GO Expansion

Full Business Case

barrie

richmond
November 2018 hill
stouffville

kitchener

lakeshore east
milton

union
station

lakeshore west
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE
 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

GO Expansion
Full Business Case
November 2018
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Contents

Executive Summary 2. Context 3. GO Expansion Program

Problem and Opportunity ii 2.1 The Need for Regional Transportation 3.2 Reference Concept Design Process
Investment: Managing Growth and Assumptions 61
The Benefit iii
Congestion 12
3.3 Program Interdependencies and
Preface & Background iv
2.2 Problem Statement 13 Parallel Projects 69
The Case for Change vi
Problem Deep Dive —
Proposed Investment ix Understanding the Need for Investment 15
Strategic Case xiv Planned Transportation Investments 21 4. Strategic Case
Economic Case xviii 2.3 The Opportunity: Strategic Case Summary 74
Invest in Rail to Accommodate Growth 24
Financial Case xx 4.1 Transportation Benefits 75
2.4 The Solution: Transform GO Rail
Deliverability and Operations Case xxii 4.2 Quality of Life Benefits 84
into a Rapid Rail System 28
Conclusion xxiii Experience from other City-Regions 30 4.3 Economic Prosperity and
Development Benefits 88
GO Expansion – Regional Benefits
and Evaluation Framework 32 4.4 Protected Environment Benefits 97
1. Introduction 4.5 Strategic Case Conclusions 100
Background 3 Summary 100
What is GO Expansion? 3 3. GO Expansion Program Key Considerations for
Future Program Planning 102
What is a Full Business Case? 6 3.1 Program Definition 41
Full Business Case Structure 6 Program Overview 41
Reference Concept Design Summary 41
5. Economic Case
GO Rail Line Improvements 49
Economic Case Summary 106
Lakeshore West 50
5.1 Economic Case Analysis 107
Kitchener 52
Understanding Benefit Cost Analysis 107
Barrie 54
5.2 Economic Narrative 109
Stouffville 56
5.3 Economic Costs 110
Lakeshore East 58
5.4 User Impacts 111
Milton and Richmond Hill 60
5.5 External Impacts 113
5.6 Wider Impacts 115
 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

5. Economic Case 7. Deliverability and 8. Conclusion

5.7 Economic Case Conclusions 116
Operations Case Business Case Conclusion 154
Summary 116 7.1 Key Delivery Strategies 142 Recommendations 156
Conclusions 119 Overview 142 Next Steps 156
Benefit Dependencies and Risk 120 Governance 142

Other Benefits and Integrated Project Team 142

Benefits Not Considered 120 Delivery of the On-Corridor Works and
Acknowlegments 157
Sensitivity Tests 122 Services in an Integrated Alternative Finance
and Procurement Process (DBFOM) 143
Sensitivity Test Analysis 122
Enabling OnCorr Project Co to Optimize Glossary 158
Program Specification Tests 126 System Design and Service Plans 143
Key Considerations for No Transfer of Traffic or Revenue Risk 143
Future Program Planning 126
Flexibility for Future Service Appendix: Peer Review
Requirements 143
Overview of the GO Expansion
Community Consultation 143
6. Financial Case Business Case Peer Review 160
Readiness 143
Financial Case Summary 130
7.2 Procurement 145
6.1 Financial Case Analysis 131
Overview 145
6.2 Financial Impact to Metrolinx 132
Procurement Structure 146
6.3 Funding Sources 135
Early Works 146
6.4 Financial Case Conclusions 136
Off-Corridor 146
Financial Risks and Risk Management 137
On-Corridor 146
Conclusions 138
Industry Capability to Deliver the
Sensitivity Tests 138 On-Corridor Procurement 147
7.3 Operations and Maintenance 148
Overview 148
Roles and Responsibilities 148
Operational Framework 150
7.4 Risks Management 151
Overview 151
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figures Index

1. Introduction 2. Context 3. GO Expansion Program Definition

1.1 Mapping the evolution 2.12 Benefits of GO Expansion 32 3.12 GO Expansion Design Timeline 63
of GO Expansion 5
2.13 GO Expansion Evaluation Framework 34 3.13 GO Expansion Service and
1.2 Illustration of the Business Case Infrastructure Design Process 65
2.14 GO Expansion Roadmap and
and Stage Gate Process 6
Evaluation Approach 36-37
1.3 The Business Case structure 7
4. Strategic Case
3. GO Expansion Program Definition 4.1 GO Rail Annual Ridership
2. Context With and Without GO Expansion 76
3.1 Overview of GO Rail Services
2.1 Applying the 2041 Regional After GO Expansion 43 4.2 GO Rail Ridership Compared to
Transportation Plan Vision in the Other North American
3.2 AM Peak Reference Concept Design
GO Expansion Full Business Case Passenger Railways 77
GO Rail Services after GO Expansion 44
Strategic and Policy Considerations
4.3 GO Rail Ridership After
for Transportation Investment 12 3.3 Off-Peak Reference Concept Design
GO Expansion by Time of Day 77
GO Rail Services after GO Expansion 45
2.2 What happens if the problem is not
4.4 GO Rail Ridership Change in
addressed? 14 3.4 Reference Concept Design
Peak Period Ridership After
GO Expansion
2.3 Transportation Markets in the GO Expansion is Implemented,
Travel Time Improvements 46
GO Service Area 15 2031 (reflective of ridership after
3.5 Comparison of Travel Times on program is fully implemented) 78
2.4 Forecasted Population Growth
GO Rail to Downtown Toronto Before
by 2041 in the Greater Toronto 4.5 GO Rail Ridership Change in Off-Peak
and After GO Expansion in the AM Peak 47
and Hamilton Area 16 Ridership After GO Expansion is
3.6 Comparison of Travel Times on Implemented, 2055 (reflective of
2.5 Employment Growth in the
GO Rail to Dowtown Toronto Before ridership after program is fully
Greater Toronto and Hamilton
and After GO Expansion in the Off Peak 48 implemented) 79
Area from 2011 to 2041 17
3.7 Lakeshore West Reference Concept Design 4.6 Comparison of Operating Costs
2.6 GTHA Travel Market Analysis 18
Frequency and Speed Improvements 51 and Revenue for GO Rail in the
2.7 Total peak period travel demand by BAU and with GO Expansion 81
travel market, 2011 and 2041 19 3.8 Kitchener Reference Concept Design
4.7 Population Living Within a
Frequency and Speed Improvements 53
2.8 Rapid Transit and Set Distance from a GO Rail Station
GO Rail Interconnectivity 22 3.9 Barrie Reference Concept Design Frequency with Two-Way, All-Day Service
and Speed Improvements 55 Before and After GO Expansion 85
2.9 Comparing Auto and
GO Transit Travel Times in 2018 26-27 3.10 StouffvilleReference Concept Design 4.8 Amount of the GTHA’s Population
That Can Access Downtown Toronto
2.10 Example Rapid Rail Systems 30 Frequency and Speed Improvements 57
by Travel Time Before and
2.11 Rapid Rail Systems Around the World 31 3.11 Lakeshore East Reference Concept Design After GO Expansion 85
Frequency and Speed Improvements 59
 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

4. Strategic Case 5. Economic Case Photo Credits (Creative Commons)

4.9 Employment within a set distance of 5.1 Economic Case Narrative 109 David Wilson
a GO Rail station with Two-Way, CC BY-SA 2.0 GO Train 1968 v
5.2 GO Expansion
All-Day Service 89
Economic Summary – Network 116 John Ray (Flickr)
4.10 Amount of the GTHA’s Jobs CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Paris RER viii, 30
5.3 GO Expansion
That Are Within Travel Times of
Economic Summary – By Line 118 Frederick K Larkin (Flickr)
Downtown Toronto Before and
CC-BY-SA 2.0
After GO Expansion 89
GO MP Locomotive Blank Pages
4.11 GO Expansion will increase the
Tom Flemming (Flickr)
economic connectivity and 7. Deliverability and
CC BY-NC 2.0 Hamilton GO Centre 75
prosperity of the region 91 Operations Case
Simon Carr (Flickr)
4.12 GO Rail Journey Time Between
7.1 GO Expansion Project Delivery 142 CC BY-SA 2.0 GO Union Station 88
Downtown Toronto and Urban Growth
Centres and Employment Hubs in 7.2 Infrastructure Procurement Models 145 Lord Of The Wings (Flickr)
the Peak Period without GO Expansion 92 CC BY-SA 2.0 GO Train in Foliage 97
4.13 GO Rail Journey Time Between Downtown All other photos used on this
Toronto and Urban Growth Centres and FBC are of public domain
Employment Hubs in the Peak Period
with GO Expansion 93
4.14 GO Rail Journey Time Between Downtown
Toronto and Urban Growth Centres and
Employment Hubs in the Off-Peak Period
without GO Expansion 94
4.15 GO Rail Journey Time Between
Downtown Toronto and Urban Growth
Centres and Employment Hubs in the
Off-Peak Period with GO Expansion 95
4.16 Average GHG Emissions
Per Passenger Trip on GO Rail 98
4.17 Ten Reasons Communities in
the GO Service Area Benefit From
GO Expansion 100
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Tables Index

2. Context 4. Strategic Case 6. Financial Case

2.1 High Level Review of Existing GTHA 4.1 GO Rail Ridership Growth with 6.1 Financial Case Assumptions 131
Transportation Network Modes for and Without GO Expansion 76 6.2 Costs to Deliver GO Expansion 133
Medium and Long Distance Travel 20
4.2 Customer Service Improvements for 6.3 GO Expansion Revenue Impacts 134
2.2 Comparing How Different Modes GO Rail based on the 2041 Regional
Could Address the Transportation Plan Personas 83 6.4 Funding Sources 135
Problem Statement 25
4.3 Benefits of GO Expansion to 6.5 Financial Case Summary 136
2.3 The Role of Rapid Rail as Part of Rail Passengers, Drivers, and the Region 102
Regional Transportation Networks 29
4.4 Impact of other planned investments
2.4 Key Stakeholder Plans and Projects, on the Strategic Case for 7. Deliverability and
Municipval Review 33 GO Expansion 103
Operations Case
7.1 GO Expansion Environmental
3. GO Expansion Program Definition 5. Economic Case Assessment 144
7.2 On-Corridor Procurement Roles and
3.1 GO Expansion Program Description, 5.1 Economic Case Narrative 108 Responsibilities 149
Objectives, and Reference Design
5.2 GO Expansion Costs
Summary 42
(incremental to BAU scenario) 110
3.2 GO Expansion Improvements to the
5.3 User Impacts Summary 112 8. Conclusion
Lakeshore West Line 50
5.4 External Impacts Summary 114
3.3 GO Expansion Improvements to the 8.1 GO Expansion Business Case Summary 158
Kitchener Line 52 5.5 Potential Wider Economic Impacts
of GO Expansion 115
3.4 GO Expansion Improvements to the
Barrie Line 54 5.6 Economic Case Summary 117
3.5 GO Expansion Improvements to the 5.7 Benefits Not Estimated and
Stouffville Line 56 Monetized in the GO Expansion
Full Business Case 121
3.6 GO Expansion Improvements to the
Lakeshore East Line 58 5.8 Sensitivity Test Analysis 124-125
3.7 BAU Assumptions used in this FBC 64 5.9 Impact of New Stations on
Economic Performance 126
3.8 Train Types and Train Performance Used in
the Reference Concept Design 66 5.10 Impact of Key Considerations on the
Economic Case for GO Expansion 127
3.9 Interdependencies with Other Projects 70
 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Table of Acronyms
AODA Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act P3 Private Public Partnership
BAU Business As Usual PDBCs Preliminary Design Business Cases
BCR Benefit Cost Ratio RCD Reference Concept Design
BRT Bus Rapid Transit RCUS Route and Corridor Utilization Studies
CACs Criteria Air Contaminants RER Regional Express Rail
DBB Design Bid Build RFP Request for Proposal
DBB Design Build RFQ Request for Qualifications
DBFOM Design, Build, Finance, Operate, Maintain TDM Transportation Demand Management
EMUs Electric Multiple Units TOD Transit Oriented Development
FBC Full Business Case TOP Transit Optimization Program
GGHM Greater Golden Horseshoe Model TTC Toronto Transit Commission
GHG Greenhouse Gas TYSSE Toronto York Spadina Subway Extension
GTHA Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area USRC Union Station Rail Corridor
HSR High Speed Rail VoT Value of Time
Hydrail Hydrogen Powered Trains WEI Wider Economic Impacts
IBC Initial Business Case
LRT Light Rail Transit
NPV Net Present Value
Executive Summary

i
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE
Problem and Opportunity:
Investing in Regional Transportation to Realize and Manage Urban Growth
THE PROBLEM: THE CURRENT
TRANSPORTATION NETWORK CANNOT THE SOLUTION: TRANSFORM GO RAIL INTO A RAPID RAIL SYSTEM
MEET THE NEEDS OF A GROWING REGION
GO Expansion is an investment program that will transform GO Rail into a
By 2041, the GO Service Area, including Rapid Rail System that provides the expanded mobility the GTHA needs to
the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area accommodate growth and maintain a high quality of life and prosperous economy.
(GTHA), Kitchener-Waterloo, Barrie, and
GO Expansion is one of Canada’s largest infrastructure and transport
Niagara is expected to grow to over 12
projects. It will cost $16.8 billion beyond the $38.9 GO Rail would need to
million people. While this growth will be
spend over 60 years to continue to operate and maintain the system.
spread across the region, Toronto will
remain the largest concentration of jobs and
will continue to be the economic engine of
the province Travel demand is expected to
increase by over 50% by the same year.1 FASTER AND
MORE ALL-DAY SERVICE
MORE EFFICIENT TRAINS
SERVICE IN BOTH DIRECTIONS Over 680 km of electrified track to provide trains that are up
Existing infrastructure will not be able to to 30% faster and 50% cheaper to operate per train KM
accommodate this growth. Much of the
network is already congested today – demand TRAINS EVERY 15 MINUTES
MORE ACCESSIBLE AN EXPANDED
for travel exceeds the network’s capacity. Over 205 km of new track laid to enable STATIONS UNION STATION
• Today congestion can increase travel 6,000 weekly services with two-way all-day
service on Lakeshore West, Kitchener, 42 Stations are upgraded Union Station’s platforms and tracks
times for drivers by as much as 120%. Barrie, Stouffville, and Lakeshore East. to improve accessibility are upgraded to accommodate
• Congestion could cost the region's demand beyond 2055
economy up to $15 billion annually Expanding GO is a cost-effective way to add transport capacity in the GTHA by
in lost productivity by 2031.2 leveraging existing, under-used rail corridors that span over 400 km of the region.
The transportation network requires new
travel choices for trips within cities, between
cities, and across the region. Without
investment, the region’s transportation
network will become a bottleneck to further
growth and will be a limiting factor for
HIGHWAYS SUBWAYS AND RAPID TRANSIT
quality of life and economic prosperity.
The highway network provides six lanes into the core on Line 1 and Line 2 play a critical role in the GTHA’s
the Don Valley Parkway and six lanes on the Gardiner transportation network. They ensure travellers can
WHY NOT USE OTHER MODES TO Expressway. These highways are already congested access the core and much of the City of Toronto.
and do not have capacity for further growth.
SOLVE THIS PROBLEM? New rapid transit to Downtown Toronto is being
Both highways cannot realistically be expanded further – explored as a means to reduce crowding and expand
Other modes also play a critical role in the GTHA the Gardiner runs alongside new urban developments accessibility – however, using subways or rapid transit
transportation network and are being invested in to connect the rest of the GTHA to Downtown Toronto
through other projects and programs – however, Investment in highways upstream will not mitigate
will be expensive, while the railway network already
they are not optimal solutions to provide more the Downtown Toronto bottleneck, while investment
provides 400km of coverage across the GTHA.
capacity for long distance travel and travel to in rail can decongest highways reducing travel
times for people who continue to drive.
Downtown Toronto from the rest of the GTHA.
2 Metrolinx Cost of Congestion
ii 1 Population, Employment, and Demand statistics drawn (www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/costsofcongestion/
from the Greater Golden Horseshoe Model v4 ISP_08-015_Cost_of_Congestion_report_1128081.pdf)
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Benefit:
Unlocking Regional Growth through Transportation Investment

GO Expansion was evaluated using Metrolinx’s Business Case Guidance to complete

a Full Business Case – the most rigorous analysis of a potential investment.3
The case for GO Expansion is robust –
• GO Rail will become one of the busies railways in North America with over it will realize significant benefits to
200 million annual riders – allowing seamless access to the downtown core transit users, drivers, and the region
• Passengers will save over 10 minutes a trip on average, as a whole. By leveraging an existing
while drivers benefit from less congested roads network of over 400 km of railway, GO
• Over 40% of all homes and 45% of all jobs will have direct access to a Expansion will break the development
STRATEGIC CASE station with two-way all-day service with a train every 15 minutes or better bottleneck and unlock the development
Realizing regional potential of the region. This means:
policy • GO Rail will provide more service with up to 70%
less pollution per passenger trip • More time with family, for everyone –
• Investment in GO Expansion will generate 8,300 annual job travellers using GO Rail will get from where
equivalents in the first twelve years of construction and delivery they are to where they want to go faster, while
drivers will benefit from decongested roads.
• Total benefits of $42.2 billion compared to $16.2 billion
in economic costs resulting in a benefit cost ratio of 2.6 to 1 – • More money in pockets – travellers
meaning every dollar invested generates $2.60 for Ontario.4 who switch to GO Rail will save money
• Benefits include: by not paying for gas and parking .

ECONOMIC CASE • Transit User Benefits of $35.4 billion • More jobs and increased productivity –
Realizing value • Auto Traveller Benefits of $3.3 billion investing in rail will create new jobs in the
for society transport sector and make the GTHA a more
• Auto Operating Cost savings of $1.9 billion
• Health and Safety Benefits of $1.1 billion.
competitive place to invest and do business.
• Emission Reduction Benefits of $330 million • Better business for Metrolinx – more
efficient trains will reduce operating
subsidy requirements, and improved
• GO Rail’s incremental revenue is $12.3 billion, which means that most service will grow ridership and revenue.
of the $16.8 billion in incremental costs can be paid for by farebox
FINANCIAL CASE revenue, leading to a net incremental investment of $4.5 billion • Partnering with Private Sector – private
Managing financial sector partnerships will minimize delivery
resources accountably • GO Expansion recovers 110% of all operating costs over
to maximize returns its lifecycle (up to 130% per year after 2055) risk and support job growth and industrial
investment in the GTHA, while ensuring
GO Rail service meets customer needs.

• Metrolinx has already secured most necessary environmental

3 Metrolinx Business Case Guidance
DELIVERABILITY AND approvals and has begun early and enabling works
(http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/
OPERATIONS CASE • Metrolinx is shortlisting international consortia to deliver GO Expansion projectevaluation/benefitscases/Metrolinx%20
Ensuring benefits through a Public Private Partnership model, where a private partner Business%20Case%20Overview%20Volume%201.pdf)
are realized through consortium will Design Build Operate Finance (partially) and Maintain
innovative delivery
the system through construction and the first 30 years of operations 4 Benefits indicated in the table do not add to
mechanisms
$42.2 due to rounding. Table E.4 provides a
detailed summary of benefits and costs.
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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Preface Background
This document is Metrolinx’s
Full Business Case (FBC) for GO Expansion For over fifty years, GO Rail has provided While GO Rail has played a crucial role in shaping
— an investment program that will high-quality, fast, and reliable commuter rail regional growth and economic development
transform GO Rail into a Rapid Rail system service. GO Rail began as a one line pilot in the GTHA, it is only realizing a portion of its
that will provide faster and more frequent in 1967 and has now grown into one of overall potential and requires new investment
two-way all-day service across the GO Rail North America’s largest and most successful to meet the evolving needs of the region.
network. The purpose of this document is to commuter rail systems, exemplified by:
illustrate the proposed investment program, GO Rail can be transformed into a Rapid Rail
its benefits and costs, and core requirements • Daily ridership of over 200,000 passengers system that provides services all day in both
to successfully implement the program to and over 70 million annual passengers. directions with faster trains. This transformation
decision makers, the public, and funding will significantly expand transportation capacity
• Consistent ridership growth
partners. This document has been prepared to support growing communities and changing
for the last 20 years.
in accordance with Metrolinx’s business economies across the GO Rail Service Area.
case guidance, which specifies a common • Passenger rail service on seven lines
The analysis in this Full Business Case
structure for each Business Case to analyze covering over 400 km of railway
(FBC) builds on over three years of analysis
potential investments: corridors and 66 stations.
and investment planning to put forward
• Service is integrated with municipal bus the case for this transformation.
Case for Change networks and rapid transit systems with
What challenges and opportunities new connections being added alongside
does the investment address? the development of new rapid transit.
Today, the GO Rail Service Area covers a
Investment Definition population of over 8.8 million people living
What is the proposed investment?
in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA),
Kitchener-Waterloo, Barrie, and Niagara. Since
its inception as a pilot, GO Rail has evolved
Strategic Case
How does the investment support regional
into a core service for these communities and
plans, policies, and goals? each day nearly 40% of commuters headed to
Downtown Toronto make use of GO Rail services.
Economic Case
What are the socio-economic benefits and
costs of the investment?

Financial Case
What are the financial impacts of the
investment?

