POPULATION

DYNAMICS
Chairperson: Presented by,
LECTURER Ameen Aksher
MSc Nutrition
Dr.Sushma Meled and Dietetics ,
DEPARTMENT OF JNMC
PUBLIC HEALTH,
JNMC , KAHER
Content
• Demography, Demographic Transition and Demographic Cycle
• Population Structure
• Vital Statistics
• Implications of Vital Statistics
Introduction
• Population dynamics, as applied to the field of community nutrition, is
a vital framework for understanding and addressing the nutritional
needs, challenges, and health outcomes of communities.
• It involves the systematic study of how the size, composition, and
dietary habits of populations change over time and how various factors
influence these changes.
• In the field of community nutrition, population dynamics plays a
central role in shaping public health policies, interventions, and
strategies to promote well-being.
Demography, Demographic Transition and
Demographic Cycle
Demography:
The scientific study of human population is termed as 'Demography'. It
focuses attention on three readily observable human phenomena:

a) Changes in population size (growth or decline),

b) The composition of the population, and
c) The distribution of population in space.
Demographic Transition :
• Demographic transition is a concept that describes the process
through which societies transition from high birth and death rates to
low birth and death rates as they undergo economic and social
development.
• This transition typically occurs in several stages and is associated
with changes in population growth, age distribution, and overall
demographic structure. It is an important framework for understanding
how populations change over time.
Demographic Cycle :
It is a cycle which evolves as population gsows in size. The histo~y of
world population suggests that there is a demographic cycle of five
stages through which a nation passes. These stages of demographic
cycle are enumerated herewith
a) First Stage High Stationary - This stage is characterized by high
birth rate and a high death rate neutralizing each other and hence the
population remains stationary. India was in this stage till 1920.
b) Second Stage - Early Expanding - The death rate begins to decline
but birth rate remains high, thereby resulting in increase in
population.
• c) Third Stage Late Expanding - The death rate declines further and
birth rate begins to fall. The population continues to grow because
births exceed deaths. India appears to be in this stage at the moment
where there is high growth with definite signs of slowing down.
• d) Fourth Stage Low Stationary - This stage is characterized by low
death rate and low birth rate, as a result of which the population
becomes stationary. This is also called the zero population growth.
Most of the developed nations have undergone demographic transition
shifting from high birth and high death rates to low birth and low
death rates and are currently in this phase.
• e) Fifth Stage Declining - There are more deaths than births resulting
in decline in population. This is also called the negative growth phase.
Some countries like Sweden and Hungary have entered this stage.
Socially, this stage of demographic transition is not desirable as it
results in total changes in age structure, leading to progressive aging
of the population
Population Structure
The structure of population can be viewed as to how the population is
coin posed of in terms of age and sex.
Factors
Sex Composition of the Population
Age Composition
Fertility Behaviour
 Sex Composition of the Population
• Sex composition of human population is one of the basic demographic
characteristics, which is extremely vital for any meaningful
demographic analysis. The sex composition of the population is
affected by sex ratio at birth, differentials in mortality conditions of
males and females and sex selective migration.
• What is Sex Ratio.?
Sex Ratio is defined as "the number of females per 1000 males".
Age Composition
• Age composition refers to the distribution of individuals across various
age groups within a population. It's a crucial demographic indicator that
provides insights into the structure, characteristics, and dynamics of a
population. Key components of age composition include:
1.Youth Population: This typically encompasses children and adolescents,
usually defined as individuals under the age of 15 or 18, depending on the
specific demographic analysis.
2.Working-Age Population: These are individuals usually between the
ages of 15 to 64 or 15 to 59, considered to be of working age and often the
main contributors to the labor force.
3.Elderly Population: This category comprises individuals aged 65 and
older or sometimes individuals aged 60 and older, representing the elderly
segment of the population.
 Fertility Behaviour
• Fertility behavior refers to the patterns, choices, and actions related to
reproduction within a population. It encompasses various factors that
influence individuals or couples in deciding the number of children to
have, the timing of childbirth, and the use of contraception or family
planning methods. Understanding fertility behavior involves examining
several elements:
• Fertility Rates: The actual number of children born to individuals or
within a population over a certain period. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have
during her reproductive years.
• Factors Influencing Fertility Behavior:
1.Cultural and Societal Norms 4.Access to Healthcare
2. Economic Conditions 5.Urbanization
3.Education
• Desired Family Size: Individuals or couples often have an ideal
number of children they wish to have based on personal preferences,
cultural influences, and socio-economic factors.
• Birth Spacing: The time intervals between births, known as birth
spacing, can be a part of fertility behavior. Longer intervals between
children can influence family size and maternal health.
• Contraception Use: The availability and use of contraceptive
methods play a role in controlling fertility rates by allowing
individuals or couples to plan pregnancies.
• Infertility: Challenges in conceiving can also affect fertility behavior,
leading some couples to seek medical assistance or make decisions
about family size.
Vital Statistics
• Vital statistics are conventionally numerical records of marriage, birth,
sickness and death by which the health and growth of community may
be studied.
• And it is a branch of biometry that deals with data and law of human
mortality, morbidity and demography.
Implications of Vital Statistics
• Birth rate
The birth rate refers to the number of live births per 1,000 people in a
population within a specified period, usually a year. It is calculated by
dividing the number of live births during a specific period by the total
population, then multiplying by 1,000 to express it per thousand people.
• Death rates
The death rate, also known as the mortality rate, represents the number
of deaths per 1,000 individuals in a population within a specific period,
typically a year. It is calculated by dividing the number of deaths during
a specified time by the total population, then multiplying by 1,000.
• Regional diversity
Regional diversity refers to the differences in characteristics, cultures,
languages, demographics, economies, and more across various
geographical areas or regions within a country or globally. It
encompasses cultural, ethnic, environmental, and socio-economic
differences among different areas.
• Net Reproduction Rate
The Net Reproduction Rate represents the average number of daughters
that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she passed through her
childbearing years conforming to the given set of age-specific fertility
and mortality rates. An NRR above 1.0 indicates population growth,
while below 1.0 suggests population decline.
• Maternal Mortality Ratio
The Maternal Mortality Ratio is the number of maternal deaths per
100,000 live births due to complications during pregnancy, childbirth, or
within 42 days after termination of pregnancy, irrespective of the duration
and site of the pregnancy. It's a crucial indicator of the quality of
healthcare for pregnant women.

• Infant mortality rate (IMR) and Child mortality rate (U5MR)

The Infant Mortality Rate is the number of deaths of infants under one
year old per 1,000 live births. The Under-5 Mortality Rate represents the
probability of a child dying before reaching the age of five per 1,000 live
births. These rates are essential indicators of the health and well-being of
infants and young children within a population.
Growth
• "Growth" in the context of population dynamics typically refers to
population growth, which involves changes in the total number of
individuals within a population over a specific period.

Population growth can be influenced by several factors:

• Birth Rate: High birth rates contribute to population growth. When
the number of births exceeds the number of deaths, the population
grows.
• Death Rate: High death rates can slow down population growth. If
the number of deaths surpasses the number of births, the population
may decrease.
• Migration: Movement of people into or out of a region impacts
population growth. Immigration adds to the population, while
emigration reduces it.
The rate of population growth is often measured as a percentage and
can be calculated using the following formula:

If the number of births exceeds the number of deaths and if there is a
positive net migration, the population will grow. Conversely, if the
number of deaths exceeds births and if there is a negative net
migration, the population will decline.
Reference
1. VITAL STATISTICS DIVISION | Government of India (censusindia.gov.i
n)
2. IGNOU Unit-6.pdf
3. Fertility Behavior - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics