4

Probability
This chapter will show you how to
} construct sample space diagrams when considering compound
outcomes
} draw Venn and tree diagrams to help work out probabilities in
more complex contexts
} work with conditional probabilities.

Before you start

You should know how to:

Check in

1 Work with fractions.

1 Calculate

e.g. Calculate

7
+ 1 = 7 + 4 = 11
12 3
12
12

11
1 1
=
= 1
6 2
6 2 12

1 1

6 2

2 Identify the basic outcomes of a simple

experiment.

a 12
4

b 1+2
4

S1

7
+1
12 3

2 List the possible outcomes when a coin

is tossed twice.

e.g. How many different pairs of letters can be

made from the word DICE?
DI DC DE
IC IE
CE

57

4.1

Basic concepts and language of probability

A probability experiment has outcomes which occur at

random.
Imagine an experiment where you roll a die 500 times, and you
see 74 fives.
The relative frequency or experimental probability of throwing
a five in the experiment is
74 = 0.148
500

However, if the die is fair the theoretical probability of throwing

a five is
1 = 0.166 . . .
6

S1

Because the outcomes are random, the number of times any

particular score appears in an experiment will vary considerably.
The more times you repeat an experiment, the closer the
estimated probability is likely to be to the theoretical
probability.
An event is a set of possible outcomes from an experiment.
So if you throw a die some events could be:
A is the event that a five appears.
B is the event that an even number appears.
C is the event that an odd number appears.
A B is the union of events A and B.
This means A or B or both can happen.
2, 4, 5, 6 are the outcomes which satisfy A B.
A C is the intersection of events A and C.
This means both A and C have to happen.
Only the outcome 5 satisfies A C.
A means the event A does not happen.
This is the complementary event, and P(A) = 1 P(A).
1, 2, 3, 4, 6 are the outcomes which satisfy A.

58

Out of 500 throws, anything from

65 to 105 fives would not be
especially unusual.
You can use a Venn diagram to
illustrate events. There is more
information about Venn diagrams
on page 62.

1
3
A 5

A is inside C

4
6

4 Probability

Exercise 4.1
1 A letter is chosen at random from the word CAMBRIDGE.
The events A, B, C and D are defined as:
A: A vowel is chosen.
B: The letter B is chosen.
C: A letter in the first half of the alphabet is chosen.
D: A letter is chosen which has only one letter beside it.
a Describe the event A in words.

b For each event A, B, C and D write

down the outcomes which satisfy it.

c Give the probability of each

event A, B, C, D.

d List the outcomes which

satisfy A C.

e Write down P(A C).

Find P(A D).

g Find P(A B).

Activity
2 a Throw a coin 20 times and count the number of times
it shows a head.

S1

b Throw the coin another 20 times and count the

number of times it shows a head.
c How many times would you expect to see a head in
20 throws?
d Does this happen in both sets of 20 coin throws?
e If you have access to a number of other peoples results
as well, how often do you see the expected number of
heads?
f

How many heads (out of 20 throws) are most

commonly seen?

3 a Throw a die 30 times and count the number of times

it shows a five.
b How many times would you expect to see a five
in 30 throws?
c Throw the die another 20 times and count the number
of times it shows a five.
d How many times would you expect to see a five
in 20 throws?
e If you have access to a number of other peoples results as
well, how often do you see the expected number of fives:
i in 30 throws?
ii in 20 throws?
f How many fives (out of 20 throws) are most
commonly seen?
59

4.2

Two events

In contexts where two things happen it is often helpful to

construct a table showing the possible outcomes. This is
sometimes called a possibility space diagram or a sample
space diagram.

S1

Two dice are thrown, and the sum of the scores on the two dice is
taken. You can represent this in a two-way table:
Sum

10

10

11

10

11

12

You can use the table to work out the probability of getting a sum of 5.
P{Sum = 5} = 4

36

Two dice are thrown, and this time the higher of the scores on the
two dice is taken:
High

You can use this table to work out the probability of the higher
score being 5.
60

P{High = 5} = 9

36

4 Probability

Exercise 4.2
1 The numbers 1 to 6 are on cards. Two cards are
taken at random.
Copy and complete the sample space diagram
to show the sum of the numbers on the cards.

Sum 1
1

Find the probability that the total score is:

a 5

b 4

c 2

4
5
6

2 A coin is tossed and a die is thrown.

a List all the possible outcomes in the sample space.
A head scores 1 and a tail scores 2.

In questions 25 assume that the

dice are fair and six-sided.

b Construct a sample space diagram to show the total score

for this experiment.
3 Two dice are thrown.