Deliverability & Operations Case

What is required to successfully deliver and
operate the investment?

iv
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

From a Pilot Project to a Region-Shaping Service:

The Evolution of GO Rail

1967- 1981- 1992- 2006- 2013- 2017-

1978 1990 2002 2011 2016 2030
1967 1981 1992 2006 2013 2017
• Service launched • Milton line opens • Lakeshore West line • Lakeshore East line • 30-minute service • Hourly off-peak
between Oakville extended to Aldershot weekend service on Lakeshore East service starts on
(Lakeshore West extended from and Lakeshore West Stouffville line
line) and Pickering 1982 Pickering to Oshawa lines launched
(Lakeshore East line), 1995
with hourly two-way • VIA's commuter 2018
all-day service and peak services to Bradford • Lakeshore East line 2008 2015
service to Hamilton and Stouffville extended to Oshawa • Lakeshore East
transferred to GO Rail • Stouffville line service • Lakeshore West and West lines
extended to Lincolnville line extended to mid-day service
1988 2000 West Harbour increased to nearly
1968
every 15 minutes
• Lakeshore East line • Off-peak weekday • Off-peak service added
• Exhibition station opens
extended to Whitby 2009 to Kitchener line as far
(Lakeshore West line) service extended to
Burlington (Lakeshore • Summer weekend as Mount Pleasant
West line) and Oshawa and holiday service to 2019
• UP Express service to
1990 (Lakeshore East line) Niagara Falls launches
1974 Pearson Airport starts • Procurement for
• Georgetown line with all-day service GO Expansion
• Georgetown line (now
extended to Guelph every 15 minutes
Kitchener line) opens
via Acton 2002 2011
• Barrie line extended • Off-peak • Georgetown line
service added to extended to Guelph 2016 2025 — 2030
1978 from Bradford to Barrie
Georgetown line as and Kitchener and re- • GO Rapid Rail
• Weekend service
• Richmond Hill line opens far as Bramalea named to Kitchener line services launch
added to Barrie line
on Lakeshore
• Richmond Hill line West, Kitchener,
service extended Barrie, Stoufville,
to Gormley and Lakeshore
East lines

v
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

The Case for

Change The Solution: Transform
GO Rail into a Rapid Rail System

The Problem: the Current A rail based investment is proposed to

Transportation Network Cannot Meet A congested transportation network will expand travel choices across the region and
the Needs of a Growing Region not support regional plans and polices to Downtown Toronto in order to manage
for urban development because: congestion and support a high quality
The GTHA is one of the fastest growing city- of life and economic competitiveness.
regions in North America and is a national • Congestion can increase travel times
centre for business, culture, and education. for drivers by as much as 120% There is significant untapped potential
By 2041, regional population is expected to compared to uncongested conditions for the network to provide new rail based
increase by 42% to more than 10 million people with today’s travel demand.6 transportation options that are faster, more
and total regional employment is estimated to efficient, and more frequent. Investment in
• Congestion is estimated to cost the rail is the best option to provide additional
grow by 41% to 4.8 million. In the same year,
region's economy up to $15 billion capacity in the GTHA because GO Rail:
the GTHA’s commute shed (the GO Service
annually in lost productivity by 2031.7
Area) will reach a total population of 12.4 • Offers competitive travel times –
million with many people living and working In order to accommodate growth, GO Rail saves travellers time each
in different communities. While this growth the network will need to: day compared to other modes.
will be spread across the region, Toronto
• Enable travel between emerging Urban • Covers the region – GO Rail allows
will remain the largest employment centre
Growth Centres and major employment, customers to travel across the
in the region with over 40% of all jobs.5
education, and recreation centres. GTHA and beyond on a network
The regional transportation network has an spanning over 400km of corridors.
• Provide reliable and high capacity
important role to play in ensuring the region
transportation options to downtown • Provides readily expandable
can manage this significant growth. Travel
Toronto, which will remain the capacity – GO rail trains can carry
demand is expected to grow alongside
heart of the region’s economy. 2,000 travellers, which is more than a
population and is forecast to increase by 50%
from 8 peak million trips to over 12 million • Support broader development goals for new lane of highway can carry in an
by 2041. By 2031, demand for travel into quality of life, economic development, hour. Every morning GO Rail can move
downtown Toronto will exceed the capacity and a protected environment. 80,000 passengers – this is the same
of the highway network and the rapid capacity as 40 lanes of highway.
As a result, investment is required to reduce
transit network will similarly be crowded. congestion and provide fast and reliable • Generates revenue that can
travel within cities and across the region cover some or all operating and
in order for the GTHA to remain a globally maintenance costs –
competitive region to live in and do business. a full GO Rail train in the peak period
does not require operating subsidy.
• Integrates with other modes – GO Rail
5 Population, Employment, and Demand statistics drawn 6 2016 TomTom Historic Traffic Congestion Statistic is connected to existing and in delivery
from the Greater Golden Horseshoe Model v4. (https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/trafficindex/city/toronto) rapid transit and local bus systems.
7 Metrolinx Cost of Congestion (http://www.metrolinx.
com/en/regionalplanning/costsofcongestion/ISP_08-
015_Cost_of_Congestion_report_1128081.pdf)
vi
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Rapid Rail: Faster, More Frequent, Why Not Invest in Other Modes?
Two-Way All-Day Service
Other modes play a critical role in the
Rapid Rail systems differ from commuter rail GTHA transportation network and are being
systems in that they provide two-way all-day invested in through other projects and
service with high frequencies (typically a train programs – however, they are not optimal
every fifteen minutes or better) using higher solutions to provide more capacity for long
speed trains (typically electrified with faster distance travel and travel to Downtown
breaking/acceleration and maximum speeds of Toronto from the rest of the GTHA.
120 km/h). Rapid Rail systems have successfully
been deployed to manage demand and
support economic prosperity in over 60 cities
around the world as shown in Figure E.1.

Highways Subways and Rapid Transit

The highway network provides six The TTC subway network serves a critical
lanes into the core on the Don Valley role in ensuring travellers can travel across
parkway and six lanes on the Gardiner Toronto and through downtown. New rapid
Express way. These highways are already transit to Downtown Toronto is being explored
congested and do not have capacity for as a means to reduce crowding and expand
further growth. Both highways cannot accessibility – however, using subways or
realistically be expanded further: rapid transit to connect the rest of the GTHA
to Downtown Toronto will be cost prohibitive,
• Recent urban developments
while the railway network already provides
alongside the Gardiner Expressway
400km of coverage across the GTHA. Other
have left no room for widening.
forms of rapid transit, such as Light Rail
• The Don Valley parkway runs through Transit is being explored to allow for intra-
a sensitive environmental area. municipal mobility but is not fast enough
to provide competitive regional travel.
Investment in highways upstream will
not mitigate the Downtown Toronto
bottleneck, while investment in rail can
decongest highways reducing travel times
for people who continue to drive.

vii
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure E.1: International Rapid Rail Examples

PARIS, FRANCE LONDON, ENGLAND TOKYO, JAPAN SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA

Paris’ railway blends radial and London has frequent electric The Tokyo rail network, Sydney has frequent two-way
cross city lines to provide high railway services on 40 routes in provides high frequency all-day services extending
levels of accessibility across a network that has developed services across the over a large network. Nearer
the city throughout the day. progressively since the 1920s metropolitan region and the city centre, trains run
into a Rapid Rail style system. into neighboring regions every 5-10 minutes, while
using fast electric trains. further out, headways extend
to 15 or 30 minutes.

viii
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Reference Concept Design for GO Rail

Proposed Metrolinx has developed a Reference
Investment Concept Design (RCD) that illustrates
how the GO Expansion program can
be delivered and the scope of benefits
GO Expansion Program Overview A Rapid Rail system will provide a the region could realize as a proof of
range of benefits and opportunities concept (further detailed in Table E.1).
Today the GO Rail system is a commuter rail
for the region, including:
system that largely serves trips in the peak This reference concept design is used to:
period to and from the core. Investment will • More time with family, for everyone –
transform GO Rail into a Rapid Rail system to travellers using GO Rail will get from where • Demonstrate that a working approach
support a growing region - this means: they are to where they want to go faster, while to deliver GO Expansion is possible.
drivers will benefit from decongested roads. • Determine a budget and
• Faster and More Efficient Trains –
new trains will realize travel time savings • More money in pockets – travellers construction schedule to be
(up to 29% faster) for customers and reduced who switch to GO Rail will save money approved by Treasury Board.
costs to operate (up to 60% cheaper). by not paying for gas and parking. This RCD was developed based on over
• Two-way, all-day service – whether a traveller’s • More jobs and increased productivity – three years of engineering, economic, and
destination is work, education, or recreation, investing in rail will create new jobs in the modelling analysis to present a realistic and
they can access more of the region on GO transport sector and make the GTHA a more deliverable concept for GO Expansion.
Rail with up to 6,000 weekly services. competitive place to invest and do business. This means a private sector partner will
• A train every 15 minutes, or better – travellers • Better business for Metrolinx – more collaborate with Metrolinx to design,
can turn up and go at their station and the efficient trains will reduce operating build, finance, and operate GO Rail as
system will provide capacity to accommodate subsidy requirements, and improved an Rapid Rail system. As a result, the
growth in travel demand into the future. service will grow ridership and revenue. exact specifications of the future GO
Rail system will be determined through
• Partnering with Private Sector – private the GO Expansion procurement process
Parallel Programs sector partnerships will minimize delivery where potential partners will submit
Metrolinx is currently developing risk and support job growth and industrial proposals to realize the core benefits
two additional GO Rail programs investment in the GTHA, while ensuring and objectives of GO Expansion defined
alongside GO Expansion: GO Rail service meets customer needs. in Table E.1 and Figures E.1 and E.2.
• New Stations across the GO Rail • A healthier and more sustainable region – The RCD is just one of many potential
network, which will allow more GO Expansion will realize reduced air infrastructure and service investment
people to make use of GO Rail. pollution, fewer road accidents, and programs that could be deployed
improved health for the region. to reach these objectives. Proposals
• GO Rail Extensions to Niagara,
The specific benefits GO Expansion will realize submitted to Metrolinx may vary in
Kitchener, and Bowmanville, which will
for the region and the requirements to deliver their design and delivery (example:
add new service and connectivities
are further explored in the four cases in this FBC. different signalling approaches,
to the Kitchener, Lakeshore West,
different track designs) – however
and Lakeshore East lines.
they all must deliver the performance
These programs are being designed objectives specified in this FBC.
and evaluated through their own
Business Case processes.
ix
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Table E.1: GO Expansion Program Summary

GO Expansion Performance
Description Reference Concept Design Features
Program Element Objectives

6,000 weekly services, including: • Expanded track and on-corridor

Provide service throughout the works to accommodate more frequent
day and on weekends, not just • Lakeshore West – two-way all-day service between service in both directions:
MORE ALL-DAY on weekday peak periods Union and Hamilton, fifteen minute service or
SERVICE better between Burlington and Union • Eleven new rail/road and two rail/
rail grade separations
• Kitchener – two-way all-day between Mount • 205 km of new track
Pleasant and Union, fifteen minute service or • Eleven new Pedestrian bridges
Provide two-way service on more better between Bramalea and Union
SERVICE IN BOTH of the GO Rail network • Barrie – two-way all-day between Allandale and Union,
DIRECTIONS fifteen minute service or better between Aurora and Union
• Stouffville – two-way all-day between Mount
joy and Union, fifteen minute service or
Increase frequencies to a better between Unionville and Union
train every fifteen minutes
or better where possible on • Lakeshore East – two-way all-day with fifteen minute
TRAINS EVERY the GO Rail network or better service between Oshawa and Union
15 MINUTES

Make use of fleet that are • Combination of Electric Multiple Units

more cost effective to operate • Making use of trains that are up to 29% faster and (EMUs) or Electric Hauled Locomotives
FASTER AND MORE and have  faster acceleration up to 50% cheaper to operate per train kilometer
and stopping • Over 680 km of GO Rail track is electrified
EFFICIENT TRAINS

Provide improved  stations, • Level boarding included at 42 stations to decrease

• Customers can board and alight faster,
allowing for easier access boarding, alighting, and platform clearance
reducing trip times times by 2-5 minutes
MORE ACCESSIBLE to GO Rail time, which will decrease train dwell times
STATIONS

Improve Union Station’s capacity

and passenger facilities, • Ability to accommodate rerference • Widened platform and improved vertical
AN EXPANDED improving train operations and frequencies on each GO Rail Line circulation (stairs, elevators)
UNION STATION passenger experience

x
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

xi
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure E.2:
GO Rail Off-Peak Service
With and Without GO Expansion

WITHOUT
GO EXPANSION
OFF-PEAK
SERVICE LEVEL

SERVICE LEVEL:

15 MINS OR BETTER

20 MINS

30 MINS

60 MINS

WITH
NO SERVICE
GO EXPANSION
OFF-PEAK
EXTENSIONS
UNDER DEVELOPMENT
SERVICE LEVEL

xii
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Figure E.2 (continued):

GO Rail Peak Service
With and Without GO Expansion

WITHOUT
GO EXPANSION
PEAK SERVICE LEVEL

SERVICE LEVEL:

15 MINS OR BETTER

20 MINS

30 MINS

60 MINS

NO
WITH
SERVICE
GO EXPANSION
PEAK SERVICE LEVEL EXTENSIONS
UNDER DEVELOPMENT
xiii
 Outcomes

GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

The Strategic Case Figure E.3: Ten Reasons Communities in the GO Service Area Benefit From GO Expansion

for GO Expansion TRANSPORTATION QUAL I TY OF L I F E

Overview 1 Doubling rail ridership – GO Expansion will

nearly double GO Rail’s ridership. By 2055, annual 5 New regional connections – After GO
Expansion, 41% of the region’s people will be
Metrolinx Strategic Cases articulate how a ridership will exceed 200 million (compared to able to access a GO Rail station with two-way all-
proposed investment supports or achieves 105 million without GO Expansion). This ridership day service by transit (compared to 34% without
regional plans, policies, and goals. Urban gain includes nearly 60 million additional off- GO Expansion). In addition, over 4,000 cultural,
peak and counter peak trips, a net increase of educational, and social service facilities will be
and regional development policies in 210%. This ridership increase reflects the latent readily accessible with two-way all-day GO Rail
the GTHA and GO Service Area have demand for improved rail service in the region. service. This will allow people to choose transit
been organized into four broad policy Delivering GO Expansion alongside the delivery to take them from where they are to where they
themes to communicate the strategic of rapid transit projects and improved station want to go – greatly improving their quality of life.
benefits of Metrolinx investments: access will allow GO Rail to act as the foundation
of a region wide transit network and realize
• Transportation Benefits - increasing these significant ridership increases. Ridership
efficiency, effectiveness, and resiliency changes are shown in Figure E.4 and Table E.2.
of the transportation system.
• Quality of Life Benefits – making it easier 2 Capacity for a growing region – GO Expansion
will allow GO Rail to add over 1,000 new rail 6 A healthier region with a safer transportation
network – GO Expansion will generate 15
for people to access more of the region services a day by upgrading rail corridors and million new walking and cycling trips to
with safe and convenient services. Union Station. Once upgraded, GO Rail can access GO Rail station a year. Active travel
increase capacity until the end of the century options tend to promote improved health.
• Economic Prosperity Benefits – to meet increased demand as the region’s In addition, as more drivers choose GO Rail,
supporting economic development by population and employment continue to grow. there will be less traffic and an estimated
reducing commute times, connecting 7,000 fewer accidents resulting in death or
businesses, and supporting investment. injury over the project lifecycle in the GTHA.

• Protected Environment Benefits –

supporting conservation by reducing 3 A self-sustaining railway – GO Expansion will
reduce the costs of operating trains and increase
the environmental impact of travel. ridership, leading to a railway system that covers
all operating costs with fare box revenue. With
GO Expansion, GO Rail revenues will exceed
110% of operating costs over the next sixty years,
The Strategic Case for GO Expansion with revenue equalling 150% of costs in 2055.
GO Expansion is expected to contribute
significantly to regional plans and policies 4 A railway that meets customer needs – GO
expansion will transform the customer experience
by improving transportation and promoting
for railway passengers. GO Rail will pivot from
a high quality of life, continued economic a peak only railway to a two-way all-day service
prosperity, and measures to protect the with 15 minute or better frequencies that will let
environment. The ten core benefits for GO customers turn up and go for their service. This
Expansion are described in Figure E.3 transition to a ‘subway’ style service will appeal
to a range of customers and make GO Rail a
competitive mode for many more trips than
today’s commuter focussed customer experience.
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 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

E CO N O MIC PR O SPE R ITY P R OTE CTE D E N VI R O N M E N T

7 Faster commutes – GO Expansion will reduce

commuter times by an average of 10 minutes 10 Cleaner air and energy conservation – GO
Expansion will reduce Criteria Air Contaminants
per trip and as much as 20-30 minutes for other that impact human health and up to six megatonnes
trips. After GO Expansion is delivered, 45% of all of Greenhouse Gases that contribute to climate
jobs in the region will accessible by transit from change. After the project is delivered, nearly
a GO Rail station with two-way all-day service, 145,000 cars trips per day will shift to rail and
compared to 35% in the off-peak. In addition, with more efficient trains, rail Greenhouse Gas
nearly 60% (a net increase of 30%) of all jobs emissions will drop from 1.85 kg/trip to 0.5 kg/trip.
in the GTHA will be accessible within a one
hour trip on the GO Rail network from Union
Station. This means people will have less stressful
commutes and more productive time for work, Table E.2: GO Expansion Ridership Impacts
supporting to an overall more prosperous region.
Annual 2017 2017 2017 2031 2031 2031 Ridership
8 Catalyzing regional development – GO
Expansion will reduce travel times between
Ridership
(millions)
Peak
Ridership
Off-Peak,
Contra-Peak,
Total
Ridership
Peak
Ridership
Off-Peak,
Contra-Peak,
Total
Ridership
Percent
Change
Urban Growth Centres and downtown Toronto and Weekend and Weekend 2017-2031
by 25 minutes in the off-peak and 10 minutes in Ridership Ridership
the peak. This ‘shrinking’ effect has been seen
to unlock investment and urban development
Lakeshore West 11.6 6.1 17.7 22.5 15.3 37.8 113%
in other city-regions. As more of the region’s
planned Urban Growth Centres are closer
to downtown, they become more attractive Lakeshore East 9 4.7 13.7 23.9 14.7 38.6 181%
places to do business, invest or live, which
in turn could accelerate development. New
developments could lead to a more productive Milton 7 - 7 9.3 - 9.3 33%
region or address housing affordability by
unlocking more of the region for denser and
Kitchener 5.2 2.9 8 19.5 25.1 44.6 395%
complete community style development.

9 Creating new jobs across the region – GO

Expansion is a regional project that will
Barrie 4.5 0.1 4.6 14 14.1 28.1 505%

generate trades and professional jobs during

it design, construction, and operations. An Richmond Hill 2.5 - 2.5 3.8 - 3.8 54%
estimated 8,300 annual job equivalents
for the first twelve years of delivery will be
Stouffville 3.2 0.7 3.9 10.1 6.3 16.5 323%
created over the lifecycle of the program.

GO Rail
42.9 14.5 57.4 103.2 75.5 178.7 211%
Network

xv
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure E.4: GO Expansion Ridership Impacts

DAILY STATION % CHANGE ALLANDALE

RIDERSHIP (2031) FROM BAU (2031)
BARRIE SOUTH

>16,001 INCREASE OVER 80% BRADFORD

EAST GWILLIMBURY
INCREASE 40-80%
8,001 - 16,000 NEWMARKET
LINCOLNVILLE

INCREASE 20-40% STOUFFVILLE

4,001 - 8,000
AURORA
INCREASE 10-20% B LO O M I N GTO N MOUNT JOY

2,001 - 4,000 GORMLEY MARKHAM

INCREASE 0-10% KING CITY RICHMOND
HILL CENTENNIAL

1,001 - 2,000 MAPLE UNIONVILLE

NO CHANGE LANGSTAFF

MILLIKEN
0 - 1000 NEW STATION RUTHERFORD

OLD
CUMMER
AGINCOURT
DOWNSVIEW
PARK
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BI
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BR
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IT

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KE

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ET

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A

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ES
SA

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EN
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N
LT
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TO
AC

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U
E

RT
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O
TO

IS
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R
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SPADINA-
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G
EG

RO

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W
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IL
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G
SC

IT
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W
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A
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AIRPORT

RB

IL
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A
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EXHIBITION

U
IE

FO

G
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H
ER

LL

RT
IO
IN

M I LT O N MIMICO

H
LE

N
A
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With investment, total annual ridership on

LE

S
W

T
LONG BRANCH
O

A
D

T
EA

the GO Rail network will exceed

IO
E
M

LL

PORT CREDIT

N
VI
TS

200 million
EE

CLARKSON
R
ST

OAKVILLE

BRONTE

APPLEBY
by 2055.
BURLINGTON 225225
RIDERSHIP (MILLIONS)

ALDERSHOT
175175
H A M I LT O N WEST HARBOUR
GO EXPANSION
125125

75 75
WITHOUT GO EXPANSION
25 25
0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055

-25
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 GO Expansion BAU 2040 2045 2050 2055

xvi
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Strategic Case Conclusion Table E.3: Benefits of GO Expansion to Rail Passengers, Drivers, and the Region
GO Expansion has a robust Strategic Case based
on the core benefits it realizes for the Region:
Background
• It will transform how people travel across
the region – allowing customers to use the
transit network in new ways that improve • Faster service (average of 10 minutes saved per trip)
their journey travel time and experience.
• Expanded choices – 29% of places to live and 32.5% of places to work
• It provides the capacity that allows the region are accessible with a fast, frequent, two-way all-day GO Rail service
to manage population and employment Rail and Transit
Passengers • More of the region can be reached by GO Rail including 4,000
growth through to the end of the century. cultural, educational, social service, and recreational sites within
• It will make significant contributions to transit access distance of a station with two-way all-day service
regional and provincial policy objectives by • Increased connectivity to the rapid transit network
directly improving quality of life, economic
prosperity, and environmental quality.
These strategic benefits are summarized • Reduced congestion (over 145,000 cars off the road each day) on
by transit users, drivers, and the Drivers
major highways leading to more reliable and quicker travel times
GTHA as whole in Table E.3

• A more connected region can attract investment in urban development

or businesses – GO Expansion will bring major urban growth centres
closer together by reducing travel time by 10-25 minutes
• For the first twelve years of program delivery there will be 8,300 job
equivalents created annually in construction and supply-chain industries
Region
• Improved health due to cleaner air and a more active population
• A more resilient transportation network with reduced operating subsidy,
expanded choice, and substantial additional capacity for the rest of the century
• Reduced traffic accidents and emissions

xvii
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

The Economic Case for

GO Expansion
GO Expansion Economic Benefits • Health and Safety Benefits of $1.1 billion
Overview due increased walking and cycling to
GO Expansion is expected to realize $42.2
GO Rail stations (health benefits) and
Metrolinx Economic Cases applies billion in economic benefits across the GTHA
fewer vehicles on the road leading to
international and local best practice for and GO Service area to travellers and society.
fewer car accidents (safety benefits).
socio-economic economic appraisal to GO Expansion realizes benefits in three ways:
answer the following key questions: • Emission Reduction Benefits of $330
1. Reducing travel time for existing and
million due to reduced emissions that
• What does the investment new customers by increasing frequencies
cause health impacts and climate change
cost in economic terms? and reducing travel times. This means
customers can access more of the region The Economic Case for GO
• What benefits will the investment realize?
with GO Rail and will benefit from faster Expansion – GO Expansion’s Benefits
• Do benefits exceed costs? travel times and frequent services that Significantly Exceed Costs
reduce customer need to plan ahead.
The Economic Case for GO Rail is summarized in
GO Expansion Economic Costs 2. Reducing the number of automobile trips, Table E.4. GO Expansion’s benefits significantly
which in turn reduces emissions and car exceed its costs leading to a Benefit Cost
GO Expansion will require incremental accidents and encourages more active travel. Ratio (BCR) of 2.6 – that means for every $1.00
investment of $16.2 billion over invested in GO Expansion, the province can
its lifecycle, including: 3. Increasing the energy and fuel
realize an economic benefit of $2.60. This BCR
efficiency of GO Rail trains, leading to
• Capital Costs (stations, trains, reflects how transformative GO Expansion will
emission and pollution reductions.
on-corridor works) of $12.2 billion be for how the region travels and conducts
These benefits include:8 business. Each line in the GO Expansion program
• Operating and Maintenance is expected to realize benefits that exceed costs,
Costs of $4.3 billion • Transit User Benefits of $35.4 billion due to
with the range of BCRs running from 1.7 to 4.2.
reduced travel times – on average travellers
These costs include all incremental costs could save 10 minutes per trip compared The Net Present Value (NPV – benefits minus
above and beyond business as usual to today’s service levels and speeds, with costs) for GO Expansion is $26 billion. This
investment (including state of good repair, fleet some travellers saving over 20 minutes. means the province invests $16.2 billion to
replacement, and basic service upgrades under realize benefits of $42.2 billion, leading to a net
a commuter rail model) to deliver GO Expansion. • Auto Operating Cost Savings of $1.9
return of $26 billion distributed across the region
For an incremental investment of $16.2 billion billion due to people spending less on gas,
- equal to $9,000 per household in the GTHA.
in economic terms, GO Rail will have two-way parking, and other car based travel costs.
all-day service, faster and more efficient trains, Based on a strong BCR and NPV, the
• Auto Traveller Benefits of $3.3 billion
improved stations, and an expanded Union Economic Case for GO Expansion is clearly
due to reduced congestion on major
Station. Costs are offset by a terminal value of established. From an economic viewpoint,
roadways, which allows for faster and less
$340 million at the end of the project lifecycle. transforming GO Rail into a Rapid Rail system
stressful travel for the region’ drivers.
is a crucial and high value investment that
will not only benefit travellers but also realize
8 Benefits indicated in this list do not add to economic value for the entire region.
$42.2 due to rounding. Table E.4 provides a
detailed summary of benefits and costs.
xviii
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Table E.4: Economic Case Summary

