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Expires:No;;872506 AXPZ20 KNHC 192040 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Sep 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 86W. It extends southward across central Honduras, western Nicaragua to just west of northern Costa Rica and reaches to the eastern Pacific near 05N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 06N to 09N and within 120 nm west of the wave from 08N to 10N. A tropical wave has its axis along 101W from 04N to 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 10N to 14N, and within 120 nm east of the wave from 10N to 14N. A tropical wave has its axis along 119W from 04N to 20N moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm west of the wave from 09N to 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 11N86W to 12N102W to 10N119W to 09N125W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 10N to 14N between 91W and 97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N between 77W and 83W, within 60 nm of the trough between 123W and 126W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 126W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the trough west of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region through 27N130W to offshore of southwestern Mexico near 21N108W. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are over the offshore waters of Oaxaca. Gentle northwest to north winds are south and southwest of Baja California, including the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands and east-southeastward from there to the coasts of Jalisco and Michoacan, Mexico. Seas are generally 4 to 5 ft in moderate period northwest swell. Light to gentle southwest to west winds are over the remaining waters eastward to Tehuantepec. Seas south of 20N are to 4 to 5 ft in long-period southwest swell east of 105W, and in long-period northwest swell west of 105W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms moving westward are over the offshore waters of Oaxaca. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are over the northern and central portions of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds are over the southern part of the Gulf, except for gentle to southwest to west winds north of 25N. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California, except 3 to 4 ft in southwest swell over the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, the present Pacific ridge will remain in place and fluctuate into the upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds over the Baja California offshore waters will increase to fresh speeds Fri evening and continue through late Sat night, then diminish to gentle to moderate speeds afterward into early next week. Variable winds less than 15 kt are expected across the Gulf of California, except for pulses of moderate west gap winds across southern portions and fresh southwest gap winds north of 30N each evening and night through Fri. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system thereafter as it slowly moves generally northward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, along about 10N-11N. North of the monsoon trough, moderate or weaker winds are observed. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest swell, except to 6 ft south through west of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the majority of the offshore waters of Costa Rica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the offshore waters of northern Panama. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough will change little through Sun night, then increase to fresh to strong speeds Mon through Tue night. Seas will build during this time in a mix of southwest swell and westerly wind swell. North of 11N, moderate or weaker winds are expected through this evening before the monsoon trough begins to lift northward, and winds shift to westerly and gradually increase to gentle to moderate by Sat. The monsoonal flow is expected to become very active, and dominate the region Fri into early next week. This pattern will generate increasing westerly wind waves moving into the area waters. Periods of very active weather are also expected across area waters north of 06N through the weekend and possibly into next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extending from a 1028 mb high that is centered well northwest of the area near 39N156W extends east- southeastward through 27N130W to offshore of SW Mexico near 17N108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough to the south is resulting in moderate northeast trade winds south of about 24N and west of 130W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in mixed northeast and southeast swell south of 25N west of 125W, 5 to 8 ft in long-period southeast swell south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 10N between 90W and 120W, and 4 to 6 ft in long-period southerly swell elsewhere as noted in recent altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, little overall change is expected over the open Pacific waters west of 120W for the next several days as the aforementioned ridge dominates the region. A dissipating frontal trough extends from southeastern California southwestward to far northern Baja California and to near 30N120W. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate light to gentle northwest winds near the trough. Southwest to west monsoonal winds will continue to become well established through the weekend as the monsoon trough lifts very slowly northward. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds, with small areas of locally strong winds near active thunderstorms will generally develop from 05N to 12N and east of 120W through the weekend. Seas within this wind regime will build to around 7 to 10 ft east of 120W during that time. $$ Aguirre |