WW 679 SEVERE TSTM KS MO OK 192230Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
530 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Kansas
Western Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to
intensify through the evening across southeast Kansas and northern
Oklahoma, spreading into parts of western Missouri through the
evening. Damaging winds and some hail are the main concerns.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south of
Bartlesville OK to 100 miles north northeast of Joplin MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 677...WW 678...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Hart
WW 678 TORNADO MN WI LS 192205Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast Minnesota
Northwest Wisconsin
Lake Superior
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across
northeastern Minnesota and track eastward across the watch area this
evening. Isolated intense/supercells are possible, capable of hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Grand
Marais MN to 85 miles south of Duluth MN. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 677...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.
...Hart
WW 677 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 191910Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 677
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Iowa
Southern and East-Central Minnesota
Western Wisconsin
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop this afternoon
while posing a threat for large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in
diameter. As this activity spreads east-northeastward, damaging
winds around 60-70 mph may become more of a threat through this
evening, especially if thunderstorms can form into clusters. A
tornado or two also appears possible with any persistent,
surface-based supercell.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest
of Eau Claire WI to 15 miles southwest of Mason City IA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Gleason
WW 0679 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0679 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0678 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0678 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0677 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 677
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..09/19/24
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 677
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC033-037-063-067-081-089-109-131-147-189-191-195-192140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW EMMET
FLOYD HANCOCK HOWARD
KOSSUTH MITCHELL PALO ALTO
WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH
MNC003-013-019-025-037-039-043-045-047-049-053-055-059-079-091-
099-103-109-123-131-139-143-147-157-161-163-169-192140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BLUE EARTH CARVER
CHISAGO DAKOTA DODGE
FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE HENNEPIN HOUSTON
ISANTI LE SUEUR MARTIN
MOWER NICOLLET OLMSTED
RAMSEY RICE SCOTT
SIBLEY STEELE WABASHA
WASECA WASHINGTON WINONA
MD 2088 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Areas affected...Minnesota and northern Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 192208Z - 192315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of severe wind, hail, and a
tornado.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is ongoing along an occluding
front and lifting warm front located across Minnesota and Wisconsin
into Canada. Storms are located within a narrow corridor of
instability and have shown increase in intensity over the last 30
minutes, with a few cells exhibiting rotation. A watch is likely to
be needed to cover this threat.
..Thornton/Hart.. 09/19/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...
LAT...LON 45969333 47299288 48089240 47979006 47768959 46908947
46049015 45549038 45859308 45969333
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across central/eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and western
Wisconsin. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds may
occur across this region. Farther south, an area of locally severe
wind gusts and hail may also develop over parts of eastern Kansas,
southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma.
...20Z Update...
The 18Z observed Minneapolis sounding showed steep mid-level lapse
rates in addition to a long and predominantly straight hodograph.
The expectation remains that a few supercells may initially develop
from north-central Iowa into east-central Minnesota over the next
2-3 hours. These storms would pose the greatest risk for
large/very-large hail. Given weak low-level shear evident on area
VAD data in combination with linear forcing from the cold front,
upscale growth should still occur quickly with a transition to more
of a damaging wind threat. As this is in line with the thinking of
the previous forecast, no changes have been made other than minor
changes to the general thunderstorm area.
See the previous discussion for further details.
..Wendt.. 09/19/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/
...Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa...
Widely spaced and mainly elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this
morning across parts of IA into eastern MN and western WI should
continue to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. In
their wake, daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass
(surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and somewhat steep
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to at least moderate
instability by mid afternoon along/ahead of a cold front extending
north to south from western MN into eastern NE and western IA. An
upper low over northern ND and southeast SK/southwest MB will
continue to advance slowly northeastward across south-central Canada
through the period. A belt of 35-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly
winds on the southern periphery of the upper low will spread
eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through
this evening. A veering/strengthening wind profile with height
through mid levels will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear
across the warm sector. This shear will be sufficient for organized
thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells.