Present Value of Economic Impact

Total Lakeshore West Kitchener Barrie Stouffville Lakeshore East System-Wide
(Million 2017 CAD $)

Total Incremental Costs $16,220 $2,520 $1,930 $3,520 $2,450 $2,000 $3,800

Capital $12,220 $2,240 $960 $2,550 $1,680 $2,150 $2,640

Corridor $8,500 $1,160 $630 $2,130 $1,140 $1,540 $1,900

Fleet $3,720 $1,080 $330 $420 $540 $610 $740

Operating & Maintenance Costs $4,340 $360 $1,000 $1,020 $830 -$100 $1,230

Operating $1,860 $170 $720 $500 $440 -$130 $160

Maintenance $2,480 $190 $280 $520 $390 $30 $1,070

Terminal Value -$340 -$80 -$30 -$50 -$60 -$50 -$70

Total Benefits $42,145 $7,120 $5,590 $13,040 $4,270 $8,330 $3,795

Total User Benefits $40,700 $6,930 $5,510 $12,830 $4,190 $8,100 $3,140
Transit User (reduced travel times
$35,430 $5,720 $5,020 $11,720 $3,700 $6,690 $2,580
and increased frequencies)
Auto Operating Cost Savings $1,940 $420 $180 $460 $170 $500 $210

Auto User (Decongestion) $3,330 $790 $310 $650 $320 $910 $350

Total External Benefits $1,445 $190 $80 $210 $80 $230 $655
Reduction in Accidents Resulting
$550 $120 $50 $130 $50 $140 $60
in Death or Injury
Increased Physical Activity $565 $565

GHG Emission Reductions $220 $50 $20 $50 $20 $60 $20

Reduced Air Pollution $110 $20 $10 $30 $10 $30 $10

Economic Case Factors

Net Present Value $25,925 $4,600 $3,660 $9,520 $1,820 $6,330 N/A

Benefit Cost Ratio 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.7 1.7 4.2 N/A

xix
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

The Financial Case for GO Expansion

Overview GO Expansion Incremental Costs

The Metrolinx Financial Case assesses The business as usual scenario (the future state This incremental subsidy will allow GO Rail to:
the overall financial impact of a of GO Rail without GO Expansion) for GO Rail
• Provide over 1,000 new services a day,
proposed investment, including: will require continued capital and operating
leading to 630 thousand daily riders (in
investment. Over the next 60 years, GO Rail will
• How much will the investment cost 2031-2031 compared to 340 thousand
require $39 billion in investment ($12 billion in
to build, operate, and maintain? in a scenario without GO Expansion), an
capital, $27 billion in operating cost) without
increase of 87% from today’s ridership
• How will the investment impact GO Expansion. These investments will not
by increasing investment by 27%.
Metrolinx’s revenues? significantly expand service or support ridership
growth in off-peak or counter-peak markets. • Cover up to 110% of all operating costs with
• How will the investment be funded?
farebox revenue and up to 130% per year by
GO Expansion requires an incremental
• What is the net financial 2055. This will be achieved by implementing
investment of $16.6 billion ($12.2 billion
impact of the investment? more efficient trains and attracting more
capital and $4.4 billion operating costs) that
demand per train. Incremental revenues
will generate new ridership, benefits, and
not only cover incremental operating
revenue beyond what GO Rail would generate
NOTE: the Financial Case and Economic Case costs but will also cover $7.8 billion
under the business as usual scenario.
both assess the costs of an investment, but of GO Expansion's capital costs.
do so for different purposes. The Financial GO Expansion Revenue Impacts
Based on these financial results, GO Expansion
Case is concerned with the net impact on
Metrolinx and Provincial finances in nominal GO Expansion will attract more passengers, has a robust financial case. Investment in
(inflation adjusted) terms in order to support significantly increasing revenues generated by GO Expansion will realize a step change in
investment and financial planning. both peak and off-peak service. Without GO service while also generating new revenues
Expansion, GO Rail will generate revenues of that will allow GO Rail to be self sustaining.
The Economic Case is concerned with the overall
cost to society and is expressed in real terms
$22.3 billion. With Go Expansion, forecasted
(impact of inflation removed) to illustrate the incremental revenues are $12.3 billion, which
opportunity cost of spending on GO Expansion. will increase GO Rail’s Revenue to $34.6 billion.
As a result, the costs included in the two Financial Case Summary
cases do not directly align. For example, the
Table E.5 summarizes the key financial indicators
Economic Case could be used to assess the
question: is spending resources on GO Rail the for GO Expansion. Investment in GO Expansion
best use of these resources? While the Financial allows Metrolinx and the GTHA to provide a
Case answers the question: how much money step change in service with an incremental
is required to deliver new GO Rail service? investment of $4.5 billion (incremental costs –
Only the Financial Case should be
incremental revenue) between 2019 and 2085.
used for investment planning.

xx
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Table E.5: GO Rail Costs with and without GO Expansion

($ billion) Without GO Expansion With GO Expansion Incremental Investment

Capital Expenditure ($12) ($24.3) ($12.3)

Operating and
($36.9) ($31.4) ($4.5)
Maintenance

Total Costs ($38.8) ($55.7) ($16.8)

Revenue $22.3 $34.6 $12.3

Net Investment ($16.6) ($21.1) ($4.5)

Operating Subsidy
($14.6) $3.2 $7.8
or Surplus

Illustrative Annual Financial Case Values ($ Million)

2031-2032
($790) ($950) ($160)
Operating Costs

2031-2032 Revenues $605 $1,000 $395

2031-2035 Revenue/
76.5% 105% 240%
Operating Costs

2031-2032
Forecasted Average 340,000 635,000 295,000
Daily Ridership

xxi
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Deliverability and
Operations Case

Procurement Approach Risk Management

Overview
The procurement approach for the GO The core risks identified for this program are:
The Metrolinx Deliverability and Expansion program has been developed
• System performance risk – where the
Operations case demonstrates that the to address the following objectives to:
railway may not operate as planned due
proposed investment can be delivered
• Achieve effective transfer of design to the technical delivery approach used.
successfully and key risks can be managed.
cost and schedule risk to those who This risk is transferred to the delivery
It focuses on the following questions:
are best able to manage them. partner as they are responsible to deliver
• How will the project be the outputs specified within this FBC.
• Mobilize private sector and international
managed and governed?
expertise, where appropriate, to optimize • System Integration Risk – where individual
• What approach will be used to deliver design, delivery and operations. components of the program may not function
and procure the investment? together as intended. The procurement
• Retain control and flexibility
• What are key project risks and approach requires all major elements to be
to meet future needs.
can they be mitigated? delivered by one partner (made up of smaller
• Achieve competitive pricing. entities as needed) with ultimate responsibility
to ensure all elements are integrated.
Project Governance Metrolinx will use an Alternative Finance and
Procurement model where responsibility to • Construction Disruption Risks – where
Key decisions are subject to approval by the Design, Build, Operate, Maintain, and partially current services could be disrupted by
Metrolinx Senior Management Team, the Finance (DBFOM) will be shared with private the construction of new infrastructure for
Metrolinx Investment Panel, the Metrolinx Board, sector delivery partner. This approach is aligned GO Expansion. A performance regime has
and the Provincial Treasury Board. Metrolinx will with the overall objectives of the procurement been developed to ensure that delivery
own GO Expansion and has overall responsibility approach and transfers delivery and design partners minimize impact on existing
to deliver it efficiently and effectively, achieving risk to private sector partners. To the extent service through careful planning and
the benefits set out in this FBC within available these risks are transferred, specifications can staging in order to reduce this risk.
funds. To ensure efficient delivery, Metrolinx has be less prescriptive and more performance
developed an integrated project team including: based. This incentivizes contractors to
• Program management – monitors optimize their design and delivery approach
performance and progress of all components to maximize long term benefits and minimize
of the GO Expansion program life cycle costs. While a private partner will
operate GO Rail under the GO Expansion
• Project Control – ensures adequate monitoring program, Metrolinx retains accountability
and oversight of the budget and schedule for revenue risk, customer experience,
• Sponsorship – ensures the project connectivity between other agencies, and
realizes its intended benefits decisions on service planning and fares.

xxii
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Conclusion

Business Case Conclusions Recommendations

This FBC for GO Expansion builds upon over Based on the performance across these four
three years of study, analysis, design, and cases, Metrolinx will submit this FBC to the
investment planning to present a deliverable Minister of Transportation to inform decision
plan to transform GO Rail into a Rapid Rail making on future transportation investment.
system. This transformation is a critical
investment that will allow the GTHA to grow Next Steps
by over 40% by 2041 while providing a high
Following Metrolinx’s stage-gate process,
quality of life and remaining a competitive
the GO Expansion program will continue
place to do business. The four cases in
to progress through several next steps:
this FBC together articulate a compelling
case to invest in GO Expansion (illustrated • The program is moving forward to
in Table E.4) based on its ability to: the Province for investment decisions,
informed by this Full Business Case.
• Leverage existing corridors - the GO Rail
network already connects major population • As of November 2018, Metrolinx is
and employment centres across the GTHA. conducting a Request for Qualifications
GO Expansion adds more and faster service (RFQ) process to shortlist potential
to these existing corridors. This allows partner consortiums to deliver
passengers to access more of the region with the GO Expansion program.
shorter and more reliable travel times. This • Pending approval by the Province and
time saved generates significant economic the successful shortlisting of potential
benefits for the region and its people. partners, Metrolinx will launch a Request
• Break the bottleneck – more rail capacity for Proposal (RFP) for GO Expansion.
and improved connectivity to Downtown • Metrolinx will develop a benefits
Toronto will unlock economic development realization plan to ensure that the benefits
potential by allowing more people to described in this FBC are protected
commute to the core each day. through the procurement process.
• Unlock development - expanded off-peak • If significant changes are made to the
and counter-peak services will make Urban program during procurement, an updated
Growth Centres across the region more Full Business Case will be produced.
attractive places to live, work, and invest.
This will catalyze regional development in line • Once the program is in service, Metrolinx
with plans and policies across the region. will produce a Post In-Service Business
Case to review the actual costs and
performance of the program.
xxiii
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Table E.5: The Case for Investment in GO Expansion

Case Case Evidence Conclusions

GO Expansion will realize four types of benefits: These strategic benefits illustrate how GO Expansion
• Transportation Benefits – faster journey times and higher frequencies will directly address the problem statement:
will double annual ridership to over 200 million (daily trips exceeding • It will provide new transportation choices that can accommodate
Strategic Case 630 thousand, with less congestion for drivers due to 165,000 fewer significant population growth and help tackle congestion.
car trips a day) while ensuring the network has reduced subsidy
• It will provide the foundations of a region wide Frequent
requirements and can accommodate demand growth past 2055.
Rapid Transit Network (as described in the 2041 RTP).
• Quality of Life Benefits – connecting nearly 30% of the GTHA’s population
• It will support the GTHA in maintaining a high
with fast, frequent, and reliable services while also supporting a healthier
quality of life, prosperous economy, and protected
region by adding 15 million walk and cycle trips to stations a year.
environment as its population grows by over 40%.
• Economic Prosperity – reducing congestion and saving commuters up to 10
Based on this evidence, the Strategic Case for GO Rail
minutes a trip while also creating 8,300 annual job equivalents over twelve
justifies it as an investment to achieve regional policy
years in construction and supply-chain industries and decreasing journey times
and realize the benefits of rapid growth.
by up an average of 25 minutes between Urban Growth Centres in the off-peak.
• Protected Environment – reducing emissions per rail trip by 70% and total
Greenhouse Gas emissions by 13.5 megatonnes, while also reducing
Criteria Air Contaminants and other pollutants that impact human health.

The Economic Case for GO Expansion assessed a range of benefits and costs: GO Expansion’s benefits significantly exceed costs:
• Incremental economic costs of $16.2 billion over the investment lifecycle • GO Expansion realizes $42.1 billion in benefits by investing $16.2
• Economic benefits of 42.2 billion, including: billion resulting in a BCR of 2.6 to 1 - this means for every $1.00
Economic Case invested in GO Expansion, the region will benefit by $2.60.
• Transit user benefits of $35.4 billion
• Road user benefits of $3.3 billion • This is an NPV of $25.9 billion, meaning a benefit
of nearly $9,000 per household.
• Auto Operating Cost savings of $1.9 billion
• Accident reduction and health improvement benefits of $1.1 billion Based on this evidence, the Economic Case justifies investment GO
Expansion as means to realize economic benefits in Ontario.
• Emission reduction benefits of $330 million

• Without GO Expansion, GO Rail will require a net investment (capital and GO Expansion’s incremental investment of $4.5 billion will allow Metrolinx
operating costs minus revenues) of $16.6 billion over the next 60 years. to transform GO Rail from a commuter system into a world class Rapid Rail
• GO Expansion requires a net investment of $21 billion in the same time period, system that doubles ridership, saves passengers 10 minutes per trip, and
Financial Case meaning the net incremental investment for GO expansion is $4.5 billion. realizes significant benefits while reducing the need for operating subsidy.
• In addition the incremental revenue generated by GO Expansion Based on this evidence, the Financial Case suggests that GO Expansion is
could allow GO Rail to run without subsidy beyond 2031 and a beneficial investment with a manageable level of required investment.
achieve an revenue/operating ratio of 130% by 2055.

Metrolinx has conducted extensive project development, environmental GO Expansion has undergone significant development – from a
assessment, and operational planning projects to ensure GO technical design perspective as well as from a project governance and
Expansion is deliverable. In addition, an innovative P3 model will procurement practice that draws from international best practice.
Deliverability minimize risk and support delivery on time and budget.
and Operations Based on this evidence, the Deliverability and Operations Case,
Case is found to demonstrate GO Expansion is readily deliverable.

xxiv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

xxv
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

xxvi
Introduction
1
1
How is the chapter
structured?

Section Content

Provides a high level background on the topic of this

Background
Full Business Case – expanding the GO Rail Network

Provides a brief summary of the proposed investment,

What is GO Expansion?
which is described in more detail in Chapter 3

Describes why a Full Business Case is prepared and

What is a Full Business Case? what role it plays in the project lifecycle

Full Business Case Structure Provides an overview of the remaining seven chapters in the document

Acknowledgments Recognizes key contributors to this Full Business Case

2
 CHAPTER 1 :Introduction

Background

The GO service area, including the Greater This document is the Full Business Case (FBC)
Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) together for GO Expansin, which is a transformational
with Niagara, Kitchener, and Barrie, is one investment that will improve the GO Rail network
of the fastest growing city-regions in North to ensure that the region remains one of the most
America. Cities across this region are known desirable places in the world to live and work.
for their livability and prosperity, while Toronto
What is GO Expansion?
has become an international economic and
cultural centre. By 2041 the communities across The GO Expansion program will transform the
this region will be home to over 12 million existing GO Rail network into a world class rail
people and 5 million jobs. With this growth, system. It is part of over $30 billion in ongoing
daily travel will grow by more than 50%.1 provincial investment in public transit that
includes Light Rail Transit (LRT), subway, and
Regional plans and policies aim to guide this
bus projects across the GTHA. Upon delivery,
rapid growth and harness its potential benefits:
the GO Expansion program will transform GO
improved livability and economic opportunities.
Rail from a commuter focused rail system to the
However, with rapid growth comes potential
backbone of the GTHA’s Frequent Rapid Transit
challenges. As the region grows, the mobility
Network. These improvements will expand
needs of its people will continue to increase
the GO Rail network to new markets which will
– and evolve – which will put ever increasing
enable seamless travel across the region.
demands on the existing system. This has
consequences such as traffic congestion that
affects economic productivity, impacts the
environment and people’s health, reduces
quality of life, and limits urban development.
Developing a transportation network that
can serve future demands is essential
to serve iminent needs and manage
growth to enable a high quality of life
and continued economic prosperity.

1 Ontario Population Projections Update: https://www.fin.

gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/

3
The GO Expansion program will provide a range of
improvements across the GTHA:

More Service Trains at Faster More An Expanded

All-Day in Both least every and More Accessible Union Station
Service Directions 15 minutes Efficient Fleet Stations

Over 6,000 services Trains that are up to Improvements to Capacity for train
per week 30% faster and up stations access and passenger
to 50% cheaper per and boarding movements for the
train km to operate and alighting rest of the century

4
 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 1.1: Mapping the evolution of GO Expansion

Ambition for improved rail GO Expansion Takes Shape (2014 — 2016)

The rail improvement projects included (2008 — 2012)
• Regional Express Rail Initial Business Case demonstrates a
in the GO Expansion program have strong case for electrified two-way, all-day service (2015)
Studies and plans articulate the potential
been refined over ten years of planning of different rail improvements. • Plans and priorities to implement improved
and study – including the GO 2020 service on the five GO-owned corridors
Strategic Plan, the 2008 Regional Key Documents:
• Regional Express Rail program integrated with State of
Transportation Plan (the Big Move), and • GO 2020 Good Repair and Optimization and Expansion programs
the GO Electrification Study. Significant • Regional Transportation • Initial Business Cases prepared for possible new stations
rail improvements were also included in Plan - the Big Move • UP Express opens, which demonstrates significant demand
the 2041 Regional Transportation Plan • GO Electrification Study for two-way, all-day fast and frequent rail in Toronto
(RTP), which defines the policies and • Express Rail Study • Early enabling works underway on five corridors
plans for transportation in the GTHA. including Davenport Diamond bridge and 401 tunnel
Elements of these plans were included • GO Rail Electrification Reference Design completed
in the 2014 Provincial Budget, which
first announced the creation of a two-
way all-day electrified service across
the GO Rail network as a government
priority. This announcement launched
the development of the GO Expansion
program, which was formally defined in Commitment to GO Expansion Optimization (2017 — 2018)
the 2015 Initial Business Case (IBC) for invest in GO Rail
RER and the 2015 Provincial Budget. (2012 — 2014) • Metrolinx establishes Business Case Guidance, a
Sponsor Office, and stage gate process to advance
This document is the transportation projects and realize their benefits
• Georgetown South
next step in developing and project — delivered • Decision to procure On-Corridor works and services as a
delivering the GO Expansion • East Rail Maintenance
single Design-Build-Finance-Operate-Maintain (DBFOM)
program for 2025. with a Request for Qualifications (RFQ) issued in 2018
Facility — delivered
• Preliminary Design Business Cases for New
• Union Station
GO Rail stations completed
Resignalling — in
progress • Integrated Metrolinx – Infrastructure Ontario
procurement team established
• Route and corridor studies optimize infrastructure and service plans
• 2041 Regional Transportation Plan published with expanded
Note - the program previously referred to rail as a key component of the future transportation network
as Regional Express Rail (RER) is now • Technical concepts developed and an Initial Business Case prepared
referred to as GO Expansion, which will for migration to level boarding, with step-free access onto trains
transform GO Rail from a commuter rail • Full Business Case for GO Expansion (this
document) published in November 2018
network into a Rapid Rail Network.
• Interim service improvements bring more
frequent all-day diesel services
• Bidders (delivery partners) shortlisted for GO Expansion delivery

5
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 1.2:
Illustration of the Business 1 Strategic Planning Initial Business Case
Case and Stage Gate Identifies problem statement and defines
• The Initial Business
Process benefits that the investment needs to deliver.
Case compares
investment options
and selects a
preferred option for
What is a Full Business Case? 2 Feasibility and Options Analysis
further refinement
and design.
Evaluates options and determines a preferred
Metrolinx follows a seven stage lifecycle Preliminary Design option. Typical point at which funding for
• This Business Case
(outlined in Figure 1.2) to plan and deliver Business Case planning and preliminary design is secured. is typically used
to secure funding
transportation network investments. • The Preliminary from the Province
Throughout this lifecycle, Business Cases Design Business for planning and
are completed to define the rationale and Case takes the preliminary design.
recommended
requirements for delivering an investment.
The FBC is prepared as part of this lifecycle,
option of the Initial 3 Preliminary Design
Refines preferred option, further clarifying
Business Case and
and informs decision makers on whether and reviews different scope and cost. Typical point at which funding
how an investment should be procured. approaches for procurement and construction is secured.
to refine and GO Expansion
Since the publication of the IBC in 2015 there has optimize it. is at this stage
been significant work undertaken in refining and • This Business Case
developing options, and in seeking to optimize is typically used • Full Business Case
the GO Expansion program improvements. The to secure funding
from the Province
4 Design & Procurement Preparation
Develops investment framework, designs confirms a specific
FBC builds upon the work undertaken in the IBC, and requirements used as the basis option (including
for procurement benefits realization,
drawing upon best available evidence, updated for procurement.
and construction. financing, and
forecasts and revised costs and designs. As a delivery plans) for
result, there is some variation between the IBC procurement.
and this FBC based on program evolution.
Full Business Case Structure Full Business Case 5 Procurement
Procures the investment.
• Updated if
The structure of the FBC is outlined in Figure 1.3. required.
Post In-Service
Business Case
The Post In-Service
Construction, Commissioning & Delivery
6 Delivers and commissions the investment.
Business Case reviews
the actual costs and
performance of the
investment after the
asset has gone into
service. This Business

7 In Service
After the asset is in service, monitors the
Case provides
lessons learned and
benefits and costs to identify opportunities opportunities to
for enhancements and lessons learned. enhance the services
being provided.

6
 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 1.3: The Business Case structure

Chapter 1 Introduction Provides an overview of the Business Case.

Chapter 2 Context
Defines the key problem within the GTHA's transportation network that the GO Expansion program is trying to solve.

Chapter 3 GO Expansion Program

Defines the GO Expansion Reference Concept used within this FBC to estimate
the potential costs, benefits, and impacts of the program.

Strategic Case Economic Case

How does the investment achieve What is the investment's
strategic goals and objectives? overall value to society?
• Determines the value of addressing a • Assesses the economic costs and
Chapter problem or opportunity based on regional Chapter benefits of the proposal to individuals
development goals, plans, and policies and society as a whole, and spans the
4 5 entire period covered by the investment
• Options are evaluated against objectives that
tell a clear narrative of how the investment • Uses standard economic
can address the problem or opportunity analysis to detail benefits and
• Establishes ‘why’ an investment should costs in economic terms
be pursued from a strategic lens • Establishes ‘what the benefit to
society’ is in economic terms

Financial Case Deliverability and Operations Case

What are the financial implications of What risks and requirements must
delivering the investment? be considered for delivering and
operating the investment?
• Assesses the overall financial
impact of the proposal, its funding • Provides evidence on the overall
Chapter arrangements and technical accounting Chapter viability of one or more options for
6 issues and financial value for money 7 addressing the problem/opportunity
• Focuses on capital, operating, and revenue • May consider procurement strategies,
impacts directly related to the investment deliverability risks, operating plans
and indirectly resulting from the investment and risks, or organizational risks
• Establishes ‘how much the investment • Establishes ‘what is required to deliver
will cost’ in financial terms and operate’ the investment

Chapter 8 Conclusion and Recommendations

Provides a summary of the core findings from each chapter along with
recommendations for future investment development.

7
Context
2
8
Overview How is the chapter structured?
The Context Chapter describes the rationale for Section Content
investing in GO Expansion by articulating the central problem it
will address, what will happen if the problem is not addressed, and
why investment in GO Rail is the most effective way to address it . A summary of key issues that shape
The Need for Regional
the need for transportation investment,
Transportation
2.1 Investment: Managing
including a review of existing and
future population, employment,
Growth and Congestion
and transportation demand.

