Chapter FIVE

PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND

NETWORK MODEL
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
What is project
A project is a temporary effort to create a unique product or
service.
Projects usually include constraints and risks regarding cost,
schedule or performance outcome.
Project management is the application of knowledge, skills,
tools, and techniques to project activities in order to meet or
exceed stakeholder needs and expectations from a project.
Meeting or exceeding stakeholder needs and expectations
invariably involves balancing competing demands among:
 Scope, time, cost, and quality
 Stakeholders with differing needs and expectations
 BRIEF HISTORY OF CPM/PERT
CPM/PERT or Network Analysis as the technique is
sometimes called, developed along two parallel streams, one
industrial and the other military.
CPM was the discovery of M.R. Walker and J.E. Kelly
1957.
The first test was made in 1958, when CPM was applied to
the construction of a new chemical plant.
PERT was devised in 1958 for the POLARIS missile
program by the Program Evaluation Branch of the Special
Projects office of the U.S. Navy.
Both use same calculations, almost similar

Main difference is probabilistic and deterministic in

time estimation
 BY USING PERT/CPM, MANAGERS ARE ABLE TO
OBTAIN:

1. A graphical display of project activities

2. An estimate of how long the project will take.

3. An indication of which activities are the most critical to

timely completion of the project.

4. An indication of how long any activity can be delayed with

out lengthening the project.
 BASIC DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PERT & CPM

 PERT: It assumes a probability distribution for the

duration of each activity
It is used for one-time projects involving activities of non-
repetitive nature.
 CPM: was developed in connection with a construction
and maintenance project in which duration of each
activity was known with certainty.

It is used for completion of projects involving activities of

repetitive nature.
PERT / CPM NETWORK MODELS
 PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) and CMP
(Critical Path Method) are two of the most widely used
techniques for planning, scheduling and controlling large-scale
projects.
 By using PERT / CMP, managers are able to obtain:

 A graphical display of project activities.

 An estimate of how long the project will take.
 An indication of which activities are the most critical to timely
completion of project.
 An indication of how long any activity can be delayed without
lengthening the project completion.
 One of the main features of PERT/CPM is the use of a network or
precedence diagram to depict major project activities and their
sequential relationships.
 Some of the terms commonly used in networks are defined below.

A. Activity
 Activity is a physically identifiable part of a project which consumes
time and resources.
 In the network, activity is represented by an arrow, the tail of which
represents the start and the head, the finish of the activity.
 i)Predecessor activity- activity must be completed immediately prior to
the start of another activity.
 ii)Successor activity- activity that cannot be started until one or more
activities are completed but immediately succeed them.
 iii)Concurrent activity- activities which can be accomplished
simultaneously.
CONT’D
a) Event
 The beginning and end points of an activity are called events or
nodes.
 Event is a point in the time and does not consume any resource. It
is generally represented by a numbered circle.
 The head event has always a number higher than the fail
even/node
 Activity
1 2

A, Path is unbroken chain of activity arrows connecting the initial

event to some other event.
 It is a sequence of activities that leads from the starting node to
the finishing node.
B, Network is the graphical representation of logically and
sequentially connected arrows and nodes representing activities
and events of a project.
THE PROJECT NETWORK
Network analysis is the general name given to certain specific techniques which
can be used for the planning, management and control of projects.
Network:- Shows the sequential relationships among activities using nodes and
arrows.
Use of nodes and arrows

Arrows an arrow leads from tail to head directionally. Indicate

Activity.
 Activity:- A task or a certain amount of work required in the project which
requires time to complete
Nodes A node is represented by a circle
Indicate EVENT, a point in time where one or more activities start and/or finish.
 SITUATIONS IN NETWORK DIAGRAM
B
A
A must finish before either B or C can start

