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338Canada Quebec | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections
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Quebec

Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!


338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!


Latest Quebec Polls

Mainstreet
2025-06-22
16
29
8
31
14
Léger
2025-06-21
17
28
9
30
14
Pallas Data
2025-06-15
15
26
12
31
14
Léger
2025-05-10
20
21
10
33
13
Léger
2025-03-09
24
19
12
30
12
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338Canada Projection | Quebec


Latest update: August 13, 2025

Popular vote projection 32% ± 4%▲ PQ 26% ± 3%▼ LIB 17% ± 2% CAQ 14% ± 2%▲ CPQ 10% ± 2% QS Popular vote projection | August 13, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 72▲ [61-75] PQ 39▼ [36-46] LIB 8▼ [5-12] CPQ 6 [3-8] QS 0 [0-5] CAQ 338Canada Quebec | August 13, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.


50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS Odds of winning | August 13, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 86%▲ PQ majority 14%▼ PQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority Odds of outcome | August 13, 2025

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

338Canada Quebec | Popular Vote Projection

LIB 26% ± 3% PQ 32% ± 4% CAQ 17% ± 2% QS 10% ± 2% CPQ 14% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 August 13, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 24% QS 16% LIB 15% CPQ 11% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 31% CAQ 24% QS 16% LIB 15% CPQ 12% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 33% CAQ 23% QS 17% LIB 15% CPQ 11% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 34% CAQ 23% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 11% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 32% CAQ 23% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 32% CAQ 24% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 32% CAQ 24% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 11% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 30% CAQ 24% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 12% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 32% CAQ 23% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 13% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 34% CAQ 22% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 35% CAQ 21% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 33% CAQ 22% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 32% CAQ 22% LIB 20% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 32% CAQ 21% LIB 21% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 31% CAQ 23% LIB 20% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 32% CAQ 23% LIB 19% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 33% CAQ 21% LIB 20% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 32% LIB 24% CAQ 18% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 31% LIB 27% CAQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 10% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 32% LIB 26% CAQ 17% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2025-08-13 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader

338Canada Quebec | Seat Projection

LIB 39 [36-46] PQ 72 [61-75] CAQ 0 [0-5] QS 6 [3-8] CPQ 8 [5-12] Seat projection 80 60 40 20 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Majority: 63 seats August 13, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 59 LIB 26 CAQ 20 QS 15 CPQ 5 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 53 LIB 27 CAQ 22 QS 15 CPQ 8 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 69 LIB 26 QS 14 CAQ 11 CPQ 5 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 66 LIB 30 CAQ 15 QS 9 CPQ 5 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 59 LIB 31 CAQ 22 QS 9 CPQ 4 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 55 LIB 29 CAQ 26 QS 10 CPQ 5 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 61 LIB 29 CAQ 19 QS 10 CPQ 6 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 54 LIB 29 CAQ 27 QS 9 CPQ 6 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 63 LIB 29 CAQ 18 QS 9 CPQ 6 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ 73 LIB 31 QS 8 CAQ 7 CPQ 6 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ 75 LIB 31 QS 8 CPQ 6 CAQ 5 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ 70 LIB 31 CAQ 9 QS 8 CPQ 7 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ 64 LIB 34 CAQ 12 CPQ 9 QS 6 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ 68 LIB 36 CPQ 9 CAQ 6 QS 6 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 61 LIB 34 CAQ 15 CPQ 9 QS 6 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ 65 LIB 31 CAQ 14 CPQ 9 QS 6 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ 74 LIB 33 CPQ 8 QS 6 CAQ 4 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ 71 LIB 39 CPQ 8 QS 7 CAQ 0 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ 69 LIB 41 CPQ 9 QS 6 CAQ 0 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ 72 LIB 39 CPQ 8 QS 6 CAQ 0 2025-08-13 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader

338Canada Quebec | Odds of Winning the Most Seats

PLQ <1% PQ >99% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 PLQ PQ Tie August 13, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ 92% Tie 1% PLQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 95% Tie 1% PLQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 98% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 94% Tie 1% PLQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 98% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ 89% Tie 1% PLQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ 99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ >99% PLQ <1% Tie <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ 99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ >99% PLQ <1% Tie <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ >99% Tie <1% PLQ <1% 2025-08-13 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader

338Canada Quebec | Odds of Election Outcome

PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB majority LIB plurality PQ majority PQ plurality CAQ majority CAQ plurality August 13, 2025 2024-02-18 PQ plurality 48% PQ majority 44% CAQ plurality 7% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ plurality 73% PQ majority 21% CAQ plurality 5% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ majority 63% PQ plurality 37% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ majority 58% PQ plurality 42% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ plurality 54% PQ majority 44% CAQ plurality 1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ plurality 64% PQ majority 30% CAQ plurality 5% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ plurality 57% PQ majority 41% CAQ plurality 2% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 PQ plurality 63% PQ majority 26% CAQ plurality 10% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 PQ plurality 51% PQ majority 48% CAQ plurality 1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 PQ majority 96% PQ plurality 4% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 PQ majority 75% PQ plurality 25% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 PQ majority 59% PQ plurality 41% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 PQ majority 62% PQ plurality 38% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 PQ plurality 63% PQ majority 36% CAQ plurality <1% LIB plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 PQ plurality 54% PQ majority 46% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 PQ majority 76% PQ plurality 24% LIB plurality <1% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 PQ majority 86% PQ plurality 14% CAQ plurality <1% CAQ majority <1% LIB plurality <1% LIB majority <1% 2025-08-13 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader








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