Forest Management and Planning

Chapter 4. Estimation and Projection of Stand and Forest Conditions

Ingrowth
(1,000 ft3)

Accretion
(1,000 ft3)

Mortality
(1,000 ft3)

Removals
(1,000 ft3)

43,696
14,967
16,477

82,158
108,875
87,335

83,752
41,585
14,659

69,108
84,330
76,450

As a reminder,
Gross growth = A12 + I2
Net growth = A12 + I2 - M12
Net change = A12 + I2 - M12 - R12
Balsam fir
Gross growth = 82,158,000 ft3 + 43,696,000 ft3 = 125,854,000 ft3
Net growth = 82,158,000 ft3 + 43,696,000 ft3 - 83,752,000 ft3 = 42,102,000 ft3
Net change = 82,158,000 ft3 + 43,696,000 ft3 - 83,752,000 ft3 - 69,108,000 ft3 = -27,006,000 ft3
Red spruce
Gross growth = 108,875,000 ft3 + 14,967,000 ft3 = 123,842,000 ft3
Net growth = 108,875,000 ft3 + 14,967,000 ft3 - 41,585,000 ft3 = 82,257,000 ft3
Net change = 108,875,000 ft3 + 14,967,000 ft3 - 41,585,000 ft3 - 84,330,000 ft3
= - 2,073,000 ft3
Red maple
Gross growth = 87,335,000 ft3 + 16,477,000 ft3 = 103,812,000 ft3
Net growth = 87,335,000 ft3 + 16,477,000 ft3 - 14,659,000 ft3 = 89,153,000 ft3
Net change = 87,335,000 ft3 + 16,477,000 ft3 - 14,659,000 ft3 - 76,450,000 ft3 = 12,703,000 ft3
2. Nonlinear diameter distribution relationships of uneven-aged stands. For Tract 38 from Meyer
[5], what would you expect the trees per acre to be in the 13-inch diameter class?
The diminution quotient for the 1-inch diameter classes of Tract 38 is 1.247. Therefore, we
would expect that the number of trees per acre in the 13-inch diameter class to be what was in
the 12-inch class (9.66 trees per acre) divided by 1.247, or 7.747 trees per acre. As a check,
the diminution quotient for the 2-inch diameter classes of Tract 38 is 1.556. Therefore, we
would expect that the number of trees per acre in the 13-inch diameter class to be what was in
the 11-inch class (12.049 trees per acre) divided by 1.556, or 7.744 trees per acre. Some
rounding of values resulted in the slight difference (0.003 trees per acre) between the two
estimates.
3. Nonlinear diameter distribution relationships of uneven-aged stands. For Tract 38 from Meyer
[5], what would you expect the trees per acre to be in the 14-inch diameter class? How is this
estimate of trees per acre different from the answer provided for question 2, and why?

The diminution quotient for the 1-inch diameter classes of Tract 38 is 1.247. Therefore, we
would expect that the number of trees per acre in the 14-inch diameter class to be what was in
the 13-inch class (7.747 trees per acre) divided by 1.247, or 6.213 trees per acre. As a check,
the diminution quotient for the 2-inch diameter classes of Tract 38 is 1.556. Therefore, we
would expect that the number of trees per acre in the 14-inch diameter class to be what was in
the 12-inch class (9.66 trees per acre) divided by 1.556, or 6.208 trees per acre. Again, some
rounding of values resulted in the slight difference (0.005 trees per acre) between the two
estimates. This estimate of trees per acre is again smaller than the 13-inch diameter class
because with an uneven-aged stand that is represented by a reverse-J shaped diameter
distribution, we would expect a smaller number of trees per unit area as the diameter class
increases.
4. Nonlinear diameter distribution relationships of uneven-aged stands. Develop a stand table for
Tract 41 from Meyer [5], where a = 0.163, k = 66, and q = 1.38, using diameters ranging from
1 inch to 40 inches.
Whether you use the Meyer equation directly or simply use it to estimate the number of trees
in the first diameter class, then use the q value to estimate other trees per acre values, you
should have arrived at a stand table similar to this one. Through investigation you might have
noticed that the q value is for 2-inch diameter classes.
DBH
class
(inches)

Trees
per
acre

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

56.07
47.64
40.47
34.39
29.21
24.82
21.09
17.92
15.22
12.93
10.99
9.33
7.93
6.74
5.72
4.86
4.13
3.51
2.98
2.53
2.15
1.83
1.55
1.32
1.12
0.95
0.81
0.69
0.58
0.50
0.42

32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40

0.36
0.30
0.26
0.22
0.19
0.16
0.13
0.11
0.10

5. Forest growth dynamics. What is the net annual change in basal area of a fully stocked, evenaged, 33-year old upland oak site in Kentucky described using the following table? The growth
transition of a fully stocked, even-aged, 33-year old upland oak site in Kentucky, over seven
years, was derived from Dale [33].