Current expectations are that scattered thunderstorms will develop
by mid to late afternoon across central/eastern MN into
northern/central IA along or just ahead of the eastward-advancing
cold front. A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will foster
robust updrafts, and any initial supercells should pose a threat for
large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). But, a
fairly quick transition to more linear structures should occur given
the presence of the cold front, with a potentially greater damaging
wind threat evolving with eastward extent through the evening before
convection eventually weakens. South-southwesterly low-level flow
and related shear ahead of the front is not forecast to be overly
strong by most guidance this afternoon. But, some threat for a
couple of tornadoes remains apparent, especially with any sustained
supercells across east-central/southern MN into northern IA late
this afternoon/early evening.
...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma...
An upper ridge, with rather warm mid-level temperatures, will remain
centered over the southern Plains today. The surface cold front is
forecast to continue moving east-southeastward across the mid MO
Valley and central Plains through late this afternoon. A surface
trough extending southward from this front across the southern High
Plains should also mix eastward through peak daytime heating. Given
weak large-scale ascent and rather warm mid-level temperatures
across this area, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty
regarding how many additional thunderstorms will develop later
today, notwithstanding the ongoing (mainly elevated) convection over
eastern KS and far northwest MO. Still, other surface-based
thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon along/near the
front/dryline intersection in south-central KS/north-central OK, and
along the cold front in eastern KS. While low/mid-level flow should
remain fairly modest, steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate
instability should support a risk for mainly severe/damaging
downdrafts as convection spreads east-southeastward into western MO
and northeast OK through this evening.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NM INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon to
early evening in New Mexico and the southern High Plains, mid
Missouri Valley to upper Mississippi Valley, and central
Appalachians region.
...Southern High Plains...
In advance of a southern-stream shortwave trough reaching the Four
Corners, a strong midlevel jet is forecast to eject over NM by early
evening Saturday. This will yield favorable deep-layer shear for
organized storms across NM into parts of northwest TX. Strengthening
large-scale ascent within a low-level warm/moist conveyor should
overspread this region by Saturday morning. This should yield
early-period convection and renders moderate uncertainty over the
degree of destabilization by afternoon.
Still, with ample boundary-layer heating to the south of early-day
activity, a plume of at least weak-surface based buoyancy should
develop. Renewed afternoon to early evening thunderstorms could
become severe. Steep mid-level lapse rates should be confined along
and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, rendering further
uncertainty over the intensity and coverage of the severe threat.
The eastern extent of the threat should be limited by the confined
buoyancy plume and decreasing instability deeper into TX/OK.
...Central Plains and Lower/Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley...
A relatively complex and uncertain evolution to convective potential
remains evident on Saturday afternoon/evening. This region will
largely remain within a low-amplitude mid-level ridge. This may
flatten somewhat in between a southern-stream shortwave trough in
the Southwest and a northern-stream trough over the southern Prairie
Provinces to along the ND/MN international border. In association
with the latter wave, a surface cold front should push southeast in
the north-central states. Guidance varies with the degree of
destabilization ahead of it, and especially with the spatial extent
of afternoon/evening convection. There is sufficient confidence in
destabilization and storm coverage to introduce a 5% area from the
mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, though uncertainty remains
rather high.
...Parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move
through northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the upper Ohio
Valley into the Mid Atlantic on Saturday. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development will be possible across the region during
the afternoon. Veering wind profiles within the northwesterly flow
regime will support effective shear for some storm organization,
though it remains somewhat uncertain if instability will become
sufficient to support an organized severe threat. Guidance has
trended toward somewhat greater instability and storm coverage, and
a small Marginal Risk has been included where confidence is
currently highest in some severe threat.
..Dean.. 09/19/2024
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry
and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm
development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into
northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these
conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain
localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this
outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/
...Synopsis...
A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower
CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing
into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions
across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon.
While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions,
fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time.
Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH
should limit fire-weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the Intermountain West and
eject into the central and northern Mississippi Valley through the
middle of next week, encouraging surface high pressure and cooler
air to gradually overspread much of the CONUS. Appreciable rainfall
accumulations are likely across the southern Plains into the Ohio
Valley through next week, which should help dampen very dry fuels
across these regions. Approaching cooler temperatures or meaningful
rainfall accumulations over much of the CONUS suggests that
quiescent fire weather conditions should prevail for this upcoming
week. Locally dry and breezy conditions may occur over portions of
the Interior West or High Plains, but such conditions appear too
localized to warrant critical probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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