S1

a Construct a sample space diagram to show the product of

the scores on the two dice.
b Find the probability that the product of scores is:
i 3
ii 5
iii 6
iv 10
4 Two dice are thrown.
a Construct a sample space diagram to show the lower of the
scores on the two dice.
b Find the probability that the lower score is:
i 3
ii 5
iii 6
5 Two dice are thrown.
a Copy and complete the sample space diagram to show the
difference between the scores on the two dice (the unsigned
difference).
b Find the probability that the difference between the
scores is:
i 3
ii 5
iii 6

Difference

61

4.3

Venn diagrams

A Venn diagram can be a helpful way to visualise the

relationship between events.

The diagram shows each event as a circle within a rectangle.

EXAMPLE 1

A school has 97 students in Year 12; 55 students take AS

Maths and 32 take AS Chemistry; 31 students take neither
AS Maths nor AS Chemistry. How many students take both?

The diagram shows a, b, c and d as the numbers of students

in each of those regions.
Chemistry Given:
a + b + c + d = 97
b

a + b = 55

S1

b + c = 32
Maths

d = 31

(a + b) + (b + c) + d = 55 + 32 + 31 = 118 [= a + 2b + c + d]
a + b + c + d = 97, so b must be 21. Then a = 24 and c = 11.
21 students take both AS Maths and AS Chemistry.
The events in the previous example can be represented in terms
of probabilities. If you do so, you can see an interesting result.
P(M) = a + b

P(C) = b + c

P(M C) = b
Chemistry

Chemistry

Maths

Maths

P(M C) = a + b + c
Chemistry

a
Maths

62

c
d

Chemistry

c
d

a
Maths

c
d

4 Probability

This leads to a general result for two events:

Addition rule: P(X Y ) = P(X ) + P(Y ) P(X Y )
In the special case where P(X Y) = 0 (X and Y are mutually
exclusive), the probability of X or Y happening is just the sum
of the probabilities of X and of Y.
Y

EXAMPLE 2

For two events A and B,

P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.4, P(A B) = 0.3
Find
P(A B)

ii P(A B)

iii P(A B)

iv P(A B)

S1

Draw a Venn diagram and label the four regions:

A

B
x

0.3

(A B) = 0.3 so x = 0.4 from P(A) and y = 0.1 from P(B).

0.3 + 0.4 + 0.1 = 0.8
so z = 0.2
A

B
0.4

0.3

0.1

0.2

63

4 Probability
EXAMPLE 2 (CONT)

Now find the required probabilities:

P(A B) = 0.8

ii P(A B) = 0.2

B
0.4

0.3

0.1

B
0.4

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.2

iii P(A B) = 0.1

iv P(A B) = 0.6

B
0.4

0.3

B
0.4

0.1

0.3

0.2

S1

0.2

You sometimes need to extract the necessary information from

the context described.
EXAMPLE 3

Two-thirds of the pupils in a class have a mobile phone.

Half of the pupils have an MP3 player. A quarter of the
pupils have neither.
What proportion of the class have both?

A = Phone

B = MP3

c
d

(a + b) + (b + c) + d = 2 + 1 + 1 = 17
3 2
5
so b = P(A B) =
12
5
so of the class have both.
12

64

0.1

12

4 Probability

Venn diagrams will not do the

general case for four events special cases can be drawn, but
you are not going to meet them at
this level.

Three events can be shown as three intersecting circles, giving

eight possible regions.

EXAMPLE 4

P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.5, P(C) = 0.3, P(A B) = 0.3

P(A C) = 0.1, P(A B C) = 0.1, P(A B C ) = 0.1
Draw and complete a Venn diagram for the three events
A, B and C.

A good start is to draw blank

circles, and then allocate letters to
each region.

B
b
a

c
e
d

f
h

g
C

A
0.3

0.1
0

S1

Given h = 0.1, e = 0.1

b + e = 0.3, so b = 0.2
d + e = 0.1, so d = 0
a + b + d + e = 0.6, so a = 0.3

B
0.2

0.1

g
C

0.2 + 0.1 + c + f = 0.5,

so c + f = 0.2
0.1 + f + g = 0.3
c + f + g + 0.7 = 1
so g = 0.1
and f = 0.1, c = 0.1

B
0.2

0.3

0.1

0.1
0.1

0.1

0.1
C

Exercise 4.3
1 For each of the following, draw a copy of the diagram below
and shade in the area representing the set.
A

a AB

b AB

c A B

d A B

e A B

65

4 Probability

2 For each of the following, draw a copy of the diagram below

and shade in the area representing the set.
A

a AC

b (A B) C

c A B C

3 There are 80 boys in Year 10; 26 boys played for the rugby team
and 17 played for the cricket team. If 12 boys played for both
teams, how many played for neither?

