Scribd
Upload
25 views3 pages

DM Modified Solution Quiz2

This document contains a multi-part analysis of scenarios with predicted and actual outcomes. It evaluates the expected payoffs of two options, "Inhouse" and "Bought", under different predictions and actual outcomes. It calculates posterior probabilities, expected payoffs, and the expected value of perfect and sample information.

Uploaded by

Hemanshu Das
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
25 views3 pages

DM Modified Solution Quiz2

This document contains a multi-part analysis of scenarios with predicted and actual outcomes. It evaluates the expected payoffs of two options, "Inhouse" and "Bought", under different predictions and actual outcomes. It calculates posterior probabilities, expected payoffs, and the expected value of perfect and sample information.

Uploaded by

Hemanshu Das
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 3

High

Predicted Medium
Low

Actual scenario
High
Medium
Low
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.8

High
Predicted Medium
Low
Prior

Actual scenario
High
Medium
Low
0.16
0.12
0.12
0.04
0.12
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.32
0.24
0.28
0.48

Expected payoffs
Inhouse
52
Bought
33.6
With perfect info
High

(Part b)

High
0.4
0.2
0.4

Inhouse
Bought

500
200

(Part a)

In-house

Medium Low
(Part c)
500
120
-100

with payoff

EVPI

Survey predicts
Medium
Posterior prob.
0.2
0.6
0.2
Expected payoffs
Inhouse
120
(Part d)
In-house with payoff
Bought
92
Expected payoffs
Survey says High
Medium Low
Inhouse
170
120
-100 (Part e)
Bought
86
92
-48
Best
170
120
-48
Probability
0.4
0.2
0.4

EVSI

52

53.6

120

20.8

Confidential report

Predicted

Success
Failure

Actual
Success
Failure
0.416
0.144
0.104
0.336
0.52
0.48

Expected payoffs
Inhouse
-85.4545
Bought
-39.2727

Posterior
probabilities
0.56
0.44

(Part f)

Predicted

Buy

with payoff

Success
Failure

-39.2727

Actual
Success
0.742857
0.236364

Predicted

Success
Failure

Actual
Success
Failure
0.742857 0.257143
0.236364 0.763636
0.56
0.44
(Part g)

Expected payoffs
Success
Failure
Inhouse
160 -85.4545
Bought
90.8571429 -39.2727
Best
160 -39.2727
EVSI
20.32

Medium Low
100
-200
120
-100

Actual
Failure
0.257143
0.763636

Payoffs
Inhouse
Bought

Success
Failure
284.6154
-200
156.9231
-100

You might also like

pFad - Phonifier reborn

Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


Alternative Proxies:

Alternative Proxy

pFad Proxy

pFad v3 Proxy

pFad v4 Proxy