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A Measles Epidemic Threshold in a Highly Vaccinated Population

Figure 2

Observed Measles Outbreaks in the Netherlands, from 1 September 1976 to 31 August 2004

(A) The fraction of individuals susceptible to measles on 1 September of each year.

(B) Infection attack rate of measles during each epidemic year from 1 September to 31 August.

(C) Relation between fraction of susceptible individuals and attack rate.

Dark blue markers correspond to major outbreaks; light blue markers correspond to minor outbreaks. Solid gray lines indicate the maximum likelihood values for infection attack rate; broken gray lines indicate the likelihood support region. The dotted yellow line in (A) and (C) indicates the threshold value for susceptible individuals below which solid herd immunity is achieved.

Figure 2

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020316.g002

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