Road to Pearl Harbor:

1
 Contents
1. The Puzzle of the Pacific War
2. Levels of Analysis and Causes of the
Pacific War
3. Political Implications of Historical
Explanations

2
 The Puzzle of the Pacific War

“A war initiated by the weaker side.”

3
 Power Disparity

Japan The U.S.

Gross National Products 1 12
Steel Production 1 17
Car Owners 1 160
Oil Production 1 721

Source: Akira Yamada, Gunbi Kakuchou no Kindaishi

[Modern History of Military Expansion] (Tokyo: Yoshikawa
Koubunkan, 1997).

4
Japan’s Oil Reserve

• Peace Time =
2 years.

• War Time =
A Year and a
Half
5
 US-Japan Trade Relations

40
35
30
Share of U.S.
25 in Japanese
% 20 Trade
15 Share of Japan
in U.S. Trade
10
5
0
1910 1920 1930 1940

Source: Bank of Japan; US Dept of Commerce

6
 Japanese Perceptions

“It is impossible
for Japan to
wage a war
against
America.”

Tomosaburo Kato
Admiral, Japan’s Imperial Navy 7
 U.S. Perceptions

→
←

Joseph Grew U.S. Department of State

U.S. Ambassador to Japan
8
Three Levels of Analysis

1) International Level
2) Domestic Level
3) Individual Level

9
International Level #1

Balance of Power Theory

Rise of Japan
↓
U.S.-Japan Rivalry over China
↓
War

10
International Level #2

Socialization Theory

Threat of Western imperialism

↓
Modernization & militarization
↓
Japan’s adaptation to the
imperialist World system.

Commodore Matthew Perry

11
International Level #3

Theory of Economic Interdependence

Great Depression
↓

Protectionism
↓
War
12
Domestic Level #1

Democratic Peace Theory

Japan’s authoritarian regime

↓
Rise of militarism
↓
War
Emperor Hirohito
13
Domestic Level #2

Theory of Imperialism

Capitalist economic system

↓
Expansionist policies
↓
War

14
Domestic Level #3

Cultural Theory

Childhood training
↓
Frustration in adulthood life
↓
Aggressive behavior

15
 Individual Level

Conspiracy Theory

War-prone leaders
↓
control of government
↓
misled the mass to war

Hideki Tojo, Army General

and Prime Minister 16
 Positions of Key Players
Emperor Hirohito
・ Japan cannot wage a war against U.S. & UK
・ Japan should seek peace through diplomatic
negotiations.
Army
・ Negotiated peace, even if it is possible, would
be short-lived. War is inevitable.
・ Because a war is inevitable, sooner the attack,
the better.
・ Japan cannot sustain for a long war.
17
Theories & Political Implications

18
International Level

Theories Causes of War Prescription Subscribers

Balance of Rise of Japan None Realists
Power
Socialization Global None Nationalists
WWII veterans
Imperialism
Yasukuni

Shrine

Economic Protectionism Free Trade Creators of

Inter- the Bretton
dependence Woods
System

19
Domestic Level

Theories Cause of War Prescription Subscribers

Democratic Authoritarian Democracy Allied Powers
Peace Regime  GHQ

Capitalist Socialism/
Imperialism Economy Communism Marxists

Shinto
Confucianism
Culture Christianity D. MacArthur

20
Individual Level

Theories Cause of War Prescription Subscribers

Conspiracy Bad Leaders Removal of Prosecutors of

Bad Leaders the Tokyo
War Tribunal

21
Conclusions

22
 Conclusions 1

• International level theories

•War is inevitable.
•Japan’s war responsibility becomes
blurred.

23
 Conclusions 2

• Domestic level theories

• Individual level theories

•War can be avoided

•Japan’s war responsibility becomes
clear.
24
 Conclusions 3

Theory—

Explanation or Justification?

25
 Explanation vs. Justification

Explanation of what happened and why it

happened.
↓
Judgment of who is right and who is
wrong.
↓
Theory becomes justification.

26
Kids Fight?

27
Watch Out ！
28
References
Barnhart, Michael. Japan Prepares for the Total War: The Search
for Economic Security, 1919-1941 (Ithaca: Cornell University
Press, 1987.
Crowley, James. Japan’s Quest for Autonomy: National Security
and Foreign Policy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1966).
Iriye, Akira. Power and Culture: The Japanese-American War,
1941-1945 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1981).
Morley, James, ed., Dilemmas of Growth in Prewar Japan
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1971).
Nye, Joseph. Understanding International Conflicts: An
Introduction to Theory and History (Longman, 2009).
Sagan, Scott. “The Origins of the Pacific War,” in Robert I. Rotberg
and Theodore K. Rabb, eds. The Origins and Prevention of
Major Wars (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1989).
Smethurst, Richard. A Social Basis for Prewar Japanese Militarism
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1974). 29
Discussion Questions

• Why did Japan attack Pearl

Harbor?
• Was it inevitable?

30