White oaks
Red oaks
Walnut, yellow-poplar, ash and others
Hickory, gum, maple and others
Dogwood, sourwood, sassafras and others
Total

Basal
area at
beginning
(ft2/ac)

Basal
area at
end
(ft2/ac)

73.3
18.0
1.1
5.5
2.2

75.3
16.5
1.0
5.5
1.7

100.1

100.0

The net change is 100.0 ft2/acre - 100.1 ft2/acre, or -0.1 ft2 per acre over the 7-year period.
The net annual change is then -0.014 ft2/acre/year.
6. Even-aged versus uneven-aged management. Assume that you are a forestry consultant in
Kentucky, and are advising a landowner who owns 200 acres of 40- to 50-year old mixed
hardwood stands. The landowner is a bit confused about the even-aged and uneven-aged
approaches to the management of the forest. Prepare for them a short memorandum that
describes the main similarities and differences between the two management approaches to
their forest.
In developing a memorandum for the landowner (which we won't do here), you should
emphasize the points illustrated in Table 4.1 to compare the two approaches to the
management of forests. Discuss the changes that landowner should see over time to the
density, mortality rate, mortality of volume, height of the canopy, average tree diameter,
diameter distribution, basal area, timber growth rates, and timber yields.
7. Yield and stock tables. Assume that you are working for the Bureau of Indian Affairs in northern
Arizona, and are involved in the planning of a forested area. When describing how to model
the growth and yield of forests, members of the planning team have thrown around the terms
volume table and yield table, and as a result you determine that they are unfamiliar with the
characteristics of each. Prepare for the planning team a short memorandum that describes the
similarities and differences between the two approaches for estimating tree and stand
volumes.

As we mentioned in Section II of this chapter, a volume table is where one can locate the
estimated volume for a single tree of a given size. Sometimes these are presented in terms of
DBH and tree height, other times in terms of DBH and logs (as in Table 4.8).
A yield table, on the other hand, provides one with an estimate of the volume per unit area for
multiple trees found on that area. Yield tables allow one to estimate the capacity of an area to
produce wood volume. Some yield tables are for fully-stocked stands, yet provide a way to
estimate the volume of non-fully stocked stands. Yield tables are generally based on
combinations of age and site index, and sometimes provide estimates of trees per unit area
and basal area, in addition to volume.
8. Growth and yield models. Assume that you work for a small consulting firm in south Georgia
and are given the task of projecting the growth of forests 20 years into the future. These
analytical efforts will support the development of forest plans for private landowners that have
come to your firm for assistance. Your managers are unsure which approach is more
appropriate for estimating forest conditions. Describe in a short report the similarities and
differences between distance independent models, distance-dependent models, whole-stand
models, and gap simulators.
In developing a memorandum for the landowner (which we won't do here), you should
emphasize the following:
Distance independent models - These models use estimates of tree characteristics to model
the competition among trees for light, water, and nutrients. The potential growth of each
tree is projected into the future, and perhaps a mortality function is applied. Measures of
stand density are used as a proxy for competition.
Distance-dependent models - These models use estimates of tree characteristics and
distances to nearest trees to model the competition among trees for light, water, and
nutrients. The potential growth of each tree is projected into the future, and perhaps a
mortality function is applied.
Whole-stand models - These can consist of tables of yields derived from measurements of
stands, and can reflect average conditions one should expect over the life of the stand. In
modeling, stand-level data are used, rather than tree-level data, and growth for the whole
stand is projected using transition probabilities.
Gap simulators - These models are similar to individual tree models, yet each tree is
represented by the gap it might occupy in the canopy. Growth dynamics are simulated
based on the light made available to the tree.