CMGT 547 - Week #3 Slides
CMGT 547 - Week #3 Slides
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Figure 2.2
Information reported on a company’s financial statements.
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Figure 2.5
The cash flow cycle in a typical manufacturing firm.
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Figure 2.9
Types of financial ratios used in evaluating a firm’s financial health.
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Limitations of Financial Ratios
o Analysts should be aware of ever-changing
market conditions and make the necessary
adjustments.
o Difficult to generalize about whether a
particular ratio is good or bad
o Ratio analysis based on any one year may not
represent the true business condition.
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Chapter Opening Story —Take a Lump Sum or Annual Installments
• Winning the $1 billion jackpot ticket
sold on January 23, 2021.
• The winner had two options:
– Option 1: Take a lump sum cash
payment of $530M after tax.
– Option 2: Collect an initial
payment of $11.35M now and
take an annuity payment of
$11.35M a year for 29 years.
• Which option would you
recommend?
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What Do We Need to Know?
• Be able to compare the value of money at different points in
time.
• Need a method for reducing a sequence of benefits and costs
to a single point in time.
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Time Value of Money
• Money has a time value
because it can earn
more money over time
(earning power).
• Money has a time value
because its purchasing
power changes over
time (inflation).
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The Market Interest Rate
• Interest is the cost of money—a cost to the borrower and a
profit to the lender.
• Time value of money is measured in terms of market interest
rate, which reflects both earning and purchasing power in the
financial market.
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Cash Flow Diagram (A Graphical Representation of Cash
Transactions Over Time)
• Borrow $20,000 at 9%
interest over 5 years,
requiring $200 loan
origination fee upfront.
The required annual
repayment is $5,141.85
over 5 years.
– n = 0: $20,000
– n = 0: $200
– n 1~ 5 : $5,141.85
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End-of-Period Convention
• Convention: Any cash flows
occurring during the
interest period are
summed to a single
amount and placed at the
end of the interest period.
• Logic: This convention
allows financial institutions
to make interest
calculations easier.
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Methods of Calculating Interest
• Simple interest: Charging an interest rate only to an initial sum
(principal amount).
• Compound interest: Charging an interest rate to an initial sum
and to any previously accumulated interest that has not been
withdrawn.
– Note: Unless otherwise mentioned, all interest rates used
in engineering economic analyses are compound interest
rates.
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Simple Interest
• Formula: • P = $1,000, i = 10%, N = 3 years
F P (iP )N
End of Beginning Interest Ending
Year Balance Earned Balance
where
0 $1,000
P = Principal amount
Blank Blank
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Compound Interest
• Formula: • P = $1,000, i = 10%, N = 3 years
n 0 : P
End of Beginning Interest Ending
n 1: F1 P (1 i ) Year Balance Earned Balance
0 $1,000
Blank Blank
n 2 : F2 F1(1 i ) P (1 i )2
1 $1,000 $100 $1,100
2 $1,100 $110 $1,210
n N : F P (1 i )N 3 $1,210 $121 $1,331
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Compounding Process
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The Fundamental Law of Engineering Economy
F P (1 i )N
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway
• Went public in 1965: $18 per share
• Worth today (July 26, 2022):
$431,908 per share
• Annual compound growth: 19.35%
• Current market value: $634.71
billion
• If his company continues to grow at
the current pace, what will be his • Assume that the company’s stock will
company’s total market value when continue to appreciate at an annual
he reaches 100? (He is 91 years old rate of 19.35% for the next 9 years.
as of 2022.) The stock price per share at his 100th
birthday would be
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Example 3.2 Comparing Simple With Compound Interest
In 1626, American Indians sold Manhattan Island to Peter Minuit
of the Dutch West Company for $24.
• Given: If they saved just $1 from the proceeds in a bank
account that paid 8% interest,
• Find:
– (a) how much would their descendants have in 2022?
– (b) As of 2022, the total US population would be close to
332 million. If the total sum would be distributed equally
among the population, how much would each person
receive?
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Solution
(a) P $1
i 8%
N 396
F $1(1 0.08)396
$17,211,042,333,784
$17,211,042,333,784
(b) Amount per person
330,000,000
$51,840
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What is “Economic Equivalence?”
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Equivalence Example: Compounding Concept
• If you deposit P F
P
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Equivalence – Discounting Concept
of period N is equal
to a single sum P
dollars now, if your 0 N
earning power is F
measured in terms P F (1 i ) N
of interest rate i.
