OPERATION

MANAGEMENT

Modeling & Simmulation

Goals Of This Course
• Introduce Modeling
• Introduce Simulation
• Develop an Appreciation for the Need for Simulation
• Develop Facility in Simulation Model Building
• “Learn by Doing”--Lots of Case Studies

Introduction 2
What Is A Model ?

A Representation of an object, a system, or an

idea in some form other than that of the entity
itself.
(Shannon)

Introduction 3
Types of Models:
Physical
(Scale models, prototype plants,…)
Mathematical
(Analytical queueing models, linear programs,
simulation)

Introduction 4
What is Simulation?
• A Simulation of a system is the operation of a model, which is a
representation of that system.
• The model is amenable to manipulation which would be impossible,
too expensive, or too impractical to perform on the system which it
portrays.
• The operation of the model can be studied, and, from this, properties
concerning the behavior of the actual system can be inferred.

Introduction 5
Applications:
• Designing and analyzing manufacturing systems
• Evaluating H/W and S/W requirements for a
computer system
• Evaluating a new military weapons system or tactics
• Determining ordering policies for an inventory
system
• Designing communications systems and message
protocols for them

Introduction 6
Applications:(continued)
• Designing and operating transportation facilities such as freeways,
airports, subways, or ports
• Evaluating designs for service organizations such as hospitals, post
offices, or fast-food restaurants
• Analyzing financial or economic systems

Introduction 7
Why Teach with Simulations?
1.Deep Learning
• Instructional simulations have the potential to engage
students in "deep learning" that empowers understanding
as opposed to "surface learning" that requires only
memorization.
• A good summary of how deep learning contrasts with
surface learning is given at the Engineering Subject Centre
Deep learning means student can learn scientific methods including

• the importance of model building.

• Experiments and simulations are the way scientists do their
work.
• Using instructional simulations gives students concrete
formats of what it means to think like a scientist and do
scientific work.
• the relationships among variables in a model or models.
Simulation allows students to change parameter values and
see what happens.
• Students develop a feel for what variables are important
and the significance of magnitude changes in parameters.
• data issues, probability and sampling theory. Simulations
help students understand probability and sampling theory.
• Instructional simulations have proven their worth many
times over in the statistics based fields.
• The ability to match simulation results with an analytically
derived conclusion is especially valuable in beginning
classes, where students often struggle with sampling
theory.
• Given the utility of data simulation, it is not surprising that
SERC has an existing module on
teaching with data simulation.
• how to use a model to predict outcomes.
• Simulations help students understand that scientific
knowledge rests on the foundation of testable hypotheses.
• understanding and refining their own thought
processes. A well done simulation includes a
strong reflection summary that requires students
to think about how and why they behaved as they
did during the simulation.
• seeing social processes and social interactions in
action. This is one of the most significant
outcomes of simulation in social science disciplines
such as sociology and political science.
Steps In Simulation and
Model Building
1. Define an achievable goal
2. Put together a complete mix of skills on the team
3. Involve the end-user
4. Choose the appropriate simulation tools
5. Model the appropriate level(s) of detail
6. Start early to collect the necessary input data

Introduction 12
Steps In Simulation and
Model Building(cont’d)
7. Provide adequate and on-going documentation
8. Develop a plan for adequate model verification
(Did we get the “right answers ?”)
9. Develop a plan for model validation
(Did we ask the “right questions ?”)
10. Develop a plan for statistical output analysis

Introduction 13
Define An Achievable Goal

“To model the…” is NOT a goal!

