Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
654 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 13 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024

***Bering Sea storm could gusty winds and increased snow to
Southwest Alaska later next week***

...Overview...

A generally cold and mainly dry weather pattern can be expected
for most of the Interior and to the Arctic Coast as a large scale
synoptic trough will likely be in place across the state. The main
storm track will generally be near the Aleutians and southern
Bering Sea, and also the northern Gulf by later in the forecast
period. Coastal rain and mountain snow is looking more likely
toward the end of next week and into next weekend with onshore
flow associated with the incoming Gulf low pressure system late in
the period.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Models continue to show good agreement through the middle of next
week, but model spread increases to end the week and into next
weekend with plenty of differences with placement of lows crossing
the Bering and North Pacific. The most significant uncertainty
continues to surround the strong Bering Sea storm system and it's
evolution over Alaska late next week, and potential triple point
low evolution over the Gulf.  Deterministic model guidance from
the GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET made up a majority of the WPC forecast
blend Wednesday when there is still good agreement, then ensemble
means from the GEFS and ECENS accounted for up to half of the
forecast blend through the weekend.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The low passing south of the state early/mid next week should be
far enough south that impacts to Alaska will be minimal. There may
only be some gusty winds and light precipitation in the far
southern portions of Southeast Alaska. After this system passes,
the focus will shift to the Bering Sea as another storm system
approaches. Hazardous weather potential will focus over portions
of Southwest/Western Alaska on Thursday, especially in areas
susceptible to coastal impacts, depending on how strong the system
becomes.  The system will push east on Friday and Saturday, and
winds should decrease as the system moves farther inland. Models
have been showing a triple point low forming and focusing moisture
over South-central and Southeast Alaska, which could result in
some heavier precipitation in these regions, especially along the
coastal terrain. Arctic high pressure north of the state will
usher in winter-like temperatures next week, with highs struggling
to get above zero for many areas across the northern and eastern
Interior, and extending north across the Brooks Range. 
Temperatures may start to moderate back towards normal later next
week as a more moist Pacific air mass moves into the region.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html