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Travel Demand Forecasting

1. Travel demand forecasting is a multi-stage process used to predict future traffic volumes on transportation infrastructure like highways and rail lines. 2. It involves dividing a study area into zones, analyzing trip generation rates based on land use characteristics, distributing trips between zones, modeling modal choice, and assigning trips to routes. 3. Key steps are breaking the area into homogeneous zones, calculating trips starting in each zone by purpose using techniques like cross-classification of variables like income and auto ownership, and producing a trip distribution table showing inter-zone trips.

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73 views19 pages

Travel Demand Forecasting

1. Travel demand forecasting is a multi-stage process used to predict future traffic volumes on transportation infrastructure like highways and rail lines. 2. It involves dividing a study area into zones, analyzing trip generation rates based on land use characteristics, distributing trips between zones, modeling modal choice, and assigning trips to routes. 3. Key steps are breaking the area into homogeneous zones, calculating trips starting in each zone by purpose using techniques like cross-classification of variables like income and auto ownership, and producing a trip distribution table showing inter-zone trips.

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clainie
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TRAVEL DEMAND

FORECASTING
Sit Dolor Amet
Travel Demand Forecasting is a key component of the transportation engineer’s
technical repertoire. It allows the engineer to predict the volume of traffic that
will use a given transportation element in the future, whether that element is an
existing highway or a potential light-rail route.
Overview of the TDF Process

Travel Demand Forecasting is a multi-stage process, and there are several different techniques that can be used at each stage. Generally,
Travel Demand Forecasting involves five interrelated tasks.

1. Break the area that requires prediction of future travel demand into study zones that can be accurately described by a few variables.

2. Calculate the number of trips starting in each zone for a particular trip purpose. (Trip Generation Analysis)

3. Produce a table of the number of trips starting in each zone and ending up in each other zone. (Trip Distribution Analysis)

4. Complete the allocation of the various trips among the available transportation systems (bus, train, pedestrian, and private vehicles).
(Modal Choice Analysis)

5. Identify the specific routes on each transportation system that will be selected by the travelers. (Trip Assignment Analysis)
OVER-ALL PROCEDURE
Description of the Study Area
◦ Study Boundary

Before forecasting the travel for an urban area or region, the planner must clearly
define the exact area to be considered. These areas may be defined by the urban
growth boundary (UGB), county lines or town centers. The planning area generally
includes all the developed land, plus undeveloped land that the area will encompass
in the next 20 to 30 years.

The cordon line denotes the boundary of the planning area. In addition to considering


future growth, the establishment of the cordon line might take into account political
jurisdictions, census area boundaries, and natural boundaries. The cordon line should
intersect a minimum number of roads.
Description of the Study Area

◦ The study area must then be divided into analysis units, or zones. This will enable the planner to link
information about activities, travel, and transportation to the physical locations in the study area.
The transportation analysis zones (TAZ) vary in size depending on the density or nature of the
development. In an urban area the TAZ may be as small as a city block, but in rural areas the TAZ may
be as large as 10 or more square miles. The zones attempt to encompass homogeneous urban activities,
which are all residential, all commercial, or all industrial. Zones are designed to be relatively
homogeneous traffic generators and are sized so that only 10-15% of the trips are intra-zonal.
Description of the Study Area

 Links and Nodes


◦ Normally, a simple representation of the geometry of the available transportation systems is included on
the map of the study area. A system of links and nodes, or a network, indicates roadways and other
transportation routes. Links represent sections of roadway (or railway etc.) that are homogeneous, while
nodes are simply points at which links meet. Usually, transit networks are developed independently of
truck and automobile networks. In the network description, zone centroids (centers of activity) are
identified; they are connected to nodes by imaginary links called centroid connectors. Centroids are used
as the points as which trips are "loaded" onto the network.
TRIP GENERATION ANALYSIS
Three important characteristics of land use and trip-
makers
◦  Densityor intensity --determining the number of dwellings, employees, or tenants per acre.
The intensity can be related to an average number of trips per day, based on experience with
the type of land use at hand.
◦ Social and economic character of the users can influence the number of trips that are
expected. Character attributes like average family income, education, and car ownership
influence the number of trips that will be produced by a zone.
◦  Location plays an important role in trip production and attraction. Street congestion, parking,
and other environmental attributes can increase or decrease the number of trips that an area
produces or attracts.
THREE MAJOR TECHNIQUES USED FOR
TRIP GENERATION ANALYSIS
◦ Cross-Classification,
◦ Multiple Regression Analysis, and
◦ Experience Based Analysis
Cross-Classification

Cross-Classification resembles multiple regression techniques. Cross-


Classification is essentially non-parametric, since no account is taken of the
distribution of the individual values. One problem with the Cross-Classification
technique is that the "independent" variables may not be truly independent, and
the resultant relationships and predictions may well be invalid.
Cross-Classification

◦ Income sub-model: reflects the distribution of households within various income categories (e.g. high,
medium and low).
◦ Auto ownership sub-model: relates the household income to auto ownership.
◦ Trip production sub-model: establishes the relationship between the trips made by each household and
the independent variables.
◦ Trip purpose sub-model: relates the trip purposes to income in such a manner that the trip productions
can be divided among various purposes. These models are developed using origin-destination travel
surveys.
Cross-Classification Procedure
1. Get data according to what sub-model is to consider.
Cross-Classification Procedure
2. DIVIDE TRIPS BY THE NO. OF USERS OR HOUSEHOLD IN THE INITIAL DATA.
◦ Multiply trip rates to the forecasted data
NO. OF HOUSEHOLD OWNING # VEHICLE
LOW MEDIUM HIGH

0 17 11 0

1 39 227 11

2 9 115 44

3+ 0 7 20
TRIP GENERATED
LOW MEDIUM HIGH

0 34 33 0

1 273 1816 143

2 108 1495 792

3+ 0 126 460
LOW MEDIUM HIGH

0 17 11 0
TOTAL TRIPS: 5260 TRIPS
1 39 227 11

2 9 115 44

3+ 0 7 20

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