Inferential statistics

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 Course objectives:
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At the end of this chapter the student will be able to:

1. Understand the principles of estimation and
differentiate between point and interval estimations
2. Compute appropriate confidence intervals for
population means and proportions and interpret the
findings
3. Describe methods of sample size calculation for cross
– sectional studies
 INTRODUCTION
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 The sample from a population is used to provide the estimates of

the population parameters.
 Inferential statistics are the statistical methods used to draw
conclusions from a sample and make inferences to the entire
population.
 The two primary methods for making inference are
- Estimation and
-Hypothesis testing
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 Inferential statistics…
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Parameter is a numerical descriptive measure of a

population (μ is an example of a parameter).
Statistic is a numerical descriptive measure of a
sample (X is an example of a statistic).
 To each sample statistic there corresponds a

population parameter.
 We use X, S2, S, p, etc. to estimate μ, σ2, σ, π,

etc.
 This does not, of course, indicate that the mean

of every
sample will equal the population mean.
 Inferential statistics…
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Every member of the

population has the
same chance of being
selected in the sample
Population

Parameters

Random sample
Estimation
Statistics
 Estimation
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 The objective of estimation is to determine approximate value of a

population parameter on the basis of a sample statistic.

For example, a sample survey could be used to produce :

– estimates for the proportion of smokers among all adult people in

the population;
 Point and Interval Estimates
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Estimate

Point estimate Interval estimate

- sample mean - confidence interval for mean
- sample proportion - confidence interval for proportion

Point estimate is always within the interval estimate

 Point Estimation
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A point estimator draws inferences about a population by

estimating the value of an unknown parameter using a single value
or point.
The point estimator gets closer to the parameter value with an

increased sample size, but point estimators don’t reflect the effects
of larger sample sizes.
Hence, we will employ the interval estimator to estimate

population parameters
 Interval Estimation
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 An interval estimate is a statement that a population

parameter has a value lying between two specified limits.
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Properties of Sampling Distribution of Means

1. The mean of the sampling distribution of means is the
same as the population mean, μ.
2. The SE of the sampling distribution of means is σ / √n.
3. The shape of the sampling distribution of means is
approximately a normal curve, regardless of the shape of
the population distribution and provided n is large
enough (Central limit theorem).
In practice, the approximation is a workable if n is 30 or
more.
 Confidence interval for a
single mean
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 Consider the standard normal distribution and the

statement
Pr (-1.96≤ Z ≤1.96) = 0. 95
i.e. 95% of the standard normal curve lies between
+1.96 and –1.96 SD.
 If one chooses the sampling distribution of means (a

normal curve with mean μ and standard error of mean

σ/√n), then ,
Pr(-1.96 ≤ ( X - μ)/(σ /√n) ≤ 1.96) = 0.95
 Cont…
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 A little manipulation without altering the probability value

of 95 percent gives,
Pr( X - 1.96(σ /√n) ≤ μ ≤ X + 1.96(σ /√n) ) = 0.95
 The range ẍ -1.96(σ /√n) to ẍ + 1.96(σ /√n) is called the
95% confidence interval;
 Therefore, ẍ - 1.96(σ /√n) is the lower confidence limit,
while
ẍ + 1.96(σ /√n) is the upper confidence limit
Therefore, C.I = ẍ ± Z (σ
/√n)
If many different random samples are taken, and if the
confidence interval for each is determined, then it is
expected that 95% of these computed intervals will contain
the population mean (μ).
 Cont…
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E.g. A random sample of 100 drug-treated cancer

patients has a mean survival time of 46.9 months. If
the SD of the population is 43.3 months, find a 95%
confidence interval for the population mean.
Solution:
 CI=ẍ ± Z(σ /√n)=46.9 ± (1.96) (43.3/√100) = 46.9

± 8.5
= (38.4 to 55.4
months)
Hence, there is 95% certainty that the limits (38.4 ,
55.4) embrace the mean survival times in the
population from which the sample arose.
 Confidence interval for a single
proportion
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 P (or π) = proportion of “successes” in a

population (parameter)
 The population represents categorical data
 The sampling distribution of proportions has
the following characteristics:
where, Q=1-P
 The shape is approximately normal provided
n is sufficiently large - in this case, nP≥5 are
the requirements for sufficiently large n
(central limit theorem for proportions).
 Cont…
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 The confidence interval for the population

proportion (P) is given by the formula:
p ± Z σp where,
p = sample proportion, σp = standard error of
the proportion
 Cont…
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Example: An epidemiologist is worried about the ever

increasing trend of malaria in a certain locality and
wants to estimate the proportion of persons infected
in the peak malaria transmission period.
If he takes a random sample of 150 persons in that
locality during the peak transmission period and finds
that 60 of them are positive for malaria, find
a) 95%
b)90%
c)99% confidence intervals for the proportion of the
whole infected people in that locality during the peak
malaria transmission period .
 Cont…
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 p= 60/150 = 0.4…….q=1-p=1-0.4=0.6
A) A 95% C.I for the population proportion
95% C.I = p ± Z √pq/n
= 0.4 ± 1.96√(0.4x0.6)/150
= 0.4 ± 1.96 (0.04)
= (0.4 ± 0.078)
= (0.322, 0.478)
 Cont…
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b) A 90% C.I for the population proportion (the

proportion of the whole infected people in
that locality) = 0.4 ± 1.64 (0.04)
= (0.4 ± 0.066)
= (0.334, 0.466)
C) A 99% C.I for the population proportion ( the
proportion of the whole infected people in
that locality) = 0.4 ± 2.58 (0.04)
= (0.4 ± 0.103)
= (0.297, 0.503)
 Sample Size Estimation in cross –
sectional studies
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 In planning any investigation we must decide how

many people need to be studied
 If the study is too small we may fail to detect
important effects, or may estimate effects too
imprecisely.
 If the study is too large then we will waste resources.
 Estimating sample size for a
proportion
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• Estimate how big the proportion might be

(P)
• Choose the margin of error you will allow in
the estimate of the proportion (say ± w)
• Choose the level of confidence
• The minimum sample size required, for a
very large population (N≥10,000) is:
n = Z2 p(1-p) / w2
 Cont…
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Example 1
a) p = 0.26 , w = 0.03 , Z = 1.96 ( i.e., for a 95% C.I.)
n = (1.96)2 (0.26×0.74)/(0.03)2
= 821.25 ≈ 822
Thus, the study should include at least 822 subjects.
b) If the above sample is to be taken from a relatively
small population (say N = 3000) , the required minimum
sample will be obtained from the above estimate by
making some adjustment .
Correction formula: nc=n/(1+n/N)
=821.25/(1+(822/3000))
= 645.2 ≈ 646 subjects
 Estimating sample size for
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a mean
 The same approach is used but with SE =
σ/√n
The required (minimum) sample size for a
very large population is given by:
n = Z2 σ2 / w2
 Cont…
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Eg. A Nurse wishes to estimate mean haemoglobin level

in a defined community. From preliminary contact he
thinks this mean is about 150 mg/l with a standard
deviation of 32 m/l. If he is willing to tolerate a sampling
error of up to 5 mg/l in his estimate, how many subjects
should be included in his study? (α=5%, two sided)
- If the population size is assumed to be very large, the

required sample size would be:

n = (1.96)2 (32)2 / (5)2 = 157.4 ≈ 158 persons
- If the population size is , say, 2000,

The required sample size would be 146 persons

adjusting with the correction formula
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Thanks !