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Dice Probability

The document analyzes the comparison between theoretical and experimental probabilities of rolling a fair 6-sided die, noting that in 100 rolls, the results showed noticeable variance from expected counts. It also explores conditional probability, suggesting that prior rolls may influence future outcomes, although this could be due to random fluctuation. Key takeaways emphasize the importance of statistical tests to differentiate between luck and bias in small sample sizes.

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Hamza Taha
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3 views8 pages

Dice Probability

The document analyzes the comparison between theoretical and experimental probabilities of rolling a fair 6-sided die, noting that in 100 rolls, the results showed noticeable variance from expected counts. It also explores conditional probability, suggesting that prior rolls may influence future outcomes, although this could be due to random fluctuation. Key takeaways emphasize the importance of statistical tests to differentiate between luck and bias in small sample sizes.

Uploaded by

Hamza Taha
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Dice Probability

By hamza taha 10C


I will examine how
theoretical probability
models compare to
experimental dice rolls, then
investigate if prior rolls
influence the future
outcomes using conditional
probability
Theoretical
Fair 6-sided die: P(X)= 1/6 = 16.67% of any x =
{1,2,3,4,5,6}
Expected counts in 100 rolls: 16-17 per number
Probability
Basics
Experimen
tal Setup
100 rolls of fair die
Recorded sequence with
natural variance
Experiment Results

Key Stats:
Number
Count
Experimental P(x)
• 3
19 19%
• 4
20 20%
• 5
12 12%
Conditional
Probability
Analysis
Does rolling a 3 change
the probability of rolling
a 4 next?
Calculation:
P(4|3) = P(3∩4)/P(3) =
(6/99)/(19/100) ≈ 31.6% vs.
P(4) = 20%
31.6% suggests possible
dependency, but with
n=100 this could still be
random fluctuation.
Streak 4 appeared 3x consecutively (expected in 100
rolls)
Analysis
Key Takeaways:

Practical 1. Small samples (n=100) show noticeable variance from theory

Implications
2. Conditional probabilities may appear significant even in fair dice
3. Statistical tests are essential to distinguish luck from bias

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