S1

4 Once cars are three years old they have to have an annual
roadworthiness test called the MOT. 86% of cars at a centre pass
the MOT. 9% of the cars are found to have faulty brakes, and
11% have a fault not related to brakes, which means they fail.
a What proportion of cars fail only on their brakes?
b What proportion fail, but had good brakes?
5 P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.5, P(A B) = 0.8
Calculate
a P(A B)

b P(A B)

c P(A B)

6 P(A) = 0.7, P(A B) = 0.5, P(A B) = 0.8

Calculate
a P(B)

b P(A B)

c P(A B)

7 P(A) = 2 , P(B) = 1 , P(A B) = 3

3

Calculate
a P(A B)

b P(A B)

8 P(A) = 1 , P(A B) = 1 ,
2

c P(A B)

P(A B) = 3
4

Calculate
a P(B)
66

b P(A B)

c P(A B)

d A B C

4 Probability

9 P(A) = 0.6, P(A B) = 0.4, P(A B) = 0.1

Calculate
a P(B)

b P(A B)

c P(A B)

10 A survey of a primary school class found that one-third of

the pupils had a pet dog, a quarter had a pet hamster and
one-sixth of the class had both.
A child is chosen at random from the class.
What is the probability that the child has:
a at least one of a pet dog or hamster?
b a pet dog but not a hamster?
11 P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.5, P(C) = 0.2
P(A B)= 0.2, P(B C) = 0, P(A B C) = 0.1
Calculate
a P(A C)
b P(A B C )

S1

12 A Year 12 group has 112 pupils; 42 take French, 65 take

Maths and 32 take Physics. Everyone who takes Physics also
takes Maths, but no one takes all three subjects. 12 pupils
take Maths and French. How many pupils in the group take
none of Maths, French and Physics?
13 A lecturer does an informal survey of his first-year
undergraduate politics students. Half the students claim to
read the Daily Telegraph, half claim to read The Times and half
claim to read the Guardian; 1 say they read none of these.
12

No one claims to read all three papers; 1 claim to read both

6
the Daily Telegraph and The Times, and 1 claim to read both
6

the Daily Telegraph and the Guardian.

a How many claim to read both The Times and
the Guardian?
b How many claim to read only the Guardian?
c How many claim to read only the Daily Telegraph?

67

4.4

Tree diagrams

Sampling without replacement

Consider a bag which has three red and five blue beads in it.
If you take a bead out at random, and then take out another
without replacing the first, you can represent the possible
outcomes in a probability tree diagram.
Red
Red
Blue
Red
Blue

S1

Blue

You can put probabilities on the branches to complete

the diagram.
2
7
3
8

5
8

Red

6
56

Red
5
7

Blue

15
56

3
7

Red

15
56

4
7

Blue

20
56

3 5 15
=
8 7
56

The bag now has two red and

five blue beads.

The bag now has three red and

four blue beads.

Blue

You can now scan along the branches to identify any possible
outcome. For example,
P (both beads the same colour) = P (both red) + P (both blue)

( ) (

= 32 + 54
8 7
8 7
= 6 + 20
56 56
= 26
56
13
=
28
68

Think for and, + for or:

red and red or blue and blue
= red red + blue blue

4 Probability

Sampling with replacement

If the first bead was returned to the bag before
the second one was selected, the probabilities
of red or blue would still be 3 and 5 at the second stage:
8

Now, P(both beads the same colour) = P (both red) + P (both blue)
= 9 + 25
64 64
= 34
64
17
=
32

5
8

EXAMPLE 1

how many would you expect to have the disease and test
positive?

how many would you expect to test positive?

9
64

5
8

Blue

15
64

3
8

Red

15
64

5
8

Blue

25
64

Blue

A screening test will usually

detect the presence of bodies
which are almost always
present with the disease, but
which also occur naturally in a
small proportion of people.

S1

Red

Red

3
8

A disease is known to affect 1 in 10 000 people. It can be fatal,

but it is treatable if it is detected early.
A screening test for the disease shows a positive result for
99% of people with the disease.
The test shows positive for 1% of people who do not have
the disease.
For a population of 1 million people:

3
8

First draw a tree diagram:

99%

1 in 10 000

100
disease

1%

1 000 000
people
the rest

99 disease and
positive

1 disease and
negative

1%

9999 healthy and

positive

99%

989 901 healthy and

negative

999 900
healthy

So there are likely to be about 99 positive tests from people

with the disease, and about 99 + 9999 = 10 098 positive
tests altogether.
69

4 Probability

More complex tree diagrams

EXAMPLE 2

There are four red, three green and five blue discs in a bag.
Find the probability that two discs drawn without
replacement are the same colour.