C
A
C both A and B must finish before C can start

10
B

A
C both A and C must finish before either of B or D can
start
B
D

A
B
A must finish before B can start
Dummy both A and C must finish before D can start darla
/
smbs
C /vit
D
 CONT’D
 The network diagram describes sequential relationships among
major activities on a project.
 The length (of time) of any path can be determined by summing
the expected times of the activities on that path.
 The path with the longest time is of particular interest because it
governs project completion time
 Expected project duration = The expected time of the longest
path
 Moreover, if there is any delay along the longest path, there will
be corresponding delay in project completion time.
 Conversely, attempts to shorten project completion must focus on
the longest sequence of activities.
 Because of its influence on project completion time, the longest
path is the Critical Path, and its activities are referred to as
Critical Activities.
 Paths that are shorter than the critical path can experience some
delays and still not affect the overall project completion time as
long as the ultimate path time doesn’t exceed the length of the
critical path.
 The allowable slippage (delay) for any path is called the Path
Slack and it reflects the difference between the length of a
given path and the length of the critical path.
 The critical path, then, has zero slack time

 e)Conventions for drawing networks:

 There are two slightly different conventions for constructing the

network diagrams.
 Under one convention, the arrows are used to designate activities,
whereas under the other convention, the nodes are used to
designate activities.
 These conventions are referred to as activity- on-arrow (A-O-A)
and activity – on- node (A-O-N) respectively.
 CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM) ANALYSIS (DETERMINISTIC TIME
ESTIMATE)
 This is a diagrammatic representation which shows the various
activities in a project.
 The aim of the CPA is to identify how those activities link together and
to show the critical path or the sequence of activities where a delay will
result in the overall project being delayed.
 An activity is said to be critical if a delay in its start will cause a further
delay in the completion of the entire project.
 The sequence of critical activities in a network is called the critical path.
 It is the longest path in the network from the starting event to the ending
event and defines the minimum time required to complete the project.
 In the network it is denoted by double line. This path identifies all the
critical activities of the project. Hence, for the activity (i,j) to lie on the
critical path, following condition must be satisfied .
The procedure of determining the critical path
Step 1. List all activities and then draw arrow (network) diagram.
Step2. Indicate the normal time (tij) for each activity ( i,j) above the

arrow which is deterministic.

Step 3. Calculate the earliest start, the earliest finish, the latest finish
and latest start times for each event.
Step 4. Indicate the various times computed above on the arrow
diagram.
Step 5. Determine the total float for each activity by taking the
difference between the earliest start and the latest start time.
Step 6. Identify the critical activities and connect them by double line
arrows.
Step 7. Calculate the project duration.
 CONT’D
Example:
A small maintenance project consists of the following jobs
whose precedence relationship is given below.

Jobs 1-2 1-3 2-3 2-5 3-4 3-6 4-5 4-6 5-6 6-7

Duration ( 15 15 3 5 8 12 1 14 3 14
days)
Required:
A.Draw an arrow diagram representing the project.
B.Find the total float for each activity.
C.Find the critical path and the total project duration
SOLUTION
A. THE NETWORK DIAGRAM THAT REPRESENTS THE PROJECT IS
AS FOLLOWS
CONT’D
 The paths of the network are:
 Path: 1 – 2 –5 -6 -7=>37days
 Path: 1 – 2 – 3– 4 – 5 – 6– 7 =>44days
 Path: 1 – 2 – 3– 4 – 6– 7 =>54days- Critical Path Length
 Path: 1 – 3– 4– 5 – 6 – 7 =>41days
 Path: 1 – 3– 4 – 6 – 7 =>51days
 Path: 1 – 3–6 – 7 =>41days
B. The total float for each activity
 To determine the total float first the earliest start and finish; late
start and finish should be computed.
 This calls for the forward pass and backward pass computation.
CONT’D
 Forward pass calculation
 Finding ES and EF times involves a “forward pass” through the
network.
 The method associated with finding ES and EF is called forward
pass method.
 ES: the earliest time the activity can start, assuming all preceding
activities start as early as possible.
 EF: The earliest time the activity can finish.

