Urban Water Supply

Engineering
(WSEE 3111)

for 3rd years wsee students

Bezu.A(MSc) 2023E./2024
 CHAPTER TWO
Population and Water Demand
•Basic requirements for safe water
.- Drinking: 2–3 liters/day
-20–50 liters/capita/day for cooking and basic hygiene
Minimum acceptable standard for living (WHO)
• The estimated water supply coverage for Ethiopia is
34% for rural and 97 % for urban and the country’s
water supply coverage 44%.
• Access to water-supply services is defined as the
availability of at least 20 litres per person per day
from an "improved" source within 1 km of the
user's dwelling.

2
Quantity of water depend on:-
 Population
 Demand
 Design period

3
1. Population forecasting
5
6
7
8
9
10
 a. Arithmetical increase method
• this method is generally applicable to a large and old city, whose
scope of further expansion has reached to saturation limit.

• For small, average or comparatively new cities, if this method of

population forecasting is employed, we shall likely get low
result than actual value.

• In this method the average increase in population per decade is

calculated from the past census reports.

• It is based upon the hypothesis that the rate of growth is constant

Arithmetical increase method,,,
Where; Pn = population at some time in the future
P0 = present population n = no. of decades b/n present and future
t = the period of projection
X = average (arithmetic mean) of population increases in the known
decades
 b. Geometric increase method
• This method is based on the assumption that the
percentage increase in population remains
constant.
• Thus, the population at the end of n years or
decades is given as
Geometric increase method,,,
 Cont…..
• K can be found by either by arithmetic average method
or geometric average method
(i) By arithmetic average method

(ii) By geometric average method

• Since this method gives higher values and hence should

be applied for a new industrial town at the beginning of
 Example 1.1
• The population of a town as per the senses records
are given below for the years 1945 to 2005.
Assuming that the scheme of water supply will
commence to function from 2010, it is required to
estimate the population after 30 years, i.e. in 2040
and also, the intermediate population i.e. 15 years
after 2010.
• Work out the probable population using arithmetic
increase and , geometric increase method.
Population from 1945-2005
Solution
 c. Incremental increase method
• The increment in increase is determined during each
decade in progressively increasing or decreasing,
depending upon whether the average of the
incremental increase in the past data is positive or
negative
• The population for a future decade is worked out by adding the
mean arithmetic increase Xto the last known population and
added the average of the incremental increase Y, once for the
first decade, twice for the second decade, trice for the third decade,
and so on.
 d. Decreasing rate of growth method
 Since the rate of increase in population goes on
reducing, as the cities reach towards saturation, a
method which makes use of the decrease in the
percentage increase and gives rational results.

 In this method, the average decrease in the

percentage increase is worked out, and is then
subtracted from the latest percentage increase for
each successive decade.
 Cont….
• The growth rate can be modeled by assuming the
growth rate is a function of the difference between
the saturation population and the current population
Cont….
Cont…
 Example
 The growth rate of the population of a city is
decreasing. Ten years ago, the population was
65,145 inhabitants , currently it is 70,000 inhabitants
and it should ultimately reach 100,000 inhabitants.
a) Calculate the annual decreasing growth rate of this
population.
b) Estimate what the population will be in 12 years.
 solution
a) Calculation of the annual growth rate, K

b) Calculation of the population in 12 years

 e. Logistic curve method
 This method relies in the hypothesis that in a given
community, population growth goes through three
distinct periods; a slow start, followed by rapid
growth, then gradual slowing as the population
tends towards saturation.

 This phenomenon is graphically represented by an

S curve when the variation of the population is
plotted as a function of time on graph paper.
Cont…
 Cont…
 This method is appropriate when the population of
the given community is known over a certain
number of years.

 One chooses three population P1, P2 & P3,

evaluated at regularly (t2 – t1 = t3-t2 = n)

 Population P1 corresponds to slow growth period:

P2 rapid growth period and P3 decreasing growth
rate period.
Population Pn is calculated at time tn using
 Solution
• Calculate the saturation population, S
Calculate the population in 1980
36
37
38
 Assignment 1
1.Estimate the 2030 population of a town whose census records
is shown below.

Year 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013

Population: 5,020 7,152 9,000 30,711 50,774

Find:-
i. Arithmetic method
ii. Geometric Method
iii. Incremental Increase method and
iV. Declining decrease method
39
2

40
2. WATER DEMAND

41
42
Graph of Water Demand

43
Example: Water use in the U.S.

Industrial Power
Rural 3% 3%
4%
Public
Utility
9%

Agriculture
81%

Consumptive Use in the U.S.