First draw a tree diagram there are three outcomes at

each stage.
Red

12
132

Green

12
132

5
11

Blue

20
132

4
11

Red

12
132

2
11

Green

6
132

5
11

Blue

15
132

Red

20
132

Green

15
132

Blue

20
132

3
11
3
11

It is much easier to keep all the

denominators the same in each
stage.

Red

4
12

3
12

S1

Green

5
12
4
11
3
11

Blue

4
11

P(same colour) = 12 + 6 + 20 = 38 = 19
132

132

132

132

66

You can use a tree diagram with more than two stages. However,
in practice the diagram becomes difficult to work with, and you
will not be required to deal with difficult cases.

70

A neat, clear structure to your

diagrams is essential.

4 Probability
EXAMPLE 3

A bag has three red beads and five blue beads.

A bead is taken from the bag, its colour is noted, and it is
returned to the bag. This is done three times. Find the
probability that all three beads are the same colour.

Find draw a tree diagram.

3
8

Red

27
RRR
512

5
8

Blue

45
RRB
512

3
8

Red

45
RBR
512

5
8

Blue

75
RBB
512

3
8

Red

45
BRR
512

5
8

Blue

75
BRB
512

3
8

Red

75
BBR
512

5
8

Blue

125
BBB
512

Red
3
8

It helps to summarize the

outcomes at the ends of the
branches eg RRR, RRB.

Red

5
8

3
8

Blue

S1

Red

5
8

3
8

Blue

5
8

Blue

From the tree diagram,

P(3 beads the same colour) = 27 + 125
512

512

= 152
512
= 19
64

71

4 Probability

Exercise 4.4
1 A bag contains five blue and three green balls. A ball is chosen
at random, its colour noted, and the ball returned to the bag.
A second ball is chosen.
a Find the probability that the two balls are different
colours.
b If the first ball is not returned to the bag before the second
ball is chosen, what is the probability the balls are different
colours?
2 At a gym, 60% of the members are men. One-third of the men
use the gym at least once a week. Three-quarters of the women
use the gym at least once a week.
A member is chosen at random. Find the probability that
a it is a man who does not use the gym at least once a week

S1

b it is a person who uses the gym at least once a week.

3 In a certain town, the probability that a persons car is stolen
during a year is 0.06. The probability that a person is assaulted
is 0.03.
Assuming these events are independent, draw a tree diagram
to represent this information.
Find the probability that a randomly selected person in
the town
a is not the victim of either of these crimes during the year
b is the victim of exactly one of these crimes during the year
c is the victim of both of these crimes during the year
4 A coin is thrown three times. Find the probability that
a it shows heads on all three throws
b it shows the same face on all three throws
c it does not land the same way on two successive throws.

72

4 Probability

5 Bag A contains five blue and three green balls. A ball is chosen
at random, the colour is noted and it is not returned to the
bag. A second ball is chosen.
a Find the probability that the two balls are the same colour.
Bag B contains 50 blue and 30 green balls. Again, a ball is
chosen at random, the colour is noted and it is not returned to
the bag before a second ball is chosen.
b Find the probability that the two balls are the same
colour.
6 A bag contains four blue, four red and four green balls. Two
balls are removed at random, one at a time, and without
replacement. Find the probability that:
a the second ball drawn is a red
b both balls are blue
c neither ball is green
d at least one ball is green.

S1

7 A bag contains ten counters: four white, three green and three
red. Counters are removed at random, one at a time, and
without replacement. Find the probability that:
a the first counter is red
b the first three counters are all white
c the first three counters are all different colours.

73

4.5

Conditional probability

In the previous section you considered a screening test for a rare

disease. Even though the test was remarkably accurate, less
than one in 100 of the positive results come from someone with
the disease.
Of 10 098(99 + 9999) positive results 9999 were from healthy
people, so the conditional probability that somebody is healthy
given that they have a positive result is

P(Healthy positive test result) = 9999 = 0.9902

In situations like this it is

important that the patient is not
told that they have the disease on
the basis of a positive result from
a screening test.

10098

EXAMPLE 1

S1

The conditional probability of an event A occurring given that

an event B has already occurred can be written as P(A B).

A GP practice encourages elderly people to have a flu

vaccination each year. The doctors say that the vaccination
reduces the likelihood of having flu from 40% to 10%.
If 45% of the elderly people in the practice have the
vaccination, find the probability that an elderly person
chosen at random from the practice:
a gets flu
b had the vaccination, given that they get flu.