“To model the…in order to
select/determine feasibility/…is a goal.
Goal selection is not cast in concrete
Goals change with increasing insight

Introduction 14
Put together a complete
mix of skills on the team
We Need:
-Knowledge of the system under investigation
-System analyst skills (model formulation)
-Model building skills (model Programming)
-Data collection skills
-Statistical skills (input data representation)

Introduction 15
Put together a complete
mix of skills on the team(continued)
We Need:
-More statistical skills (output data analysis)
-Even more statistical skills (design of experiments)
-Management skills (to get everyone pulling in the
same direction)

Introduction 16
INVOLVE THE END USER
-Modeling is a selling job!
-Does anyone believe the results?
-Will anyone put the results into action?
-The End-user (your customer) can (and must) do all
of the above BUT, first he must be convinced!
-He must believe it is HIS Model!

Introduction 17
Choose The Appropriate Simulation
Tools
Assuming Simulation is the appropriate means,
three alternatives exist:
1. Build Model in a General Purpose Language

2. Build Model in a General Simulation Language

3. Use a Special Purpose Simulation Package

Introduction 18
MODELLING W/ GENERAL PURPOSE
LANGUAGES
• Advantages:
• Little or no additional software cost
• Universally available (portable)
• No additional training (Everybody knows…(language X) ! )
• Disadvantages:
• Every model starts from scratch
• Very little reusable code
• Long development cycle for each model
• Difficult verification phase

Introduction 19
GEN. PURPOSE LANGUAGES
USED FOR SIMULATION
FORTRAN
• Probably more models than any other language.
PASCAL
• Not as universal as FORTRAN
MODULA
• Many improvements over PASCAL
ADA
• Department of Defense attempt at standardization
C, C++
• Object-oriented programming language

Introduction 20
MODELING W/ GENERAL
SIMULATION LANGUAGES
• Advantages:
• Standardized features often needed in modeling
• Shorter development cycle for each model
• Much assistance in model verification
• Very readable code
• Disadvantages:
• Higher software cost (up-front)
• Additional training required
• Limited portability

Introduction 21
GENERAL PURPOSE SIMULATION
LANGUAGES
• GPSS
• Block-structured Language
• Interpretive Execution
• FORTRAN-based (Help blocks)
• World-view: Transactions/Facilities
• SIMSCRIPT II.5
• English-like Problem Description Language
• Compiled Programs
• Complete language (no other underlying language)
• World-view: Processes/ Resources/ Continuous

Introduction 22
GEN. PURPOSE SIMULATION
LANGUAGES (continued)
• MODSIM III
• Modern Object-Oriented Language
• Modularity Compiled Programs
• Based on Modula2 (but compiles into C)
• World-view: Processes
• SIMULA
• ALGOL-based Problem Description Language
• Compiled Programs
• World-view: Processes

Introduction 23
GEN. PURPOSE SIMULATION
LANGUAGES (continued)
• SLAM
• Block-structured Language
• Interpretive Execution
• FORTRAN-based (and extended)
• World-view: Network / event / continuous
• CSIM
• process-oriented language
• C-based (C++ based)
• World-view: Processes

Introduction 24
MODELING W/ SPECIAL-PURPOSE
SIMUL. PACKAGES
• Advantages
• Very quick development of complex models
• Short learning cycle
• No programming--minimal errors in usage
• Disadvantages
• High cost of software
• Limited scope of applicability
• Limited flexibility (may not fit your specific application)

Introduction 25
SPECIAL PURPOSE PACKAGES
USED FOR SIMUL.
• NETWORK II.5
• Simulator for computer systems
• OPNET
• Simulator for communication networks, including
wireless networks
• COMNET III
• Simulator for communications networks
• SIMFACTORY
• Simulator for manufacturing operations

Introduction 26
THE REAL COST OF SIMULATION
Many people think of the cost of a simulation only in
terms of the software package price.
There are actually at least three components to the
cost of simulation:
1. Purchase price of the software
2. Programmer / Analyst time
3. “Timeliness of Results”

Introduction 27
TERMINOLOGY
• System
• A group of objects that are joined together in some
regular interaction or interdependence toward the
accomplishment of some purpose.
• Entity
• An object of interest in the system.
• E.g., customers at a bank

Introduction 28
TERMINOLOGY (continued)
• Attribute
• a property of an entity
• E.g., checking account balance
• Activity
• Represents a time period of specified length.
• Collection of operations that transform the state of an
entity
• E.g., making bank deposits

Introduction 29
TERMINOLOGY (continued)
• Event:
• change in the system state.
• E.g., arrival; beginning of a new execution; departure
• State Variables
• Define the state of the system
• Can restart simulation from state variables
• E.g., length of the job queue.

