Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 20 2024 - 00Z Sun Sep 22 2024

...Severe thunderstorm potential from the Upper Mississippi Valley into
the Lower Missouri Valley and eastern portions of the Central to Southern
Plains...

...Much above average temperatures across the Plains, Mid to Upper
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...

...Rainy weather on tap for southeast New England...

...A developing heavy rain event this weekend from the Central to Southern
Rockies into the Central Plains...

Thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop late this afternoon into
Thursday night/early Friday morning ahead of a frontal boundary stretching
from the Upper Mississippi Valley, southwestward into the Southern Plains.
 The thunderstorms along and ahead of this front may become severe with
large hail and high winds the greatest threat, with tornadoes a lesser
threat. This front will be fairly quick moving to the east and southeast,
which will be a detriment to very heavy rainfall amounts.  However, there
is still the potential for isolated heavy totals, that could result in
localized flooding, especially over urbanized regions.

There will not be much temperature relief in the wake of this front from
the much above average temperatures currently stretching across the Plains
into the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.  These regions
will continue to see some late summer heat over the next two days before a
stronger cold front pushes across the Northern to Central Plains into the
Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday and begins to push cooler air
eastward from the Northern Plains.

There is not expected to be large areas of heavy rains across the lower 48
over the next two days.  Exceptions will be across southeastern New
England where a slow moving low off the southeast New England coast will
keep conditions wet Friday and Saturday.  Showery weather also likely to
persist across South Florida where tropical moisture will bring the
potential for localized heavy rains and isolated urban flash flooding from
daily thunderstorms.

A strong mid to upper level low off the central to southern California
coast Thursday afternoon will be pressing eastward Friday and Saturday
across the Southwest and into the Four Corners region.  There is not
expected to be any large areas of precipiation associated with this strong
mid to upper level low across central to southern California into the
Southwest from Thursday evening into early Saturday.  However, during
Saturday as this system moves into the Four Corners region, higher levels
of moisture are expected to be transported northward ahead of the mid to
upper level low into the Central to Southern Rockies and Southern High
Plains.  This will be the beginning of an increasingly large precipitation
event, initially across the Central to Southern Rockies on Saturday, but
expanding eastward Saturday evening/night into the Central Plains and
Lower Missouri Valley.

Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php