0.1

Flu

0.045

Vaccination
0.45

0.9

0.55

0.4

No flu 0.405

Flu

0.22

No vaccination

0.6

No flu 0.33

Note:

a P(F) = 0.045 + 0.22 = 0.265

b P(V | F ) = P(V F) = 0.045 = 0.170 (3 s.f.)
P(F)

74

0.265

P (V |F ) =
not

P (V F )
P (F )

P (V )
P (F )

4 Probability

Venn diagrams can be useful when looking at conditional

probability. Consider two events A and B, with the probabilities
shown in the Venn diagram.
A

B
0.2

0.3

0.4

0.1

P(A B) is the probability of A given that B has occurred.

So P(A B) = 0.3 = 3
0.7

Generally, for two events A and B

P(A | B) = P(A B)

This is often known as the

multiplication law of probability.

P(B)

Note that generally P(A B) P(B A).

P(B A) 0.3 3
=
=
0.5 5
P( A)

0.3

S1

0.2

In the diagram above

P(B | A) =

B
0.4

0.1

EXAMPLE 2

P(A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.35, P(A B) = 0.9

Find

b P(A B)

a P(A B)

c P(B A)

a P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

so P(A B) = 0.75 + 0.35 0.9 = 0.2
A

B
0.55

0.2

0.15

P(A B) = 0.1 to make

the total probability 1

0.1

then
b P(A | B) = P(A B) = 0.2 = 4
P(B)

0.35

B A
c P(B | A) = P( ) = 0.2 = 4
P( A)

0.25

5
75

4 Probability

Exercise 4.5
1 95% of drivers wear seat belts. 60% of car drivers involved
in serious accidents die if they are not wearing a seat belt,
whereas 80% of those who do wear a seat belt survive.
a Draw a tree diagram to show this information.
b What is the probability that a driver in a serious accident
did not wear a seat belt and survived?
2 At an electrical retailers, one-third of the light bulbs are from
company X, and the rest from Company Y. A report shows that
3% of light bulbs from Company X are faulty, and that 2% from
Company Y are faulty.
a If the retailer chooses a bulb at random from stock
and tests it, what is the probability that it is faulty?

S1

b If the bulb is faulty, what is the probability that it came

from Company Y ?
3 An insurance company classifies drivers in three categories.
X is low risk, and they represent 20% of drivers who are
insured. Y is moderate risk and they represent 70% of the
drivers. Z is high risk.
The probability that a category X driver has one or more
accidents in a 12-month period is 2%, and the corresponding
probabilities for Y and Z are 5% and 9%.
a Find the probability that a motorist, chosen at random, is
assessed as a category Y risk and has one or more accidents
in the year.
b Find the probability that a motorist, chosen at random, has
one or more accidents in the year.
c If a customer has an accident in a 12-month period, what is
the probability that the driver was in category Y ?
4 P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.5, P(A B) = 0.2
a Draw a Venn diagram to represent this information.
b Find

i P(A B)

ii P(B A)

5 P(X) = 0.6, P(X Y) = 0.3, P(X Y) = 0.8

Find

76

a P(Y)

b P(Y X)

c P(X Y)

d P(X Y )

4 Probability

6 In a school there are 542 pupils, 282 of whom are girls.

364 pupils walk to school, of whom 153 are girls. Find the
probability that a pupil chosen at random:
a is a boy
b is a boy who does not walk to school
c does not walk to school given that the pupil is a boy
d is a girl, given that the pupil walks to school.
7 There are 173 pupils in Year 13 in a school. There are 25
prefects in Year 13, of whom 7 are House Captains.
Find the probability that a Year 13 pupil chosen at random:
a is a prefect
b is a House Captain, given that the pupil is a prefect.
8 Of the employees in a large factory one-sixth travel to work by
bus, one-third by train, and the rest by car. Those travelling
by bus have a probability of 1 of being late, those
by train will be late with probability 1 and those by car will be

S1

late with probability 1 .

10
Draw and complete a tree diagram and calculate the probability
that an employee chosen at random will be late.
9 The homework diaries and homework of two pupils are
examined. There is a probability of 0.4 that A does not write
in the given homework correctly. She always does the homework
if she writes it in, but never checks if it is not written in.
There is a probability of 0.8 that B writes in the homework
correctly, and when she does she will do it 90% of the time;
if she has nothing written in then she checks with a friend
who knows the homework 50% of the time.
She does the homework if she is given it by the friend.
Assume that A and B act independently.
Draw a tree diagram representing this information.
a Find the probability that pupil A does her homework on
a particular night.
b Find the probability that both pupils do their homework on
a particular night.
c If a homework was checked and was not done, find the
probability that it was pupil A.
77

4.6

Relationships between events

Independence
Two events A and B are independent if the outcome of A does
not affect the outcome of B, and vice versa.
So P(A B) = P(A)

The probability of A occurring

given that B has already occurred
will just be the probability of A.

