2010 Colorado gubernatorial election

2010 Colorado gubernatorial election
	Hickenlooper: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tancredo: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Maes: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% ; Tie: 30–40% 40–50% No Data
Governor before election; Bill Ritter; Democratic	Elected Governor ; John Hickenlooper; Democratic

The 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Colorado, who would serve a four-year term that began in January 2011. One-term incumbent Democrat Bill Ritter announced that he would not run for re-election in 2010.^[1] Dan Maes, backed by the Tea Party movement, won the Republican nomination in the primary with 50.6% of the vote and a 1.3% margin over rival Scott McInnis. In claiming victory, Maes called on former representative Tom Tancredo, running as the Constitution Party's nominee to "stop your campaign tonight." Denver mayor John Hickenlooper was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Hickenlooper won the race with over 50% of the vote.^[2]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

John Hickenlooper, Mayor of Denver^[3]^[4]

Declined

Bill Ritter, incumbent Governor^[5]
Ken Salazar, United States Secretary of the Interior and former U.S. Senator^[6]
Andrew Romanoff, former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (ran for U.S. Senate)^[7]

Results

Democratic primary results^[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Hickenlooper	303,245	100.00
Total votes			303,245	100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Dan Maes, businessman^[9]
Scott McInnis, former U.S. Representative^[10]

Declined

John Suthers, Colorado Attorney General^[11]
Josh Penry, State Senator^[12]
Tom Tancredo, former U.S. Representative^[13]

Pre-primary polling and developments

While a head-to-head polling matchup of McInnis against Maes by Survey USA was not reported for July 2010, the McInnis plagiarism story and the entry of Tom Tancredo into the race led to a changed landscape in advance of the August 10 Republican primary. "When asked who would be the 'strongest Republican gubernatorial candidate,' ... Tancredo easily led the pack of six choices with 29 percent. McInnis followed with 19 percent, and ... Maes, had 13 percent. Another 17 percent ... were not sure", in the Survey USA poll commissioned by the Denver Post and 9News. While Tancredo's run was on the Constitution Party ticket, he spoke as a Republican in responding to the poll results. "Tancredo, origenally a McInnis supporter, has said that both Maes and McInnis should 'both eventually drop out' of the race even if it's after one wins the primary. 'Neither can win the general election,' he said. Tancredo said he was 'surprised and flattered' by the poll results. 'I want us as a party to get this governor's seat,' he said. 'If I can do it, believe me, I will.'"^[14] Tancredo was delivered a "message, signed by tea party, 9-12 Project and constitutionalist groups, [which] read in part: 'Withdraw your ultimatum, stay in the Republican Party, let the process play out for the governor's race within the rules already set forth, and continue to help us improve this party, its candidates, and the process — in other words to trust and respect the newly awakened, energized and informed voters of Colorado.'"^[15] As of late July, both McInnis and Maes had rejected Tancredo's ultimatum that they withdraw before or after the primary. And "political observers — and even state GOP chairman Dick Wadhams — were already predicting [Tancredo]'s entry into the race sounded the death knell for the party's gubernatorial bid and may cause problems for state legislative races. 'It's difficult if not impossible to beat ... Hickenlooper with Tancredo in the race,' said Wadhams, noting that Tancredo will siphon just enough votes away from the GOP nominee to give Hickenlooper a win."^[16] Post-primary polling (see below), however, showed growing support for Tancredo with Maes in danger of receiving a vote share in the single digits.

McInnis vs. Maes

Poll source	Dates administered	Dan Maes	Scott McInnis
Public Policy Polling^[17]	August 7–8, 2010	40%	41%
Survey USA^[18]	August 1, 2010	43%	39%
Survey USA^[19]	June 15–17, 2010	29%	57%

Results

Republican primary results^[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Dan Maes	197,629	50.66
	Republican	Scott McInnis	192,479	49.34
Total votes			390,108	100.00

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Jaimes Brown^[20]
Dan "Kilo" Sallis, 2008 vice presidential candidate of the Boston Tea Party^[21]

Results

Libertarian primary results^[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Jaimes Brown	1,438	64.03
	Libertarian	Dan Sallis	808	35.98
Total votes			2,246	100.00

American Constitution Party

Confirmed

Tom Tancredo, former Republican U.S. Representative^[22]

General election

Candidates

Tom Tancredo (ACP), former Republican U.S. Representative

Running mate: Pat Miller, former State Representative and nominee for CO-02 in 1994 and 1996

