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This document discusses probabilistic reasoning in artificial intelligence. It introduces two main methods for handling uncertainty: Bayes' rule and Bayesian statistics. It provides examples of using Bayes' theorem to calculate conditional probabilities. It also describes Bayesian belief networks, which consist of a directed acyclic graph and conditional probability tables to model relationships between variables under uncertainty.

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39 views11 pages

Ai Pro

This document discusses probabilistic reasoning in artificial intelligence. It introduces two main methods for handling uncertainty: Bayes' rule and Bayesian statistics. It provides examples of using Bayes' theorem to calculate conditional probabilities. It also describes Bayesian belief networks, which consist of a directed acyclic graph and conditional probability tables to model relationships between variables under uncertainty.

Uploaded by

ermiyaszewdu266
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Probabilistic Reasoning in Artificial

Intelligence
Uncertainty
Need of Probabilistic Reasoning in AI
• Unpredictable outcomes
• Predicates are too large to handle
• Unknown error occurs
In probabilistic reasoning, there are two methods to solve
difficulties with uncertain knowledge:
• Bayes' rule
• Bayesian Statistics
• Probability: Probability can be defined as chance of
occurrence of an uncertain event. It is the numerical measure
of the likelihood that an event will occur. The value of
probability always remains between 0 and 1.
0 ≤ P(X) ≤ 1, where P(X) is the probability of an event X.
• P(X) = 0, indicates total uncertainty in an event X.
• P(X) =1, indicates total certainty in an event X.
Bayes' Theorem in Artificial Intelligence
• Question: From a standard deck of playing cards, a single card is drawn.
The probability that the card is king is 4/52, then calculate posterior
probability P(King|Face), which means the drawn face card is a king card.
• Solution:

• P(king): probability that the card is King= 4/52= 1/13


• P(face): probability that a card is a face card= 3/13
• P(Face|King): probability of face card when we assume it is a king = 1
• Putting all values in equation (i) we will get:
Bayesian Belief Network
Bayesian Network can be used for building models from data and experts
opinions, and it consists of two parts:
• Directed Acyclic Graph
• Table of conditional probabilities
The generalizedform of Bayesian network that representsand solve
decision problems under uncertain knowledge is known as an Influence
diagram.
Note: It is used to represent conditional dependencies.
A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes and Arcs (directed links),
where:
• Each node corresponds to the random variables, and a variable can be continuous or
discrete.
• Arc or directed arrows represent the causal relationship or conditional probabilities between
random variables. These directed links or arrows connect the pair of nodes in the graph.
These links represent that one node directly influence the other node, and if there is no
directed link that means that nodes are independent with each other
• Note: The Bayesian network graph does not contain any cyclic graph. Hence, it is known as
a directed acyclic graph or DAG.
• The Bayesian network has mainly two components:
1. Causal Component
2. Actual numbers
• Each node in the Bayesian network has condition probability distribution P(Xi |Parent(Xi) ),
which determines the effect of the parent on that node.
• Bayesian network is based on Joint probability distribution and conditional probability.
• Example: Harry installed a new burglar alarm at his home to detect burglary. The
alarm reliably responds at detecting a burglary but also responds for minor
earthquakes. Harry has two neighbors David and Sophia, who have taken a
responsibility to inform Harry at work when they hear the alarm. David always calls
Harry when he hears the alarm, but sometimes he got confused with the phone
ringing and calls at that time too. On the other hand, Sophia likes to listen to high
music, so sometimes she misses to hear the alarm. Here we would like to compute
the probability of Burglary Alarm.

• Problem: Calculate the probability that alarm has sounded, but there is neither a
burglary, nor an earthquake occurred, and David and Sophia both called the
Harry.
Note: List of all events occurring in this network:
Burglary (B)
Earthquake(E)
Alarm(A)
David Calls(D)
Sophia calls(S)
• From the formula
of joint
distribution, we
can write the
problem statement
in the

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