A and B are independent.

EXAMPLE 1

A set of 40 cards shows a number from 1 to 10 of one of four

geometrical symbols.
Circles and squares are shown in grey, rectangles and ellipses
are blue.
The pack of cards is shuffled and the top card is turned over.
Let C be the event card shows a circle, F be the event card
shows 5 symbols and G be the event the card is grey.
a Show that C and F are independent events.
b Show that C and G are not independent events.

S1

a P(C) = 10 (there are 10 circle cards)

40
P(F) = 4 (there are 4 cards showing 5 symbols)
10
P(C F) = 1 (there is only one card with 5 circles)
40
1
P(C F) 40 1
=
= = P(C)
P(C F) =
P(F)
4 4
40

Knowing that F has happened has

given no additional information
concerning whether C is likely to
happen or not.

Since P(C F) = P(C), C and F are independent events.

b P(G C) = 1, since if you know the card has circles then
you know it is grey
P(G) = 0.5
So P(G C) P(G), and the events G and C are not
independent.
You can test for independence by comparing P(X Y) with P(X),
or equivalently you compare P(X Y) with P(X ) P(Y ).
B

Mutually exclusive events

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they cannot
occur at the same time.
78

For mutually exclusive events, P(A B) = P(A) + P(B).

The general relationship is:

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

4 Probability

Exhaustive events
A set of events is exhaustive if it covers all possible outcomes.
EXAMPLE 2

Two fair dice are thrown. From the events which are listed
below, give two which are:
a mutually exclusive
b exhaustive
c not independent.
A:
B:
C:
D:
E:
F:

The two dice show the same number.

The sum of the two scores is at least 5.
At least one of the two numbers is a 5 or a 6.
The sum of the two scores is odd.
The largest number shown is a 6.
The sum of the two scores is less than 8.

S1

a A and D are mutually exclusive because if the two dice

show the same number, the sum has to be an even
number.
b B and F are exhaustive because the only outcomes not in B
are that the sum is 2, 3 or 4 and these are all in F.
c A and D are not independent (because they are mutually
exclusive)
C and E are not independent since P(C E) = 1
(if E happens, then you know C must happen).

There are other possibilities

for part c.

Here are some other terms that can be helpful.

Partition: a group of sets which are exhaustive and mutually
exclusive form a partition. The whole outcome space has been
split into disjoint events, so their probabilities total 1, and there
is no overlap between any pair.
Compound events can be evaluated simply by going through
the group, and seeing whether each set is to be included.

You will not be assessed on

knowledge of the term partition.

Complementary event: this is a two-event partition. If A and B

are complementary then P(B) = 1 - P(A). The simplest way of
identifying a complementary pair is A and not A(A).

79

4 Probability
EXAMPLE 3

Over the course of a season, a hockey team play 40 matches,

in different conditions, with the following results.
This is a two-way table.

Weather

Result

Good

Bad

Total

Win

13

19

Draw

Lose

13

Total

25

15

40

For a match chosen at random from the season:

G is the event Good weather
W is the event Team wins
D is the event Team draws
L is the event Team loses.

S1

a Find the probabilities:

i P(G)
ii P(G D)
iii P(D G)
b Are the events D and G independent?

a i There are 25 good weather matches out of the 40 so

P(G) = 25 = 5
40

ii G D is a draw in good weather, and there are five of

those so P(G D) = 5 = 1
40

1
P (G D ) 8 1
= =
iii P(D G) =
5 5
P(G)
8

b P(D) = 8 = 1 , so since P(D G) = P(D) the events D and

40

G are independent.

Exercise 4.6
1 A and B are independent events. P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.4.
Find:
a P(A B)
b P(A B)
c P(A B)
2 P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.4, P(A B) = 0.82.
Show that A and B are independent.
3 P(A) = 0.5, P(B A) = 0.6, P(B ) = 0.7
Show that A and B are mutually exclusive.
80

4 Probability

4 X and Y are independent events with P(X) = 0.4 and P(Y) = 0.5.
a Write down P(X Y).
b Write down P(Y X).
c Calculate P(X Y).
5 The results of a traffic survey of the colour and type of car are
given in the following table:
Saloon

Hatchback

Silver

65

59

Black

27

22

Other

16

19

One car is selected from the group at random. Find the

probability that the selected car is:
i

a silver hatchback

ii

a hatchback

iii a hatchback, given that it is silver.