EF = ES + t

 Esj is given by:

 ESj= Max (ESj, ti-j)
 Where Esi is the earliest time and tij is the normal time for the
activity (i,j).
 ES1=0
 ES2= ES1 + t1-5= 0 + 15=15
 ES3= Max (ES 2 + t2-3, Es1 + 13)
 = Max (15 +3, 0+15) = 18
 ES4= ES3+ t34 = 18+8 = 26
 ES5 = Max (ES2 + 25, ES4 + t4-5)
 = Max (15 +5, 26+1) = 27
 ES6 = Max (ES3+t3-6, ES4+ t4-6, ES5+t5-6)
 = Max (18+12, 26+24, 27+3)
 = 40
 ES7 = ES6 + t6-7 = 40 +14 = 54
CONT’D
 Backward pass Calculation
 Finding LS and LF times involves a “backward pass” through
the network.
 The method of computing LS and LF is called backward pass
method.
 LS, the latest time the activity can start and not delay the
project.
 LF, the latest time the activity can finish and not delay the
project
 Computation of the latest starting and finishing times is aided
by the use two rules.
 LS = LF -t

 The latest starting (LS) time for each activity is equal to its
latest finishing (LF) time minus its expected duration
 CONT’D
 2.For nodes with one leaving arrows: LF for arrows entering that
node equals the LS of the leaving arrow.
 For nodes with multiple leaving arrows: LF for arrows entering
that node equals the smallest LS of leaving arrows.
 LFi is given by:

 LFi = Min ( LFj-ti-j) where LFj is the latest finish time for the
event j.
 LF7 = 54
 LF6= LF7 = t6-7 = 54-14 = 40
 LF5= LS6-t5-6= 40-3 = 37
 LF4 = Min (LS5-t4-5, LS6-t4-6)
 = Min (37-1, 40-14) = 26

 LF3 = Min (LF4-t3-4, LF6-t3-5)
 = Min (26-8, 40-12) = 18
 LF2 = Min (LF5 - t2-5, LF3-t2-3)
 = Min (37-5, 18-3) = 15
 LF1 = Min (LF3-t1-3, LF2-t1-2)
 = Min (18-15, 15-15)=0
 The following table gives the summarized calculation for
critical path and total float.
CONT’D
Earliest Latest
Start Finisgh Start Finish Total float
Normal
Activity LFj-ESj or
time
ESi ESj LSi LFj LFi-ESi

1-2 15 0 15 0 15 0
1-3 15 0 15 3 18 3
2-3 3 15 18 15 18 0
2-5 5 15 20 32 37 17
3-4 8 18 26 18 26 0
3-6 12 18 30 28 40 10
4-5 1 26 40 26 40 0
5-6 3 27 30 37 40 10
6-7 14 40 54 40 54 0
CONT’D
c)The Critical Path
From the above table we observe that the activities 1-2, 2-3, 3-4,
4-6, 6-7 are the critical activities.
The critical path is given by, 1-2-3-4-6-7

The total project completion time (duration)is given by 54 days.

Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

PERT is a time-oriented technique designated to cater for
projects where it is not possible to estimate the exact duration of
the activity.
It uses statistical theory to estimate how long a project is likely
to last, and the probability of completing the project by a
particular date.
It helps to address situations which require a probabilistic
approach
 CONT’D
 The probabilistic approach involves three times estimates for
each activity instead of one:
 1) Optimistic time: - The length of time required under
optimum conditions.
 It is represented be type represented by the letter “a”.

 2) Pessimistic time: - The amount of time that will be required

under the worst conditions.
 It is represented by the letter “b”.

 3) Most – likely time: - the most probable amount of time

required.
 It is represented by the letter “m”.
 CONT’D

The β– distribution is commonly used to describe the inherent variability in time estimates.

0
a m te b
Activity
Optimistic Pessimistic time
start time Most-likely time
(Mode)
 CONT’D
 β – Distribution can be symmetrical or skewed to either the
right or left according to the nature of the activity.
 The mean and variance of the β-distribution can be found from
the three time estimates.
 β – Distribution is unimodal with a high concentration of
probability surrounding the most-likely time estimate.
 The important issue in network analysis is the average of
expected time for each activity, te, and the variance of each
activity time,δ_i^2.
CONT’D
CONT’D
CONT’D
Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
time time time
1-2 3 5 7
2-3 4 8 12
3-4 2 4 6
3-5 3 6 9
3-6 3 6 9
4-5 2 4 6
4-6 1 3 6
5-6 2 5 8
6-7 2 5 14
7-8 4 7 10
CONT’D
 Given the above information, compute the following:
A. Find the expected duration and variance of each activity

B. Find the expected duration of the project.

C. Calculate the variance and standard deviation of project length

and what is the probability that the project will be completed:
i.at least 4 days earlier than expected?
ii.no more than 4 days later than expected?
C. If the project due date is 41 days what is the probability of
meeting the due date.

