Jack Hawkins Period 3 5/17/2012 The Linear Regression Project Have you ever wondered if a countrys population affects

its economic output? Does having a larger population create a better economy? I studied The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of a country compared to that countrys population. I chose this data because it is very global, and the GDP is one of the main economic measures taken for a country. I was very interested in whether the population of a country affects that countrys economic output. This pertains to my life, because by being an Austin Global Studies student, I strive to be a global learner and citizen. Studying the relationship between the GDP and population of different countries, I can further my knowledge and understanding of world issues.
Relationship of Population to GDP
15,000,000 14,000,000 13,000,000 12,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0
0 50,000,000

GDP (US Dollars in Millions)

y = 0.0319x - 160990 R2 = 0.6609 R = 0.8130

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

Population

The scatter plot shows a positive correlation. Most of the countries had a very small GDP and population, which were clustered in the bottom left corner. The outliers were the United States, Indonesia, and Canada. Indonesia had a very large population, but

Jack Hawkins Period 3 5/17/2012 a low GDP, while the US and Canada both had relatively high GDPs compared to their population. The Equation for this data is: y = 0.0319x 160990 This means that the slope is 0.0319, and the y-intercept is 160990. The y-intercept means that when the population is at zero, the GDP is negative 160990. (0,-160990). The slope means that for every increase of one person (population), the GDP increases by 0.0319. So, for whatever the population of a country is, you multiply that by 0.0319 to find the GDP (US dollars in millions). The r value of the equation is r = 0.8130. This value tells us that the correlation is positive, and that it is somewhat close to being linear. The closer the r value is to positive one or negative one; the closer it is to being exactly linear. The number 0.8130 is only 0.1870 away from 1. The correlation is almost linear with a positive slope. The three values I will predict are the GDP for China, Cameroon, and Tonga.
Population 1,338,612,968 18,879,301 120,898 GDP (US dollars in millions) 5,878,257 22,522 363

China Cameroon Tonga

China: The equation is y = 0.0319x 160990. To find the GDP of China, you would substitute the population in for (x). So, y = 0.0319(1,338,612,968) 160990. y = 42,540,763. So, the predicted GDP for China is 42,540,763 US dollars in millions.

Cameroon: To find the GDP of Cameroon, you substitute the population in for (x). y = 0.0319(18,879,301) 160990. y = 441,260. The predicted GDP for Cameroon is 441,260 US dollars in millions.

Jack Hawkins Period 3 5/17/2012 Tonga: To find the GDP of Tonga, substitute the population in for (x). y = 0.0319(120898) 160990. y = -157,133. The predicted GDP for Tonga is -157,133 US dollars in millions. The main career that would use this data would be an economist. Somebody who works with economies or predicts output of other countries could use this data to predict the production level of a country, or to look at the population of a country compared to their gross domestic product. Also, world leaders could use this to determine productivity of different countries depending on the size of the population in that country. These careers are relevant to our society in that they look at economic output at a global level, which is very important to everyday life.

In conclusion, the Gross Domestic Product of a country does relate to that countrys population, although it is not the only thing that effects it. Because it does not take in to account the development level of that country, and many other economic and human factors, it is not a perfect model. By using the equation to attempt to predict other countrys GDPs, I found out that the predicted gross domestic product was very different than the actual GDP of that country. China was an outlier in that it is very well developed, so the predicted GDP was a lot different than the actual GDP. The other countries that were tested were also off, but not as much. To back up this idea, I tested the GDP of the United States (which I included in my data) using the equation I obtained from the analysis. The equation predicted the States GDP to be a lot lower than the actual GDP of the country, which is easily seen on my scatter plot.

Jack Hawkins Period 3 5/17/2012 The data tested was a positive correlation that was relatively linear, but there are many different aspects that go towards the GDP of a country, so only using population makes it hard to predict. All in all, I have learned a lot about the global economy by testing this data, and I feel as if I have a better understanding of the world around me, due to my research and analysis of population compared to the Gross Domestic Product of a country.

Jack Hawkins Period 3 5/17/2012 Sources: International Monetary Fund GDP data

http://www.imf.org/external/data.html
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2010&ey=2010&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds =.&br=1&c=512%2C941%2C914%2C446%2C612%2C666%2C614%2C668%2C311%2C672%2C213%2C946%2C911%2C1 37%2C193%2C962%2C122%2C674%2C912%2C676%2C313%2C548%2C419%2C556%2C513%2C678%2C316%2C181%2 C913%2C682%2C124%2C684%2C339%2C273%2C638%2C921%2C514%2C948%2C218%2C943%2C963%2C686%2C616 %2C688%2C223%2C518%2C516%2C728%2C918%2C558%2C748%2C138%2C618%2C196%2C522%2C278%2C622%2C6 92%2C156%2C694%2C624%2C142%2C626%2C449%2C628%2C564%2C228%2C283%2C924%2C853%2C233%2C288%2 C632%2C293%2C636%2C566%2C634%2C964%2C238%2C182%2C662%2C453%2C960%2C968%2C423%2C922%2C935 %2C714%2C128%2C862%2C611%2C716%2C321%2C456%2C243%2C722%2C248%2C942%2C469%2C718%2C253%2C7 24%2C642%2C576%2C643%2C936%2C939%2C961%2C644%2C813%2C819%2C199%2C172%2C184%2C132%2C524%2 C646%2C361%2C648%2C362%2C915%2C364%2C134%2C732%2C652%2C366%2C174%2C734%2C328%2C144%2C258 %2C146%2C656%2C463%2C654%2C528%2C336%2C923%2C263%2C738%2C268%2C578%2C532%2C537%2C944%2C7 42%2C176%2C866%2C534%2C369%2C536%2C744%2C429%2C186%2C433%2C925%2C178%2C869%2C436%2C746%2 C136%2C926%2C343%2C466%2C158%2C112%2C439%2C111%2C916%2C298%2C664%2C927%2C826%2C846%2C542 %2C299%2C967%2C582%2C443%2C474%2C917%2C754%2C544%2C698&s=NGDPD&grp=0&a=&pr.x=67&pr.y=20

World Atlas online database-

http://www.worldatlas.com/aatlas/populations/ctypopls.htm

US Census world population clock

http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html