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Simulation & Its Applications

Simulation is a technique used to represent reality through models to understand how systems work and test new concepts. It allows gaining insights without disturbing the actual system. Monte Carlo simulation specifically uses random numbers to model systems. Key steps involve developing a model, running simulations by varying inputs, and analyzing results to improve understanding. Simulation has various applications in manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, and more. It provides benefits like testing ideas safely but also has disadvantages like requiring expertise and time.

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Abhijeet Singh
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92 views

Simulation & Its Applications

Simulation is a technique used to represent reality through models to understand how systems work and test new concepts. It allows gaining insights without disturbing the actual system. Monte Carlo simulation specifically uses random numbers to model systems. Key steps involve developing a model, running simulations by varying inputs, and analyzing results to improve understanding. Simulation has various applications in manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, and more. It provides benefits like testing ideas safely but also has disadvantages like requiring expertise and time.

Uploaded by

Abhijeet Singh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Simulation & its Applications

Presented by:- Abhijeet Singh Mukati , Naman Jain , Mary Jenny


& Kanha Agrawal
What is Simulation in Quantitative Techniques

Simulation is the representation of the reality through the use of a model or other
device which will react in the same manner as reality exists under given set of
conditions.

It can be said like “It is better to do simulation before Implementation”.

Purpose of simulation:
• Gaining insight into the operation of a system.
• Developing operating or resource policies to improve system performance.
• Testing new concepts and/or systems before implementation.
• Gaining information without disturbing the actual system.
Basic Concept
•System: The physical process of interest.

•Model: Mathematical representation of the system


– Models are a fundamental tool of science, engineering, business, etc.
– Abstraction of reality
– Models always have limits of credibility
•Simulation: A type of model where the computer is used to imitate the behavior
of the system.
•Monte Carlo simulation: Simulation method that makes use of internally
generated (pseudo) random numbers.
Models Classifications
• Static: No attempts to model a time sequence of changes.

• Dynamic: Updating each entity at each occurring event.

• Deterministic: Rule based.

• Stochastic: Based on conditional probabilities.

• Discrete: Changes in the state of the system occur instantaneously at random


points in time as a result of the occurrence of discrete events.

• Continuous: Changes of the state of the system occur continuously over time.
Ways to study Simulation
Steps to study Simulation
How to use a Simulation

• Develop a model
• Simulate it
• Analyze the results
• Learn from the simulation
• Revise the model & simulation
• Continue the interactions until adequate level of understanding is
developed.
Practical problems in Simulation
Here are some practises where simulation is required
• Event Type Simulation
• Queuing Problems
• Investment & Budgeting Problem
• Quality control problem
• Job sequencing
• Maintenance problem
• Inventory control simulation problems
Monte Carlo Simulation

Method developed by John Von Neumann & Stainslaw Ulam during WW2 to study
how far neutrons would travel through different material. And that’s how the idea
of simulation was created. It is an approximation method but becomes quite
popular and found many application in business & industry.
How to use Monte Carlo methods

Regardless of what tool you use, Monte Carlo techniques involves three basic
steps:

• Set up the predictive model, identifying both the dependent variable to be


predicted and the independent variables (also known as the input, risk or
predictor variables) that will drive the prediction.
• Specify probability distributions of the independent variables. Use historical
data and/or the analyst’s subjective judgment to define a range of likely values
and assign probability weights for each.
• Run simulations repeatedly, generating random values of the independent
variables. Do this until enough results are gathered to make up a
representative sample of the near infinite number of possible combinations.
There are many examples of the use of Monte Carlo methods across a range of
scientific disciplines.

For example, Monte Carlo methods can be used for:

• Calculating the probability of a move by an opponent in a complex game.


• Calculating the probability of a weather event in the future.
• Calculating the probability of a vehicle crash under specific conditions.
Practical Example of event type simulation
Advantages of simulation

• New policies, operating procedures, information flows and son on can be


explored without disrupting ongoing operation of the real system.
• New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems and can be
tested without committing resources for their acquisition.
• Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speed-up or slow-down of
the phenomenon( clock is self-control).
• Insights can be obtained about interaction of variables and important
variables to the performance.
• Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover where work in process, the
system is delayed.
• A simulation study can help in understanding how the system operates.
• “What if” questions can be answered.
Disadvantages of Simulation

• Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive.

• Simulation results may be difficult to interpret: – Since most simulation


results are essentially random variables.

• Model building requires special training: – M&S is an art that is learned over
time and through experience. – Two models of the same system developed by
two different individuals may have similarities, but it is unlikely be the same. –
Building a realistic model may require domain knowledge that can only be
acquired from a subject matter expert.

• Simulation may be used inappropriately: – Simulation is used in some cases


when analytical solution is possible, or even preferable.
Areas of application in Simulation
• Manufacturing Applications
• Semiconductor Manufacturing
• Construction Engineering and project management
• Military application
• Logistics, Supply chain and distribution application
• Transportation modes and Traffic
• Business Process Simulation
• Health Care
• Automated Material Handling System (AMHS)
• Test beds for functional testing of control-system software
• Risk analysis
• Insurance, portfolio,...
• Computer Simulation
• CPU, Memory,…
• Network simulation
• Internet backbone, LAN (Switch/Router), Wireless, PSTN (call centre),...
Thank You!

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