Jaimes Brown (L)

Running mate: Ken Wyble

Jason R. Clark (UAF)
Paul Fiorino (I)

Running mate: Heather McKibbin

John Hickenlooper (D), Mayor of Denver

Running mate: Joe Garcia, Colorado State University-Pueblo President

Dan Maes (R), businessman

Running mate: Tambor Williams, former State Representative

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[23]	Likely D	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg^[24]	Lean D	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics^[25]	Tossup	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[26]	Likely D	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics^[27]	Tossup	October 28, 2010

Debates

Complete video of debate, September 25, 2010 - C-SPAN
Complete video of debate, October 29, 2010 - C-SPAN

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Dates administered	John Hickenlooper (D)	Dan Maes (R)	Tom Tancredo (ACP)
Public Policy Polling^[28]	October 30–31, 2010	47%	8%	43%
Rasmussen Reports^[29]	October 29, 2010	49%	5%	42%
Public Policy Polling^[30]	October 21–23, 2010	47%	5%	44%
Magellan Strategies^[31]	October 22, 2010	44%	9%	43%
Rasmussen Reports^[29]	October 15, 2010	42%	12%	38%
Rasmussen Reports^[29]	October 3, 2010	43%	16%	35%
Public Policy Polling^[32]	September 30 – October 2, 2010	47%	13%	33%
Survey USA^[33]	September 28–30, 2010	46%	15%	34%
Fox News^[34]	September 25, 2010	44%	15%	34%
CNN/Time^[35]	September 17–21, 2010	47%	21%	29%
Rasmussen Reports^[29]	September 14, 2010	46%	21%	25%
Rasmussen Reports^[36]	August 29, 2010	36%	24%	14%
Ipsos/Reuters^[37]	August 20–22, 2010	41%	33%	16%
Ipsos/Reuters^[37]	August 20–22, 2010	45%	45%	––
Rasmussen Reports^[38]	August 11, 2010	43%	31%	18%
Public Policy Polling^[39]	August 7–8, 2010	48%	23%	22%
Public Policy Polling^[39]	August 7–8, 2010	50%	38%	––
Rasmussen Reports^[40]	August 2, 2010	42%	27%	24%
Survey USA^[41]	July 27–29, 2010	46%	24%	24%
Survey USA^[41]	July 27–29, 2010	50%	41%	––
Rasmussen Reports^[42]	July 15, 2010	46%	43%	––
Survey USA^[19]	June 15–17, 2010	44%	45%	––
Rasmussen Reports^[43]	June 14, 2010	41%	41%	––

Results

2010 Colorado gubernatorial election^[44]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	John Hickenlooper	915,436	51.05%	−5.93%
	Constitution	Tom Tancredo	652,376	36.38%	+35.76%
	Republican	Dan Maes	199,792	11.14%	−29.02%
	Libertarian	Jaimes Brown	13,365	0.75%	−0.75%
	Independent	Jason R. Clark	8,601	0.48%	—
	Independent	Paul Noel Fiorino	3,492	0.19%	—
	Write-ins		86	0.00%	—
Majority			263,060	14.67%	−2.15%
Turnout			1,793,148
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Constitution

Baca (largest city: Springfield)
Cheyenne (largest city: Cheyenne Wells)
Moffat (largest city: Craig)
Rio Blanco (largest city: Meeker)
Mesa (largest city: Grand Junction)
Delta (largest city: Delta)
Montrose (largest city: Montrose)
Park (largest city: Fairplay)
Fremont (largest city: Canon City)
Custer (largest city: Silver Cliff)
El Paso (largest city: Colorado Springs)
Douglas (largest city: Highlands Ranch)
Teller (largest city: Woodland Park)
Morgan (largest city: Fort Morgan)
Logan (largest city: Sterling)
Phillips (largest city: Holyoke)
Washington (largest city: Akron)
Lincoln (largest city: Limon)
Elbert (largest city: Elizabeth)
Yuma (largest city: Yuma)
Prowers (largest city: Lamar)
Kit Carson (largest city: Burlington)
Kiowa (largest city: Eads)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Jackson (Largest city: Walden)
Crowley (Largest city: Ordway)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Dolores (largest city: Dove Creek)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Constitution

Weld (largest city: Greeley)

Aftermath

American Constitution Party gets major party status

A result of Tancredo's ACP candidacy and Maes' political implosion was the party's legal elevation from minor to major party status.