Introduction 30
TERMINOLOGY (continued)
• Process
• Sequence of events ordered on time

 Note:
• the three concepts(event, process,and activity) give rise to three alternative
ways of building discrete simulation models

Introduction 31
A GRAPHIC COMPARISON OF
DISCRETE SIMUL. METHODOLOGIES

A1 A2
P1
E1 E2 /E3 E4
A1 A2
P2
E1’ E2’ E3’ E4’

Simulation Time

Introduction 32
EXAMPLES OF SYSTEMS AND
COMPONENTS
System Entities Attributes Activities Events State
Variables

Banking Customers Checking Making Arrival; # of busy

account deposits Departure tellers; # of
balance customers
waiting

Note: State Variables may change continuously (continuous sys.)

over time or they may change only at a discrete set of points
(discrete sys.) in time.

Introduction 33
SIMULATION “WORLD-VIEWS”
• Pure Continuous Simulation

• Pure Discrete Simulation

• Event-oriented
• Activity-oriented
• Process-oriented

• Combined Discrete / Continuous Simulation

Introduction 34
Examples Of Both Type Models
• Continuous Time and Discrete Time Models:
CPU scheduling model vs. number of students
attending the class.

Introduction 35
 Examples (continued)
• Continuous State and Discrete State Models:
Example: Time spent by students in a weekly class
vs. Number of jobs in Q.

Introduction 36
Other Type Models

• Deterministic and Probabilistic Models:

Output
Output

Input Input
• Static and Dynamic Models:
CPU scheduling model vs. E = mc2

Introduction 37
Stochastic vs. Deterministic

System Model
1
Deterministic Deterministic
3

2
Stochastic Stochastic
4

Introduction 38
MODEL THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL(S)
OF DETAIL
• Define the boundaries of the system to be
modeled.
• Some characteristics of “the environment”
(outside the boundaries) may need to be
included in the model.
• Not all subsystems will require the same level
of detail.
• Control the tendency to model in great detail
those elements of the system which are well
understood, while skimming over other, less
well - understood sections.
Introduction 39
START EARLY TO COLLECT THE
NECESSARY INPUT DATA
Data comes in two quantities:
TOO MUCH!!
TOO LITTLE!!
With too much data, we need techniques for reducing it to a form
usable in our model.
With too little data, we need information which can be represented by
statistical distributions.

Introduction 40
PROVIDE ADEQUATE AND ON-
GOING DOCUMENTATION
In general, programmers hate to document. (They
love to program!)
Documentation is always their lowest priority item.
(Usually scheduled for just after the budget runs
out!)
They believe that “only wimps read manuals.”
What can we do?
• Use self-documenting languages
• Insist on built-in user instructions(help screens)
• Set (or insist on) standards for coding style

Introduction 41
DEVELOP PLAN FOR ADEQUATE
MODEL VERIFICATION
Did we get the “right answers?”
(No such thing!!)
Simulation provides something that no other technique does:
Step by step tracing of the model execution.
This provides a very natural way of checking the internal consistency of
the model.

Introduction 42
DEVELOP A PLAN FOR MODEL
VALIDATION
VALIDATION: “Doing the right thing”
Or “Asking the right questions”
How do we know our model represents the
system under investigation?
• Compare to existing system?
• Deterministic Case?

Introduction 43
DEVELOP A PLAN FOR
STATISTICAL OUTPUT ANALYSIS

• How much is enough?

Long runs versus Replications

• Techniques for Analysis

Introduction 44
TERIMAKASIH