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Schiller TET 15e Chap008 PPT

The document discusses the business cycle, including classical and Keynesian views on macroeconomic stability. It describes how the economy was previously thought to self-regulate but the Great Depression challenged this view, leading Keynes to argue for government intervention to stabilize aggregate demand and support economic growth. The four phases of a business cycle are also outlined.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
41 views46 pages

Schiller TET 15e Chap008 PPT

The document discusses the business cycle, including classical and Keynesian views on macroeconomic stability. It describes how the economy was previously thought to self-regulate but the Great Depression challenged this view, leading Keynes to argue for government intervention to stabilize aggregate demand and support economic growth. The four phases of a business cycle are also outlined.

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8

CHAPTER

The Business Cycle


LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After learning about this chapter, you should know
LO8-1 The nature and history of business cycles.
LO8-2 The difference between Classical and Keynesian views of macro
stability.
LO8-3 The major macro outcomes and their determinants.
LO8-4 The nature of aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS).
LO8-5 How changes in AD and AS affect macro outcomes.

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The Business Cycle
• The Great Depression
(1929-1933) disrupted
the world’s
conventional way of
thinking about
economic activity.
• What about now? Can
a market-driven
economy be stable? If
not, can government
action stabilize it?

08-02
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The Business Cycle II
• Macroeconomics explains how and why
economies grow and what causes the
recurrent ups and downs known as the
business cycle.
• Business cycle: alternating periods of
economic growth and contraction.
• Three central questions
– How stable is a market-driven economy?
– What forces cause instability?
– What, if anything, can the government do to
promote steady economic growth?

08-03
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Stable or Unstable?

• Prior to the 1930s, conventional wisdom


was a market-driven economy was
inherently stable.
– Business cycles were short-lived, and the
market seemed to correct (regulate) itself.
– There was no need for government intervention
– that is, the prevailing policy was laissez faire.
• Laissez faire: the doctrine of “leave it
alone,” of nonintervention by government in
the market mechanism.

08-04
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A Self-Regulating Economy

• Classical economics: the economy


“self-adjusts” to any deviations from its
long-term growth.
• Wages and prices are flexible. The
producer can:
• lower prices to sell off excess goods.
• decrease output and lay off workers. Laid-off
workers compete for jobs by asking for lower
wages. At lower wages, firms will hire more
workers.

08-05
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A Self-Regulating Economy II
• Say’s Law: supply creates its own demand.
– Whatever was produced would be sold.
– All workers who sought employment
would be hired.
– This would occur because people have
time to adjust prices and wages
downward.
• The economy, therefore, is self-regulating.

08-06
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Macro Failure
• The self-adjustment mechanism did not
work during the Great Depression.
– John Maynard Keynes analyzed the
situation and concluded that self-
adjustment could not occur because of “an
insufficiency of effective demand”.
– He asserted that a market-driven economy
was, in fact, inherently unstable.
– He concluded that the government must
intervene by increasing aggregate demand.

08-07
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Government Intervention
• For an underperforming economy, Keynes
proposed that the government intervene to:
– buy more output.
– employ more people.
– provide more income transfers.
– make more money available.
• For an overheated economy, Keynes proposed
the opposite action of:
– raising taxes.
– cutting government spending.
– reducing the availability of money.
08-08
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Business Cycle
• The four parts of a modern
business cycle are
– The peak, where GDP
maximizes.
– Contraction, where
GDP declines.
– The trough, where GDP
minimizes.
– Recovery, where GDP
increases.
• These are variations around
a growth trend that slopes
upward.

08-09
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The Business Cycle in
U.S. History

The growth rate averages 3%, but the economy fluctuates


around that average, occasionally achieving negative GDP
growth, or decline.
08-10
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Terms Associated with the
Business Cycle
• Economic growth: real GDP grows
faster than 3%. (Expansion)
• Growth recession: real GDP grows, but
slower than 3%. The economy expands
too slowly.
• Recession: real GDP contracts (for two
or more consecutive quarters).
• Depression: an extremely deep
recession.
08-11
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The Great Recession of 2008-2009
• A recession began as falling home and stock
prices sapped consumer wealth and
confidence. This was coupled with a credit
crisis.
– Sales plummeted and GDP contracted.
– Unemployment reached 10%.
• The Great Recession reached its trough in
June 2009, but economic growth since then
was so slow that unemployment stayed high
for another five years; the slowest recovery in
modern U. S. history.
08-12
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A Model of the Macro Economy

08-13
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A Model of the Macro Economy II
• Macro outcomes
– Output: total value of goods and services
produced (real GDP).
– Jobs: levels of employment and
unemployment.
– Prices: average price of goods and services
(inflation).
– Growth: year-to-year expansion in
production capacity.
– International balances: value of the dollar;
trade balances.
08-14
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A Model of the Macro Economy III
• Determinants of macro performance
– Internal market forces: population
growth, spending behavior, invention and
innovation.
– External shocks: wars, natural disasters,
terrorist attacks, trade disruptions.
– Policy levers: tax policy, government
spending, changes in the availability of
money, regulation.