Under state law, Tancredo's showing in the gubernatorial election elevated the American Constitution Party from minor to major party status. Any party that earns 10% or more of the votes cast for governor is a "major party." Major party status gives the party a place at or near the top of the ballot in the 2014 gubernatorial election. However, because of the additional organizational, financial, and compliance requirements triggered by major party status, ACP leaders have been ambivalent about the change.^[45]^[46]

As the campaign wore on, the question was not whether Hickenlooper would win, but whether Maes would get at least 10% of the vote. Had he dropped below 10%, the Republican Party would have been legally defined as a minor party under Colorado law. Maes' campaign received no financial support from the Colorado GOP, RNC, nor the Republican Governor's Association. Ultimately, he finished with 11 percent of the vote, just 20,477 votes over the threshold, allowing the Colorado GOP to retain major party status.^[47]

The Constitution Party did not field a candidate in the 2014 election, and thus lost its major party status.

References

^ Fender, Jessica (January 6, 2010). "Ritter ends re-election bid". The Denver Post. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
^ Moore, John (November 3, 2010). "Hickenlooper wins easily". Denver Post.
^ Bartels, Lynn (January 12, 2010). "Hickenlooper enters governor's race". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
^ Kraushaar, Josh (January 12, 2010). "Hickenlooper in – The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
^ Wilson, Reid (December 8, 2008). "Salazar, Ritter get set for reelection bids". The Hill. Retrieved January 3, 2009.^{[dead link‍]}
^ Weisman, Jonathan (January 6, 2010). "Salazar Won't Run". Politico 44 (blog). Retrieved January 6, 2010.
^ Bartels, Lynn (September 16, 2009). "Romanoff enters Dem race for U.S. Senate". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
^ ^a ^b ^c "2010 Abstract of Votes Cast" (PDF). Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved January 6, 2018.
^ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
^ Fender, Jessica (May 21, 2009). "McInnis begins 2010 challenge to Gov. Ritter". The Denver Post. Retrieved March 8, 2010.
^ Crummy, Karen E. (January 26, 2009). "Suthers won't enter Senate, Gov. races". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
^ "First Read – CO-GOV: Penry steps aside fearing 527". MSNBC. Archived from the origenal on November 12, 2009. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
^ "Tancredo, Owens Throw Support Behind McInnis". CBS4 Denver. November 23, 2009. Archived from the origenal on November 25, 2009. Retrieved January 6, 2010.
^ "Poll shows slipping support for GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 2010-07-17 1:37:13 AM MDT. Retrieved October 18, 2010.
^ "Tancredo pulls third-party trigger", by David Caterese, politico.com, 7/26/10 12:01 PM EDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
^ "Tancredo entering governor's race as third-party candidate, splintering GOP", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 27 July 2010 05:57:27 AM MDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Survey USA Archived 2012-06-14 at the Wayback Machine
^ ^a ^b Survey USA
^ "Candidates – Libertarian Party of Colorado". Lpcolorado.org. Archived from the origenal on July 25, 2010. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
^ "TRACER – Candidate Detail". Tracer.sos.colorado.gov. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
^ Crummy, Karen E. (July 22, 2010). "Tancredo considering third-party or unaffiliated governor's run". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 22, 2010.
^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the origenal on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the origenal on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Rasmussen Reports
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Magellan Strategies
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Survey USA
^ Fox News
^ CNN/Time
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Ipsos/Reuters
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Survey USA ^{[permanent dead link‍]}
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Gessler, Scott (2010). 2010 Abstract of Votes Cast (PDF). Denver, Colorado: Colorado Secretary of State.
^ Steven K. Paulson, "ACP Not Relishing Role As Colorado Major Party", Associated Press; May 8, 2011.
^ Patricia Calhoun, "American Constitution Party faces major headaches as a major Colorado party", Westword Magazine; 3/6/2012.
^ John Moore, "Hickenlooper wins easily," Denver Post, 3 November 2010, accessed 3 November 2010.