A clear articulation of the problem

2.2 Problem Statement that the proposed investment
in this FBC will address.

The Opportunity: A description of the general benefits

2.3 Invest in Rail to that can be realized by investing in rail
Accommodate Growth to address the problem statement.

The Solution: Transform A summary of the proposed

2.4 GO Rail into an investment (Rapid Rail) and why
Rapid Rail System it should be considered.

9
GO RAIL EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Chapter Summary Problem and Opportunity:

Investing in Regional Transportation to Enable Growth and Prosperity
THE GREATER TORONTO AND
HAMILTON AREA (GTHA) IS New rapid transit infrastructure is being Existing infrastructure
UNDERGOING RAPID GROWTH planned and delivered to provide travellers will not be able to
with fast and reliable travel choices. accommodate this growth.
Regional plans and policies seek
to ensure the region maintains a
These projects will support regional growth Much of the network is already congested today –
high quality of life, competitive but do not provide increased capacity into
and productive economy, and demand for travel exceeds the network’s capacity.
Downtown Toronto or high speed options for
protected environment as it grows. Today congestion can Congestion could
longer distance trips across the region.
increase travel times for cost the region's
drivers by as much as economy up to

46% 41% 120% $15 billion

annually in lost
GTHA GTHA
productivity by 2031.
POPULATION EMPLOYMENT
GROWTH GROWTH EXPRESSWAYS
EXISTING RAPID TRANSIT
10,000,000 2018 As the region grows,
IN-DELIVERY RAPID TRANSIT
8,000,000 2041 so will demand.
GO RAIL NETWORK
6,000,000
Daily peak trips will grow
4,000,000 from 8 million to over
12 million by 2041 —
2,000,000
this is an increase of over
0
POPULATION EMPLOYMENT 50%
40% Investment in the
of all jobs will be in regional transportation
Toronto, making it the
largest employment centre system is required
and engine of economic
growth in the region.
to keep the GTHA
moving and to realize
potential growth.

10
 Outcomes QUALITY OF

CHAPTER 2 :CONTEXT

Proposed Solution: WHAT IS Today the GO Rail system is a commuter rail system that largely serves trips in the peak period to
Transform GO Rail into RAPID RAIL? and from the core. Investment QUALITY
will transformOF LIFE
GO Rail into a Rapid Rail support a growing region.TRANSPORTA
BENEFITS
a Rapid Rail System
Rapid Rail systems typically run fast, frequent, reliable, and electrified rail services.
These systems have been developed in over 60 cities, including the
world’s most prosperous and livable city-regions.
WHY CONSIDER RAIL?
Outcomes TRANSFORMING GO RAIL INTO A RAPID RAIL SYSTEM MEANS:
A rail based investment is proposed to
expand travel choices across the region and TRANSPORTATION
FASTER AND MORE TWO-WAY, A TRAIN EVERY
to Downtown Toronto in order to manage EFFICIENT FLEET BENEFITS
ALL-DAY SERVICE 15 MINUTES, OR BETTER
congestion and support high quality New trains will realize travel Whether travellers travel for work
Outcomes ECONOMIC
This means travellers can turn up
of life, economic competitiveness, and time savings for customers and or for recreation, they can access and go at their station and thatPROSPERITY
sustainable environment because GO Rail: reduced costs to operate. more of the region on GO Rail. the system will provide capacity
QUAL ITY OF L IF E to accommodate growth in
• OFFERS COMPETITIVE TRAVEL TIMES
travel demand into the future.
more than a quarter of trips into Downtown
Toronto from outside the City of Toronto already RESULTING IN:
use GO Rail because it saves travellers time ENVIRONME
ECONOMIC QUALITY OF LIFE SUSTAINABI
• COVERS THE REGION
spanning the entire GTHA and beyond with over Travellers Benefit
PROSPERITY
Increased Productivity Higher Quality of Life Protected Environment
400km of track, GO Rail allows customers
to travel across the GTHA.
TRANSPORTATION
Travellers on GO Rail will A growing population People have more time The transportation
saveBENEF
time andITS
money, has better access to a to spend with their network will use less
• PROVIDES READILY EXPANDABLE CAPACITY while travellers using growing job market families and have greater energy and produce
each train can carry 2,000 travellers, which is more automobiles benefit from access to the region fewer emissions
than a new lane of highway can carry in an hour. ENVIRONMENTAL
reduced congestion
SU STAINABILITY TRANSPORTATION
• GENERATES REVENUE THAT CAN COVER SOME
OR ALL OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS BENEFITS
a full GO Rail train in the peak period
does not require operating subsidy.

ECONOMIC
PROSP ERITY

WHY NOT USE ECONOMIC

OTHER MODES TO PROSPERITY
ENV IRONMENTAL
SOLVE THIS PROBLEM? HIGHWAYS SUBWAYS AND RAPID TRANSIT
SU STAINABIL ITY
The highway network provides six lanes into the core on Line 1 and Line 2 play a critical role in the GTHA’s
Other modes also play a critical role in the the Don Valley Parkway and six lanes on the Gardiner transportation network. They ensure travellers can
GTHA transportation network and are being Expressway. These highways are already congested access the core and much of the City of Toronto.
invested in through other projects and and do not have capacity for further growth. ENVIRONMENTAL
New rapid transit to Downtown Toronto is being
programs – however, they are not optimal Both highways cannot realistically be expanded further – explored as a means toSUSTAINABILITY
reduce crowding and expand
solutions to provide more capacity for long the Gardiner runs alongside new urban developments accessibility – however, using subways or rapid transit
distance travel and travel to Downtown to connect the rest of the GTHA to Downtown Toronto
Investment in highways upstream will not mitigate
Toronto from the rest of the GTHA. the Downtown Toronto bottleneck, while investment
will be expensive, while the railway network already
provides 400km of coverage across the GTHA.
in rail can decongest highways reducing travel
times for people who continue to drive.
11
 Outcomes
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Q
Q UA
UA L
2.1 The Need for Regional Transportation II TY
TY OF
OF L
L II F
L Investment: FEE
Managing Growth and Congestion
Q UA L I TY OF L I F E
Figure 2.1: Applying the 2041 Regional Transportation Plan Vision in the
Vision for Transportation GO Expansion Full Business Case Strategic and Policy Considerations for Transportation Investment
in the GTHA in 2041
The 2041 Regional Transportation Plan Outcomes
for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton
Safe, Reliable, and Convenient Connections
Area (The RTP) is the blueprint for
creating an integrated, multi-modal If the transportation system is to support a high quality of life, prosperous
regional transportation system that will
T
T RA
RA N
NSSP P ORTAT
ORTAT II O
ONN
economy, and protected environment it must provide a range of travel
choices that evolve to meet changing customer needs and expand over
serve the needs of residents, businesses, B
B EN
EN E
EFF II T
TSS
time based on population growth and urban development.
and institutions. The infrastructure,
services, and policies in the plan will
keep GTHA and its people moving T RA N S P ORTAT I ON
High Quality of Life
as the region grows and evolves. B E N EF I T S
The RTP sets out a vision for Q UA LisIaTY
Transportation OF L IofFquality
key determinant E of life – the harder it is to move
from where people are to where they want to go, the lower their quality of life
transportation in the GTHA:
is. Transportation that augments quality of life aims to expand the range of
“The GTHA will have a sustainable places people can access while also improving journey experience (reduced
transportation system that is aligned travel time and stress) and minimizing risks to health and safety.
with land use, and supports healthy and
complete communities. The system will
provide safe, convenient and reliable Prosperous Economy
connections; and support a high quality
of life, a prosperous and competitive ECON
ECON
Transportation OM
OM
can II C
enable
C regional prosperity. The region prospers
when people have a wide range of job choices, employers can
economy, and a protected environment”
drawP ROS
Pfrom
ROS P
P ERI
a broadERI TY
TY labour pool, goods can be moved
and talented
Four key elements included in this vision T RAand
efficiently, N Sfirms
P ORTAT I O N Transportation that supports
invest and innovate.
were adapted to create a strategic E CON OM I C will offer reliable and fast journey opportunities from
prosperity
framework to assess challenges and homeB EN E Fhome
to work, I T Sto businesses, and between businesses.
opportunities in Metrolinx Business P ROS P E RI TY
Cases (shown in Figure 2.1).

EN VEnvironment
Protected I RON M EN TA L
EN V I RON M EN TA L
Transportation networks require energy and resources to operate and they also
S
SU U STA
produce STA
pollutionII N
N A
AaB
— as II L
L IIthey
Bresult TY
TYhave an impact on regional sustainability.
Transportation investments that increase sustainability aim to reduce the
E N V I RON M E Nrequired
resources TA L and the negative impacts — like pollution — per trip taken.
S U STA I N A B I L I TY
12
 CHAPTER 2 :CONTEXT

2.2 Problem Statement:

the Current Transportation Network Cannot
Meet the Needs of a Growing Region

The role of the problem statement in a Business Case is to describe a key challenge related
to the successful realization of the RTP vision that can be addressed through the delivery
of a new investment – including new transportation services, policies, or infrastructure.

PROBLEM STATEMENT

If the GO Service Area is to continue to grow, prosper, and function as a

single integrated region, it needs fast, frequent, efficient, and high capacity
regional transportation that provides reliable mobility between its key
population and employment centres and Downtown Toronto.

Without investment, the regional transportation system will not meet this need and will
reduce the region's attractiveness as a place to live and do business in, because:

DEMAND WILL EXCEED THE CAPACITY THE TRANSIT NETWORK IS

OF THE NETWORK LEADING TO INCOMPLETE AND DOES NOT
INCREASED CONGESTION SERVE ALL TRAVELLERS
Today the regional road network is congested in While advances have been made to provide
the peak period and is increasingly congested a range of mobility choices for travellers
throughout the day. This leads to decreased across the region, many areas, including those
travel times and journey time reliability. GO targeted as centres for regional development,
Rail and Rapid Transit services are crowded do not have access to reliable all-day regional
in the peak, and there is limited capacity transit services. This means travellers may
to accommodate new passengers. As the have to deal with congested roadways
population grows, it is expected that travel and further contribute to cognestion.
demand will also increase leading to further
congestion that will cost the region up to $15
billion annually in lost productivity by 2031.1

2 Metrolinx Cost of Congestion

(http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/costsofcongestion/ISP_08-015_Cost_of_Congestion_report_1128081.pdf)

13
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

What happens if the problem Figure 2.2: What happens if the problem is not addressed?
is not addressed?
Providing improved connectivity across the
region is a key enabler for high quality of The transportation network will not manage the level
life, economic prosperity, and sustainability. of growth and quality of life will decrease
The current regional network will not
accommodate these social outcomes in • As the region’s population increases by nearly 42%,
the long term – Figure 2.2 outlines the existing transit and highways will see increased congestion
impact of not addressing this problem. leading to lower reliability and travel speeds
• As a result people will spend more time travelling
and have fewer mobility choices

The transportation network will become a barrier to further

economic and regional development in the GTHA
• Increased congestion will make it harder for people
and businesses to access economic activities
• This will impact the attractiveness of the GTHA for
businesses in which to work, invest, and innovate
• Population and employment growth will be constrained,
especially in the downtown core, which may eventually
deter investment and regional development

The transportation network will be more resource

and pollution intensive
• Increased population will lead to increasing demands for mobility,
which in turn will mean more fuel and energy used every day
• If trips are made on vehicles with lower energy efficiency,
the transportation system will produce more pollution
that impacts human health and the environment

14
 CHAPTER 2 :CONTEXT

Figure 2.3: Transportation Markets in the GO Service Area

Problem Deep Dive —

Understanding the Need for Investment
This subsection provides a summary of key
issues that shape or drive this problem:
• The GTHA and the GO Service Area3 will
see significant population and employment
growth in the next twenty years.
• The transportation network is already
congested and will be unable to
provide quality mobility choices to the
region’s travellers because of increased
population and employment will lead
to travel demand that will exceed the
network’s capacity and coverage.
This analysis divides population,
employment, and travel into markets
as illustrated in Figure 2.3:
• Downtown Toronto
• Rest of Toronto
• Rest of the GTHA
• Other Communities Served by GO Transit

Note – this FBC and its problem statement are focused on a specific set of transportation
issues related to accommodating population and employment growth in the GTHA with
high quality fast, reliable, and frequent services. The 2041 Regional Transportation Plan
and the supporting background papers created during its development provide an in-
depth review of a broader range of key issues that shape transportation in the GTHA.
3 The GO Service Area refers to all communities
that have access to GO Transit services.

15
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 2.4: Forecasted Population Growth by 2041 in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

The GTHA is Expected to See Significant

Growth in the Coming Decades

Population Growth
The GTHA is home to over seven million people
and is rapidly growing. Each year, 110,000
new residents move to the region and current
forecasts indicate the region’s population will
exceed ten million by 2041 (a growth of 41%
from 2016), making it one of North America’s
largest and fastest growing city-regions. The
GTHA extends over 100km from Hamilton to
Oshawa and is a provincial and national centre
of cultural, educational, and economic activity.
Because the GTHA is a major centre, travellers
are also drawn in from as far as Barrie, Niagara,
and Kitchener, which are currently served by
GO Transit services. This expanded area is
referred to as the “GO Service Area” in this
FBC, and is home to nearly 8 million people
today may be as large as 12.4 million people
by 2041. This growth is illustrated in Figure 2.4

Source: Ministry of Finance Population Forecasts for Ontario.

16
 CHAPTER 2 :CONTEXT

Figure 2.5: Employment Growth in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area from 2011 to 2041

Employment Growth and

Economic Development
The economy of the GTHA is crucial to
both Ontario and Canada. As the GTHA’s
economy continues to evolve, ensuring the
transportation network can support diverse and
innovative industries will be a key contributor
to regional prosperity. Figure 2.5 illustrates
employment growth forecasts for the GTHA.
The number of jobs in the GTHA is expected to
grow by 45% between 2011 and 2041, from 3.3
million to 4.8 million (an increase of 45% or 1.5
million). The majority of employment growth will
occur in the Rest of the GTHA, where job growth
will exceed one million by 2041. This represents
nearly 73% of all forecast employment growth in
the region. Of this growth, 36% will occur within
2 km of a GO Rail station, which highlights how
GO Rail can play a crucial role in connecting
emerging employment centres across the region.
Employment in the Rest of Toronto will increase
by 195,000, which represents 13% of GTHA
wide growth. This increase will be distributed
across Toronto, however nearly 42% of it
will be within 2 km of a GO Rail station.
While employment growth will be distributed
across the region. 40% of all jobs are expected
to be located in Downtown Toronto by 2041.
Today many jobs in Downtown Toronto are
filled by commuters from across the GTHA.
This is expected to continue into the future,
which will put further demands on an already
congested transportation network.
Source: Employment Forecasts in the Greater Golden Horseshoe Model v4

17
 100%
Various Data Inputs v0.4.xlsx [Mode Splits for Report]
90%
80%
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE 70%
60% All Day Mode Split By Markets
50%
100%
40% 2.6: GTHA Travel Market Analysis
Figure
90%
30%
80%
20% All Day Mode
All-Day Mode Split BybyMarkets
Split Markets
70%
10%
60%
100%
100%
0%
50%
90%
40% 905 to PD1 PD1 to 905 905 to Rest of Rest of Toronto to Within Toronto 905 to 905
80%
80%
30%
70% Toronto 905
20%
60%
60% All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day
10%
50%
0%
40%
40%
Impact of Population and Employment 30%
GO Rail GO Bus Transit Other Auto
905 to PD1 PD1 to 905 905 to Rest of Rest of Toronto to Within Toronto 905 to 905
Growth on the Transportation Network 20%
20% Toronto 905
10%
0%
0% All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day
Travel Behaviour Today 905 to PD1 PD1 to 905
AM Peak Mode SplitRest
905 to Rest of
ByofMarkets
Toronto to Within Toronto 905 to 905
Market GO Rail GO Bus
Toronto Transit Other
905 Auto
Travel behaviour in the GTHA has been 100%
Size
90%
analyzed using Transportation Tomorrow 80% All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day
70%
Survey data (2016). Over the course of an
60% AM Peak
GO Rail Mode
GO
AM Peak
Bus
Mode Split
Transit ByOther
Split byMarkets
Auto
Markets
average day, nearly three quarters of trips 50%
100%
100%
40%
within the GTHA are undertaken by auto, 90%
30%
followed by 14% on transit, 12% on other 80%
80%
20% AM Peak Mode Split By Markets
70%
10%
modes including walking/cycling and 1% on 60%
60%
100%
0%
GO Rail. Travel can further be broken down by 50%
90% 905 to PD1 PD1 to 905 905 to Rest of Rest of Toronto to Within Toronto 905 to 905
40%
40%
80%
travel market and time of travel, as illustrated 30%
70%
Toronto 905
in Figure 2.6. These markets include: 20%
20%
60% All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day
10%
50%
• Trips to Downtown Toronto from the Rest 0%
0%
40% GO Rail GO Bus Transit Other Auto
30% 905 to PD1 PD1 to 905 905 to Rest of Rest of Toronto to Within Toronto 905 to 905
of the GTHA — representing 4% of the Market
20% Toronto 905
* very small
peak demand and 2% of all-day demand. Size
10%
0% All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day
• Trips to the Rest of Toronto to/from the 905 to PD1 PD1 to 905 905 to Rest of Rest of Toronto to Within Toronto 905 to 905
Rest of the GTHA — representing 8% of Off-Peak
GO Rail Mode
GO Bus
Toronto Split
Transit ByOther
Markets
905 Auto
Off-Peak Mode Split by Markets
peak demand and 6% of all-day demand. 100%
100% All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day
90%
• Trips inside Toronto — representing 34% of 80%
80% GO Rail GO Bus Transit Other Auto
70%
peak demand and 34% of all-day demand. 60%
60% Off-Peak Mode Split By Markets
50%
• Trips within and between communities in 100%
40%
40%
90%
30%
the Rest of the GTHA — representing 48% of 80% Off-Peak Mode Split By Markets
20%
20%
peak demand and 50% of all-day demand. 70%
10%
60%
100%
0%
0%
Time periods in this analysis include: 50%
90%
40% 905 to PD1 PD1 to 905 905 to Rest of Rest of Toronto to Within Toronto 905 to 905
80%
Market
30%
70% * very small * very small Toronto 905
• Peak Period Trips (typically 6:00- Size
20%
60% All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day
9:00 am in the morning and 3:00- 10%
50%
7:00 pm in the evening). 0%
40%
Rest of the GTHA DowntownGO Rail
Rest ofGOtheBusGTHATransit Other
Rest of Auto Within Toronto
Toronto 905 to 905
30% 905 to PD1 PD1 to 905 905 to Rest of Rest of Toronto to Within Toronto 905 to 905
20% to Downtown Toronto to to Rest of to Rest of the
• Off-peak trips (early morning, Toronto 905
10% Toronto Rest of Toronto GTHA
midday, and evenings). 0% All Day theAllGTHA
Day All Day All Day All Day All Day
905 to PD1 PD1 to 905 905 to Rest of Rest of Toronto to Within Toronto 905 to 905
GO Rail GO Bus
Toronto Transit Other
905 Auto
 Auto  GO Rail  Transit  Other  GO Bus = 500,000 trips
All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day All Day
18
GO Rail GO Bus Transit Other Auto
Figure 2.6 illustrates that:
• GO Rail is the dominant mode of travel in the
peak period between Downtown Toronto and
the Rest of the GTHA. Each day over 40% of
commuters use GO Rail to access Downtown
Toronto. Over 60% of all trips to Downtown
Toronto are made on municipal transit and
GO Transit. In this market, the auto mode
share increases in the off peak and GO Rail’s
mode share decreases because highways
are less congested (allowing faster travel
times) and GO Rail’s has lower frequency
service or no service on some lines.
• Peak travel within Toronto is split
between auto and transit, with GO Rail
playing a minor role – this is due to the
limited frequencies and two-way service
in the city, which positions auto and
transit as preferred travel options.
• The other travel markets are auto dominated
– largely because transit options are
unavailable or do not compete due to
higher travel times or lower frequencies.
The Impact of Growth on Travel Demand
Increased population and employment puts
pressure on the transportation network,
contributing to increased congestion. Travel
demand will increase by nearly 50% across the
GTHA (see Figure 2.7). Presently, daily trips in
Toronto are about 75% as many as daily trips
outside of Toronto (3.1 million compared to
4.1 million). However, in the future, there will
nearly be twice as many daily trips outside
of Toronto compared to trips in Toronto.

Figure 2.7: Total peak period travel demand by

travel market, 2011 and 2041
TOTAL PEAK PERIOD* TRIPS
(MILLIONS)

14

3239+ 1216+ 4273+

12

10

Within
Toronto

2011
2041
Source: Metrolinx
Between
Toronto
and the
rest of the
GTHA
Within
GTHA
outside
Toronto
812+
GTHA
Total
CHAPTER 2 :Context

Figure 2.7 suggests that demand will continue to

increase in the GTHA alongside population and
employment growth, with significant increases
in demand between cities across the GTHA. A
significant amount of this demand growth will
be outside of Toronto – where most travel is
already conducted on the automobile (as noted
in Figure 2.5). These “regional trips” (medium
to longer distance trips that cross boundaries)
reflect the changing economic and demographic
landscape of the region and emphasize the
need for regional transportation alternatives
beyond the existing congested network.
Can the GTHA Transportation Network
Accommodate this Growth?
The regional transportation network in the
GTHA includes multiple transportation modes
(described at a high level in Table 2.1). Much
of the GTHA’s transportation infrastructure
used for medium to longer distance travel
(10+ km) and regional travel was built half a
century ago and is now operating at capacity.
This infrastructure includes: the 400 series
highways, the Gardiner Expressway, the Don
Valley Parkway, the TTC subway network, and the
GO Rail network, which initially began as a pilot
in 1967. Today the highways, such as Highway
401, and subways are congested, not just in
peak hours but increasingly throughout the day.

19
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Table 2.1: High Level Review of Existing GTHA Transportation Network Modes for Medium and Long Distance Travel

Description Key Considerations

GO Rail and • GO Rail spans the GTHA and beyond with over • The GO rail network primarily serves the Downtown Toronto commuter market,
GO Bus 400 km of service routes and makes use of historic with trains bringing commuters to the downtown on weekday mornings and
railways that shaped the growth of the region. As a then them to the suburbs in the evenings. Off-peak rail service is provided on the
result it covers a significant amount of the GTHA and Lakeshore corridors and was expanded to a half-hourly frequency in 2013.
connects to many municipalities across the region.
• The majority of service is in peak periods and is peak directional due to availability of infrastructure.
• The GO Bus network provides connectivity between
communities not served by a direct rail connection • Currently GO Rail demand reaches and can exceed 80% of capacity in the peak
and has seen gradual expansion and offers – additional trains can be provided to meet demand; however, Union Station’s
some off-peak and counter peak services.. passenger capacity is a limitation of providing more peak train service.
• Further expansion is required to improve speed, service availability, and quality of service such that
rail can compete with the automobile and integrate with the broader regional transportation network.
• Many passengers may choose GO Rail due to congested highways and high
cost of parking or lack of parking availability in the Downtown core
• Require first and last mile connections for most trips

Automobile • Automobiles can access all of the region using the • The auto network is congested in the peak period, which leads to increased
region’s hierarchical road network. The 400 series travel times (an average 30% increase across the region).
highways provide long distance travel options while
arterial roads within cities serve medium distance trips. • There are only six lanes into Downtown Toronto on the Gardiner Express Way and Don
Valley Parkway – this means there is no capacity to accommodate new demand.
• While some highways could be expanded, the two key highways that serve. Downtown Toronto
cannot readily be expanded further (add more lanes) without significant property impacts.
• For example, much of the Gardiner Expressway runs adjacent to
new residential and commercial developments.

