LECTURE 9

One-sample Hypothesis Tests

 Learning Objectives

In this chapter, you learn:

 The basic principles of hypothesis testing
 Testing a Mean: Known Population Variance
 Testing a Mean: Unknown Population Variance
 Testing a Proportion
 What is a Hypothesis?
 A hypothesis is a claim
(assertion) about a
population parameter:

 population mean
Example: The mean monthly cell phone bill
in this city is μ = $42
 population proportion
Example: The proportion of adults in this
city with cell phones is π = 0.68
 The Null Hypothesis, H0

 States the claim or assertion to be tested

Example: The average number of TV sets in
U.S. Homes is equal to three ( H0 : μ  3 )
 Always contains “=” sign.
 Always about a population parameter,
not about a sample statistic.

H0 : μ  3 H0 : X  3
 The Alternative Hypothesis, H1

 Is the opposite of the null hypothesis

Example: The average number of TV sets
in U.S. homes is not equal to 3 ( H1: μ ≠ 3 )

 Is generally the hypothesis that the

researcher is trying to prove.
Formulate Hyphothesis
 Hypothesis Testing Process

Claim: the
population
mean age is 50.
(Null Hypothesis:
Population
H0: μ = 50 )
Now select a
random sample
Is X 20 likely if μ = 50?
If not likely,
REJECT
Null Hypothesis Sample
 Reason for Rejecting H0
Sampling Distribution of X

X
20 μ = 50

If it is unlikely that
If H0 is true ... then we
we would get a reject the null
sample mean of ... if in fact this were hypothesis that
this value ... the population mean… μ = 50.
 Critical Values
 If the sample mean is close to the stated
population mean, H0 is not rejected.
 If the sample mean is far from the stated
population mean, H0 is rejected.
 How far is “far enough” to reject H0?
 The critical value creates a “line in the sand” for
decision making: how far is far enough.
 Critical Values
Sampling Distribution of the test statistic

Region of Region of
Rejection Rejection
Region of
Non-Rejection

Critical Values

“Too Far Away” From Mean of Sampling

Distribution
 Errors in Hypothesis Test
Decision Making
 Type I Error
 Reject a true null hypothesis
 Considered a serious type of error
The probability of Type I Error is 
 Called level of significance of the test
 Set by the researcher in advance
 Type II Error
 Fail to reject a false null hypothesis
The probability of Type II Error is β
 Confidence Level

 The confidence coefficient (1-α) is the

probability of not rejecting H0 when it is true.

 The confidence level of a hypothesis test is

(1-α)*100%.

 The power of a statistical test (1-β) is the

probability of rejecting H0 when it is false.
 Level of Significance
and the Rejection Region
Level of significance =  Represents
critical value
H0: μ = 3  /2  /2
H1: μ ≠ 3 Rejection
Two-tailed test 0 region is
shaded
H0: μ ≤ 3 
H1: μ > 3
Right-tailed test 0

H0: μ ≥ 3

H1: μ < 3
Left-tailed test 0
Hypothesis Tests for the Mean

Hypothesis
Tests for 

 Known  Unknown
(Z test) (t test)
 Z Test of Hypothesis for the
Mean (σ Known)
 Convert sample statistic ( X ) to a Z test statistic
Hypothesis
Tests for 

σKnown
Known σUnknown
Unknown
(Z test) (t test)
The test statistic is:

X μ
Z 
σ
n
 Critical Value
Approach to Testing
 For a two-tail test for the mean, σ known:
 Convert sample statistic ( X ) to test statistic (Z
statistic )
 Determine the critical Z values for a specified
level of significance 
 Decision Rule: If the test statistic falls in the
rejection region, reject H0; otherwise do not
reject H0
 Hypothesis Testing Example
Test the claim that the true mean # of TV sets
in US homes is equal to 3.
(Assume σ = 0.8)

1. State the appropriate null and alternative

hypotheses
 H0: μ = 3 H1: μ ≠ 3 (This is a two-tail test)
2. Specify the desired level of significance and the
sample size
 Suppose that  = 0.05 and n = 100 are chosen
for this test
 Hypothesis Testing Example
(continued)

3. Determine the appropriate technique

 σ is known so this is a Z test.
4. Determine the critical values
 For  = 0.05 the critical Z values are ±1.96
5. Collect the data and compute the test statistic
 Suppose the sample results are
n = 100, X = 2.84 (σ = 0.8 is assumed known)
So the test statistic is:
X μ 2.84  3  .16
Z      2.0
σ 0.8 .08
n 100
 Hypothesis Testing Example
(continued)
 6. Is the test statistic in the rejection region?