0 N
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Equivalence Example 3.3
Given: If you deposit
$2,042 today in a $2,042
savings account that
pays an 8% interest
annually, how much
would you have at 0 1 2 3 4 5
the end of 5 years? F
Find: At an 8%
interest, what is the =
equivalent worth of
$2,042 now in 5
0 5
years?
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Solution
Various dollar amounts that will be economically
equivalent to $3,000 in five years, at an interest
rate of 8%
$2,042
0 1 2 3 4 5
F
=
0 5
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Equivalent Example 3.4: Cash Flows
Given: $2,042 today was equivalent to
receiving $3,000 in five years, at an
interest rate of 8%.
Find: Are these two cash flows are also
equivalent at the end of year 3?
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Solution
Equivalent cash flows are
equivalent at any common point
in time, as long as we use the
same interest rate (8%, in our
example).
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Finding an Equivalent Value for Multiple
Payments
• Solution
Compute the equivalent Compounding
Process:
$511.90
V3 100(1 0.10)3 $80(1 0.10)2 $120(1 0.10) $150
value of the cash flow series $200(1
0.10)
1
$100(1
0.10)
2
at n = 3, using i = 10%.
Discounting Process: $264.46
$511.90 $264.46
$776.36
V3
$200 V
$200
=
$150
$120
$100 $100 $150
$80
$120
$100 $100
$80
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
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Comparing Two Different Cash Flows
Find C, making the two cash flow Approach
transactions equivalent at i = 10%. • Step 1: Select a base period to use, say n = 2.
• Step 2: Find the equivalent lump sum value at
n = 2 for both A and B.
$1,000 • Step 3: Equate both equivalent values and solve
$500 for the unknown, C.
A
$1,000
0 1 2 3 $500
For A: V2 $500(1 0.10)2 $1,000(1 0.10) 1 A
C C $1,514.09 0 1 2 3
For B: V2 C (1 0.10) C
B 2.1C
C C
2.1C $1,514.09
0 1 2 3 C $721 B
0 1 2 3
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Finding an Interest Rate that Establishes
an Economic Equivalence
At what interest rate would you
be indifferent choosing between Approach
the two cash flows? • Step 1: Select a base period to compute the
equivalent value (say, n = 3).
• Step 2: Find the equivalent worth of each cash flow
$1,000 series at n = 3.
$500
$1,000
A 3
Option A : F3 $500(1 i) $1,000
$500
2
0 1 2 3 Option B: F3 $502(1 i) $502(1 i) $502
A
0 1 2 3
i = 8%
$502 $502 $502 Option A : F3 $500(1.08)3 $1,000
$502 $502 $502
$1,630
B
Option B : F3 $502(1.08)2 $502(1.08) $502 B
$1,630
0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3
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Types of Common
Cash Flows in
Engineering
Economics
Single cash flow
Equal (uniform) payment
series at regular intervals
Linear gradient series
Geometric gradient series
Irregular (random)
payment series
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Equivalence Relationship Between P and F
Compounding Process
Finding an equivalent
future value of a current
cash payment
Discounting Process
Finding an equivalent
present value of a future
cash payment
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Singe Cash Flow Formula
Compound Amount Factor
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Example 3.7: Find F, Given i, N, and P
Given: P = $2,000, Excel Solution
i = 10%, N = 8 years
Find: F
F $2,000(1 0.10)8
$2,000(F / P ,10%,8)
$4,287.18
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A Typical Compound Interest Table at 12%
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Single Cash Flow Formula
Present Worth Amount Factor
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Example 3.8: Find P, Given i, N, and F
Given: F = $1,000, i = 12%, N Excel Solution
= 5 years
Find: P
P $1,000(1 0.12) 5
$1,000(P / F ,12%,5)
$567.43
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Example 3.9: Find i, Given P, F, and N
Given: F = $20, P = $10,
• Cash Flow Diagram
N = 5 years
Find: i
Excel Solution
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Example 3.10: Find N, Given P, F, and i
Given: P = $6,000, F • Solving for N
= $12,000, i = 20%
Find: N
F 2P P(1 0.20)N
2 1.2N
log2 N log1.2
log2
N
log1.2
3.80 years
Excel Solution
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Rule of 72
Approximating how long it • Number of Years Required to Double an
will take for a sum of money Initial Investment at Various Interest Rates
to double
72
N
interest rate (%)
72
20
3.6 years
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Equal Payment Series
F
u re Wo rth
u i val e nt Fut
Eq
0 1 2 N
A A A
0 1 2 N
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Equal-Payment Series Compound
Amount Factor
• Formula
A A A
0 1 2 N
0 1 2 N
=
0 1 2
N
A A A
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An Alternate Way of Calculating the
Equivalent Future Worth, F
F
A(1+i)N-2
A A A
A(1+i)N-1
