PROBABILITY

Define Define events and probabilities

Describe Describe the basic relationships of probability

LEARNING Describe and Describe and give examples of the different types

OUTCOMES give of probability

Define and Define and give examples of random variables.

give

Differentiate between continuous and discrete

Differentiate random variables
Probability
• Probability is a measure of how
likely an event is to occur.

• For example –
• Today there is a 60% chance of rain.
• The odds of winning the lottery are a
million to one.
• What are some examples you can think
of?
Probability
• Probabilities are written as:

• Fractions from 0 to 1

• Decimals from 0 to 1

• Percent from 0% to 100%

Probability
• If an event is certain to happen, then the
probability of the event is 1 or 100%.

• If an event will NEVER happen, then the

probability of the event is 0 or 0%.

• If an event is just as likely to happen as to

not happen, then the probability of the
event is ½, 0.5 or 50%.
Probability
 PROBABILITY
• When a meteorologist states that the
chance of rain is 50%, the meteorologist is
saying that it is equally likely to rain or not
to rain.
• If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more
likely to rain.
• If the chance drops to 20%, then it may
rain, but it probably will not rain.
Probability

• What are some events that will never

happen and have a probability of 0%?
• What are some events that are certain to
happen and have a probability of 100%?
• What are some events that have equal
chances of happening and have a
probability of 50%?
Probability
• The probability of an event is written:

P(event) = number of ways event can occur

total number of outcomes
Probability
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes

• An outcome is a possible result of a

probability experiment

• When rolling a number cube, the possible

outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6
 Probability
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes

• An event is a specific result of a probability

experiment

• When rolling a number cube, the event of

rolling an even number is 3 (you could roll a
2, 4 or 6).
Probability
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes

What is the probability of getting heads when

flipping a coin?

P(heads) = number of ways = 1 head on a coin = 1

total outcomes = 2 sides to a coin = 2

P(heads)= ½ = 0.5 = 50%

 TRY THESE:
B A 1.What is the probability that the
C D spinner will stop on part A?

2. What is the probability that the

3 1
spinner will stop on
2 (a) An even number?
(b) An odd number?
A
3. What is the probability that the
C B
spinner will stop in the area marked A?
Probability Word Problem:

• Lawrence is the captain of his track team.

The team is deciding on a color and all eight
members wrote their choice down on equal
size cards. If Lawrence picks one card at
random, what is the probability that he will
pick blue?
Number of blues = 3
Total cards = 8
3/8 or 0.375 or 37.5%
blue blue

yellow green black

blue black
red
 Let’s Work These Together
• Donald is rolling a number cube labeled 1 to 6. What is
the probability of the following?

a.) an odd number

3/6 = ½ = 0.5 = 50%
odd numbers – 1, 3, 5
total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

b.) a number greater than 5

numbers greater – 6 1/6 = 0.166 = 16.6%
total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
 TRY THESE:
1 2
1. What is the probability of spinning a
3 4 number greater than 1?

2. What is the probability that a spinner

with five congruent sections numbered
1-5 will stop on an even number?

3. What is the probability of rolling a

multiple of 2 with one toss of a number
cube?
BASIC PROBABILITY RELATIONSHIPS

• Union of events E or F (EUF)

• The event containing all outcomes belonging to E
or F or both

• Intersection of events E and F (EΠF)

• The event containing the outcomes that belong to
both E and F
ADDITION RULE

• Provides a way to compute the probability

the event A or even B or both will occur.
P(EUF)

• P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E and F)

 EXAMPLE Illustrating the Addition Rule
Suppose that a pair of fair dice are thrown.
a) Let E=“rolling a seven”, compute the probability of
rolling a seven, i.e., P(E).
b) Let E=“rolling a two ” (called ‘snake eyes’), compute
the probability of rolling “snake eyes”, i.e., P(E).
c) Let E = “the first die is a two” and let F = “the sum of the
dice is less than or equal to 5”. Find P(E or F) directly
by counting the number of ways E or F could occur and
dividing this result by the number of possible outcomes.
Answer: 24

• a) P(E) = N(E)/N(S) = 6/36 = 1/6

• b) 1/6
• c) N(E) = 6, N(F)=4+3+2+1 =10,
• N(E and F) =3 , so N(E or F) =13
 EXAMPLE The Addition Rule

Redo the last example using the

Addition Rule.
P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E and F)
= 6/36 +10/36- 3/36
=13/36
VENN DIAGRAMS
Venn diagrams represent events
as circles enclosed in a rectangle.
The rectangle represents the
sample space and each circle
represents an event.
27
DISJOINT OR MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE

If events E and F have no simple

events in common or cannot occur
simultaneously, they are said to be
disjoint or mutually exclusive.
Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive
Events 29

If E and F are mutually exclusive events, then

P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F)

In general, if E, F, G, … are mutually exclusive events, then

P(E or F or G or …) = P(E) + P(F) + P(G) + …

Events E and F Events E, F and G
are Mutually are Mutually
Exclusive Exclusive
 EXAMPLE Using the Addition Rule

The following data represent the language spoken at

home by age for residents of San Francisco County, CA
between the ages of 5 and 64 years.