08-15
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The Crucial Controversy
• The crucial macro controversy is
whether pure, market-driven economies
are inherently stable or unstable.
– Keynes said “unstable.”
– Classical economists said “stable.”
• Also controversial is whether the policy
levers are effective and necessary.
– Keynes said “yes.”
– Classical economists said “no.”
08-16
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Aggregate Demand and Supply

• The forces of supply and demand are at


work in the macro economy.
– Any influence on macro outcomes must be
transmitted through supply or demand.

• The macro model shows how the macro


economy works and it consists of
aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate
supply (AS).
08-17
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Aggregate Demand
• Aggregate demand (AD): the total quantity of
output (real GDP) demanded at alternative
price levels in a given time period, ceteris
paribus.
– The collective behavior of all buyers in the
marketplace.
– It comprises all goods and services.

• AD slopes downward; people will buy more


goods and services at lower price levels, and
vice versa.
08-18
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Aggregate Demand (AD)
• Why does AD slope downward?
– Real balances effect: the cash you hold is worth
more when the price level falls, so you can buy
more.

– Foreign trade effect: lower price levels in the


United States convince customers to buy more
American goods and fewer foreign goods.

– Interest rate effect: lower interest rates promote


more borrowing and more spending.
08-19
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Aggregate Supply
• Aggregate supply (AS): the total quantity of
output (real GDP) producers are willing and
able to supply at alternative price levels in a
given time period, ceteris paribus.
– The collective behavior of all suppliers (sellers) in
the marketplace.
– It comprises all goods and services.

• AS slopes upward; suppliers will bring more


goods and services to market at higher price
levels, and vice versa.
08-20
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Aggregate Supply (AS)
• Why does AS slope upward?
– Profit effect: if there is no change in the cost of
operating a business, rising prices will improve
profits and suppliers will bring more products to the
market.

– Cost effect: cost increases make producing


products more expensive. Producers will be willing
to supply more only if prices also rise to cover those
added costs.
• At high rates of output (near productive capacity), costs
rise steeply and AS steepens sharply.
08-21
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Aggregate Demand and Supply

08-22
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Macro Equilibrium
• AS and AD summarize
the market activity of the
macro economy.
• Macro equilibrium: the
combination of price
level and real output that
is compatible with both
AD and AS.
– Where AD and AS
intersect.
– At PE and QE.

08-23
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Macro Failures
• Let QF be the goal of
full-employment GDP.

• The equilibrium output


QE is too low; it does
not reach our macro
goal.

• Also, AD and AS can


shift, meaning that any
equilibrium can be
unstable.
08-24
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AS Shifts
• AS will shift left if:
– business costs rise.
– business taxes rise.
– natural disaster occurs.

• AS will shift right if:


– business costs fall.
– business taxes fall.
– bounteous harvests occur.

• On the graph, AS shifts left


away from full-employment
GDP.

08-25
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AD Shifts
• AD will shift left if:
– spending decreases.
– expectations get worse.
– taxes increase.

• AD will shift right if:


– spending increases.
– expectations improve.
– taxes decrease.

• On the graph, AD shifts


left away from full-
employment GDP.
08-26
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Results of Shifts in AD and AS

• A shift in either AD or AS can cause the


economy to:
– go into recession.
– recover from a recession.
– stagnate or overheat.
• Business cycles likely result from
recurrent shifts of AS and AD.

08-27
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Short-Run Instability: Theories
• Classical economists believe the
economy will self-regulate and gravitate
toward full employment.
• Keynes and his followers do not believe
this. They believe the economy might get
worse without government intervention.
• In addition, there are controversies about
the shape of AS and AD curves and the
potential to shift these curves.
08-28
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Keynesian Theory
• This is a demand-side theory.
• A recession originates with a deficiency of
spending.
– AD is too far to the left.
– Policy: increase government spending to shift AD
back to the right.

• Inflation originates with an excess in spending.


– AD is too far to the right.
– Policy: increase taxes to shift AD back to the left.