0 1 2 N 0 1 2 N
N
N 1 N 2 (1 i ) 1
F A(1 i) A(1 i) A A
i
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Example 3.11: Uniform Series:
Find F, Given i, A, and N
Given: A = $3,000, N = 10 years, and i = 7%
per year
Find: F
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Solution
Excel Solution
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Example 3.12: Handling Time Shifts:
Find F, Given i, A, and N
Given: A = $3,000, N = 10 years, and i =
7% per year where the first deposit is
made at n = 0
Find: F
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Solution
Excel Solution:
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Sinking-Fund Factor:
Find A, Given i, A, and F
F
A A A
0 1 2 N 1 2 N
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Example
• Formula to use
Given: F = $5,000, N = 5
years, and i = 7% per year
Find: A
A $5,000(A / F ,7%,5)
A $5,000(A / F ,7%,5) $869.50
$869.50
$5,000
0 1 5
Excel Solution
=PMT(7%,5,0,5000)
A
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Example 3.14: Comparison of Three Different
Retirement Plans
Given: Three
investment plans and
i = 8%
Find: Balance on
65th birthday
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Solution
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Example 3.16: Deferred Loan Repayment
Given: P = $250,000,
N = 6 years, and i =
8% per year, but the
first payment occurs
at the end of year 2
Find: A
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Solution
• Step 1. Find the
equivalent amount of
borrowing at the end of
year 1:
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Example 3.17: Uniform Series: Find P, Given A,
i, and N
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Solution
Formula to use:
• Cash Flow Diagram
Excel Solution
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Linear Gradient Series
Gradient Series as a Composite Series of a
A Strict Gradient Series Uniform Series of N Payments of A1 and the
Gradient Series of Increments of Constant
Amount G
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Example 3.18: Linear Gradient: Find P, Given A1, G, N, and i
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Solution
Excel Solution
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Gradient-to-Equal-Payment Series
Conversion Factor, (A/G, i, N)
• Cash Flow Series
Given: G = $1,000,
N = 10 years, i =
12%
Find: A
Solution
• Factor Notation
A $1,000(A / G ,12%,10)
$1,000(3.5847)
$3,584.70
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Example 3.19: Linear Gradient: Find A, Given A1, G, i, and
N
Given: A1 = $1,000, G = $300, N = 6 years, and i = 10% per year
Find: A
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Solution
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Example 3.20: Declining Linear Gradient Series: Find F, Given A1,
G, I, and N
Given: A1 = $1,200,
G = -$200, N = 5 years,
and i = 10% per year
Find: F
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Solution
Strategy: Since we have no
interest formula to compute
the future worth of a linear
gradient series directly, we first
find the equivalent present
worth of the gradient series
and then convert this P to its
equivalent F.
Solution
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Present Worth of Geometric
Gradient Series
Formula
Factor Notation
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Example 3.21: Geometric Gradient Series
Given: A1 = $54,600,
g = 7%, N = 5 years,
and i = 12% per year
Find: P
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Solution
1 (1 0.07)5 (1 0.12) 5
POld $54,600
0.12 0.07
$222,937
PNew $54,600(1 0.23)(P / A,12%,5)
$42,042(3.6048)
$151,552
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Example 3.22: Retirement Plan: Saving $1 Million
Given:
o F = $1,000,000,
o g = 6%,
o i = 8%, and
o N = 20
Find: A1
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Solution
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Example 3.23: Uneven Payment Series
How much do you need to
deposit today (P) to withdraw
$25,000 at n = 1, $3,000 at n = 2,
and $5,000 at n = 4, if your
account earns 10% annual
interest?
$25,000
$3,000 $5,000
0
1 2 3 4
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Check to see if $28,622 is indeed sufficient.
0 1 2 3 4
Beginning 0 28,622 6,484.20 4,132.62 4,545.88
Balance
Interest 0 2,862 648.42 413.26 454.59
Earned
(10%)
Payment +28,622 −25,000 −3,000 0 −5,000
Rounding error.
It should be “0.”
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Example 3.25: Future Value of an Uneven Series with
Varying Interest Rates
Given: Deposit series as given over 5 years
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Solution
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Composite Cash Flows
Situation 1: If you make 4 annual
deposits of $100 in your savings
account, which earns 10% annual
interest, what equal annual amount
(A) can be withdrawn over 4
subsequent years?
