x q n x
(n  x ) ! x !
4!
P  X 1  = 0.20 1
x 0.80 41  0.4096
(4 1) ! 1 !

The probability that 1 of the 4 bolts is 0.4096.

Example – 5
A circuit requiring a 500-ohm resistance is designed with five 100-ohm
resistors connected in series. The proper resistance is achieved only if all five
resistors work successfully. There is a 0.992 probability that any individual
resistor will work successfully. What is the probability that all five resistors
will work successfully to provide the necessary resistance?
• Success : resistors work successfully
• Failure : resistors fail
• Probability of Success : p = 0.992
• Probability of Failure : 1 - p = 0.008
• Number of Trials : n = 5
• Number of Successes : x = 5

5!
P  X 5  = 0.992 5
x 0.0080 0
 0.9606
(5  5 ) ! 5 !
Example - 6
Eggs are packed in boxes of 12. The probability that each
egg is broken is 0.35.Find the probability in a random box of
eggs:there are 4 broken eggs

12 
P ( X  4)   0.35 4  0.65 (12 4 )  495  0.35 4  0.658
4
 0.235 to 3 significant figures
A manufacturer of Lap Top finds that, 12%  of his LapTops are
rejected because they are defective . What is the probability
that
a batch of 10 Laptop will contain
a. Exactly 2  defective? b. at least 7 defective?
10 
P( X  2)    0.12 2  0.88 (10 2 )  45  0.12 2  0.888
2
Example
A lot of LED of 40” contains 5-percent of defective set what
should be the number(n) of LED in a random sample so that the
probability of finding at least one defective LED in it , is greater
than 0.75
A sales representative for a tire manufacturer claims that the company’s
steel-belted radials last at least 35,000 miles. A tire dealer decides to check
that claims by testing eight of the tires. If 75 % or more of the eight tries he
tests last atleast 35,000 miles, he will purchase tires from the sales
representative. If in fact, 90% of the steel belted radials produced by the
manufacturer atleast 35,000 miles, what is the probability that the tire dealer
will purchase tires from the sales representative?
3. The Poisson distribution
 The Poisson probability Mass function
Poisson distribution is a limiting case of the Binomial
distribution when
i. n   i.e.  n  20
ii. p  0 i.e.  p  0.05
iii. n p    average of Binomial distribution

Then probability mass function of Poisson is given

e 
 x
p( x )  x  0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ,........
x!
 The following random variables can possess these properties:

i. The number of telephone calls arriving at a switch board in a one

hour period
ii. The number of customers arriving at a cash desk in a shop
iii. Number of typing errors on a page.
iv. Failure of a machine in one month
EXAMPLE – 1
A company makes electric motors. The probability an electric motor is
defective is 0.01. What is the probability that a sample of 300 electric
motors will contain exactly 5 defective motors?
Solution
The average number of defectives in 300 motors is
 = 0.01 × 300 = 3
The probability of getting 5 defectives is:

                                      
 x e
P(x)  ; for x  0 ,1 , 2 , 3 , ......
x!
3 5 e 3
P( x 5)   0.10082
5!
Example - 3
There were 46 aircraft hijackings worldwide. The mean number of
hijackings per day is estimated as 46/365 = 0.126.there is need to
know about the chances of multiple hijacking in one day. Use
 = 0.126 and find the probability that the number of hijackings ( x )
in one day is 0 , 1
Solution
The Poisson distribution applies because we are dealing with the
occurrences of hijacking event over a time interval of one day. The
probability of 0 and 1 is
calculated as

e 0.126
 0.126 0
P x  0    0.882
0!

e 0.126
 0.126 1
P  x 1    0.111
1!
Example - 4
The probability that a person dies from a certain infection is 0.003 .Find the
probability that exactly 4 of the next 3000 so infected will die
Solution
 = n x p = 3000 x 0.003 = 9

e 9
 94
P  x4    0.0337
4!
 Geometric Distribution
A geometric distribution is a discrete probability distribution of
a random variable x that satisfies the following conditions.

1. A trial is repeated until a success occurs.

2. The repeated trials are independent of each other.
3. The probability of a success p is constant for each trial.

The probability that the first success will occur on trial x is

P ( x ) = p q x – 1, where q = 1 – p.
Example
If the probability is 0.85 that an application for a driver’s
licence will pass the road test on given try. What is the
probability that an applicant will finally pass the test on the
3rd try.

Solution
This is the probability of geometric distribution since first
success occur in the 3rd trial/
P ( X = x ) = p qx –1 x = 3 , p = 0.85 , q = 0.15
P ( X = 3 ) = ( 0.85) ( 0.15) 3 –1
 Negative binomial distribution
• Negative Binomial Experiment
• A negative binomial experiment is a Statistical experiment that has the
following properties:
• The experiment consists of x repeated trials.
• Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes. We call one of these
outcomes a success and the other, a failure.
• The probability of success, denoted by P, is the same on every trial.
• The trials are independent that is, the outcome on one trial does not
affect the outcome on other trials.
• The experiment continues until r successes are observed, where r is
specified in advance.

• P(X = x ) = C  x Pr x Qx - r 
x-1 r-1
Example 1 
Asad is a high school basketball player. He is a 70% free throw shooter. That
means his probability of making a free throw is 0.70. During the season, what is
the probability that Asad makes his third free throw on his fifth shot?
Solution: This is an example of a negative binomial experiment. The probability
of success (P) is 0.70, the number of trials (x) is 5, and the number of successes
(r) is 3.
To solve this problem, we enter these values into the negative binomial formula.
b*(x; r, P) =  x-1Cr-1 x Pr x Qx - r 
b*(5; 3, 0.7) =  4C2 x 0.73 x 0.32 
b*(5; 3, 0.7) = 6 x 0.343 x 0.09 = 0.18522
Thus, the probability that asad will make his third successful free throw on his fifth
shot is 0.18522.
Message of the Day
Message of the day
Have a Nice Day