S1

Show that the type of car is not independent of its colour.

6 Consider the following possible events when a blue and
a white die are rolled:
A: the total is 2
C: the total is < 10
E: the total is > 7

B: the white is a multiple of 2

D: the white is a multiple of 3
F: the total is > 9

Which of the following pairs are exhaustive and which are

mutually exclusive?
a A, B

b A, D

c C, E

d C, F

e B, D

f A, E

7 Four unbiased coins are tossed together. For the events A to D

below, say whether the statements a to d are true or false, and
give a reason for each answer. (X means NOT X)
A: no heads
C: no tails

B: at least one head

D: at least two tails

a A and B are mutually exclusive

b A and B are exhaustive
c B and D are exhaustive
d A and C are mutually exclusive
81

Review 4
1 A fair die has six faces numbered 1, 2, 2, 3, 3 and 3. The die is
rolled twice and the number showing on the uppermost face is
recorded each time.
Find the probability that the sum of the two numbers recorded
is at least 5.
2 A bag contains eight purple balls and two pink balls. A ball is
selected at random from the bag and its colour is recorded.
The ball is not replaced. A second ball is selected at random
and its colour is recorded.
a

Draw a tree diagram to represent the information.

S1

Find the probability that

b

the second ball selected is purple

both balls selected are purple, given that the second ball
selected is purple.

3 For the events A and B,

P(A ) = 0.5, P(A B) = 0.27 and P(A B) = 0.53.
a

Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the complete sample

space for the events A and B.

Write down the value of P(B).

Find P(B A).

Determine whether or not A and B are independent.

4 The events A and B are such that P(A) = 5 , P(B) = 2 and

12

P(A B) = 1 .
12

Find:
i P(A B)
ii P(A B)
iii P(B A).

State, with a reason, whether or not A and B are:

i mutually exclusive
ii independent.

82

[(c) Edexcel Limited 2004]

4 Probability

5 Two events A and B are mutually exclusive. P(A) = 1, P(B) = 1

2

Find P(A B).

Find P(A B).

Are events A and B independent? You must provide a reason.

6 Walkers disease is a rare tropical disease, which is known to be

present in only 0.1% of the population. A new screening test has
been analysed and shows a 98% probability of showing positive
when the person tested has the disease and only 0.2% of showing
positive when the person does not have the disease. A person is
selected at random from the population and given the screening
test.
What is the probability that the test will show positive?

What is the probability that the person does not have the
disease, given that the test showed positive?

Jane is a doctor who is unhappy with guidelines which

say that patients should be told immediately if the test
shows positive.
Explain how she could use the answer to part b to argue
that these guidelines are not appropriate.

S1

7 A computer-based testing system gives the user a hard question

if they got the previous question correct and an easy question if
they got previous question wrong. The first question is randomly
chosen to be hard or easy.
The probability of Benni getting an easy question right is 2 ,
3

and the probability he gets a hard question right is 1 .

4
a

Draw a tree diagram to represent what can happen in the

first two questions Benni has in a test.

Find the probability that Benni gets his first two questions correct.

Find the probability that the first question was hard, given that
Benni got both of his first two questions correct.

83

4 Probability

8 For the events A and B:

a

explain in words the meaning of the term P(B A),

sketch a Venn diagram to illustrate the relationship P(B A) = 0.

Three companies operate a bus service along a busy main road.

Amber buses run 50% of the service and 2% of their buses are
more than 5 minutes late. Blunder buses run 30% of the service
and 10% of their buses are more than 5 minutes late. Clipper
buses run the remainder of the service and only 1% of their
buses run more than 5 minutes late.
Jean is waiting for a bus on the main road.
c

Find the probability that the first bus to arrive is an Amber

bus that is more than 5 minutes late.

Let A, B and C denote the events that Jean catches an Amber

bus, a Blunder bus and a Clipper bus respectively. Let L denote
the event that Jean catches a bus that is more than 5 minutes late.
Draw a Venn diagram to represent the events A, B, C and L.
Calculate the probabilities associated with each region and
write them in the appropriate places on the Venn diagram.

Find the probability that Jean catches a bus that is more

than 5 minutes late.

S1

9 A car dealer offers purchasers a three-year warranty on

a new car.
He sells two models, the Zippy and the Nifty.
For the first 50 cars sold of each model the number of claims
under the warranty is shown in the table.

[(c) Edexcel Limited 2002]

Claim

No claim

Zippy

35

15

Nifty

40

10

One of the purchasers is chosen at random. Let A be the event

that no claim is made by the purchaser under the warranty
and B the event that the car purchased is a Nifty.
a

Find P(A B).