Situation 2: What value of A
would make the two cash flow
transactions equivalent if i = 10%?
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Establishing Economic Equivalence
Method 1: At n = 0 Method 2: At n = 4
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Example 3.28: Calculating an Unknown Interest Rate
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Solution
$192,373,928 $9,791,667(P / A, i ,30)
(P / A, i ,30) 22.3965
Excel Solution:
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Nominal and Effective Interest Rates
Lecture No. 10
Chapter 4
Contemporary Engineering Economics
Copyright © 2016
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Nominal Versus Effective
Interest Rates
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Financial Jargon
Interest
Nominal
period
interest rate
Annual
percentage
rate (APR)
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18% Compounded Monthly
• What It Really Means? • Example: Suppose that you
– Interest rate per month (i) = 18%/12 invest $1 for 1 year at 18%
= 1.5% compounded monthly. How
– Number of interest periods per year
much interest would you earn?
(N) = 12
• In words:
– Bank will charge 1.5% interest each
month on your unpaid balance, if F $1(1 i)12 $1(1 0.015)12
you borrowed money. $1.1956
– You will earn 1.5% interest each I $1.1956 $1.00 $0.1956
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Practice Problem
• Solution
Suppose your savings account
pays 9% interest compounded (a) Interest rate per quarter:
quarterly. 9%
i 2.25%
(a) Interest rate per quarter 4
(b) Annual effective interest (b) Annual effective interest rate:
rate (ia) ia (1 0.0225)4 1 9.31%
(c) If you deposit $10,000 for (c) Balance at the end of one year (after 4 quarters)
one year, how much
F $10,000(F / P ,2.25%,4)
would you have?
$10,000(F / P ,9.31%,1)
$10,931
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Nominal and Effective Interest Rates with
Different Compounding Periods
Effective Rates
Nominal Compounding Compounding Compounding Compounding Compounding
Rate Annually Semi-annually Quarterly Monthly Daily
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Why Do We Need an Effective
Interest Rate per Payment Period?
Whenever payment and compounding periods differ from
each other, you need to find the equivalent interest rate so
that both conform to the same unit of time.
Payment period
Interest period
Payment period
Interest period
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Effective Interest Rate per Payment Period (i)
C
r
i 1 1
CK
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Equivalence Calculations using
Effective Interest Rates
St • Identify the payment period (e.g.,
ep annual, quarter, month, week, etc.).
1
St • Identify the interest period (e.g.,
ep annually, quarterly, monthly, etc.).
2
St • Find the effective interest rate that
ep covers the payment period.
3
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Case I: When Payment Period is Equal to
Compounding Period
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Example 4.4: Calculating Auto Loan Payments
Given:
o MSRP = $20,870
o Discounts & Rebates = $2,443
o Net sale price = $18,427
o Down payment = $3,427
o Dealer’s interest rate = 6.25% APR
o Length of financing = 72 months
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Solution
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Case II: When Payment Periods Differ from Compounding
Periods
Step 1: Identify the following parameters.
• M = No. of compounding periods
• K = No. of payment periods per year
• C = No. of interest periods per payment period
Step 2: Compute the effective interest rate per payment
period. i [1 r / CK ]C 1
• For discrete compounding
i er /K 1
• For continuous compounding
Find: F
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Solution
Cash flow diagram
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Example 4.6: Compounding Is Less Frequent than
Payments
Given:
o A = $500 per month
o M = 4 compounding periods/year
o K = 12 payment periods/year
o C = 1/3 interest period per quarter
o N = 10 years or 120 months 1/3
0.10
i 1 1
Find: F 4
0.826%
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Solution
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Single-Payment Transactions with
Continuous Compounding: Future Worth
F
N
F P(1 i)
0
r N
P(1 e 1) N
rN
Pe
P
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Practice Problem
If you invest $1,000 in a savings account that pays 6% annual interest
compounded continuously, what would be the balance at the end of 3 years?
F =?