Rapid • The region’s rapid transit systems include subways and • High capacity rapid transit is an effective mode to serve medium-long distance trips, but
Transit Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems operated largely to serve is not a viable tool to provide regional travel (regional transportation requires wider stop
medium-long distance trips within one service area. spacing to provide competitive travel times with automobiles and other modes while rapid
transit relies on medium stop spacing to attract demand with improved accessibility).
• These services provide frequent two-way all-day
service and primarily operate in their own right of • The TTC Subway system is crowded and at capacity during the peak period – improved
way to provide reliable and high-speed travel. signalling and other investments to expand capacity are under development.
• The Toronto York Spadina Subway Extension (TYSSE) • Investment is being made to create new rapid transit. Many projects link population
to TTC Line 1 opened in 2017. This extensions and employment centres outside of Downtown Toronto. Projects include Light Rail
expands Line 1 into York Region, making it the Transit (LRT) systems in Toronto, Mississauga, and Hamilton, with Bus Rapid Transit
GTHA’s first cross boundary subway service. (BRT) development under consideration in Durham, York, Peel, and Halton.

Local • The GTHA is served by multiple local transit • Service plans and fleet strategies can be adapted to provide new service relatively quickly compared
Services services including buses and street cars. to rapid or regional transit, which may require more intense capital development programs.
• These services provide travel options for short-medium
distance trips and connect to rapid or regional transit.
• These services have the shortest stop spacing
and typically operate in mixed traffic.

20 NOTE: Active modes - such as walking or cycling - are often used for short to medium trips or to access higher order transit.
 CHAPTER 2 :CONTEXT

In the peak period and increasingly in the off- • The transportation network may contribute Planned Transportation Investments
peak, this high level of auto demand leads to to housing affordability issues as parts of the
Without additional expansion, the GTHA’s
congestion, which in turn leads to increased GTHA with lower housing costs will remain
transportation network will not provide the
travel times. Travel times across the region less connected to major employment centres.
level or quality of mobility required for a
increase by an average of 30% when congested,
• Reduced accessibility to Downtown Toronto growing region, which has led to significant
with some highways experiencing as much
and other major employment centres will investment in new transit infrastructure over
as a 50%-120% increase in travel time.4 With
decrease the attractiveness of Toronto the last decade, with more investment planned.
increased congestion and crowding comes
to invest or live and will also impede the The planned network described in the 2041
negative impacts to travellers and the region:
region from realizing potential growth. RTP includes a set of rapid transit projects
• Decreased speeds for travellers using that are in delivery across the GTHA:
• Increased congestion will also impede
the automobile network is making
investment and productivity and was • Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Toronto)
it harder for people to get to the
estimated by Metrolinx to reduce regional
destinations they want to reach. • Finch West LRT (Toronto)
productivity by $15 billion per year by 2031.
• Decreased reliability, which requires • Hurontario LRT (Mississauga)
These issues already exist today and
customers to plan further ahead or
are expected to increase as the GTHA's • Mississauga Transitway (Mississauga)
adapt their schedule to the transport.
transportation network becomes
• Hamilton LRT (Hamilton)
• Crowding on transit reduces user overburdened as the region grows. If
experience and travel time reliability as the network cannot meet demand, then • vivaNext Rapidways (York Region)
customers may need to wait for multiple crowding may diminish growth prospects, These projects will provide fast, frequent, two-
transit services to pass before space is quality of life, and economic productivity. way all-day services and will primarily serve
available on a bus, train, or streetcar. intra-municipal trips - however, together they do
not provide region wide connectivity between
major urban growth centres or employment
centres. Additionally, many of these projects
also connect to GO Rail to allow travellers to
access more of the region entirely on transit.
Figure 2.8 illustrates how these projects connect
with GO Rail. Some projects connect to GO Rail
stations without two-way all-day service which
may limit the potential benefits of offering
integrated stations, which highlights the need to
fill the regional gap for two-way all-day service
that connects growth areas across the region.
4 2016 TomTom Historic Traffic Congestion Statistic
(https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/trafficindex/city/toronto)

21
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 2.8: Rapid Transit and GO Rail Interconnectivity

22
23
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

2.3 The Opportunity: Invest in Rail to Accommodate Growth

This problems statement can be addressed by Table 2.2 compares the effects of expanding • Expandable - with infrastructure upgrades
investing in new regional travel options that: the road, rapid transit, and rail networks to (including resolving pinch points at Union
accommodate population and employment Station), GO Rail can add significant capacity
• Demonstrate value for money through
growth in the GTHA based on the problem to meet new demand. Every new train service
the Business Case process.
statement. This table illustrates that: added can provide capacity for over 2,000
• Connect people from where they are passengers per hour per direction per train.
• Highway expansion is unlikely to be an
to where they want to go safely and This is neatly equivalent to adding one new
affordable solution to reducing congestion
conveniently with competitive travel freeway lane for every service dispatched.
because Downtown Toronto has limited
times compared to other modes.
room to expand the Gardiner Expressway • Established Markets - GO Rail services
• Are expandable to meet increasing or Don Valley Parkway. This means Toronto are already well used across the region.
travel demand as the region’s will continue to be a bottleneck and It is anticipated (and is tested in this
population and employment grow. source of congestion, even if highway FBC) that improved rail service will tap
The problem statement is driven by three expansion is provided elsewhere. into further demand that is surpassed
core markets that will see significant demand due to lack of capacity or lack of service
• Rapid Transit investment is underway
increases due to population growth: (example: no two-way, all-day service).
to provide new connectivity, however
it is unlikely to be an affordable • Operating Subsidy - GO Rail revenues
• Demand from the rest of the GTHA to Toronto;
solution to accommodate increased currently cover a significant portion of
• Travel between communities long distance demand. operating and maintenance costs. Some peak
outside of Toronto; and hour services can generate enough revenue
Based on this review, a rail based solution
• Medium distance travel within communities. to cover all associated costs. Unlike highways
is proposed to address the problem
which do not generate revenue to cover
Today, these markets are served by three modes: statement. Rail is an effective solution
operating or maintenance, GO Rail could
based on the following factors:
• Highways that experience be financially sustainable in the long term.
worsening traffic congestion. • Coverage – GO Rail already operates on over
• Competition - GO Rail’s travel times on-
400 km of railways across the GTHA and
• Rapid Transit that is crowded during the peak corridor already compete with the automobile
beyond. GO Rail already runs through many
period and increasingly throughout the day. during the peak period for some trips– as
downtown cores and Urban Growth Centres,
illustrated in Figure 2.9 (note this figure
• Rail services provides coverage across which means there is limited need to build
compares corridor auto driving times based
the region and experiences high expensive tunnels or elevated structures
on Google Maps peak period estimates
demand, but requires investment to be a that a Rapid Transit solution would require.
and station to station travel times on GO. It
competitive choice for some markets. • Deliverability - GO Rail already owns does not include time to access the highway
significant portions of its network, which network or access final destinations).
can expedite the delivery of expanded
transit service across the region.

24
 CHAPTER 2 :Context

Table 2.2: Comparing How Different Modes Could Address the Problem Statement

Problem Road Expansion Rapid Transit Expansion Rail Expansion

Congested Network • Evidence suggests that building additional • The TTC subway system sees • Today GO Rail is not used for short trips or
road capacity induces demand for significant peak period crowding. many trips in Toronto because two-way all-day
trips by automobile, which eventually service is not provided on most lines, fares are
leads to congested highways and a • Projects are underway to improve subway higher than other services, and frequencies
return to the original problem. capacity, however providing new subways are lower than other services - with
that can reduce congestion on other modes improvements to these dimensions, GO Rail
• There is no space to provide more lanes will be a costly (for example: Eglinton could be used by a wider range of passengers
into Downtown Toronto, which means even Crosstown will cost over $5 billion to
if highways are expanded elsewhere in the provide 19 km of new Rapid Transit). • The existing rail network could accommodate
region, Toronto will remain a bottleneck unless significantly higher demand by providing
demand to Toronto uses other modes. two-way, all-day service, higher frequency
services, and services in the off-peak.
• Expanding and improving the rail network
provides longer-term relief from congestion,
both on the transit network and through the
benefit of mode-shift from automobile.
• Railways can transportation more people
than road and approach similar capacities
to Rapid Transit if required. For example,
each GO Rail train could carry over 2,000
passengers, which is nearly twice the
capacity of a TTC Subway Train or the same
capacity as a new highway lane per hour.

Incomplete Network • Roads already cover much of the GTHA – • Rapid Transit projects are in delivery across • Enhancing railway infrastructure and
however travel times slow on congested the GTHA – however these projects are providing new stations enables passengers
segments – such as the Gardiner primarily focused on intra -municipal mobility to access the transit network more
Expressway into Downtown Toronto. and feature shorter stop distances which quickly and easily thereby facilitating
increase travel time for long distance travel. the trips they wish to make.
• Expanding Downtown Toronto Highways
to increase speed is likely infeasible • Through upgrading existing railway lines
due to both high cost and property and providing more services there is an
development patterns (the highway runs opportunity to increase transportation
alongside major developments). capacity without the need to greatly
expand the existing rail corridor.

25
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 2.9: Comparing Auto and GO Transit Travel Times in 2018 ARRIVE AT 0900 in UNION STATION

BAR
ALLANDALE SEGMENT NUMBER &
1 WATERFRONT  MAPLE DIRECTION OF TRAVEL (SEE OPPOSITE PAGE) ALLANDALE
WATERFRONT  UNION

55 55
mins
faster
mins
faster
TRAVEL TIME SAVINGS GAINED BY MODE 35
mins
faster
go rail automobile

200=
20 GO RAIL TRAVEL TIME IN MINUTES 105=
105

200=
20 AUTOMOBILE TRAVEL TIME IN MINUTES 140=
140

LSW LAKESHORE WEST KIT RIC

KITCHENER  UNION
U UNION  GORMLEY
LSE LAKESHORE EAST
N
MIL MILTON 37
mins
I 22mins
faster faster
STO STOUFFVILLE O
KIT KITCHENER 123=
123 N 58=
58

BAR BARRIE
160=
160 80=
80

S
RIC RICHMOND HILL
T
MIL STO
A
PARALLEL
MILTON  UNION UNION  LINCOLNVILLE
HIGHWAY ROUTE T
14
mins
I 31mins
faster O faster

61=
61 N
79=
79

75=
75 110=
110

LSW LSE

HAMILTON  UNION UNION  OSHAWA

58
mins
58mins
faster faster

72=
72 52=
52

130=
130 110=
110

26
 CHAPTER 2 :Context

Figure 2.9: Comparing Auto and

ARRIVE AT 0900 in UNION STATION
GO Transit Travel times in 2018 (continued)

1 2 3
ALLANDALE
WATERFRONT  MAPLE MAPLE  DOWNSVIEW DOWNSVIEW  UNION

15
min
4
min
25
mins
faster faster faster

700=
70 140=
14 200=
20

550=
55 100=
10 450=
45

1 2 3 3 2 1
KITCHENER  MOUNT MOUNT ETOBICOKE ETOBICOKE  UNION U OLD OLD  RICHMOND RICHMOND  GORMLEY
PLEASANT PLEASANT  NORTH NORTH UNION  CUMMER CUMMER HILL HILL
N
2
mins
3
min
3
mins
I 18
mins
5
mins
1
min
faster faster faster faster faster faster
O
680=
68 310=
31 320=
32 N 320=
32 140=
14 100=
10

700=
70 280=
28 350=
35 500=
50 90=
9 90=
9

S
1 2 3 T 3 2 1
MILTON  ERINDALE ERINDALE  KIPLING KIPLING  UNION
A UNION  MILLIKEN MILLIKEN  MOUNT MOUNT  LINCOLNVILLE
T JOY JOY

2
min
3
mins
6
mins
I 12
mins
16
mins
1
min
faster faster faster O faster faster faster

240=
24 170=
17 200=
20 N
380=
38 240=
24 170=
17

220=
22 200=
20 260=
26 500=
50 80=8 160=
16

1 2 3 2 1
HAMILTON  OAKVILLE OAKVILLE  LONG LONG UNION  ROUGE HILL ROUGE HILL  OSHAWA
BRANCH BRANCH  UNION

16
mins
13
mins
4
mins
55mins
1
min
faster faster faster faster faster

390=
39 220=
22 240=
24 350=
35 270=
27

550=
55 350=
35 280=
28 900=90 260=
26

27
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

2.4 The Solution: Transform GO Rail into a Rapid Rail System

The Case for Change: Addressing the

Problem Through Targeted Investment
The solution to the problem statement is to • Offer a blend of express and all-
use targeted investment to transform GO stop services to meet the needs of
Rail into a region-wide Rapid Rail network. a wide range of customers.
Rapid Rail systems vary from other rail systems
• Operate on surface corridors where
based on the following characteristics:
available, but run in tunnels or on
• Use of electric trains, with rapid acceleration elevated structures where necessary.
and top speeds of 120 to 200 kilometres per
• Alignments are almost always exclusive
hour. Almost all have level-loading or near-
and not shared with road traffic, and
level loading, from platform to train. All have
level crossings are minimized.
control systems that enable frequent services
to operate safely. GO Rail is now the largest • Have integrated ticketing and/or fares
single diesel system in the world. Other cities with other services to allow for seamless
have electrified their systems for operational and convenient user experience.
efficiency and commercial productivity.
• Function as part of region-wide networks with
• Offer frequent all-day services, with trains physical integration with other transit modes -
every 10-15 minutes all-day from suburban such as subway, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), or
areas to regional or sub regional hubs, Light Rail Transit (BRT), and local bus services.
and services every 15-30-60 minutes
Rapid Rail is compared to other types
from communities up to 100 km away.
of transit in Table 2.3 based on the type
Services can be more frequent in peak
of trip each transit typically serves.
hours, or as required to carry demand.

28
 CHAPTER 2 :Context

Table 2.3: The Role of Rapid Rail as Part of Regional Transportation Networks

Longer trips across city regions Medium-distance trips, within dense city centres Short and medium distance trips, and
Trip type
of 3 to 20 million people feeder trips to subways and rail

Typical mode Rapid Rail Subways or Metros Light Rail/Streetcars/Tram

used to serve
trip type

Paris RER; London Thameslink; Sydney Cityrail;

Toronto Subway; Montréal Metro; Hong Kong Mass St Clair, Spadina, Harbourfront Streetcars;
Melbourne M-Train; Tokyo Rail Network;
Transit; Beijing subway; Delhi Metro; Paris Metro Finch LRT; Kitchener Waterloo ION
Zurich S-Bahn; Copenhagen S-tog
Examples

Tokyo Metro and Japanese Rail East; London Underground Ottawa Confederation LRT; Buffalo LRT; Boston Green Line; Vancouver Skytrain;
and Crossrail; Hong Kong Westrail and Eastrail Eglinton Crosstown (under construction); Montréal REM (under construction)

Train length 160 to 350 metres 60 to 200 metres 15m to 60m

Single or double deck; 500 -2,000 seated passengers

Train size Single deck; 100 to 1,000 passenger, many standing Single deck; 100 to 500 passengers, many standing
double deck brings down the cost per seat

Mostly surface; sometimes in

Alignment Mostly surface in existing rail corridors Mostly tunnel or elevated
streets shared with traffic

Frequency 2 to 15 minutes 2 to 5 minutes 2 to 10 minutes

Top speed 110 to 160 km/h 80 to 100 km/h 60 to 100 km/h

Station
2km to 8km 1km to 2.5km 300m to 3km
spacing

Capital cost
$30m - $100m $300m - $1bn $50m - $500m
per km

Effective
Capacity
2,000 to 60,000 spanning the range 10,000 – 40,000 usually deployed where a surface 2,000 – 10,000 viable in moderate density
(passengers
of subway and light rail right of way is unavailable or cannot be built corridors where surface alignments are possible
per hour per
direction

29
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 2.10: Example Rapid Rail Systems

Experience from other City-Regions:

What are the core elements of
an Rapid Rail system?
Worldwide, large city regions have invested in
electrified Rapid Rail style systems to manage
growth by providing fast, frequent, and reliable
mobility options. Global examples of Rapid
Rail style systems are shown in Figure 2.10. SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA LONDON, ENGLAND
There are systems in more than 60 cities
(shown in Figure 2.11) in Asia, Australasia, Sydney has frequent two-way all- London has frequent electric railway
and Europe. These systems, together with day services extending over a large services on 40 routes in a network that
local transit, enable trips across a large region network. Nearer the city centre, trains has developed progressively since the
that are competitive with travelling by other run every 5-10 minutes, while further out, 1920s into a Rapid Rail style system.
modes in speed, comfort, and convenience. headways extend to 15 or 30 minutes.

TOKYO, JAPAN PARIS, FRANCE

The Tokyo rail network, provides Paris’ railway blends radial and cross city
high frequency services across the lines to provide high levels of accessibility
metropolitan region and into neighboring across the city throughout the day.
regions using fast electric trains.

30
 CHAPTER 2 :CONTEXT

Figure 2.11: Rapid Rail Systems Around the World

North America Europe Oslo

Stockholm
Helsinki
Tallinn
1. Amsterdam
2. Rotterdam
3. Hamburg
16 Copenhagen 4. Hanover
San Francisco 16. Glasgow
5. Berlin
17. Dublin 3
Chicago Toronto 18
19 6. Leipzig
18. Liverpool 17
1 5 7. Rhine-Ruhr
19. Manchester 20 4 Cologne-Bonn, Düsseldorf,
New York City 20. Liverpool 2 7 6 Essen, Dortmund
Philadelphia
London 15
8 8. Frankfurt
9 9. Mannheim
10
Paris 11 10. Stuttgart
13
Vienna
12 11. Munich
14 12. Zürich
Milan 13. Basel
Mexico City 14. Geneva
15. Brussels

Barcelona Istanbul

Madrid
Lisbon
South America

Asia / Oceania Japan

Hong Kong

Rio de Janeiro
São Paolo
Kyoto

Tokyo
Kobe
Buenos Aires
Hiroshima
Yokohama

Brisbane Fukuoka Osaka

Perth Nagoya
Sydney
Melbourne
Auckland

31
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE
Q UA L I TY OF L I F E
QGOUA L I TY OF L I F E
Q UA
Figure 2.12: Benefits of L I TY OF L I F E
Expansion

Safe, Reliable, and Convenient Connections

GO Expansion will provide new capacity and a high quality of service
that will serve part of the GTHA’s growing transportation demands
GO Expansion – Regional BenefitsOutcomes
and Evaluation Framework • It will improve customer experience by providing more service (including two-
way all-day service) alongside other customer focused initiatives
Regional policies - including the 2041 RTP • It will serve new passengers who are attracted by faster and more frequent trains
- were used to generate a benefits and T RA N S P ORTAT I ON
• It will lead to a more resilient network by maintaining or
evaluation framework for GO Expansion
B E N EF I T S Texceeding
RA NcurrentS P ORTAT
operating costIO N
recovery
• T RA N Scapacity
P ORTAT IOandN
based on four strategic benefit categories as
It will provide that meets exceeds growth forecasts
shown in Figure 2.12. These benefits describe
B E N EF I T S
the high-level value that GO Expansion can B E N EF I T S
realize for the region and are further discussed
High Quality of Life
and analyzed in Chapter 4 (the Strategic
GO Expansion will maintain and enhance quality of life as the GTHA grows
Case). Table 2.4 provides further detail on Q UA L I TY OF L I F E
how GO Expansion contributes to specific • It will improve travel across the region, and reduce congestion by connecting
regional plans and policies in the GTHA. passengers to places they want to go with fast and convenient transit service
• It will lead to a safer transportation network that supports a healthy region
The GO Expansion program will realize
these benefits by delivering six key • It will support the development of complete communities, not
just in Toronto but at every station on the system
changes to the GO Rail network:
• Expanding Union Station
• Making stations more accessible E CON OMProsperous
IC Economy
GOEExpansion
CON OM I C the development and prosperity of the GTHA
will support
• Providing Service in Both Directions P ROS P E RIETY CON OM IC
• It will connect people and businesses with a reliable and fast service –
• Implementing More All-Day Service Tmaking
P RA
ROS N S
P PE ORTAT
RI TY IO N
P ROS P E RI TY invest, and innovate in the GTHA
it easier to connect,
• Providing Faster Travel Times • B EN
It will EF Iconnectivity
improve TS between growing hubs in the
region – enabling urban development
• Increasing Service Frequency to
• It will generate jobs during the design, construction, and operation of the service
Every Fifteen Minutes or Better

E N V I RON M E N TA L
AE
GO
N
NI LV
S U STA I NProtected
EBExpansion
IEnvironment
RON M E N TA L
VI ITY
RON MtoEan
will lead Noverall
TA Lmore sustainable transportation network
S
• S
U STA I N A B I L I TY
U STA
It will increaseIthe
Noverall
A B Iefficiency
L I TYof GO Rail operations
– meaning each trip taken will pollute less
• It will shift demand from the auto network – reducing the GTHA’s
carbon footprint and contributions to climate change

32 E CON OM I C
P ROS P E RI TY
 CHAPTER 2 :Context

Table 2.4: Key Stakeholder Plans and Projects, Municipal Review

Municipal
Key Considerations
Review

• Durham’s long-term goals include creating healthy and complete, sustainable communities with a variety of mobility choices.
Region of • Supporting the planning, design and operation of an integrated transit service within the Region and with
Durham adjacent areas is a listed priority within the Durham Regional Official Plan (2017).
• Ensuring the successful implementation of GO Expansion to compliment other Durham Region rapid transit corridors is a regional priority.

Regional
• The Halton Regional Official Plan's (2016) long-term goal is to develop a safe, convenient, accessible, affordable and efficient
Municipality
transportation system that supports healthy communities by promoting active transportation and public transit.
of Halton

• The City of Hamilton Official Plan (2013) notes that the function of an integrated transportation network, and therefore an objective
of the Plan, is to move people and goods safely, efficiently and effectively, and serve as an economic enabler.
• The region aims to provide a balanced and integrated transportation network that facilitates all modes of transportation
City of Hamilton
such as active transportation, transit, automobiles, goods movement vehicles, rail, air and marine.
• The City’s Transportation Master Plan (2007) calls for an expansion in transportation options that encourage active transportation, transit and enhance efficient
inter-regional connections. It also notes the need for a more compact urban form, land use intensification and transit-supportive node and corridor development.

Regional • The intent of the Region and its municipalities is to move towards the development of sustainable communities. Transit is considered to play a key
Municipality role in this ambition, including helping to improve air quality and ensuring a healthy and active population. In the Official Plan (2012), the Region
of Peel explicitly notes its support for the GO Rail improvements, relevant to Peel, that are articulated in Metrolinx’s Regional Transportation Plan.

• The City’s Official Plan (2015) describes the need to create a city with a comprehensive and high-quality transit system that improves
City of Toronto mobility for all; linking areas of housing, employment, and goods and services. The Plan includes a specific policy to support
the increased use of existing rail corridors within the City for enhanced local and inter-regional passenger service.

• York Region’s Official Plan (2016) uses a lens of sustainability to frame its plans to manage future growth. A key objective with respect to
transportation is to provide a transit service that is convenient and accessible to all residents and workers of York Region. The establishment
Regional of two subway extensions (one, to Vaughan Metropolitan Centre, opened in December 2017. The other, an extension from Finch to Richmond
Municipality Hill, is in design stages) and a series of rapid transit and transit priority corridors are the cornerstones of York Region’s transit network.
of York
• In its Transportation Master Plan (2016), the Region notes the initiation of a Transit Optimization Program (TOP) in response to the introduction of the GO
Rail Expansion program. Included in the program is aligning YRT/Viva’s services to GO Transit’s schedule, and improved access to GO Transit stations.