Source: United States Census Bureau, 2000 Supplementary Survey

(a) What is the probability a randomly selected resident of
San Francisco County between 5 and 64 years speaks
English only at home?
(b) What is the probability a randomly selected resident of
San Francisco between 5 and 64 years is 5 - 17 years old?
(c ) What is the probability a randomly selected resident of
San Francisco between 5 and 64 years is 5 - 17 years old
or speaks English only at home?
COMPLEMENTS 33
34
EXAMPLE Illustrating the Complement Rule

According to the American Veterinary

Medical Association, 31.6% of American
households own a dog. What is the
probability that a randomly selected
household does not own a dog?
E= Own a dog E - Does not own a dog
P(E) =31.6% P( E )  1  P( E )
 EXAMPLE Illustrating the Complement Rule

The data on the following page represent the 36

travel time to work for residents of Hartford
County, CT.
(a) What is the probability a randomly
selected resident has a travel time of 90 or
more minutes?
(b) What is the probability a randomly
selected resident has a travel time less than
90 minutes?
 37

Source: United States Census Bureau, 2000 Supplementary Survey

Joint and Conditional Probability 38

• JOINT PROBABILITY = P(E Π F)

• CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• The notation P(F | E) is read “the probability of
event F given event E”.
• It is the probability of an event F given the
occurrence of the event E.
The Multiplication Rule 39

• Used to calculate the probability of the intersection of two events:

P(EΠF)
EXAMPLE Illustrating the Multiplication Rule
Suppose a jar has 2 yellow M&Ms, 1 green
M&M, 2 brown M&Ms, and 1 blue M&Ms.
Suppose that two M&Ms are randomly
selected. Use a tree diagram to compute the
probability that the first M&M selected is
brown and the second is blue.
NOTE: Let the first yellow M&M be Y1, the
second yellow M&M be Y2, the green M&M be
G, and so on.
EXAMPLE Computing Probabilities
Using the Multiplication Rule
41

Redo the first example using the

Multiplication Rule.
EXAMPLE Using the Multiplication Rule
The probability that a randomly selected murder
victim was male is 0.7515. The probability that a
randomly selected murder victim was less than 18
years old given that he was male was 0.1020. What
is the probability that a randomly selected murder
victim is male and is less than 18 years old?
Data based on information obtained from the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation.

P(male and <18)=p(<18)*P(male|<18)

P(male and <18)=p(male)*P(<18|male)
=0.7515*0.1020=0.076653
INDEPENDENT EVENTS 43

• Two events E and F are independent if the

occurrence of event E in a probability
experiment does not affect the probability of
event F.
• Two events are dependent if the occurrence
of event E in a probability experiment affects
the probability of event F.
Definition of Independent Events
44

Two events E and F are independent if

and only if :

P(F | E) = P(F) or P(E | F) = P(E)

EXAMPLE Illustrating Independent Events

The probability a randomly selected murder victim is 45

male is 0.7515. The probability a randomly selected
murder victim is male given that they are less than 18
years old is 0.6751.
Since P(male) = 0.7515 and
P(male | < 18 years old) = 0.6751,
the events “male” and “less than 18 years old” are not
independent. In fact, knowing the victim is less than 18
years old decreases the probability that the victim is
male.
EXAMPLE Illustrating the Multiplication
Principle for Independent Events

The probability that a randomly selected female

aged 60 years old will survive the year is
99.186% according to the National Vital
Statistics Report, Vol. 47, No. 28. What is the
probability that two randomly selected 60 year
old females will survive the year?

99.186% * 99.186% =98.38%

EXAMPLE Illustrating the Multiplication
Principle for Independent Events
The probability that a randomly selected female
aged 60 years old will survive the year is
99.186% according to the National Vital Statistics
Report, Vol. 47, No. 28. What is the probability
that four randomly selected 60 year old females
will survive the year?
0.99186* 0.99186* 0.99186* 0.99186=96.78%
Problem

Suppose we have a box full of 500 golf balls. In the box, there
are 50 Titleist golf balls.
(a) Suppose two golf balls are selected randomly without
replacement. What is the probability they are both Titleists?
(b) Suppose a golf ball is selected at random and then
replaced. A second golf ball is then selected. What is the
probability they are both Titleist's? NOTE: When sampling with
replacement, the events are independent.
“At least Probabilities”

If small random samples are taken from

large populations without replacement, it is
reasonable to assume independence of
the events.
Typically, if the sample size is less than
5% of the population size, then we treat
the events as independent.
EXAMPLE Computing “at least” Probabilities

The probability that a randomly selected female

aged 60 years old will survive the year is 99.186%
according to the National Vital Statistics Report,
Vol. 47, No. 28. What is the probability that at least
one of 500 randomly selected 60 year old females
will die during the course of the year?

1-P(All Survived)=1-0.99186^500=50.4%
53
 TYPE OF INDEPENDENT EVENTS DEPENDENT EVENTS
PROBABILITY
SYMBOL FORMULA SYMBOL FORMULA

MARGINAL P(A) P (A) P(A) All joint

probabilities
with A
JOINT P (AΠB) P (A) x P (B) P (AΠB) P (B) x P (AIB)

CONDITIONAL P (AIB) P (A) P (AIB) P (AΠB)/ P (B)

P (BIA) P (B) P (BIA) P (AΠB) / P (A)

Exercises