/2 = 0.05/2 /2 = 0.05/2

Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0

-Z= -1.96 0 +Z= +1.96

Z = -2.0 < -1.96, so the test statistic

is in the rejection region

We reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is sufficient

evidence that the mean number of TVs in US homes is not equal to 3
 p-Value Approach to Testing

 p-value: Probability of obtaining a test

statistic more extreme ( ≤ or  ) than the
observed sample value given H0 is true
 Also called observed level of significance

 Smallest value of  for which H0 can be

rejected
 p-Value Approach to Testing
(continued)

 Convert Sample Statistic (e.g., X ) to Test

Statistic (e.g., Z statistic )
 Obtain the p-value from a table or computer

 Compare the p-value with 

 If p-value <  , reject H0

 If p-value   , do not reject H0

 p-Value Example
 Example: How likely is it to see a sample mean of
2.84 (or something further from the mean, in either
direction) if the true mean is  = 3.0 (with σ = 0.8)?

X = 2.84 is translated
to a Z score of Z = -2.0
/2 = 0.025 /2 = 0.025
P(Z  2.0)  0.0228
0.0228 0.0228
P(Z  2.0)  0.0228

p-value
= 0.0228 + 0.0228 = 0.0456
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.0 2.0
 p-Value Example
(continued)
 Compare the p-value with 
 If p-value <  , reject H0
 If p-value   , do not reject H0

Here: p-value = 0.0456 /2 = 0.025 /2 = 0.025

 = 0.05
0.0228 0.0228
Since 0.0456 < 0.05,
we reject the null
hypothesis
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
-2.0 2.0
 P-Values

P > 0.10 No evidence against the null hypothesis.

0.05 < P < 0.10 Weak evidence against the null hypothesis

0.01 < P < 0.05 Moderate evidence against the null hypothesis

P < 0.01 Strong evidence against the null hypothesis

 Connection to Confidence Intervals
 For X = 2.84, σ = 0.8 and n = 100, the 95% confidence
interval is:

0.8 0.8
2.84 - (1.96) to 2.84  (1.96)
100 100
2.6832 ≤ μ ≤ 2.9968

 Since this interval does not contain the hypothesized

mean (3.0), we reject the null hypothesis at  = 0.05
 One-Tail Tests

 In many cases, the alternative hypothesis

focuses on a particular direction

This is a lower-tail test since the

H0: μ ≥ 3
alternative hypothesis is focused on
the lower tail below the mean of 3
H1: μ < 3
H0: μ ≤ 3 This is an upper-tail test since the
alternative hypothesis is focused on
H1: μ > 3 the upper tail above the mean of 3
 Left-Tailed Tests
H0: μ ≥ 3
 There is only one
critical value, since H1: μ < 3
the rejection area is

in only one tail

Reject H0 Do not reject H0

-Z 0
Z

μ X

Critical value
 Right-Tailed Tests

H0: μ ≤ 3
 There is only one
critical value, since H1: μ > 3
the rejection area is
in only one tail 

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

Z 0 Zα
_
X μ

Critical value
 Example: Upper-Tail Z Test
for Mean ( Known)
A phone industry manager thinks that
customer monthly cell phone bills have
increased, and now average over $52 per
month. The company wishes to test this
claim. (Assume  = 10 is known)

Form hypothesis test:

H0: μ ≤ 52 the average is not over $52 per month
H1: μ > 52 the average is greater than $52 per month
(i.e., sufficient evidence exists to support the
manager’s claim)
 Example: Find Rejection Region
(continued)
 Suppose that  = 0.10 is chosen for this test

Find the rejection region: Reject H0

= 0.10

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

0 1.28

Reject H0 if Z > 1.28

 Example: Test Statistic
(continued)

Obtain sample and compute the test statistic

Suppose a sample is taken with the following

results: n = 64, X = 53.1 (=10 was assumed known)
 Then the test statistic is:

Xμ 53.1  52
Z    0.88
σ 10
n 64
 Example: Decision
(continued)
Reach a decision and interpret the result:
Reject H0

= 0.10

Do not reject H0 Reject H0

0
1.28
Z = 0.88

Do not reject H0 since Z = 0.88 ≤ 1.28

i.e.: there is not sufficient evidence that the
mean bill is over $52
 p -Value Solution
(continued)
Calculate the p-value and compare to 
(assuming that μ = 52.0)
p-value = 0.1894