33
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

The remainder of this FBC demonstrates Figure 2.13: GO Expansion Evaluation Framework
how GO Expansion achieves these benefits
and what is required to successfully deliver
the program. This FBC makes use of a ‘logic
chain’ to illustrate what is included in the
investment program and how delivering
GO Expansion will generate the proposed
benefits. A benefits evaluation and Inputs Actions (means) Outputs Outcomes (ends)
management framework was used in this Resources required The core The direct, The broader value
FBC to evaluate GO Expansion. Figure 2.13 to deliver the changes to the measurable results propositions to
outlines the generic evaluation framework investment transportation from delivering be achieved by
while Figure 2.14 illustrates the evaluation network the investment delivering the
framework for GO Expansion and a investment
roadmap for the remainder of the FBC.
Core Question

What are the

What level of What What is the wider
direct effects of
investment is will the project benefit of the
the investment on
required? provide? investment?
regional travel?
What is included?

• Ridership
• Indicators for
• Costs (capital • Change in auto VKT project support
and operational
• Infrastructure and • Change in revenue for quality of
expenditure)
service changes • Change in life, sustainable
• Organizational
resource costs environment,
capacity
and prosperity

34
CHAPTER 2 :CONTEXT

35
 Figure 2.14: GO Expansion Roadmap and Evaluation Approach

PROBLEM STATEMENT Without investment, the regional transportation system will not meet this need and
will reduce the region's attractiveness as a place to live and do business in, because:
If the GO Service Area is to continue to grow, prosper,
comes and function as a single integrated region, it needs fast, • DEMAND WILL EXCEED THE CAPACITY OF THE NETWORK
frequent, efficient, and high capacity regional transportation LEADING TO INCREASED CONGESTION
comes that provides reliable mobility between its key population • THE TRANSIT NETWORK IS INCOMPLETE AND
and employment centres and Downtown Toronto. DOES NOT SERVE ALL TRAVELLERS

Investment in the GO Rail network will directly address this problem and support regional goals and objectives.

Q UA L I TYOUTCOMES
OQFUA L ILI
FETY O F LI F E OUTPUTS ACTIONS/INPUTS
How will GO Expansion benefit the region? What are the investment’s direct What investments are delivered to
Q UA LI TY O F LI F E effects on regional travel that can realize the benefits?
lead to benefits?

comes Improve Union Station’s

Safe, Reliable, and Convenient Connections AN EXPANDED capacity and passenger
GO Expansion will benefit the transportationnetwork by: UNION facilities, improving
• Growing ridership throughout the day and across the STATION train operations and
region by providing improved customer experience, Changes in Ridership and passenger experience
accessibility, frequencies, and time savings Revenue due to Improved Travel
TDecongesting
R A NS
T R A N S P O• RTAT I OPNO RTATbyI O
highways N cars off the road
taking Times and User Experience Make stations more
• Increasing network resilience and reducing operating subsidy • Decreased in vehicle, MORE
BENEFITS BTREANENS F IPTO S RTAT I O N waiting, and access times ACCESSIBLE
accessible through
platforms and
High Quality of Life STATIONS
GOQ
BExpansion
E NE Fwill
ITS multi-modal access
UA LI TYimproveO F LI F E of life by:
quality improvements
• Improving user experience and reducing the stress of
daily travel by increasing travel speed, frequency, and
reliability while expanding the range of destinations people Provide frequent, all-
MORE ALL-DAY day service improving
can reach across the city by providing new stations SERVICE the quality and
• Reducing transportation related death and injury
availability of GO Rail
by attracting travellers off of the auto network to
the rail network by providing new stations and
improved frequency, travel speed, and reliability
Improved
Operating Efficiency SERVICE IN Provide corridor
BOTH
E CO N O M IECO
TCR A NS
Prosperous NO PM OIRTAT
Economy C ION (reduced cost per train km)
DIRECTIONS
improvements —
including electrification
GO Expansion will support prosperity and development by:
ECO
P R O SP ER•IP
BTYR
E O
NE NO
S P
F E
I M
TRS I C
TY
Improving connectivity between homes, jobs, and businesses
and track improvements -
to increase frequencies in
PbyRincreasing
O S P E travel
R I TY speed, frequency, and reliability peak periods, improving
• Creating new connections between areas that are the availability of GO Rail
proposed for new residential and commercial development TRAINS EVERY
as well as existing economic activity centres 15 MINUTES

EN NTA
Protected
E N VI R O N ME V Environment
IRO L NM E NTA L
GO Expansion will increase sustainability by: Deliver upgraded, more
•S
S U STA I N A EN
B VI ITY
UI LSTA
Increasing
ROIthe
NANM BEI LNTA
resource TY L of the transportation
Iefficiency FASTER cost-effective fleet that
Decreased Auto Vehicle AND MORE accelerates faster and
S U STA I NA B I L I TYefficient trains that have
network by providing more
Kilometres Travelled EFFICIENT can be split into smaller
lower emissions per passenger km travelled FLEET train sets depending on
• Reducing transportation emissions by attracting travellers
demand for off peak and
ECO NO
off of the Mnetwork
auto I C to the rail network by providing new peak services
stations and improved frequency, travel speed, and reliability
P R O S P E R I TY
36
 CHAPTER 2 :Context

Figure 2.14: GO Expansion Roadmap and Evaluation Approach

Outcomes

Role/Case Inputs and Outputs Transportation Benefits Quality of Life Benefits Prosperity Benefits Protected Environment
Actions Moving more people on Creating a connected and Supporting a more productive Reducing the energy and
a resilient and customer healthy region on a safe region by decreasing commute resources used to provide
focused network. transportation network times and unlocking investment mobility in the GTHA

Description of travel
Summary of
time and frequency
Chapter 3: proposed • Outcomes and Benefits are not discussed in Chapter 3.
performance
GO Expansion investment
objectives
Program
Definition

• New ridership by • Estimated reduction

• Change in time of day and in number of • Estimated time saved
• Estimated reduction
automobile geography - Increased accidents resulting due to decongestion on
Defining in fuel, emissions, and
vehicle kilometers network resilience in injury or death the highway network,
how actions greenhouse gases
travelled • Reduced operating • Estimated reduction and time saved due to
change the for the transportation
Chapter 4: subsidy and increased in health impacting improved travel time
network • Change in trips network as a whole
Strategic Case self-sufficiency - emissions and service frequency
by mode and for GO Rail
Improved customer • Estimated change on the rail network
experience in active travel

• Monetized journey • Monetized accident

• Reduction in
time savings (including reductions
Defining cost whole journey
reliability and crowding) • Monetized criteria air
to deliver in time leading to • Monetized resource
• Monetized off peak contaminants reductions • Wider Economic Impacts
economic mode change and GHG savings
Chapter 5: congestion • Monetized health
terms and reductions in
Economic Case • Monetized improvements due to
automobile VKT
decongestion benefits more active mode use

Defining
• Impact to required
costs and • Assessing
subsidy due to • Not discussed in
financial forecasted change
change in revenue Financial Case
Chapter 6: requirements in revenue
and operating costs
Financial Case to deliver

Defining
• Assessing risks to
delivery
provide service to • The Deliverability and Operations Case discusses how GO Expansion will be delivered and
Chapter 7: requirements
meet forecasted key risks will be mitigated in order to realize the benefits specified in other cases.
Deliverability and risk
outputs
and Operations management
Case

37
GO Expansion Program
3
38
Overview How is the chapter structured?
This chapter provides an overview of the GO Expansion Section Content
program proposed to address the problem statement
and realize the opportunities described in Chapter 3. A definition of the proposed GO
Expansion program based on the
The technical program outlined in this chapter is of a Reference outputs it will realize and the assumed
design Metrolinx has developed
Concept Design (RCD) that illustrates how the GO Expansion GO Expansion
program may be delivered to achieve a set of performance
3.1 Program Definition
to demonstrate the program’s
potential. This section also includes a
objectives - such as faster trains, higher frequencies, or cost description of the proposed changes
efficiencies. The actual design for the GO Expansion Program to each GO Rail line included in
will realize these objectives but its technical specifications the GO Expansion program.
may vary from the RCD based on the proposed procurement
approach (detailed in Chapter 7: Deliverability and Operations
Case) where private partners will design, build, finance, A description of the process
Reference Concept
operate, and maintain GO Rail improvements. Further detail and assumptions used to
3.2 Design Process
develop the Reference Concept
on RCDs are included within this chapter in section 3.3. Assumptions
Design for GO Expansion.
The program outlined in this chapter is evaluated in the
four cases in chapters 4-7: Strategic Case, Economic Case,
A summary of other projects,
Financial Case, and the Deliverability and Operations Case. Program programs, or proposals that may
3.3 Interdependencies impact GO Expansion or support
the realization of its benefits.

39
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Chapter 3 Overview:
GO Expansion by the numbers

40
 CHAPTER 3 :GO Expansion Program

3.1 Program Definition

GO Expansion Program Overview Reference Concept Design Summary

This subsection summarizes the proposed Metrolinx has developed an RCD that The key characteristics of the RCD are:
GO Expansion program including key illustrates how the GO Expansion program
• At least 15 minute all day, two-way
elements of the RCD and the outputs the may be delivered and the scope of benefits
service across the entire GO owned
program seeks to deliver for the region. the region could realize as a proof of concept.
network with 7 minute service available
This reference concept design is used to:
The GO Expansion program will transform where customer demand exists.
GO Rail from a commuter rail service to a • Demonstrate that a working approach
• Express services where feasible to
Rapid Rail system that provides travellers to deliver GO Expansion is possible.
cut travel times from more distant
with fast, frequent, two-way all-day services
• Determine a budget and construction portions of the network.
across the GO Service Area. Metrolinx has
schedule to be approved by Treasury Board.
specified a range of performance objectives • Electrified train service that allows for faster
for the level of performance GO Expansion This RCD was developed based on over acceleration and speed at lower cost.
should realize – as defined in Table 3.1. These three years of engineering, economic, and
• Upgraded signaling system that will
performance objectives are further defined in: modelling analysis to present a realistic and
enable the rail network to support
deliverable concept for GO Expansion.
• Figure 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3 which illustrate more service and improve safety.
the proposed service improvements Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario will use
• Upgraded and expanded fleet of vehicles
GO Expansion will realize a Private Public Partnership (P3) model to
to enable flexible response to changing
deliver GO Expansion. This means a private
• Figure 3.4, which shows end to end travel demand and improved customer experience.
sector partner will collaborate with Metrolinx
times to Union Station by line and Figures 3.5
to design, build, finance, and operate GO Rail • Upgrades at existing stations, including
and 3.6 which show how long it takes to reach
as a Rapid Rail system. As a result, the exact expanded platforms, station buildings
Downtown Toronto assuming an average
specifications of the future GO Rail system will and amenities as required to meet
access time to the nearest GO Rail station.
be determined through the GO Expansion the proposed service plan.
The benefits that this program will realize and procurement process where potential partners
• Improve switches, and a more
the requirements for their successful delivery are will submit proposals to realize the core
flexible track arrangement and more
explored in the four evaluation chapters (4-7) objectives of GO Expansion defined in Table 3.1.
storage for the expanded fleet.
included in this document, while subsequent
Chapter 3 subsections provide greater detail • Improved capacity at the network
on reference RCDs for each GO Rail line. heart, Union Station in downtown
Toronto, to support a minimum of
66 trains an hour with significant
additional capacity for future growth.

41
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Table 3.1: GO Expansion Program Description, Objectives, and Reference Design Summary

GO Expansion Performance Reference Concept

Description
Program Element Objectives Design Features

6,000 weekly services, • Expanded track and on-

Provide service throughout
including: corridor works to accommodate
the day and on weekends,
not just on weekday • Lakeshore West – two-way more frequent service What will vary between the Reference
MORE ALL-DAY peak periods in both directions:
SERVICE
all-day service between Union Concept Design and the GO Expansion
and Hamilton, fifteen minute
service or better between
• Eleven new rail/road and two Program Delivered by the Consortium?
rail/rail grade separations
Burlington and Union
• 205 km of new track Metrolinx has defined a set of outcomes and
Provide two-way service • Eleven new Pedestrian
on more of the GO
• Kitchener – two-way all-day objectives that GO Expansion will realize.
SERVICE IN BOTH between Mount Pleasant bridges
Rail network and Union, fifteen minute
Each outcome requires improvements to GO
DIRECTIONS
service or better between Rail which have been scoped as minimum
Bramalea and Union performance requirements that both the RCD
• Barrie – two-way all-day and proposals submitted by potential partners
between Allandale and Union, must adhere to. These include specifications for:
fifteen minute service or better
between Aurora and Union • Travel time improvements
Increase frequencies to a • Stouffville – two-way all-day
train every fifteen minutes between Mount joy and Union,
• Train service frequencies
or better where possible on fifteen minute service or better
TRAINS EVERY the GO Rail network between Unionville and Union
• Customer experience
15 MINUTES
• Lakeshore East – two-way • Safety
all-day with fifteen minute
or better service between The RCD is just one of many potential
Oshawa and Union infrastructure and service investment programs
that could be deployed to reach these
Make use of fleet that • Combination of Electric objectives. All proposals submitted to Metrolinx
• Making use of trains that Multiple Units (EMUs) or
are more cost effective
are up to 29% faster and may vary in their design and delivery (example:
FASTER AND to operate and have  Electric Hauled Locomotives
up to 50% cheaper to different signalling approaches, different track
MORE EFFICIENT faster acceleration • Over 680 km of GO Rail
and stopping operate per train kilometer designs) – however they all must deliver the
TRAINS track is electrified
benefits specified in this Business Case.

• Level boarding included at 42

Provide improved  stations, • Customers can board and stations to decrease boarding,
allowing for easier alight faster, reducing trip alighting, and platform
MORE access to GO Rail times times by 2-5 minutes clearance time, which will
ACCESSIBLE decrease train dwell times
STATIONS

Improve Union Station’s

capacity and passenger • Ability to accommodate • Widened platform and
facilities, improving rerference frequencies improved vertical circulation
AN EXPANDED train operations and on each GO Rail Line (stairs, elevators)
UNION STATION passenger experience

42
 CHAPTER 3 :GO EXPANSION PROGRAM

Figure 3.1:
BAR
Overview of GO Rail
Services After GO
Expansion

RIC

STO

LSE

KIT

MIL

LSW

43
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

DIESEL BI-DIRECTIONAL SERVICE

Figure 3.2: BAR
EMU BI-DIRECTIONAL SERVICE
AM Peak Reference Concept Design GO Rail Services after GO Expansion
BARRIE ELECTRIC LOCOMOTIVE
BI-DIRECTIONAL SERVICE
A L L A N DA L E
WAT E R F R O N T 1 4 DIESEL ONE-WAY SERVICE

The indicated service levels in Figure 3.2 and 3.3 represent the Reference Train BARRIE SOUTH 1 4 EMU ONE-WAY SERVICE
Service Plan as of Nov 28, 2018. Modifications to the Reference Train Service
Plan may be made in advance of procurement based on train simulation. ELECTRIC LOCOMOTIVE
BRADFORD 1 4 ONE-WAY SERVICE

NUMBER OF TRAINS
E A ST
GWI L L I MB U RY 1 4 2 PER HOUR IN
KIT K I T C H E N E R ONE DIRECTION
1
N E W MA R KE T 1 4 ELECTRIFICATION LIMIT
1
ER

‡ Alternatives for
EN

AU R O R A 4 1 4 Etobicoke North Station

H

1
C

RIC are under consideration.

H
IT

2
EL
K

1 KI N G CI TY 4
G

RICHMOND HILL
N
TO

2 STO
C
A

1
N

2 MA P L E 4 B LO O M I N GTO N 2 STOUFFVILLE
W
O

6
ET

1
N T
SA N
T
G

2
A OU
R

4 1 4 2 3
EO

RUTHERFORD GORMLEY L I N CO L N V I L L E
6
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1
G

N
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P

6
P

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4 1 4 RICHMOND 2 3
M

STO U F F V I L L E
A
A

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LE
R
B

6
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A

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R

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O

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B

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6 S PA D I N A - 4 1 4 OLD 2 3 1 MARKHAM
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4
IS
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44
 CHAPTER 3 :GO Expansion Program

DIESEL BI-DIRECTIONAL SERVICE

Figure 3.3: BAR
EMU BI-DIRECTIONAL SERVICE
Off-Peak Reference Concept Design GO Rail Services after GO Expansion
BARRIE ELECTRIC LOCOMOTIVE
BI-DIRECTIONAL SERVICE
A L L A N DA L E
WAT E R F R O N T 2
DIESEL ONE-WAY SERVICE

The indicated service levels in Figure 3.2 and 3.3 represent the Reference Train BARRIE SOUTH 2 EMU ONE-WAY SERVICE
Service Plan as of Nov 28, 2018. Modifications to the Reference Train Service
Plan may be made in advance of procurement based on train simulation. ELECTRIC LOCOMOTIVE
BRADFORD 2 ONE-WAY SERVICE

NUMBER OF TRAINS
E A ST
GWI L L I MB U RY 2 2 PER HOUR IN
ONE DIRECTION
KIT K I T C H E N E R
ER N E W MA R KE T 2 ELECTRIFICATION LIMIT

‡ Alternatives for
EN

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LSW LAKESHORE WEST LAKESHORE EAST LSE

45
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 3.4: Reference Concept Design GO Expansion Travel Time Improvements ARRIVE AT 0900 in UNION STATION

BAR
GO RAIL LINE
DIRECTION OF TRAVEL ALLANDALE
NOTE: GO Expansion WATERFRONT  UNION

55 55 TRAVEL TIME SAVINGS

includes improvements to
59
mins
faster
mins
faster GAINED BY MODE
increase train speed along
mins

go rail automobile with new stations, each of faster

which will impact travel times

200=
20 GO RAIL TRAVEL TIME (MINS) across the GO Rail network 81=
81

200=
20 AUTOMOBILE TRAVEL TIME (MINS) 140=
140

LSW LAKESHORE WEST KIT RIC

A TE
W

LL R
A

400
A FR
N O

LSE LAKESHORE EAST KITCHENER  UNION U UNION  BLOOMINGTON

D N
A T
LE

N
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B
MIL MILTON
LO

I
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LI
mins mins
M
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G

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119= 64=
N

V
119 64

IL
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LE
KIT KITCHENER

BAR BARRIE
160=
160 80=
80

S
RIC RICHMOND HILL BAR RIC STO
T
MIL STO
407 407 A
PARALLEL TOLL TOLL

HIGHWAY ROUTE
MILTON  UNION T UNION  LINCOLNVILLE
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I
410
401

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TOLL

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mins O
52mins
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56
mins
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46 QEW
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N
 TRAVEL TIME (MINUTES)

CHAPTER 3 :GO Expansion Program

LEGEND 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 > 135

TRAVEL TIME (MINUTES) NET TIME SAVINGS (MINUTES)

Figure 3.5: Comparison

of Travel Times on GO 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 > 135 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 48

Rail to Downtown Toronto

Before and After GO NET TIME SAVINGS (MINUTES) GO RAIL STATION & LINE
Expansion in the AM Peak
MUNICIPAL BOUNDARY
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 48

GO RAIL STATION & LINE

MUNICIPAL BOUNDARY

LEGEND
TRAVEL TIME (MINUTES)

WITHOUT GO EXPANSION WITHOUT GO EXPANSION vs.

AM PEAK TRAVEL TIME 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 > 135 GO EXPANSION

TO DOWNTOWN TORONTO NET TIME SAVINGS

NET TIME SAVINGS (MINUTES)
(AM PEAK) TO
DOWNTOWN TORONTO
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 48

GO RAIL STATION & LINE

MUNICIPAL BOUNDARY

WITH GO EXPANSION
AM PEAK TRAVEL TIME
TO DOWNTOWN TORONTO

47
 TRAVEL TIME (MINUTES)

GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

LEGEND 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 > 135

TRAVEL TIME (MINUTES) NET TIME SAVINGS (MINUTES)

Figure 3.6: Comparison

of Travel Times on GO 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 > 135 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 48

Rail to Dowtown Toronto

Before and After GO NET TIME SAVINGS (MINUTES) GO RAIL STATION & LINE
Expansion in the Off Peak
MUNICIPAL BOUNDARY
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 48

GO RAIL STATION & LINE

MUNICIPAL BOUNDARY

LEGEND
TRAVEL TIME (MINUTES)

WITHOUT GO EXPANSION WITHOUT GO EXPANSION vs.

OFF-PEAK TRAVEL TIME 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 > 135 GO EXPANSION

TO DOWNTOWN TORONTO NET TIME SAVINGS

NET TIME SAVINGS (MINUTES)
(OFF-PEAK) TO
DOWNTOWN TORONTO
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 48

GO RAIL STATION & LINE

MUNICIPAL BOUNDARY

WITH GO EXPANSION
OFF-PEAK TRAVEL TIME
TO DOWNTOWN TORONTO

48
 CHAPTER 3 :GO Expansion Program

GO Rail Line Improvements

49
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

LSW Lakeshore West

Lakeshore West Today

Lakeshore West is GO Rail’s most heavily
used corridor, with 48,000 peak passengers
and 16,000 mid-day, contra-peak, and all-
day passengers. Large parts of the corridor
have been urbanized since the 1950s
but intensification continues especially
around Oakville and Aldershot stations.
The Lakeshore West Line currently offers
two-way all-day service between Union Table 3.2: GO Expansion Improvements to the Lakeshore West Line
Station and Aldershot with trains arriving
every 15-20 minutes in the peak period Program Element Performance Objectives Next Steps
and every 30 minutes throughout the rest
of the day and on evenings and weekends. • Customers can board and
MORE • Improvements at: Exhibition, Mimico, Long Branch,
Additionally, there are trains to Union Station ACCESSIBLE alight faster, reducing trip
Clarkson, Oakville, Bronte, Appleby, Burlington
from Hamilton in the morning and trains from STATIONS times by 2-5 minutes
Union Station to Hamilton in the evening.
Investment Summary • 282 weekday services • 20.4 km of new track, two new road/rail separations
MORE
As part of GO Expansion, Lakeshore West ALL-DAY • Detailed service plan • All-day EMU service comprises 2 tph stopping
SERVICE shown in Figure 3.5 at all stations to/from Burlington, and 2 tph
will receive significant investment which is stopping at all stations to/from Oakville.
summarized in Table 3.2. The travel time • Two-way all-day service
between Union and • All-day Aldershot trains stop at Burlington,
and frequency improvements included in Hamilton, fifteen minute Bronte, Appleby, Oakville and Clarkson offering
this program are illustrated in Figure 3.7. SERVICE
service or better between a combined service from these stations,
IN BOTH
DIRECTIONS Burlington and Union half of which are express from Oakville
• Oakville and Clarkson have 6 tph, comprising
2 express and 4 all stations. Port Credit and
all stations to Union have 4 tph all day
TRAINS EVERY
15 MINUTES

FASTER • Up to 8% faster for electric • Electrification from Union Station to Burlington

AND MORE locomotive services Station (205 km of electrified track)
EFFICIENT
TRAINS • Up to 29% faster for EMU service • Use of electric rolling stock (locomotives and EMUs)

50
 CHAPTER 3 :GO EXPANSION PROGRAM

Figure 3.7: Lakeshore West Reference Concept Design Frequency and Speed Improvements

51
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

KIT Kitchener

Kitchener Today
Today the Kitchener Line is a well utilized
passenger rail service with 22,000 peak
passengers and 4,000 mid-day and off-peak
passengers. The corridor serves urban centres
and communities West of Toronto with direct
connectivity to Guelph and Kitchener-Waterloo.
The Kitchener Line provides a four-train peak
service between Kitchener Station and Toronto
in the AM Peak and Toronto and Kitchener Table 3.3: GO Expansion Expansion Improvements to the Kitchener Line
Station in the PM peak. An additional two
trains per peak period run between Bramalea Program Element Performance Objectives Next Steps
and Union Station in the AM peak and
Union Station and Bramalea in the PM Peak. • Customers can board and
MORE • Improvements at: Bramalea, Brampton,
There is a two-way service every 60 minutes ACCESSIBLE alight faster, reducing trip
Georgetown, Bloor, Weston, Malton
between Union Station and Mount Pleasant STATIONS times by 2-5 minutes

Investment Summary
• 340 weekday services • 38 km of new track, nine upgraded bridges, two
As part of GO Expansion, Kitchener will see MORE (increase of 159) new road/rail grade separations, one new layover
ALL-DAY
significant upgrades between Bramalea and SERVICE • Detailed service plan • Peak service from Kitchener to Union (1 tph,
Union Station, with additional improvements shown in Figure 3.6 reverse in PM peak) with an additional 2 tph from
on the remainder of the corridor. Table 3.3 Georgetown to Union (reverse in PM peak)
• Two-way all-day service
summarizes the reference concept design and between Union and Bramalea, • Off-peak Diesel locomotive service between
performance objectives for Kitchener. The travel SERVICE
additional off-peak two- Georgetown and Union (1 tph)
IN BOTH
time and frequency improvements included DIRECTIONS way service between Union
and Mount Pleasant • All-day EMU service between
in this program are illustrated in Figure 3.8. Bramalea and Union (6 tph)

TRAINS EVERY
15 MINUTES

FASTER • Electrification from Union Station to Bramalea

AND MORE • Up to 29% faster for station (92 km of electric track)
EFFICIENT EMU services
TRAINS • Use of electric rolling stock (EMUs)

52
 CHAPTER 3 :GO EXPANSION PROGRAM

Figure 3.8: Kitchener Reference Concept Design Frequency and Speed Improvements

53
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

BAR Barrie
Barrie Today
Today the Barrie Line is a well utilized passenger In 2018 expanded services were launched
rail service with 20,000 peak passengers. on the Barrie Line – including two-way, all-
The Barrie Line provides seven peak period day hourly services on the weekend.
trains in the morning connecting Barrie
Investment Summary
to Union Station, and seven trains in the
afternoon connecting Union Station to Barrie. GO Expansion will allow for significant
Throughout the day, there are hourly two-way investment along the length of the corridor
trains between Union Station and Aurora. as defined in Table 3.4 and Figure 3.9.

