Which of these is more accurate?

I. II.
 Accuracy versus Precision
Precision (Sample Size)

estimates

truth
 What’s the average result?

• If you were to roll a die once, what is the

“expected result”? (i.e. the average)
Possible results & probability: 1 die

1/6

0
1 2 3 4 5 6
 Rolling 1 die:
possible results & average

1/6

0
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Frequency Average
 What’s the average result?

• If you were to roll two dice once, what is the

expected average of the two dice?
 Rolling 2 dice:
Possible totals & likelihood

1/5

1/8

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Fre- 0.0277777 0.0555555 0.0833333 0.1111111 0.1388888 0.1666666 0.1388888 0.1111111 0.0833333 0.0555555 0.0277777
quency 77777777 55555555 33333333 11111111 88888889 66666667 88888889 11111111 33333333 55555555 77777777
9 4 3 3 4 9
 Rolling 2 dice: possible totals
11 possible totals, 36 permutations

Die 1

2 3 4 5 6 7

3 4 5 6 7 8

4 5 6 7 8 9
Die 2

5 6 7 8 9 10

6 7 8 9 10 11

7 8 9 10 11 12
 Rolling 2 dice:
Average score of dice & likelihood

1/5

1/8
Likelihood

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6

Frequency 0.0277777 0.0555555 0.0833333 0.1111111 0.1388888 0.1666666 0.1388888 0.1111111 0.0833333 0.0555555 0.0277777
77777777 55555555 33333333 11111111 88888889 66666667 88888889 11111111 33333333 55555555 77777777
9 4 3 3 4 9
 Outcomes and Permutations

Putting together permutations, you get:

1. All possible outcomes
2. The likelihood of each of those outcomes

Each block within a column represents one possible

permutation (to obtain that average)

2.5

Each column represents one possible outcome (average result)

 Rolling 3 dice: Distribution of Average
16 results 318, 216 permutations

1/8

1 1 1/3 1 2/3 2 2 1/3 2 2/3 3 3 1/3 3 2/3 4 4 1/3 4 2/3 5 5 1/3 5 2/3 6
Fre- 0.0046 0.0138 0.0277 0.0462 0.0694 0.0972 0.1157 0.125 0.125 0.1157 0.0972 0.0694 0.0462 0.0277 0.0138 0.0046
quency 29629 88888 77777 96296 44444 22222 40740 40740 22222 44444 96296 77777 88888 29629
62962 88888 77777 29629 44444 22222 74074 74074 22222 44444 29629 77777 88888 62962
964 89 79 64 45 22 1 1 22 45 64 79 89 964
 Rolling 4 dice:
21 results, 1296 permutations

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 3.5 3.75 4 4.25 4.5 4.75 5 5.25 5.5 5.75 6
 Rolling 5 dice:
26 results, 7776 permutations

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6
 Rolling 10 dice:
50 results, >60 million permutations

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%
1 7 3 .5 7 3 2 67 33 .5 67 33 3 67 34 .5 67 34 4 67 34 .5 67 34 5 67 34 .5 66 34
6 66 333 1 666 333 6 6 33 2 6
6 3 3 6 6 33 3 6
6 3 3 6 6 33 4 6
6 3 3 66 333
5 6 3
6 6 3 3 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 6 66 333
66 33 66 33 66 33 66 33 66 33 66 33 66 33 66 33 66 33 66 33
6 66 333 6 66 333 6 66 333 6 66 333 6 66 333 6 66 333 6 66 333 6 66 333 6 66 333 6 66 333
6 3 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 3
16 33 66 83 16 33 66 83 16 33 66 83 16 33 66 83 16 33 66 83
1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.

Looks like a bell curve, or a normal distribution

 Rolling 30 dice:
150 results, 2 x 10 23 permutations

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
1 1.72222222222222 2.44444444444444 3.16666666666666 3.88888888888888 4.6111111111111 5.33333333333333

>95% of all rolls will yield an average between 3 and

 Rolling 100 dice:
500 results, 6 x 10 77 permutations
2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
1 1.68333333333333 2.36666666666666 3.04999999999999 3.73333333333332 4.41666666666668 5.10000000000004 5.78333333333341

>99% of all rolls will yield an average between 3

 Rolling dice: 2 lessons

1. The more dice you roll, the closer most averages are to
the true average (the distribution gets “tighter”)

-THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS-

2. The more dice you roll, the more the distribution of

possible averages (the sampling distribution) looks like
a bell curve (a normal distribution)

-THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM-

 Accuracy versus Precision
Precision (Sample Size)
truth

estimates

truth truth