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Paradox & Fallacy 7

This document discusses several types of logical fallacies including paradoxes, prediction paradoxes, and the gambler's fallacy. A paradox is a seemingly contradictory statement that may be true, like the barber paradox where it is unclear who shaves the barber. A prediction paradox occurs when reasoning leads to an impossible conclusion, like thinking a test can't happen based on the date. The gambler's fallacy involves thinking past random events impact future probabilities when in fact each new event has the same odds.

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16 views11 pages

Paradox & Fallacy 7

This document discusses several types of logical fallacies including paradoxes, prediction paradoxes, and the gambler's fallacy. A paradox is a seemingly contradictory statement that may be true, like the barber paradox where it is unclear who shaves the barber. A prediction paradox occurs when reasoning leads to an impossible conclusion, like thinking a test can't happen based on the date. The gambler's fallacy involves thinking past random events impact future probabilities when in fact each new event has the same odds.

Uploaded by

domhzzzzzz
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Paradox &

Fallacy
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Paradox
 A statement that is seemingly
contradictory or opposed to common
sense and yet is perhaps true
 A self-contradictory statement that at first
seems true
 An argument that apparently derives self-
contradictory conclusions by valid
deduction from acceptable premises
Fallacy
 A fallacy is an incorrect result arrived at by
apparently correct, though actually
specious reasoning.

 If a drink is made with boiling water, it will be hot.


 This drink was not made with boiling water.
 This drink is not hot.
The Student’s Dilemma
 “The test will next week, by next Friday at the latest,
and you will not know in advance the day on which the
test will be given.”

 The student has the comforting thought, “The test can’t


be on Friday because I would know that in advance if I
hadn’t taken it on Thursday. So the latest day it can be
is the Thursday. But it can’t be then, because I would
know that if I hadn’t written it on Wednesday…” and so
on.

 So he works his way back through all the days to the


present and is relieved to discover that the test cannot
take place.
Wait a minute…
 It comes as a shock to the student when
the test is on the following Tuesday!

 This story is an example of a prediction


paradox, an apparently impeccable line of
reasoning resulted in a conclusion that is
manifestly false.
The Barber Paradox
 The barber paradox – Bertrand Russell
 Suppose there is a town with just one barber, who is
male. In this town, every man keeps himself clean-
shaven, and he does so by doing exactly one of two
things:
 Shaving himself, or
 going to the barber to be shaved.
 Another way to state this is:
 The barber is a man in town who shaves those and only
those men in town who do not shave themselves.
So…
 Who shaves the barber?
This question results in a paradox
because, according to the statement
above, he can either be shaven by:
himself, or the barber (which happens to
be himself).
Who does it?
 However, none of these possibilities are
valid. This is because:
 If the barber does shave himself, then the
barber (himself) must not shave himself.
 If the barber does not shave himself,
then he (the barber) must shave himself.

 Flip some coins


The Gambler’s Fallacy
 When an individual erroneously believes
that the onset of a certain random event
is less likely to happen following an event
or a series of events. This line of thinking
is incorrect because past events do not
change the probability that certain events
will occur in the future.
Heads you lose
 For example, consider a series of 20 coin
flips that have all landed with the "heads"
side up. Under the gambler's fallacy, a
person might predict that the next coin flip
is more likely to land with the "tails" side
up
Probability
 This line of thinking represents an
inaccurate understanding of probability
because the likelihood of a fair coin
turning up heads is always 50%. Each
coin flip is an independent event, which
means that any and all previous flips have
no bearing on future flips.

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