Find P(A).

Given that the purchaser chosen does not make a claim under
the warranty:

84

find the probability that the car purchased is a Zippy

show that making a claim is not independent of the make

of the car purchased.
Comment on this result.

[(c) Edexcel Limited 2003]

4 Probability

10 In a factory, machines X, Y and Z are all producing metal rods

of the same length. Machine X produces 25% of the rods, machine
Y produces 45% and the rest are produced by machine Z. Of their
production of rods, machines X, Y and Z produce 4%, 5% and 2%
defective rods respectively.
a

Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.

Find the probability that a randomly selected rod is

i produced by machine Y and is not defective
ii is not defective.

Given that a randomly selected rod is not defective, find

the probability that it was produced by machine Y.

11 A golfer enters two tournaments. He estimates the probability

that he wins the first tournament is 0.6, that he wins the second
tournament is 0.4 and that he wins them both is 0.35.
Find the probability that he does not win either
tournament.

Show, by calculation, that winning the first tournament and

winning the second tournament are not independent
events.

The tournaments are played in successive weeks.

Explain why it would be surprising if these were independent
events.

S1

12 The events A and B are independent such that P(A) = 1

2

and P(B) = 1 .
3

Find:
a

P(A B)

P(A B)

P(A B).

85

4 Probability

13 A fair die has six faces numbered 4, 4, 4, 5, 6 and 6. The die is

rolled twice and the number showing on the uppermost face
is recorded each time.
Find the probability that the sum of the two numbers recorded
is at least 10.
14 Events A and B are defined in the sample space S. The events
A and B are independent.
Given that P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4 and P(A B) = 0.65, find:
a

P(B)

P(A B)

A and C are mutually exclusive and P(C) = 0.5.

c

Find P(A C).

15 The events A and B are such that P(A) = 1 , P(B) = 2 and

3

S1

P(A B) = 1 .
4
a

Represent these probabilities in a Venn diagram.

Hence, or otherwise, find

b

P(A B)

P(B A).

16 a

If A and B are two events which are statistically independent,

write down expressions for P(A B) and P(A B) in terms
of P(A) and P(B).
Anji and Katrina are keen cinema goers, but they decide
each Friday independently of one another whether they go to
the cinema. On any given Friday, the probability of both going
to the cinema is 1 , and the probability that at least one of them
3

goes is 5 .
6
Find the possible values for the probability that Anji goes
to the cinema on a Friday.

86

(8)

4 Probability

17 Of the pupils who took English in a certain school one year, 60%
of them took History, 30% of them took Religious Studies and 10%
took both History and Religious Studies.
One of the pupils taking English is chosen at random.
a

Find the probability that this pupil took neither History nor
Religious Studies.

Given that the pupil took exactly one of History and

Religious Studies, find the probability it was History.

18 Two identical bags each contain 12 discs, which are identical

except for colour. One bag (A) contains six red and six blue
discs, and the other (B) contains eight red and four blue discs.
a A bag is selected at random and a disc is selected from it.
Draw a tree diagram, illustrating this situation, and
calculate the probability that the disc drawn will be red.
b The disc selected is now returned to the same bag, along
with another two of the same colour, and another disc is
chosen from that bag. Find the probability that:

S1

i it is the same colour as the first disc drawn

ii bag A was used, given that two discs of the same colour
have been chosen.

87

Exit

Summary
}

}
}

S1

The relative frequency of an event happening can be used as an

estimate of the probability of that event happening. The estimate
is more likely to be close to the true probability if the experiment
has been carried out a large number of times.
A two-way table can be used to show the possible outcomes of
a compound event such as throwing two dice.
Venn diagrams are useful when you have information about
single events and also their union or intersection.
Tree diagrams are useful when you know the probabilities of
each stage of compound events. You multiply along the branches
to get the probability of a pathway, and the probabilities of
different pathways can be added.

4.1
4.2
4.3

4.4

P(V F )
} The conditional probability of V given F is P(V | F ) =
.
P(F )

Be careful to work out the probability of both V and F

happening directly and not from the probabilities of V and F
happening individually.
Events V and F are independent if P(V F) = P(V) i.e. knowing
that F has happened has given no information about the
likelihood of V happening.

Links
Conditional probability reasoning is a fundamental component
of using DNA evidence in trials.
Evaluating risk is a fundamental part of our everyday
lives and it is mostly done very informally, so having
a good understanding of the way likelihoods of different
events combine can help you to make better informed
judgements.

88

Refer to

4.5

4.6