Reject H0 P( X  53.1)
= 0.10
 53.1  52.0 
 P Z  
0  10/ 64 
Do not reject H0 Reject H0
1.28  P(Z  0.88)  1 0.8106
Z = 0.88
 0.1894

Do not reject H0 since p-value = 0.1894 >  = 0.10

 t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean
(σ Unknown)
 Convert sample statistic ( X ) to a t test statistic
Hypothesis
Tests for 

σKnown
Known σUnknown
Unknown
(Z test) (t test)
The test statistic is:

X μ
t n-1 
S
n
 Example: Two-Tail Test
( Unknown)

The average cost of a

hotel room in New York
is said to be $168 per
night. A random sample
of 25 hotels resulted in
X = $172.50 and H0: μ= 168
S = $15.40. Test at the H1: μ 168

 = 0.05 level.
(Assume the population distribution is normal)
 Example Solution:
Two-Tail Test

H0: μ= 168 /2=.025 /2=.025

H1: μ 168

 = 0.05 Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0

t n-1,α/2
-t n-1,α/2 0
 n = 25 -2.0639 2.0639
1.46
  is unknown, so X μ 172.50  168
t n 1    1.46
use a t statistic S 15.40
n 25
 Critical Value:

t24 = ± 2.0639 Do not reject H0: not sufficient evidence that

true mean cost is different than $168
 Connection to Confidence Intervals
 For X = 172.5, S = 15.40 and n = 25, the 95%
confidence interval is:

172.5 - (2.0639) 15.4/ 25 to 172.5 + (2.0639) 15.4/ 25

166.14 ≤ μ ≤ 178.86

 Since this interval contains the Hypothesized mean (168),

we do not reject the null hypothesis at  = 0.05
 Example Two-Tail t Test in Minitab
1

p-value > α
3
So do not reject H0

One-Sample T
4
Test of mu = 168 vs not = 168

N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI T P

25 172.50 15.40 3.08 (166.14, 178.86) 1.46 0.157
 Using Minitab to calculate The p-value
for The Upper Tail t Test
1

p-value > α
3
So do not reject H0

One-Sample T

Test of mu = 52 vs > 52

4
95% Lower
N Mean StDev SE Mean Bound T P
25 53.10 10.00 2.00 49.68 0.55 0.294
 Hypothesis Tests for Proportions

 Involves categorical variables

 Two possible outcomes
 Possesses characteristic of interest
 Does not possess characteristic of interest

 Fraction or proportion of the population in the

category of interest is denoted by π
 Hypothesis Tests for Proportions
(continued)
 Sample proportion in the category of interest is
denoted by p

X number in category of interest in sample

 n 
p
sample size

 When both X and n – X are at least 5, p can

be approximated by a normal distribution with
mean and standard deviation
 μp    (1  )
σp 
n
 Hypothesis Tests for Proportions
(continued)

 The sampling  An equivalent

distribution of p is form, but in terms
approximately normal, of the number in
so the test statistic is
the category of
a ZSTAT:
interest, X:
pπ
ZSTAT  X  n
π (1  π ) ZSTAT 
n (1   )
n
 Example: Z Test for Proportion

A marketing company
claims that it receives
responses from 8% of
those surveyed. To test
this claim, a random
sample of 500 were
Check:
surveyed with 25 
responses. Test at the  X = 25

= 0.05 significance level. n-X = 475

 Z Test for Proportion: Solution
Test Statistic:
H0: π = 0.08
H1: π  0.08 p π .05  .08
ZSTAT    2.47
π (1  π ) .08(1  .08)
 = 0.05
n 500
n = 500, p = 0.05
Critical Values: ± 1.96 Decision:
Reject Reject Reject H0 at  = 0.05
Conclusion:
.025 .025
There is sufficient
-1.96 0 1.96 z evidence to reject the
-2.47 company’s claim of 8%
response rate.
 p-Value Solution
(continued)
Calculate the p-value and compare to 
(For a two-tail test the p-value is always two-tail)

Do not reject H0
Reject H0 Reject H0 p-value = 0.0136:
/2 = .025 /2 = .025
P(Z  2.47)  P(Z  2.47)
0.0068 0.0068
 2(0.0068)  0.0136

-1.96 0 1.96

Z = -2.47 Z = 2.47

Reject H0 since p-value = 0.0136 <  = 0.05

 Summary

 Presented principles of hyphothesis testing

 Tested a mean with known population variance
and unknown population variance
 Tested a proportion
 Homeworks
 Ebook: Chaper 9
 9.70
 9.78
 9.92
 9.95
 9.108