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Lect 14

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7 views16 pages

Lect 14

Uploaded by

Aarav Kapoor
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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lec14

Module 2
Discrete Distributions
Discrete Distributions

• Bernoulli
• Binomial
• Geometric
• Negative Binomial
• Poisson
Bernoulli Distribution
• A random variable with two possible values, 0 and 1, is
called a Bernoulli variable.
• Its distribution is Bernoulli distribution.
• Any experiment with binary outcome is called a
Bernoulli trial.
• Ex. Good or defective, pass or fail, heads and tails, etc.
Bernoulli
Distributio
n
A discrete random
variable X is said to
have a Bernoulli
distribution with
parameter p. If its
probability mass
function is given by:
, x = 0, 1.
So, P(0)=1-p=q,
P(1)=p
Bernoulli
distribution
Bernoulli distribution arises when the
following 3-conditions are satisfied.

1. Each trail of an experiment results in


an outcome that may be classified as
a success or failure
2. The probability of a success is the
same for each trail.

3. The trails are independent; that is the


outcome of one trail have no effect on
the outcome of any other trail.
Probability Distribution of Bernoulli Distribution

X P(X)
0 1-p
1 p

1. Mean = E(X) = 0*(1-p)+1*p


=p
2. Var(X) = Σ(xi - p)2 P(xi) = (0-
p)2 (1-p) + (1-p)2 p = p(1-p)
So, Var(X) = pq
Discret Binomial Distribution:
e • Binomial distribution is an
independent sequence of

Rando Bernoulli trials.


 Number (n) of trails is finite

m  The Probability (p) of the


success is same of each trials,

Variabl
and q=1-p.
 Probability Mass Function is

e , x=0,1,2,…, n
Binomial Distribution:
Discret  All the trails are independent

e  Number (n) of trails is finite


 The Probability (p) of the
Rando success is same of each trials

m , x=0,1,2,…, n

Variabl Example:

e a. A coin toss 3-times, find the


probability of 2-Heads.
b. A coin toss 10-times, find the
probability of 5-Heads.
Binomial Distribution
• As a binomially distributed random variable is the sum
of ‘n’ Bernoulli variables. So,
X = X1 + X2 + … + Xn
• Mean = E(X) = E(X1 + X2 + … + Xn) = E(X1) + … + E(Xn)
= p + p + … + p = np
• Var(X) = Var(X1 + X2 + … + Xn) = Var(X1) + … + Var(Xn)
= pq + pq + … + pq = npq
Problem 1 The probability that man aged
60 will live up to 70 is 0.65 out
of 10 men. Now aged 60, find
the probability:
1. At least 7 will live up to 70

2. Exactly 9 will live up to 70

3. At most 9 will live up to 70


Solution
• n = 10
• p = 0.65, so q = 1 – p =0.35
• Here, the random variable is all the possible number of
people of n who are at 60 and live up to 70.
• Use the formula P() = , x=0,1,2,…, 10
In 1) Find P(>=7) = P(=7) + P(=8) + P(=9) + P(=10)
In 2) Find P(= 9)
In 3) Find P(<=9) = 1 – P(>9) = 1- P(= 10)
Solve and find the answer.
Problem 2 The Probability that a pen
manufactured by a
company will be defective
is 1/10. If 12 such pen are
manufactured. Find the
probability that:

1. Exactly 2 will be
defective
2. None will be defective
3. At least 2 will be
defective
Solution
• n = 12
• p = 1/10, so q = 1 – p =9/10
• Here, the random variable is all the possible number of
defective items out of n.
• Use the formula P() = , = 0,1,2,…, 12
In 1) Find P(= 2)
In 2) Find P(= 0)
In 3) Find P() = 1 – P() = 1- P(= 0) - P(= 1)
Solve and find the answer.
Problem 3 Q2. Out of 800
families with 5
children each,
how many
families would be
expected to have
• 3 boys
• 5 girls
• Either 2 or 3 boys
• At least 2 girls
Solution
•n=5
• p = 0.5, so q = 1 – p =0.5
• Here, the random variable is all the possible number of boys
out of 5 children.
• Use the formula P() = , =0,1,2,…, 5
In 1) Find 800*P()
In 2) Find 800*P(= 0)
In 3) Find 800*(P(= 2) + P(= 3))
In 4) Find 800*P( = 800*(P(= 0)+P(= 1)+P(= 2)+P(= 3))
Solve and find the answer.
Binomial
Distribution
Q4. Medical professionals use the binomial
distribution to model the probability that a certain
number of patients will experience side effects as a
result of taking new medications.
E.g., suppose it is known that 5% of adults who take a
certain medication experience negative side effects.
We can use a Binomial Distribution Calculator to
find the probability that more than a certain number of
patients in a random sample of 100 will experience
negative side effects.

• P(X > 5 patients experience side effects) = 0.38400


• P(X > 10 patients experience side effects)
= 0.01147
• P(X > 15 patients experience side effects) = 0.0004

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