Table 3.4: GO Expansion Expansion Improvements to the Barrie Line

Program Element Performance Objectives Next Steps

MORE • Customers can board and • Improvements at: Downsview Park, Rutherford, Maple,
ACCESSIBLE alight faster, reducing trip King City, Aurora, Newmarket, East Gwillimbury,
STATIONS times by 2-5 minutes Bradford, Barrie South, Allandale Waterfront

• 226 weekday services • 68.2 km of new track, one bridge upgrade,

MORE one upgraded road/rail separation, one new
ALL-DAY • Detailed service plan pedestrian bridge, one new layover
SERVICE shown in Figure 3.7
• Peak service from Barrie to Union (4 tph, running
• A train every 15 minutes express from Aurora to Rutherford, reverse in PM
two-way, all-day between peak) using electric locomotives, 1 tph from Union to
Union Station and Aurora Allandale Waterfront using EMUs (reverse in PM peak),
SERVICE
IN BOTH • A train every 30 minutes in the and 4 tph between Aurora and Union using EMUs.
DIRECTIONS peak and every 60 minutes • Off-peak service between Allandale
throughout the day, evenings, Waterfront and Union (2 tph) and Aurora
and weekends between Barrie and Union (4 tph) using EMUs.
(Allandale) and Union Station
TRAINS EVERY
15 MINUTES

FASTER • Up to 8% faster for electric • Electrification from Union Station to Allandale

AND MORE locomotive services Waterfront (174 km of electrified track)
EFFICIENT
TRAINS • Up to 29% faster for EMU service • Use of electric rolling stock (EMUs and locomotives)

54
 CHAPTER 3 :GO EXPANSION PROGRAM

Figure 3.9: Barrie Reference Concept Design Frequency and Speed Improvements

55
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

STO Stouffville
Stouffville Today Investment Summary
Today the Stouffville Line has 17,000 peak GO Expansion will allow for significant
passengers. The Stouffville Line currently investment along the length of the corridor
provides a train every 30 minutes in the as defined in Table 3.5 and Figure 3.10.
peak direction- Lincolnville to Union
Station in the morning and Union Station
to Lincolnville in the afternoon. During the
day there are hourly trains in both directions
between Unionville and Union Station.

Table 3.5: GO Expansion Expansion Improvements to the Stouffville Line

Program Element Performance Objectives Next Steps

MORE • Customers can board and • Improvements at: Kennedy, Agincourt,

ACCESSIBLE alight faster, reducing trip Milliken, Unionville, Centennial, Markham,
STATIONS times by 2-5 minutes Mt. Joy, Stouffville, Licolnville

• 302 weekday services • 20 km of new track, one upgraded bridge, one

MORE new layover, two road/rail separation upgrades
ALL-DAY • Detailed service plan
SERVICE shown in Figure 3.8 • Peak service between Unionville and Union
Station (8 tph), service from Union to Lincolnville
• A train every 15 minutes (1 tph, reverse in PM peak) provided by EMUs,
between Unionville and and electric locomotive service from Lincolnville
Union Station two way all- to Union (3 tph, reverse in PM peak).
SERVICE
day and on weekends
IN BOTH
DIRECTIONS • Off-peak service between Mount Joy and Union (2 tph)
• Peak one way trains every and Unionville and Union (6 tph) provided by EMUs
twenty minutes from
Lincolnville to Union Station
in the AM Peak and Union
TRAINS EVERY
15 MINUTES

FASTER • Up to 8% faster for electric • Electrification from Union Station to

AND MORE locomotive services Lincolnville (204 km of electrified track)
EFFICIENT
TRAINS • Up to 29% faster for EMU service • Use of electric rolling stock (EMUs and locomotives)

56
 CHAPTER 3 :GO EXPANSION PROGRAM

Figure 3.10: Stouffville Reference Concept Design Frequency and Speed Improvements

57
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

LSE Lakeshore East

Lakeshore East Today

Today the Lakeshore East Line has over 40,000
peak passengers and over 13,000 off-peak
and counter-peak passengers making it the
second busiest GO Rail lines. The Lakeshore
East Line currently offers two-way, all-day service
between Union Station and Oshawa with trains
arriving every 15-20 minutes in the peak period
and every 30 minutes throughout the rest of
the day and on evenings and weekends. Table 3.6: GO Expansion Expansion Improvements to the Lakeshore East Line
Investment Summary
Program Element Performance Objectives Next Steps
GO Expansion will allow for significant
investment along the length of the corridor,
including complete electrification and MORE • Customers can board and • Improvements at: Danforth, Scarborough,
a consistent service pattern all day, as ACCESSIBLE alight faster, reducing trip Eglinton, Guildwood, Rouge Hill,
STATIONS times by 2-5 minutes Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa
defined in Table 3.6 and Figure 3.11.

• 179 weekday services • 35 km of new track, three bridge upgrades, one

MORE
ALL-DAY
new layover, one new pedestrian bridge
• Detailed service plan
SERVICE shown in Figure 3.9 • All-day service between Oshawa and Union (4 tph)
provided by EMUs with an additional peak only service
• Provide 15 minute peak from Oshawa to Union running express from Pickering
service at all stops and 10 (5 tph, reverse in PM peak) using Electric Locomotives
SERVICE minute express peak service
IN BOTH to Union Station, Pickering,
DIRECTIONS Ajax, Whitby, and Oshawa

TRAINS EVERY
15 MINUTES

• Electrification from Union Station to

FASTER • Up to 8% faster for electric
AND MORE Oshawa (92 km of electrified track)
locomotive services
EFFICIENT
• Use of electric rolling stock (EMUs
TRAINS • Up to 29% faster for EMU service
and diesel locomotives)

58
 CHAPTER 3 :GO EXPANSION PROGRAM

Figure 3.11: Lakeshore East Reference Concept Design Frequency and Speed Improvements

59
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

MIL Milton
Currently GO Rail operates peak service
to Union Station in the morning and to
Milton to the evening. Improvements
to Milton are not included in this
FBC. However, Metrolinx continues to
explore how to operate two-way all-day
service on this corridor with CP Rail.

RIC Richmond Hill

The 2015 GO RER Initial Business Case found • Lack of practical opportunities on the
a relatively weak case for frequent all-day alignment for interchange with TTC other
services on the corridor, and identified issues transit. The corridor passes under Line
that should be addressed before deciding 2 Subway, the Millwood Bridge with
on a development strategy for the corridor. intensive bus services, and the Eglinton
Crosstown LRT, but the vertical separation
Technical challenges include:
makes it difficult and expensive to provide
• Flooding in the lower Don River, which interchanges. Note that Oriole station is
affects most of the corridor from Richmond being relocated, and an effective interchange
Street to the Millwood Bridge will be provided with Line 4 Subway.
• Slow journey times due to indirect Challenges affecting demand
alignment and low track speeds and benefits include:
• CN Rail ownership of the corridor • Proposed parallel transit improvements
north of Old Cummer, and conflicts including Line 1 Subway extension
with intensive freight services at the to Richmond Hill, and the Downtown
Doncaster Diamond rail junction and on Relief Line to York Mills Road
the corridor north to Bloomington
• Competition from frequent 8
tph all-day service now planned
for the Stouffville corridor
• Low population density and
limited development potential
along most of the corridor

60
 CHAPTER 3 :GO Expansion Program

3.2 Reference Concept Design Process Assumptions

This section defines the process and Design Background Initial Business Case for Regional Express Rail
assumptions used to develop the RCD. These
The transformation of GO Rail into a Rapid Rail The potential benefits of improved rail
assumptions were set out based on significant
Network, with frequent all-day services, has led to the 2015 Initial Business Case for
analysis and design conducted by Metrolinx
been the subject of study and design since Regional Express Rail5, which evaluated five
from 2015-2018. This section includes:
commuter services were first piloted Since alternative technical strategies, with hourly
• Reference Concept Design 2010, Metrolinx has studied how electrification and quarter-hourly services all-day services
and other technologies could enable GO Rail using diesel locomotives, electric locomotives
• Design Background
to operate faster and more frequent all day and Electric Multiple Unites (EMUs).
• Design Objectives services, playing a greater role in addressing
The IBC suggested that electrified two-way
regional transportation needs while improving
• Business as Usual Definition all-day service offered the greatest benefits
financial performance. Studies included:
relative to costs. Moreover, the IBC showed
• Design Assumptions
• GO 2020 Plan (2008) that the lower operating costs of electric trains
and the higher revenues that generated by
• The Big Move (2008 Regional
increased ridership could enable GO Rail to
Transportation Plan for the GTHA)
reduce its operating subsidy. On the basis
• GO Electrification Study (2010) of the IBC, Metrolinx proceeded with further
analysis of “Scenario 5” (which included
• Regional Express Rail Initial
electrification and frequent two-way all-day
Business Case (2014-2015)
service on the Lakeshore West, Kitchener,
• 2041 Regional Transportation Plan (2018) Barrie, Stouffville, and Lakeshore East corridors
These studies demonstrated how expanding within Metrolinx’s stage gate process).
and improving the GO Rail service could
realize significant potential benefits to
travellers and the region as a whole.

5 Initial Business Case for Regional Express Rail,

Metrolinx, 2015 (http://www.metrolinx.com/en/
regionalplanning/projectevaluation/benefitscases/
GO_RER_Initial_Business_Case_EN.pdf)

61
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

What’s New in the FBC Reference Design Objectives

Concept Design?
A set of objectives were set out to guide
Since 2015, Metrolinx has developed detailed the design of a refined concept for
plans for implementation of Scenario 5 (shown Scenario 5 from the IBC. The core principles
in Figure 3.12), culminating in a RCD that is the used to develop reference designs and
basis for advancing GO Expansion through the services for GO Expansion were:
final steps of the stage-gate process towards
• Build on Best Practice — developed
procurement. This has led to refined cost
by drawing from exceptional rail
estimates based on a refined infrastructure
systems around the world
and service specification compared to the
IBC, which was based on preliminary analysis. • Affordable — deliverable within available
The core service specification in the RCD is budget and funding programs while keeping
informed by Scenario 5 with higher frequency fares at a level comparable to historic trends
trains and express services on some corridors.
• Efficient — with revenues reducing
Metrolinx has also made provision for operating subsidy requirements and
several additional stations to provide better potentially contributing to capital costs
connections to local transit and to support
• Competitive — with service frequencies and
planned development. In parallel to developing
travel times that are attractive not just for peak
the FBC and RCD, Metrolinx is exploring the
trips to downtown Toronto but also for many
development of extensions to Kitchener-
trips across the region, midday, and weekends
Waterloo, Niagara, and Bowmanville, while also
developing a program to add new stations to • Fully integrated — connected with
the GO Rail network. Provision is being made to other transit across the region
include all of these within the GO Rail network as • Sustainable — using efficient trains and
they proceed through the stage-gate process. supporting urban development that
is attractive to people and businesses
with a smaller carbon footprint
• Expandable — with potential to
increase capacity to meet the needs
of the region into the next century
• Deliverable — the program can be built
without severe disruption to operation
of existing GO Transit rail services

62
 CHAPTER 3 :GO EXPANSION PROGRAM

Figure 3.12: GO Expansion Design Timeline

2016 • New Station Analysis Business as Usual Definition

20165:
Development of an • Provision for Kitchener, Niagara Business as Usual (BAU) refers to the future state
Expanded Scenario and Bowmanville Extensions of the GTHA’s transportation network without
Development of an GO Expansion. The BAU is the comparator
Expanded Scenario 5: against which the incremental costs and

2016 benefits of the GO Expansion Program are

2017
• Selection of Design Build Finance Operate measured to understand the overall value of

2016
Development of an Maintain (DBFOM) contract model to deliver
the On-Corridor works and services and case for GO Expansion. Generally, the

2017
Expanded Scenario 5: BAU scenario has been defined to include
Additional
Development
program of an
optimization:
• Route and Corridor Utilization Studies (RCUS)
investments and service enhancements that:
Expanded Scenario 5: optimize infrastructure and train service
Additional
• Were planned or committed prior to
program optimization: • Reference Concept Design and Optimization

2017
or independently of GO Expansion.
• Reviewing the potential of Hydrogen

2018 Powered Trains (Hydrail) • Would be required to meet underlying

2017
Additional demand growth, following the commuter
program
2018
optimization:
Service commitments
and increases added
Additional
rail service structure that GO Rail has
used for the past half century.
Service commitments
program to the BAU:
optimization:
and increases added • Reference Case defined • Would be required as provision for

2018
to the BAU: • Level Boarding technical strategy other committed or proposed projects,
and Business Case developed such as the Eglinton Crosstown LRT,
2019
2018
Service commitments
and increases added
• Higher frequency services for Bramalea— Hurontario LRT, or Hamilton LRT.

2019
Unionville Business Case initiated
Refining the GO • Would be required, if GO Expansion was not
Service to the BAU:
commitments
Expansion Concept • Preliminary Design Business Cases implemented, to maintain acceptable levels
and increases added for new stations published
Refining the GO of comfort, safety, and reliability on the GO
to the BAU:
Expansion Concept • Shortlisting potential project delivery partners Rail system (capacity increases are assumed

2019 to be required when demand in the 3-hour

AM peak, from stations 20 minutes or further

2019
Refining the GO from Union, exceeds 100% of seats offered).
Expansion Concept
• Request for Proposals for GO Expansion issued Key assumptions for what is included in the
Refining the GO
Expansion Concept
to short listed potential project partners BAU scenario are described in Table 3.7.

63
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Table 3.7: BAU Assumptions used in this FBC

Assumption Type Core Asssumptions

Design Assumptions
• Achieving full disabled access in accordance to the Accessibility
for Ontarians with Disabilities Act, 2005 (AODA) at stations A set of working assumptions were used to
Committed prior to • Other station enhancements to meet Metrolinx design standards develop, model, and test the RCD for the
or independent of • Peak services extended from and to new stations at FBC. These assumptions are based on:
GO Expansion West Harbour, Gormley and Confederation
• Operating and capital delivery
• Hourly mid-day services to Mt Pleasant, Aurora and Unionville, and
experience in the GTHA.
associated infrastructure (mostly signalling and track)
• Historic GO Rail project delivery
Other GO Rail projects • Expansion of stations and station car parks and performance.
in the BAU are required
• Fleet expansion and associated train storage and maintenance facilities
to meet underlying • International best practice.
demand growth • Some additional noise walls
These assumptions are central to determining
• New stations at Mount Dennis and Caledonia, and a rebuilt station at the overall feasibility of GO Expansion
Provisions for other Kennedy, as part of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT (TTC Line 5) as well as estimating its potential costs
committed or • Rebuilding of the 401 tunnel, which is required to protect for future and benefits. This sub section provides
proposed projects development of High Speed Rail and higher frequency services beyond background on these assumptions and
Bramalea that are not included in the current GO Expansion scope their influence on the GO Expansion RCD
development process. Assumptions include:
• Completion of the Union Station concourse reconstruction
• Completion of the Union Station Rail Corridor (USRC) re-signalling project
• Customer Experience
• The Union Station Expansion Project, to provide 3 new south platforms • Train Service
Investments to maintain • Reconstruction and reconfiguration of the Union Station platforms • Train Performance
safety, reliability to provide greater capacity, comfort and safety
and comfort
• Provision of a signal enforcement system, also referred to as Enhanced Train Control • Phasing
• Upgrading to level crossings, and replacement of some • Union Station Planning
level crossings with road rail grade separations
• Other works required to maintain GO facilities in a “State of Good Repair”
• Track and On-Corridor
• Other Rail Operations
Other network
assumptions included • Station Accessibility
in the Greater Golden • Completion of the Eglinton and Finch LRTs
Horseshoe Model
• Modelling
• Construction of the Scarborough Subway extension to
(GGHM) used to McCowan, replacing the Scarborough RT
estimate demand growth
in the BAU scenario

64
 CHAPTER 3 :GO Expansion Program

Customer Experience Metrolinx’s Design Excellence Team ensures There are some specific exceptions
the Customer Value Proposition and Customer to these assumptions:
This FBC assumes an optimized Customer
Experience elements are implemented across
Value Proposition, to ensure the GO • All-day services beyond Burlington and
the network in the areas of architecture, site and
Rail system is accessible and attractive Bramalea, and over the Milton corridor, are
landscape, universal accessibility, sustainable,
to a wide array of potential passengers, constrained by CN Rail and CP Rail freight.
interior and industrial design which includes
based on the following assumptions: The Reference Design does not include any
integrated art and harmonized wayfinding.
service increases on these lines, except for
• Faster journey times and two-way, Primarily qualitative, these influences can
peak direction services in the peak hours.
all-day service on select lines. have an impact on ridership by improving
Future Business Case analysis could be
the customer experience. As the qualitative
• Passenger seating standards, are used to justify further double tracking.
impacts are quantified these may bring
similar to existing conditions.
additional factors to current assumptions. • All-day services beyond Aurora and Unionville
• The service plan should provide seated are constrained by the capacity of corridors
Train Service
capacity in the 3-hour AM peak to match that will remain mostly single track.
forecast demand for all longer journeys, Determining the optimum service pattern
• Due to the constrained corridor and limited
defined as journeys to Union, originating on a regional rail system such as GO is an
development that is planned, double tracking
beyond the city of Toronto and that 50% iterative process (as shown in Figure 3.13),
is not contemplated beyond Unionville.
of the seated capacity shall be provided taking account of passenger demand, track
in the peak hour. Note this does not mean capacity, and fleet capability and costs. The Where possible, consideration is given to
all passengers will have a seat, but all general service aspirations for GO Expansion operating express or limited-stop services from
passengers have the possibility of a seat have been developed based on international outer stations, to offer even faster journey times
if they are willing to alter their journey experience, local markets, and the infrastructure (express services are noted in Section 3.1).
times within the AM peak period. that can be provided at reasonable cost.
Specifically, some examples are: Figure 3.13: GO Expansion
• The service plan provides seated capacity
Service and Infrastructure Design Process
through all off-peak hours and in the • Peak services on all corridors should be
contra peak, equal to at least 20% of increased as required to carry underlying
the AM peak hour capacity, or 10% demand, consistent with the seating policy.
of the 3-hour AM peak capacity. Ridership Train Fleet
• All-day services on inner sections of GO-
• Further fare integration between the Toronto owned corridors that run through urbanized
Transit Commission (TTC) and GO Rail. areas with more people and jobs should
be every 15 minutes, all-day, or better.
• Services to urban centres outside Infrastructure Train Service
the GTHA will be more frequent than Capability Levels
today with hourly or half hourly service
depending on capability of infrastructure
and the potential for two-way demand.
65
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Train Performance
Trip times in the FBC are based on existing
published journey times, with proportional Table 3.8: Train Types and Train Performance Used in the Reference Concept Design
adjustments for different types of trains
as discussed in Table 3.3. The expected Speed improvements relative to
trip time savings range from 7% to 29% 1 Diesel loco with 12 bi-levels
depending on train type and service, as
shown in Table 3.8. These run times are
Train Type Description Illustration Train Stopping Express
based on train simulation and include Configuration
allowances for dwell times and regulation.
Phasing The existing GO Rail 1 Diesel
train fleet uses diesel loco and 6 13.0% 11.0%
This FBC is prepared on the working assumption, Diesel locomotive hauled bi-levels
used for modelling and analysis, that all locomotive trains, which will see
hauled continued use in the
corridors are upgraded simultaneously with trains reference concept for 1 Diesel
all new services commencing between 2027- some services (including loco and 12 0.0% 0.0%
bi-levels
2028. However, in practice, delivery may Milton and Richmond)
be phased between 2025-2030. Metrolinx
and their delivery partner will establish a 2 Diesel
Electric locomotives will locos and 13.0% 11.0%
specific schedule during the procurement be used on electrified 12 bi-levels
process. Metrolinx is currently reviewing the Electric lines and offer improved
introduction of increased services with existing Locomotive acceleration and
stopping compared to 1 Electric
fleet in advance of program completion. diesel locomotives. loco and 12 8.0% 7.0%
bi-levels
Union Station
Union Station is the heart of the GO network, EMUs do not have a
and about 90% of GO’s 210,000 weekday trips locomotive – rather a
combination of self
start or finish there. Union Station was built Electric propelled carriages
in the early twentieth century for use by long Multiple and carriages without Bi-level EMU 29.0% 25.8%
distance passenger trains that would typically Unit (EMU) motors are connected in
spend an hour or more in the station. GO has a train. This train type has
the fastest acceleration
incrementally modified the station into its current and stopping.
form, which is more suited for a commuter
railway. GO operates about 40 trains through the
station in the AM peak hour and is expanding
and redeveloping passenger concourses with
improved access to the PATH underground
pedestrian network and the subway network.