08-29
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Monetary Theory
• This is also a demand-side theory.
– Emphasizes the role of money in financing
AD.
• “Tight” money might cause AD to shift too
far to the left.
– Policy: increase money supply and lower
interest rates to shift AD back to the right.
• “Easy” money might cause AD to shift too
far to the right.
– Policy: decrease money supply and raise
interest rates to shift AD back to the left. 08-30
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Demand-Side Theories

08-31
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Supply-Side Theory
• A shift in AS to the left causes output and
employment to decrease and inflation to
increase.
– This problem cannot be corrected by shifting
AD.
• Shift AD right and unemployment falls but inflation
worsens.
• Shift AD left and inflation is reduced but
unemployment rises.
– Policy: devise ways to shift AS back to the
right.
08-32
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Supply-Side Theory II

08-33
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Long-Run Self-Adjustment
• Some economists argue that short-run
instability is not as important as the long-run
trend in economic growth.
– Relies on the view that the economy can self-adjust.
– Once it adjusts to a short-run deviation, the
economy will return to its long-run growth path.

• There is a “natural” rate of output determined by


institutional factors, illustrated as the long-run
aggregate supply (LRAS) curve.

08-34
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LRAS: The “Natural”
Rate of Output
Vertical LRAS implies that
shifts in AD will affect prices
but not output in the long
run.
• If AD1 shifts to AD2, prices
rise but output stays at
QN.
• Why no increase in
output? As prices rise,
short-run profits grow, but
so do costs, wiping out
the new profits. This kills
the incentive to increase
output. 08-35
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Short- and Long-Run
Perspectives
• We live in the short run.
– Short-run variations affect our current economic
situation.
– We call on government to “fix” short-run
problems – now!
– Implemented policies take effect in the short-
run.
– In the short run, AS slopes upward.
• The macro model we will use to describe
policy implementation will have an upward-
sloping AS curve.
08-36
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Application: The Economy
Tomorrow

• Policy options during the Great Recession,


2008-2014.
• Presidents Bush and Obama had several
strategies available.
1. Shift AD right: stimulate total spending.
• Fiscal policy: the use of government tax and
spending powers to alter macroeconomic outcomes.
• Monetary policy: the use of money and credit
controls to influence macroeconomic outcomes.

08-37
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Application: The Economy
Tomorrow II
2. Shift AS right: reduce the costs of
production or otherwise stimulate more
output.
• Supply-side policy: the use of tax incentives,
deregulation, and other mechanisms to
increase the ability and willingness to produce.
• Trade policy: reduce trade barriers and lower
the value of the dollar to lower input costs.
3. Laissez faire: let the market self-adjust.

08-38
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Application: The Economy
Tomorrow III
• Laissez faire was never considered.

• President Bush implemented a stimulus package


that had a brief and small counteracting effect.

• President Obama implemented a massive fiscal


stimulus package, driving up the deficit. It was
not enough to turn the left-shifting AD curve
around until the economy began picking up
steam on its own.

08-39
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Application: The Economy
Tomorrow IV
• The Federal Reserve implemented an extremely
“easy” money policy with low interest rates.
• The Treasury and the Fed “bailed out” faltering
companies and banks.
• Some of this activist policy worked – shifted AD
right – and some didn’t. In any event, recovery
was very sluggish.
• These policy levers will be used again to combat
future economic problems in the economy.

08-40
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Revisiting the Learning Objectives

• LO8-1 Know the nature and history


of business cycles.
– Long-term growth rate of the U.S. economy
is approximately 3 percent a year.
– Some years GDP grows much faster; in
other years growth is slower.
– Macro theory tries to explain the alternating
periods of growth and contraction that
characterize the business cycle.

08-41
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Revisiting the Learning Objectives II

• LO8-2 Know the difference between


Classical and Keynesian views of
macro stability.
– Classical economists thought the
economy would self-adjust, eliminating
the need for government intervention.
– Keynes said the market economy was
inherently unstable, necessitating
government intervention.
08-42
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Revisiting the Learning Objectives
III
• LO8-3 Know the major macro
outcomes and their determinants.
– Outcomes: output, prices, jobs, and
international balances.
– Determinants: internal market
forces, external shocks, and policy
levers.

08-43
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Revisiting the Learning Objectives
IV
• LO8-4 Know the nature of aggregate
demand (AD) and aggregate supply
(AS).
– AD is a downward-sloping line on the macro
model (buyers buy more at lower price levels).
– Short-run AS is an upward-sloping line on the
macro model (producers supply more at
higher price levels).
– Long-run AS is vertical at the “natural” rate of
output.

08-44
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Revisiting the Learning Objectives
V
• LO8-5 Know how changes in AD and
AS affect macro outcomes.
– An increase in AD (shift right) will increase
output, decrease unemployment, and
increase inflation. Vice versa for a
decrease in AD (shift left).
– An increase in AS (shift right) will increase
output, decrease unemployment, and
decrease inflation. Vice versa for a
decrease in AS (shift left).
08-45
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Looking Ahead: Chapter 9

Aggregate Demand
After learning about this chapter, you should know;
• What the major components of aggregate demand
are.
• What the consumption function tells us.
• The determinants of investment spending.
• How and why AD shifts occur.
• How and when macro failure occurs.

08-46
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