Risk Ch.2
Risk Ch.2
2. RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK MANAGEMENT
Loss of Rent
Interruption of operation
Contingent Business interruption
Loss of profits on finished goods
Smaller net collections on Accounts receivable
B. Increases in expenses
i. Rental value losses
ii. Extra Expenses
iii. Cancellation of lease
iv. Irremovable improvements and betterments
3. Liability loss Exposures
X = X1 + X2 + X3 - - - Xn,
n
Where, X = arithmetic means
X= measurement
n= total number of measurements
In calculating the mean, equal weight is given for each observation
(measurement).
Example: The mean of the five numbers 0, 3, 5, 4 and 6
is 0 + 3 + 5 + 4 + 6 = 3.6.
5
Expected value-
is a special case of the arithmetic mean and
similar to it.
It is obtained by multiplying each item or event
by the probability of its occurrences.
Example:
The following data relate to ABC Company for
the monetary loss of its automobiles because of
accidents and related probabilities.
Cont…
Event Amount of loss Probability of loss
If event occurs
A Br 20,000 x
0.20 = Br 4,000
B 15,000 x
0.30 = 4,500
C 25,000 x
0.10 = 2,500
D 20,000 x 0.40 = 8,000
Total 19,000
So, expected value=19,000
Note that expected value of loss = the summation of each
loss amount x its probability of loss
= x (p(x))
Standard deviation
ത
𝑋
Expected value ( ) =(250x0.1)+(450x0.2) + (300 x0.25)+(500x0.15)+(700 x 0.3)
= Br 475mill
STDV = Br 168mill
Coefficient of Variation= 168/475
= 0.35
The binomial distribution
B. Mean number of =
accident per year
=
C. Mean monetary =
loss per year
=
D. Probability of accident =
Cont…
=
n!
E. P(r) = pr!(1
r
– p)
(n r )!
n--r
4
Cont…
Probability of 3 or more losses = 1 – probability of
0, 1, or 2losses
= 1 – (0.3679 + 0.3679 +
0.1839)
= 0.0803
2.3.3 Selecting the appropriate techniques for