Solution for a) and b)

 Expected
Ze
path
To+4tm+
Paths Activity to tm tp length S2
tp
(E the
6
path)
1-2-3-5- 1-2 3 5 7 5 37 4
/9
6-7-8 2-3 4 8 12 8 16/9

3-5 3 6 9 6 1
5-6 2 5 8 5 1
6-7 2 5 14 6 4
7-8 4 7 10 7 1
1-2-3-4- 1-2 3 5 7 5 39 4
/9
5-6-7-8 2-3 4 8 12 8 Critical 16
/9
3-4 2 4 6 4 path 4
/9
4-5 2 4 6 4 4
/9
5-6 2 5 8 5 1
 CONT’D
Path Activity (2 path)  Path
1-2-3-5-6-7-8 1-2
82
83
74
285/ 9/ 36 2-3
3-5
5-6 83
/9
6-7
7-8
1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5 82
/9
5-6 Project variance
6-7
7-8
1-2-3-4-6-7-8 1-2
2-3
3-4 285/
36
4-6
6-7
7-8
1-2-3-6-7-8 1-2
2-3 74/9

3-6
6-7
7-8
CONT’D
CONT’D
CONT’D
NETWORK EXAMPLE
Illustration of network analysis of a minor redesign of a product and its associated
packaging.

The key question is: How long will it take to complete this project ?

37
darla
/
smbs
/vit
FORWARD PASS
 Earliest Start Time (ES)
 earliest time an activity can start
 ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors
 Earliest finish time (EF)
 earliest time an activity can finish

38
 earliest start time plus activity time
EF= ES + t
Backward Pass
Latest Start Time (LS)
Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path
time
LS= LF - t
Latest finish time (LF)
latest time an activity can be completed without delaying
critical path time
darla
LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors /
smbs
/vit
EXAMPLE 2
SUPPOSE A CIVIL ENGINEERING FIRM HAS TO BID FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF A
DAM. THE ACTIVITIES AND TIME ESTIMATES ARE GIVEN BELOW. DO THE NEXT
REQUIREMENTS.

Activity a m b
1-2 (a) 1 3 4
1-3 (b) 2 4 6
1-4 (c) 2 3 5
2-5 (d) 3 4 5
3-6 (e) 3 5 7
4- 7 (f) 5 7 9
5-8 (g) 2 3 6
6-8 (h) 4 6 8
7-8 (I) 3 4 6
 CONT……….

REQUIRED:
a) Draw the project network and identify all the paths.

b) Compute the expected time for each activity and the expected
duration for each path.
c) Determine the expected project length.

d) Identify the critical path and critical activities.

e) Compute the variance for each activity and the variance for
path .
SOLUTION
A)
CONT…..
Solution
B)
Times
Path Activity a m b te = a+4m+b Path total
6

1-2-5-8 a 1 3 4 2.83
b 2 4 6 4.00 10.00
c 2 3 5 3.17

1-3-6-8 d 3 4 5 4.00
e 3 5 7 5.00 16.00
f 5 7 9 7.00

1-4-7-8 g 2 3 6 3.33
h 4 6 8 6.00 13.5
i 3 4 6 4.17
CONT…..
C) The critical path is path 1-3-6-8, since it has the longest expected
duration.
Times
Path
Activity a m b δ=activity=(b-a)2 δ2 path δ path
36

1-2-5-8 a 1 3 4 (4-1)2/36=9/36
b 2 4 6 (6-2)2/36=16/36 34/36=0.944 0.97
c 2 3 5 (5-2)2/36=9/36
1-3-6-8 d 3 4 5 (5-3)2/36=4/36
e 3 5 7 (7-3)2/36=16/36 36/36=1.00 1.00
f 5 7 9 (9-5)2/36=16/36
1-4-7-8 g 2 3 6 (6-2)2/36=16/36
h 4 6 8 (8-4)2/36=16/36 41/36=1.139 1.07
i 3 4 6 (6-3)2/36=9/36