45
46
47
48
 Con’t…….
Factor affecting water demand
 Climatic conditions
 Cost of water
 Living Standards
 Industries
 Quality of water supply
 Size of city

49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
 Different Draft
i. Qhr-avg = Qday-avg
24
ii. Qday-max=1.5xQday-avg

iii. Qhr-max= 1.5xQday-max

24
Hence Qhr-max=1.5x1.5Qday-avg =10%Qday-avg(approximate)
24
NBFU… iv. Qf=231.6P [1-0.01P]
where:- Qf in m3/hr p in 1000

62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
NB: Use this formula by changing the Ci by F…..and F by Ci
75
76
77
NB: Use this formula by changing the Ci by F…..and F by Ci

78
79
 Water Supply Components
Design Capacity of different components of water supply scheme:-
i. Intake structure for fetching the raw water from source
(groundwater or surface water,)
Qday-max or Qday-avg w/c is greater

ii. Pipe main (Type I and II)

Qday-max
iii. Filters and other units in Treatment plant
1.6 Qday-avg or Qday-max w/c is greater

iv. Pumps
a. Law Lift
2Qday-avg *af or 4/3 Qday-max * af w/c is greater

b. High Lift
3Qday-avg * af or 4/3 Qhr-max * af w/c is greater
80
 Con’t
V. Distribution system and type III pipe

Qhr-max or Qcd = Qday-max + Qf w/c is greater

Assignment 4

2. A water supply scheme is to be designed for a city of

100,000. Estimate
a) The kinds of drafts which may be required using an
average water consumption of 250l/c/d
b) The capacities of the major components of the
proposed water works using river as a source of supply,
the pumps operated for 8 hrs .
81
82
83
 Mode of water services
The following common three types of service
levels have been adopted for urban centers of
Ethiopia.
- HOUSE connections(HC)
- Yard connections(RC)
- Public connections(pc)
The population percentage distribution for each mode of service is determined
by sample survey and published statistical data in to consideration.
In order to attribute certain characteristics to each town, the towns have been
grouped into categories according to their population size.

84
 CONT,,,,
As per the GTP-2 water supply service level standard for towns,
categories of towns is prepared as indicated here below;
- Category 1 towns/cities (towns/cities with a population more
than 1 million),
- Category 2 towns/cities (towns/cities with a population in the
range of 100,000-1million),
- Category 3 towns/cities (towns/cities with a population in the
range of 50,000 -100,000),
- Category 4 towns/cities (towns/cities with a population in the
range of 20,000-50,000)
- Category-5 towns/cities (towns/cities with a population less
than 20,000)

85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
 Example
3.For a town having population of 60,000 estimate average daily demand of
water, Max. daily demand and Coincident Draft. Assume industrial use 10%,
institutional & commercial use 15 %, public use 5% and live stock 10% of
domestic demand. Take per capita consumption of 50 l/day and leakage to be
5%.
Solution
P = 60,000
Domestic = 50 x 60,000 = 3000000 l/day= 3000 m3/day
Industrial = 0.10 x 3000 m3/day = 300 m3/day,
Inst & com. = 0.15 x 3000 m3/day = 450 m3/day
public = 0.05 x 3000 m3/day = 150 m3/day
live stock = 0.10 x 3000 m3/day = 300 m3/day
leakage = 0.05 x 3000 m3/day = 150 m3/day
Total average daily demand = 4,350 m3/day
Qday-max=1.5 x Qday-avg.=1.5x4350= 6,525m3/day
Qf=(231.6p[1-0.01p]= (231.660[1-0.0160]=1655m3/hr=1655x24=39,720m3/day
Qcd=Qday-max. + Qf =6525+39720= 46,245m3/day

94
 Assignment 3
1. A water supply scheme is to be designed for a city kinds of
drafts which may be required using an of 360,000. Estimate
a) The average water consumption of 270 l/c/d
b) The capacities of the major components of the proposed water
works using river as a source of supply, the pumps operated for 6
hrs .
2. For a town having population of 110,000 estimate average daily
demand of water, Max. daily demand and Coincident Draft.
Assume industrial use 15%, institutional & commercial use 12
%, public use 5% and live stock 10% of domestic demand. Take
per capita consumption of 80 l/day and leakage to be 5%.

95
 Cont,,,
3. A city with a present population of 58000 persons used a total of 9526500 m3of water during the
last 12 months. On the maximum day during that period 42000000 liters of water were used.
Estimate the average and maximum daily flows to be expected in 20 years, when the population is
estimated to be 72000.
4. Calculate the water requirements for a community that will reach a population of 120000
at the design year. The estimated municipal water demand for the community is 300 l/c/d. Calculate
the fire flow, design capacity of the water treatment plant, and design capacity of the water
distribution system. Use NBFU formula for fire flow.
5. A city of 40000 residents has an average per capita water demand of 150 l/c/d. The
average size of institutional and commercial areas is 200 ha and that of industrial areas is 100 ha.
The expected unit water demands are 20 m3/ha/d for institutional and commercial areas, and
15 m3/ha/d for industries. The public water demand and unaccounted for system losses are
estimated to be 5 % and 15% of the total water demand, respectively. Calculate the total water
demand, excluding fire flow

96
 Cont,,,,
1. The per capita water demand of a small town having population census records
indicated in Table below, is given by q = 150 – 99.6e-0.04t where, q = per capita
demand[l/c/d] t is time in years starting from 1985
Year 1985 1995 2005

Population 5000 7500 9480

Moreover, from historical water usage data the peaking factors for maximum day and
peak hour water demands are estimated to be 175% and 250% of the average day demand,
respectively. Determine

a. The design capacity of a treatment plant if it is to serve the town until the end of 2020.

b. The design capacity of the distribution main

Use the decreasing rate of increase method for population forecasting and assume a fire
demand of 3 m3/min.

97