0
1 2 3
$1,000
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Solution
0.06
ia e 1
6.18%
F $1, 000( F / P, 6.18%,3)
$1,197.09
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Single-Payment Transactions with Continuous
Compounding: Present Worth
F
N
P F (1 i)
r N 0
F (1 e 1) N
rN
Fe
P
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Continuous-Funds Flow
P ft( )t e rt
t 0
N
ft( )e rt dt
0
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Summary of Interest Factors for Typical Continuous Cash Flows with
Continuous Compounding
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Example 4.10: Continuous Flows and
Continuous Compounding
Given: A = $200
per day, r = 6% per
year, M = 365
compounding
periods per year,
and N = 455 days
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Solution
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Example 4.11: Continuous Flows and
Continuous Compounding
Given: A = $200
per day, r = 6% per
year, M = 365
compounding
periods per year,
and N = 455 days
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Solution
• Find G:
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Solution
• Find P:
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Example 4.14: Loan Balance, Principal, and Interest
Given:
o P = $5,000,
o i = 12% APR,
o N = 24 months
Find: A
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Solution
Monthly Payment:
A = $5,000(A/P, 1%, 24)
= $235.37
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Calculating the Remaining Loan Balance after Making the
nth Payment
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Example 4.15: Loan Balance at End of Period 6
Given: P = $5,000,
i = 12% APR, N = 24
months
Find: Loan
balance, principal,
and interest
payment for the 6th
payment
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Solution
Monthly payment: $235.37
Interest payment at n = 6
• Interest payment
• Principal payment
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Example 4.17: Financing Your Vehicle
Given:
• Three financing
options
• r = 4.5%
• Payment period =
monthly
• Compounding period
= monthly
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Home Mortgage
Types of Home Mortgages The Cost of a
Mortgage
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Example 4.16: An Interest-Only Versus a Fully Amortized
Mortgage
Given:
• P = $200,000,
– APR = 6.6% or 0.55% per month, and
– N = 30 years
Find: (a) monthly payment; (b) interest payments during the first year of
ownership of the home.
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Solution
• (b) Interest payments
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Calculating the Monthly Payments with an Adjustable-
Rate Mortgage (ARMs)
• Index: a guide that lenders use to measure interest rate changes
• Margin: an interest rate that represents the lender’s cost of doing business plus
the profit
• Adjustment period: the period between potential interest rate adjustments (e.g.,
3/1 means your interest rate is fixed for the first 3 years, then could be adjusted
every year thereafter)
• Interest rate cap: a limit on the amount your interest can change (a periodic cap
and a lifetime cap)
• Payment cap: how much your monthly payment can increase at each adjustment
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A. Investment Basics
The three basic investment objects are: growth, income, and liquidity.
The two greatest risks investors face are inflation and market volatility.
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Basic Concept: How to Determine
Your Expected Return
Real Return 2%
U.S. Treasury Bills
Inflation 4%
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Figuring Average versus Compound Return
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How to Determine Expected Financial Risk
• Risk refers to the chance that some unfavorable event will occur.
• Volatility measures the deviation from the expected value, or
sudden swings in value, from high to low or the reverse.
• Standard deviation measures the degree of volatility when you
have the probabilistic information about the uncertain event.
• Beta measures how closely a fund’s performance correlates with
broader stock market movement.
• Alpha shows whether a fund is producing better or worse
returns than expected, given the risk it takes.
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B. Investment Strategies
• Trade-off between risk and reward
– Cash: the least risky with the lowest returns
– Debt: moderately risky with moderate returns
– Equities: the most risky but offering the greatest payoff
• Dollar-cost averaging concept: planned transfer, over a
period, of equal amounts from one asset to another.
• Broader diversification reduces risk: by combining assets
with different patterns of return, it is possible to achieve
a higher rate of return without increasing significant risk.
• Broader diversification increases expected return.
• Portfolios with long-term horizons need equities to offset
inflation while short time frames requires debt and/or
cash investments to reduce volatility.
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C. Investing in Stocks
Investing in stocks and bonds is one of the most common
investment activities among American investors.
– Stocks: Ownership in a corporation
– Ownership: If a company issues one million shares, and you buy
10,000 shares, you own 10% of the company.
– Valuation: (1) cash dividend and (2) share appreciation at the time
of sale
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D. Investing in Bonds
• Bonds: Loans that investors make to
corporations and governments.
• Face (par) value: Principal amount (typically
$1,000 or $10,000)
• Coupon rate: Nominal interest rate quoted on
par value
• Maturity: The length of the loan
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Types of Bonds and How They are Issued in the Financial
Market
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How Do Prices and Yields Work?
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Bond Quotes
$70/108.25 $1,082.50
= 6.47%
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Chapter #4 Example Problems
Park
Contemporary Engineering Economics,
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Assignment #2
• Due Tuesday 19Sept22
• Problems:
• 3.5, 3.13, 3.15, 3.27, 3.42, 3.52, 3.72
• 4.3, 4.18, 4.30, 4.68, 4.73, 4.77
• For all problems draw cash flow diagrams prior to attempting the
problem.
• Hint: Cash flow diagrams help to express patterns accurately.