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Paras PPT

The document presents a seminar on predictive models for time series sales forecasting, focusing on the use of historical sales data to inform business decisions. It covers various analytical methods, including trend analysis, linear regression, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA models, along with performance evaluation metrics. The findings aim to assist in inventory management, production planning, and marketing strategies for businesses.

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1 views10 pages

Paras PPT

The document presents a seminar on predictive models for time series sales forecasting, focusing on the use of historical sales data to inform business decisions. It covers various analytical methods, including trend analysis, linear regression, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA models, along with performance evaluation metrics. The findings aim to assist in inventory management, production planning, and marketing strategies for businesses.

Uploaded by

robert714paul
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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D Y Patil College Of Engineering, Akurdi, Pune

Department of Artificial Intelligence and Data Science

AY : 2024-25 Semester V

Third Year Engineering

Subject: Seminar and Technical Communication


Topic: Predictive Model for Time Series Sales Forecasting.
Name of Student: Paras Vithal Yadav
Roll Number: TEAIDA76

Mrs. Surbhi Khushwah Mrs.N.J.Mahale


Guide Name TE Seminar Coordinator
Predictive
Models for Time
Series Sales
Forecasting

Predictive models use historical sales data to forecast future sales.


This allows businesses to make informed decisions about
inventory, production, marketing, and pricing.

by Paras Yadav
Introduction to Time Series Analysis
Time series analysis involves studying data collected over time, identifying patterns, and understanding the relationships between variables.

1 Trend 2 Seasonality
A general upward or downward movement over time. Repetitive patterns that occur at regular intervals, like
monthly or yearly cycles.

3 Cyclical 4 Noise
Long-term fluctuations that may not have a fixed period, Random fluctuations that are not easily predictable or
often influenced by economic conditions. explained.
Understanding Sales Data Patterns
It is crucial to carefully analyze sales data to identify underlying patterns and trends that can inform forecasting models.

1 2 3 4

Trend Analysis Seasonality Cyclical Analysis Noise Analysis


Analysis
Identify the long-term Observe long-term Understand random
direction of sales, whether Recognize recurring fluctuations in sales that variations in sales that are
increasing, decreasing, or patterns in sales, such as may be influenced by not easily explained by
stable. higher sales during economic factors or trends or seasonality.
holidays or specific broader market trends.
seasons.
Linear Regression Models
Linear regression models are simple and widely used, assuming a linear relationship between sales and time.

Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression

Uses a single independent variable (time) to predict sales. Incorporates multiple independent variables, such as
marketing spend or competitor activity, to improve
prediction accuracy.
Exponential Smoothing
Methods
Exponential smoothing methods assign more weight to recent data, giving a
smoother forecast for time series data.

Simple Exponential Smoothing


Averages past sales with a smoothing factor to predict future sales.

Holt's Linear Trend


Accounts for both level and trend in time series data, improving
prediction accuracy for trending data.

Holt-Winters Seasonal
Further incorporates seasonality in the model, making it suitable
for data with strong seasonal patterns.
ARIMA Models
ARIMA models use past values of the time series and errors to
predict future values.

Autoregressive (AR) Uses past values of the time


series itself.

Integrated (I) Accounts for differences in


the time series, making it
stationary.

Moving Average (MA) Uses past forecast errors to


improve predictions.
Evaluating Model
Performance
Metrics are used to assess the accuracy of forecasting models and
compare different models.

Mean Absolute Error Root Mean Squared


(MAE) Error (RMSE)
Measures the average
absolute difference between Penalizes larger errors more
predicted and actual values. heavily than MAE.

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)


Calculates the average percentage error between predictions and
actual values.
Implementing Forecasting in
Business Decisions
Forecasting results can be used to guide business decisions, such as inventory
planning, production scheduling, and marketing campaigns.

Inventory Management Production Planning


Forecast demand to optimize inventory Plan production schedules based on
levels and minimize stockouts or excess predicted sales to meet demand and
inventory. minimize production costs.

Marketing Campaigns Pricing Strategies


Allocate marketing budgets and Adjust pricing strategies based on
optimize campaigns based on projected forecast demand and competitor pricing.
sales growth.
THANK YOU

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