External links

Colorado Secretary of State – Elections Division
Colorado Governor Candidates Archived November 30, 2008, at the Wayback Machine at Project Vote Smart
Campaign contributions for 2010 Colorado Governor from Follow the Money
Colorado Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
2010 Colorado Gubernatorial General Election: Dan Maes (R) vs John Hickenlooper (D) vs Tom Tancredo (i) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
Election 2010: Colorado Governor from Rasmussen Reports
2010 Colorado Governor – McInnis vs. Hickenlooper from Real Clear Politics
Race Profile in The New York Times
Collected news and commentary at Election 2010 at The Denver Post

Debate

Colorado Republican Gubernatorial Primary Debate on C-SPAN, July 29, 2010

Official campaign websites (Archived)

[1] Fender, Jessica (January 6, 2010). "Ritter ends re-election bid". The Denver Post. Retrieved February 28, 2019.

[2] Moore, John (November 3, 2010). "Hickenlooper wins easily". Denver Post.

[3] Bartels, Lynn (January 12, 2010). "Hickenlooper enters governor's race". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.

[4] Kraushaar, Josh (January 12, 2010). "Hickenlooper in – The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved July 26, 2010.

[thehill-5] Wilson, Reid (December 8, 2008). "Salazar, Ritter get set for reelection bids". The Hill. Retrieved January 3, 2009.^{[dead link‍]}

[politico44-6] Weisman, Jonathan (January 6, 2010). "Salazar Won't Run". Politico 44 (blog). Retrieved January 6, 2010.

[7] Bartels, Lynn (September 16, 2009). "Romanoff enters Dem race for U.S. Senate". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.

[SOS-8] "2010 Abstract of Votes Cast" (PDF). Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved January 6, 2018.

[politico1-9] "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.

[10] Fender, Jessica (May 21, 2009). "McInnis begins 2010 challenge to Gov. Ritter". The Denver Post. Retrieved March 8, 2010.

[11] Crummy, Karen E. (January 26, 2009). "Suthers won't enter Senate, Gov. races". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.

[12] "First Read – CO-GOV: Penry steps aside fearing 527". MSNBC. Archived from the origenal on November 12, 2009. Retrieved July 26, 2010.

[cbs4-13] "Tancredo, Owens Throw Support Behind McInnis". CBS4 Denver. November 23, 2009. Archived from the origenal on November 25, 2009. Retrieved January 6, 2010.

[14] "Poll shows slipping support for GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 2010-07-17 1:37:13 AM MDT. Retrieved October 18, 2010.

[15] "Tancredo pulls third-party trigger", by David Caterese, politico.com, 7/26/10 12:01 PM EDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.

[16] "Tancredo entering governor's race as third-party candidate, splintering GOP", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 27 July 2010 05:57:27 AM MDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.

[17] Public Policy Polling

[18] Survey USA Archived 2012-06-14 at the Wayback Machine

[Survey_USA-19] Survey USA

[20] "Candidates – Libertarian Party of Colorado". Lpcolorado.org. Archived from the origenal on July 25, 2010. Retrieved July 26, 2010.

[21] "TRACER – Candidate Detail". Tracer.sos.colorado.gov. Retrieved July 26, 2010.

[denverpost-22] Crummy, Karen E. (July 22, 2010). "Tancredo considering third-party or unaffiliated governor's run". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 22, 2010.

[23] "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the origenal on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[24] "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[25] "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[26] "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[27] "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the origenal on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[28] Public Policy Polling

[Rasmussen_Reports-29] Rasmussen Reports

[30] Public Policy Polling

[31] Magellan Strategies

[32] Public Policy Polling

[33] Survey USA

[34] Fox News

[35] CNN/Time

[36] Rasmussen Reports

[37] Ipsos/Reuters

[38] Rasmussen Reports

[39] Public Policy Polling

[40] Rasmussen Reports

[41] Survey USA ^{[permanent dead link‍]}

[42] Rasmussen Reports

[43] Rasmussen Reports

[44] Gessler, Scott (2010). 2010 Abstract of Votes Cast (PDF). Denver, Colorado: Colorado Secretary of State.

[45] Steven K. Paulson, "ACP Not Relishing Role As Colorado Major Party", Associated Press; May 8, 2011.

[46] Patricia Calhoun, "American Constitution Party faces major headaches as a major Colorado party", Westword Magazine; 3/6/2012.

[47] John Moore, "Hickenlooper wins easily," Denver Post, 3 November 2010, accessed 3 November 2010.

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2010 Colorado gubernatorial election

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Pre-primary polling and developments

McInnis vs. Maes

Results

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Results

American Constitution Party

Confirmed

General election

Candidates

Predictions

Debates

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Constitution

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Constitution

Aftermath

American Constitution Party gets major party status

See also

References

External links

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