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Esrc Abm

Agent-based simulation is a technique that models systems as collections of autonomous decision-making agents to assess emergent phenomena. It allows researchers to directly model agent behaviors, interactions, and how systems evolve over time. Examples include simulating market dynamics, opinion formation, resource management, and the emergence of segregation from individual preferences. The methodology focuses on representing real mechanisms and is useful for building predictive models and participatory simulations for learning. Resources for learning more include academic journals, textbooks, conferences, and mailing lists.

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75 views29 pages

Esrc Abm

Agent-based simulation is a technique that models systems as collections of autonomous decision-making agents to assess emergent phenomena. It allows researchers to directly model agent behaviors, interactions, and how systems evolve over time. Examples include simulating market dynamics, opinion formation, resource management, and the emergence of segregation from individual preferences. The methodology focuses on representing real mechanisms and is useful for building predictive models and participatory simulations for learning. Resources for learning more include academic journals, textbooks, conferences, and mailing lists.

Uploaded by

api-3773589
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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agent-based simulation:

a very short introduction


Nigel Gilbert
University of Surrey

Guildford UK
overview

 what is it?
 why is it interesting?
 what can you do with it?
 how can you learn more?

Text

… all in 20 minutes!
what is it?

 agent
a computer program (or, more usually, a
part of a program)
which represents some real world actor
e.g. a person, an organisation, a nation
with inputs (‘perception’), outputs
(actions) and rules (what it should do)
Representations

Goal
Communication

Communication

Action
Perception

Environment
is it qualitative or quantitative?

Multi-agent systems can handle all types


of data
quantitative attributes
age, size of organisation
qualitative
ordinal or categorical (e.g. ethnicity),
relational (e.g. I am linked to him and her)
vague
A sends B a message about one time in three
methodological issues

 prediction vs understanding

 operationalist vs realist
why is it interesting?

 Structure
structure is emergent from agent interaction
this can be directly modelled
 Agency
agents have goals, beliefs and act
this can be directly modelled
 Dynamics
things change, develop, evolve
agents move (in space and social location) and learn
these can be directly modelled
compare with…
 the traditional paradigm:
linear
positive feedback is difficult to deal with
correlation
real mechanisms are not represented
often static
dynamics are not modelled

 MAS brings into focus:


emergence
self-organisation
learning
what can you do with it?
 models of markets
 understanding ethnic segregation
 opinion dynamics
 managing resources
 political mobilization
 the evolution of language
….
sugarscape
 agents are located on a square grid
 they trade with their neighbours
 there are two commodities: sugar and spice.
all agents consume both these, but at different
rates
 each agent has its own welfare function,
relating its relative preference for sugar or spice to
the amount it has ‘in stock’ and the amount it
needs

Epstein, Joshua M and Robert Axtell. 1996. Growing artificial societies: social science from the
bottom up. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
agent strategies

 an agent can see a few cells around it


 it can move to an adjacent cell to replenish its
sugar and spice stocks
 it can also trade (barter) with an other
neighbouring agent
 the price is negotiated between the them
 they trade when both would gain in welfare
bottom-up demand and supply curves

Click to view animation


segregation
 Thomas Schelling proposed a theory† to explain
the persistence of racial segregation in an
environment of growing tolerance
 He proposed: If individuals will tolerate racial
diversity, but will not tolerate being in a minority
in their locality, segregation will still be the
equilibrium situation

†Schelling, Thomas C. (1971) Dynamic Models of Segregation.


Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1:143-186.
a segregation model

 grid 500 by 500


 1500 agents, 1050 green, 450 red
so: 1000 vacant patches
 each agent has a tolerance
A green agent is ‘happy’ when the ratio of greens
to reds in its Moore neighbourhood (i.e. in the
8 surrounding patches) is more than its
tolerance
and vice versa for reds
tipping

 unhappy agents move along a random walk


to a patch where they are happy
 emergence is a result of ‘tipping’
If one red enters a neighbourhood with 4 reds
already there, a previously happy green will
become unhappy and move elsewhere, either
contributing to a green cluster or possibly
upsetting previously happy reds and so on…
values of tolerance above 30% give a clear
display of clustering: ‘ghettos’
clusters remain even when agents come
and go

5% of agents ‘die’
and are replaced with
agents of random colour
every timestep
managing resources
participatory simulation
 replace some of the computational agents by
humans...
 the multi-agent system becomes a multi-user
strategy game
 the benefits:
researchers can observe what people do in a given
(simulated) situation
participants can learn about implications of their decisions
including the reactions of others
the Zurich Water Game

 a drought in summer 1976 led to a shock to Zurich’s water


supply system
capacity increased to guarantee a secure supply
but over-supply leads to risk of stagnant water
water demand has since fallen as a result of water saving
technology and changing business behaviour
 the water utility was regarded as inefficient due to high
fixed costs
 demand management through pricing would allow parts of
the system to be closed
but the tariffs are ultimately controlled by public through
referenda
The FIRMA Project is supported by European Union's Framework 5 Programme for Research and Development, and by the
European Commission as part of its Key Action on Sustainable Management and Quality of Water programme (contract EVK1-
CT1999-00016)
how can you learn more?

 journals
 textbooks
 associations
 mailing lists warning:
advertising follows…
journals

http://www.soc.surrey.ac.uk/JASSS/
paper stuff
news and events

 conferences
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/admin/calendar.php
 news
http://www.jiscmail.ac.uk

and then subscribe to ‘simsoc’ list


 European Social Simulation Association
(essa)
http://essa.cfpm.org/
summary: agent-based simulation

 a technique for theorising


that is sympathetic to the complex,
dynamic social world
 a methodology
that is essentially realist
 a practical tool
that can have real world utility
JASSS
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/

conferences
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/admin/calendar.php

news
http://www.jiscmail.ac.uk

and then subscribe to ‘simsoc’ list

European Social Simulation Association


(essa)
http://essa.cfpm.org/
end

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