66
 CHAPTER 3 :GO Expansion Program

Without changes to its operating practices Track and On-Corridor Assumptions Other Rail Operations
and physical configuration, Union
Metrolinx has developed a set of The GO Rail network shares track with
Station will be unable to accommodate
assumptions for the RCD’s improvements other operators for specific segments.
increased demand into the future.
to tracks and on-corridor features: The RCD assumes that both freight and
This FBC assumes further improvements to VIA Rail will continue to operate:
• Expanded track – the RCD allows for
enable Union Station to accommodate Rapid
additional tracks to corridors where track • Freight – The rail network was originally
Rail style services. As part of GO Expansion,
capacity impedes speed or frequency. It is built to principally carry freight. CN Rail
the track layout is assumed to be modified,
assumed that existing track and permanent continues to serve customers using track
with higher speed ladders, and with fewer
way (culverts and drains, embankments, in the GTHA and has rights to do so under
tracks. Wider platforms will have additional
bridges, retaining walls, sub-grade and the sale and purchase agreements with
vertical circulation, allowing 10 trains to load,
ballast) are well maintained and suitable for Metrolinx. In addition, the Kitchener corridor
per hour. The RCD explicitly assumes:
more intensive operation without significant between Bramalea (Halwest Junction) and
• Ten tracks with wide platforms upgrading. Although the frequency of Georgetown (Silver Junction) continues to
for twelve car trains. train services will increase, the maximum be owned by CN Rail. The Milton corridor is
axle loads will remain the same or less. owned by CP Rail and functions as part of
• Additional escalators, elevators,
their Toronto-Chicago mainline. Metrolinx
and stairs to platforms. • Electrification – the RCD assumes a 25 kV
is currently in discussions with CN Rail and
AC overhead system designed by Metrolinx.
• Provision for additional passengers bridges CP Rail as to how their needs can continue
Electrification is expected to allow for more
on the east and west end of the platforms. to be met while allowing development
cost efficient faster trains with increased
• Two bay platforms, west-facing, for of frequent all-day passenger services.
acceleration and stopping capabilities.
four-car UP Express and GO trains. Improved acceleration and stopping in turn • VIA Rail - GO Rail tracks are also used by
improves travel times and can attract more VIA Rail. VIA operates 15 trains per day each
• Four bay platforms, east facing, for
ridership. Metrolinx has also completed way over the Lakeshore East corridor, five
eight-car VIA trains and GO trains.
the statutory approvals process, including trains each way over the Lakeshore West to
With these improvements, capacity will be environmental assessments as required for London via Brantford and to Niagara, and two
about 100 trains per hour, more than twice systemwide electrification, and has negotiated trains each way over the Kitchener corridor
the current level. This will be sufficient for connection agreements with Hydro One. to London. VIA also operates the Toronto to
projected traffic volumes to about 2050. Vancouver train, mostly serving tourists and
• Signalling – the RCD assumes costs to install a
Metrolinx expects to give the delivery operating twice each week. The FBC assumes
new signalling system throughout the GO Rail
partner considerable freedom to optimize a similar level of VIA service into the future.
network including some form of Enhanced
the track layout at Union Station, and Train Control, which will provide automatic
develop a phasing plan to implement it. signal enforcement and work zone protection.

67
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Station Accessibility Modelling

The RCD assumes that station accessibility In order to support the optimization of the The background growth rates that drive
will be improved in two ways: GO Expansion program and creation of this the forecasts are based on travel demand
Full Business Case document, Metrolinx has forecasts from a separate model: the Greater
• Improved multi-modal access to stations –
developed a sophisticated modelling platform Golden Horseshoe Model (GGHM). The
today, many customers access GO Rail using
that provides ridership, economic, and financial GGHM is a macro-level, regional demand
park and ride facilities. Metrolinx is currently
outputs (e.g., off-peak ridership, time-savings model that provides both traffic and transit
developing strategies and approaches to
benefits, benefit-cost ratios, revenue) for the forecasts for the 2031 horizon year, based
support continued station accessibility –
GO Rail network. The model also provides on regional transportation network and
including expanded multi-modal access via
a robust process for testing scenarios and land use growth assumptions. The GGHM
walking, biking, ride-sharing, or local transit
sensitivities to inputs (e.g., fleet performance, has been successfully used as part of past
agencies. The RCD assumes that all forecasted
maintenance costs, service concepts) to fully regional and rapid transit corridor forecasting
ridership is able to access the station either
explore characteristics of the program and exercises, including the original RER Initial
through park and ride or other modes.
to mitigate potential risks to performance. Business Case, the recent new stations
• Upgraded platforms to speed up boarding preliminary design business cases (PDBCs),
The model is a direct-demand model. Future
and alighting from trains – GO currently and the 2041 Regional Transportation Plan.
ridership is forecasted by applying GO-station-
operates a “low platform” system, with
level annual background growth rates to existing
a raised “mini-platform” provided for The economic and financial outputs generated
boarding count data by station. The model then
wheelchair and stroller access to a single by the model are consistent with Metrolinx's
uses elasticities to grow this ridership based
set of doors into the “accessibility” car. This Business Case Guidance. This guidance provides
on the generalized journey time savings that
is a practical, low cost way to comply with a robust approach for assessing the benefits,
are provided by the GO Expansion services.
accessibility requirements while avoiding costs, and impacts of a range of potential
conflicts with express trains, VIA Rail, and transportation investments. Metrolinx has
freight trains that also run over the network. published this guidance on our website at
Many rail systems have introduced level https://www.metrolinx.com/
boarding which allows customers to board en/regionalplanning/projectevaluation/
trains without steps. Metrolinx has developed benefitscases/benefits_case_analyses.asp
a technical strategy to raise platforms to
provide faster boarding and alighting.

68
 CHAPTER 3 :GO Expansion Program

3.3
Program
Interdependencies and
Parallel Projects
GO Expansion is being considered alongside
a range of other projects and programs.
These “additional considerations” may
impact the delivery, costs, and benefits of
GO Expansion are summarized in Table
3.9. Each case in the FBC discusses how
these interdependencies may influence or
impact GO Expansion’s performance.

69
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Table 3.9: Interdependencies with Other Projects

Key Background Impact on GO Next Steps

Considerations Expansion FBC

GO Rail extensions will expand the GO Rail network further to serve new
Continue to assess impact on GO
GO Rail communities such as Kitchener, Bowmanville, or Niagara. These extensions are
Not Included in FBC Expansion during the development
Extensions currently under active development – including design, Business Case analysis, and
of rail extension Business Cases.
discussions with freight rail operators and communities along the corridors.

Transforming GO's service model to enable customers to make ticketing, fare, and
Included in both the BAU Continue to develop the self-
Self Serve Strategy service choices without direct interaction with GO Rail staff. This enables a more seamless
and GO Expansion serve Business Cases.
experience, while changing front line staffing requirements for GO Rail stations.

Developing a strategy to improve access to GO Stations by all modes of travel.

Station Access Improved accessibility will reduce the effort required to access GO Rail and Included in both the BAU
Continue to implement the strategy.
Strategy increase ridership. Station access improvements will also reduce the need and GO Expansion
to expand parking as more travellers will use transit or active modes.

The increased train service being implemented as part of the GO Expansion program
will make living and working near GO stations more attractive. Metrolinx owns large
parcels of land along the seven rail corridors in which GO operates and much of this once
affordable and underutilized land will now be the focus of mixed use redevelopment.
As part of the GO Expansion program, Metrolinx will identify Transit Oriented
Transit Oriented Not included in Continue to pursue TOD opportunities
Development (TOD) opportunities across the network with the aim of capturing the
Development modelling analysis alongside GO Expansion.
uplift in land value, driving new ridership, and improving station access and customer
experience. TOD will further align to the transit-supportive policies of the Growth
Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe and Metrolinx’s own Regional Transportation
Plan, which identify dense mixed use environments around higher order transit as key
measures to reduce traffic congestion, greenhouse gas emissions, and journey times.

The Government of Ontario is developing plans for a High Speed Rail (HSR) Continue to review how the
Not included in
High Speed Rail between Toronto and Windsor. GO Expansion will consider passive provision for projects impact each other and
modelling analysis
future HSR developments and explore synergies between the two projects. identify potential synergies.

VIA Rail is currently exploring how to increase service frequencies on the Windsor
High Frequency to Quebec City corridor, with a focus on train service between Toronto and Not included in Continue to review how the
Rail Montreal. This project is currently under active development and consideration modelling analysis projects impact each other.
and would make use of the Union Station Rail Corridor and Union Station.

Hydrail has been proposed as an alternative to conventional electrification

– allowing the performance parameters of electric trains without the Not included in Further analysis on the role of Hydrail
Hydrail
need to develop electrification infrastructure. An initial feasibility study modelling analysis within GO Expansion is underway.
for Hydrail has been completed, with further work underway.

Metrolinx is exploring the addition of new stations to the GO Rail Review benefits and costs of potential
Included as a separate
New Stations network. Separate Business Cases for the new station program will new stations through Metrolinx's
modelling test
be prepared in parallel to this FBC for GO Expansion. Business Case process.

70
CHAPTER 3 :GO EXPANSION PROGRAM

71
 4
Strategic Case

72
Overview
The Strategic Case describes how GO Expansion will benefit the GTHA The strategic benefits have been identified across these categories
based on the strategic framework described in Chapter 2. The strategic through analytic modelling, design review, and policy analysis. The
value of the GO Expansion program is based on four key benefits: findings for GO Expansion are consistent with those realized by
other significant investments in Rapid Rail or commuter rail systems
• Transportation Benefits – improvements to rail, including internationally. The analysis included in subsequent sections of the
new services at times of the day that are currently not Strategic Case provides estimates and discussion of the specific benefits
served, allowing more people to make use of the system. across these categories that GO Expansion can realize for the GTHA.
As speed is improved, existing and new passengers will
benefit and demand will also increase at existing stations.
• Quality of Life – faster trains and more service throughout How is the chapter structured?
the day contribute to people being able to use transit to get
from where they are to where they want to go. As the region Section Content
becomes more accessible, people will have wider access to a A review of how the proposed
range of activities, institutions, and services through transit. investment in Chapter 3 changes
• Economic Prosperity – reliable transportation is essential for a 4.1 Transportation Benefits transportation in the region
thriving economy. Increased service, expanded accessibility, with respect to travel times,
accessibility, and ridership.
and faster trains mean reduced commute times and improved
connectivity between urban growth centres and regional
A review of how GO Expansion will
cores, which can support further investment and urban
improve quality of life in the region
development. In addition, direct investment in rail delivery
4.2 Quality of Life Benefits by increasing overall accessibility
is a driver of job creation, including new skilled labourers. and reducing the health impacts
• Protected Environment – more efficient trains will of regional transportation.
reduce the environmental impact of each train trip,
while faster more frequent services will attract new A review of how GO Expansion
augments regional prosperity
passengers and reduce the number of auto trips in the Economic Prosperity and
region – further reducing pollution and emissions. 4.3 Development Benefits
by connecting people to jobs,
employment hubs, and growth areas
with faster and more frequent services.

A review of how GO Expansion

Protected Environment
4.4 Benefits
will lead to a more sustainable
regional transportation system.

A summary of the Strategic

4.5 Conclusions
Case for GO Expansion.

73
tcomesGO RAIL EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Strategic Case Summary

Ten Reasons the GTHA will benefit from GO Expansion
INVESTMENT BENEFITS

More
All-Day
Service

Service in
Both Directions T R A N S P O R TAT I O N QUALITY OF LIFE ECONOMIC PROTECTED
PROSPERITY ENVIRONMENT
Trains at
DOUBLING RAIL NEW REGIONAL FASTER COMMUTES — CLEANER AIR AND

1 5 7 10
least every
RIDERSHIP — CONNECTIONS — GO Expansion will reduce ENERGY CONSERVATION
15 minutes
GO Expansion will more Over 28% of the GTHA commuter travel times — GO Expansion will
than double GO Rail’s will have access to a GO by an average of 10 reduce Criteria Air
Faster
annual ridership – which Rail station with two-way, minutes per trip, leading to Contaminants, which
and More
will exceed 200 million all day-service, which will increased productivity and impact human health, and
Efficient Fleet
by 2055 - while providing reduce the stress of travel an easier commute to work, reduce 6 megatonnes
a region-wide Rapid Rail and connect people to with over 32% of jobs in the of Greenhouse Gas
More Accessible Network that is connected where they want to go region located within 3.5 Emissions that contribute
Stations to subways, LRTs, BRTs, when they want to travel. km of a GO Rail station with to climate change.
and local bus systems. two-way all-day service.

An Expanded CAPACITY FOR A A HEALTHIER REGION CATALYZING REGIONAL

Union Station
2 GROWING REGION —
GO Expansion will allow
GO Rail to expand its
6 WITH A SAFER
TRANSPORTATION
NETWORK — GO
8 DEVELOPMENT — GO Expansion
will reduce the travel time between
Urban Growth Centres and
capacity over time in line Expansion will reduce Downtown Toronto by 10 minutes
with growing population the number of trips in the peak and up to 25 minutes in
and employment made by car leading to the off-peak, increasing the overall
in the region. 7,000 fewer collisions attractiveness of these centres for
by 2055 and up to 15 investment and development.
million more trips per
A SELF-SUSTAINING RAILWAY — CREATING NEW JOBS

3 9
year made by walking
GO Rail’s annual revenues will or cycling, leading to ACROSS THE REGION — GO
exceed operating costs (revenue/ a healthier region. Expansion will lead to 830,000
op costs is equal to 110% over the new jobs per year in construction
lifecycle of the project), removing and supply chain industries.
the need for operating subsidy,
after GO Expansion is delivered.

A RAILWAY THAT MEETS

4 CUSTOMER NEEDS —
GO Expansion will provide
services that meet and exceed
customer needs by addressing
today’s travellers key pain points.
74
 CHAPTER 4 :STRATEGIC CASE
C

4.1 Transportation Benefits

1 Ridership increases from faster, integrated,

and connected rail services
As discussed in Chapter 3, the GO Expansion

2 A resilient and reliable network with

program will channel over $20 billion to
deliver a transformational package of
infrastructure and service improvements
that will lead to a faster and more frequent
capacity for now and the future
rail service. The key transportation
benefits realized by the project are:

3 A self sustaining railway

4 A railway that meets customer needs

75
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Benefit With investment, total annual ridership on

1 Ridership increases from faster, the GO Rail network will exceed

integrated, and connected rail services 200 million by 2055.

Today, GO Rail corridors spread across Figure 4.1: GO Rail Annual Ridership With and Without GO Expansion
the GTHA, providing good coverage and
connections to most of the region. However, not 225225
all corridors offer two-way service or all-day and

RIDERSHIP (MILLIONS)
weekend service, which has limited the system 175175
from reaching its true ridership potential.. GO EXPANSION
125125
What are GO Expansion's ridership impacts?
75 75
GO Expansion will transform GO Rail to provide WITHOUT GO EXPANSION
25 25
two-way, all-day service across the network at
0 2017
faster speeds, which will enable ridership to -25
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

increase by 60% by 2031 as shown in Table 4.1. GO Expansion BAU

Total annual ridership on the GO Rail network Table 4.1: Rail Ridership Growth with GO Expansion
will exceed 200 million by 2055 compared to
125 million without GO Expansion (shown in
Annual 2017 2017 2017 2031 2031 2031 Ridership
Figure 4.1). This change in ridership reflects Ridership Peak Off-Peak, Total Peak Off-Peak, Total Percent
over 295,000 new daily passengers (compared (millions) Ridership Contra-Peak, Ridership Ridership Contra-Peak, Ridership Change
to ridership without GO Expansion), which will and Weekend and Weekend 2017-2031
make GO Rail one of the busiest passenger Ridership Ridership
railways in North America (as shown in Figure
Lakeshore West 11.6 6.1 17.7 22.5 15.3 37.8 113%
4.2) with over 630 thousand daily trips.
This ridership growth will also include Lakeshore East 9 4.7 13.7 23.9 14.7 38.6 181%
new customers who make use of new
two-way all-day service in combination Milton 7 - 7 9.3 - 9.3 33%
with bus, walking, or cycling trips with
GO Rail to access more of the region. Kitchener 5.2 2.9 8 19.5 25.1 44.6 395%

Barrie 4.5 0.1 4.6 14 14.1 28.1 505%

Richmond Hill 2.5 - 2.5 3.8 - 3.8 54%

Stouffville 3.2 0.7 3.9 10.1 6.3 16.5 323%

GO Rail
42.9 14.5 57.4 103.2 75.5 178.7 211%
Network
76
 CHAPTER 4 :STRATEGIC CASE

Figure 4.2: GO Rail Ridership Compared to Other North American Passenger Railways
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
WEEKDAY RIDERSHIP

450,000
400,000
350,000 Figure 4.3 illustrates how this demand
300,000 is distrbuted by time of travel – after GO

POST-EXPANSION
250,000 Expansion comes online, off-peak demand is
200,000 forecast to be comparable to peak demand.
This highlights the potential market that the

EXISTING
DEMAND
150,000
100,000 current commuter rail focused services do not
50,000 serve. Figures 4.4 and 4.5 shows where this
0 ridership is distributed in the network in the
peak and off-peak. Growth is most significant
on lines that upgrade to two-way all-day
Southern
California
San Francisco &
Santa Clara
Greater
Montreal
Philadelphia &
Delaware
Greater
Boston
Greater Toronto
and Hamilton
Chicago
Metropolitan
New Jersey,
New York &
New York City
& Long Island
Greater Toronto
and Hamilton service, such as Stouffville, where passengers
Valley Region Valley Region Area Pennsylvania Region
benefit from new travel opportunities that the
Note: Post expansion number reflects year 2031 current service structure does not provide.

Figure 4.3: GO Rail Ridership After GO Expansion by Time of Day

Realizing Ridership Gains

250250 Forecasts illustrate how GO Expansion

has the potential to significantly increase
ridership. This ridership can be realized by
200200 ensuring GO Rail operates at the speeds and
frequencies specified in this FBC; however
other factors are essential to realizing this
RIDERSHIP (MILLIONS)

benefit. Ridership is also dependent on:

RIdership on GO Rail (millions)

150150
• Ensuring station access for a range of modes,
including walking, cycling, and local transit
100100
• Providing a competetive customer experience
that evolves over time with customer needs
5050 • Managing development near stations
• Ensuring services are punctual and reliable
0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055
• Developing the 2041 RTP's Frequent
2017 2020 2025 Peak AM
2030
Peak PM
2035
Off-peak (weekdays)Off-peak (weekends)
2040
Contra-peak AM Contra-peak PM
2045 2050 2055 Rapid Transit Network alongside
GO Expansion to provide additional
PEAK AM PEAK PM OFF-PEAK OFF-PEAK CONTRA-PEAK CONTRA-PEAK connections and integrated services
WEEKDAYS WEEKENDS AM PM

Note: These graphics assume all services come online in 2027-2028.

77
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 4.4: GO Rail Ridership Change in Peak Period Ridership After GO Expansion is Implemented, 2031
(reflective of ridership after program is fully implemented)

DAILY STATION % CHANGE ALLANDALE

RIDERSHIP (2031) FROM BAU (2031)
BARRIE SOUTH

>16,001 INCREASE OVER 80% BRADFORD

EAST GWILLIMBURY
INCREASE 40-80%
8,001 - 16,000 NEWMARKET
LINCOLNVILLE

INCREASE 20-40% STOUFFVILLE

4,001 - 8,000
AURORA
INCREASE 10-20% B LO O M I N GTO N MOUNT JOY

2,001 - 4,000 GORMLEY MARKHAM

INCREASE 0-10% KING CITY RICHMOND
HILL CENTENNIAL

1,001 - 2,000 MAPLE UNIONVILLE

NO CHANGE LANGSTAFF

MILLIKEN
0 - 1000 NEW STATION RUTHERFORD

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ST

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ALDERSHOT

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 CHAPTER 4 :Strategic Case

Figure 4.5: GO Rail Ridership Change in Off-Peak Ridership After GO Expansion is Implemented, 2055
(reflective of ridership after program is fully implemented)

DAILY STATION % CHANGE ALLANDALE

RIDERSHIP (2055) FROM BAU (2055)
BARRIE SOUTH

>16,001 INCREASE OVER 80% BRADFORD

EAST GWILLIMBURY
INCREASE 40-80%
8,001 - 16,000 NEWMARKET LINCOLNVILLE

INCREASE 20-40% STOUFFVILLE

4,001 - 8,000
AURORA
INCREASE 10-20% B LO O M I N GTO N MOUNT JOY

2,001 - 4,000 GORMLEY MARKHAM

INCREASE 0-10% KING CITY RICHMOND
HILL CENTENNIAL

1,001 - 2,000 UNIONVILLE

NO CHANGE MAPLE
LANGSTAFF

MILLIKEN
0 - 1000 NEW STATION
RUTHERFORD
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H A M I LT O N WEST HARBOUR
79
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Benefit

2 A resilient and reliable network with GO Expansion will provide

capacity for now and the future enough capacity

The current GO Rail network provides high Each train added can carry as many passengers
to serve growing
quality peak service but has limited off-
peak service. In addition, Union Station is
as a new lane of highway or nearly two
subway trains. Two key constraints will be
demand past 2055.
becoming a bottleneck on the network and addressed to enable GO Rail to expand
has crowded platforms (impacting passenger its capacity as needed into the future:
mobility) and a congested rail corridor.
• Union Station is being rebuilt with 10 wide • Track and Signalling constraints on the
The GO Expansion program evaluated in this platforms, each long enough for a 12 car bi- network will also be addressed with a solution
Business Case was designed to deliver a system level train and sufficient vertical circulation to to be determined by OnCorr to meet the
with the capacity to meet the needs of the GTHA accommodate future demand. Two platforms requirements specified by Metrolinx: typically
for the foreseeable future, through to 2055, may be required for use by Intercity Long 6 to 12 trains per hour, per track, will be
but with capability to support growth even Distance Rail. Assuming 16 tph at each of the required initially, rising to 16 trains on the
into the next century as the GTHA continues to 8 platforms for GO use, and 1,800 passengers Lakeshore East by 2055. However, many
grow. While the majority of capital investment per train, the station could handle 230,000 regional rail systems operate 24 trains per
will occur in the 2020s, this investment will passengers per hour, or over 500,000 through track, per hour; some achieve even more,
allow GO Rail to more reliably accommodate the peak period, about 5 times the current though segregation with other operations
significant increases in transportation traffic. New stations at Spadina, Exhibition, such as VIA Rail or freight is likely to be
demand as the region continues to grow. and East Harbour can provide relief to Union required. With two inbound tracks from the
Station, where the capacity of sidewalks Lakeshore West and Kitchener, and one
How does GO Expansion enable resiliency
and the PATH system may prove to be from each of the other five corridors, there
and future network capacity?
more of a constraint than the GO tracks and will be nine tracks with potential capacity for
Transforming GO Rail into a Rapid Rail system platforms after GO Expansion is delivered. 216 train arrivals. Changes will be required
with two-way all-day fast and frequent service to track, power, signalling and storage, but
allows GO Rail to serve as an alternative for the potential capacity within the existing
other transit modes - including rapid transit and corridors is significant and can be utilized
highways - to access more of the region. This to meet growing demands into the future.
means passengers have more choice. If other
services become congested or suffer disruptions,
today GO Rail may not be an an alternative. In
the future, GO Rail will give customers additional
options to travel across the region. Additionally,
GO Expansion allows GO Rail the flexibility to
add more capacity to meet growth beyond 2055.

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Benefit

3 A self sustaining railway

Today, some GO Rail services may collect By 2031,

enough fares to cover all their operating costs.
For example, a train with 2,000 passengers
is likely to be subsidy neutral. However, the
GO Rail revenues are forecasted to cover
network as a whole requires operating subsidy.
all operating costs with fare box revenue.
Increased revenues generated by new
passengers and lower operating costs from
electric trains mean that after 2031 GO
Expansion will enable GO Rail to operate Figure 4.6: Comparison of Operating Costs and Revenue for GO Rail in the BAU and with GO Expansion
without operating subsidy. By 2055, revenue is
forecast to exceed 130% of operating costs.
140% WITHOUT GO EXPANSION
How does GO Expansion reduce WITH GO EXPANSION
subsidy requirements? 120%
BREAK EVEN

The operating costs and resources to provide

100%
a single train service (example: an 8-car train)
are broadly the same no matter how many
80%
passengers are carried. While some costs will
vary with demand, most costs are fixed and
60%
related to the propulsion, staffing, and wear
and tear. This means that if more customers
40%
make use of the train, the costs of providing
the trip are divided among more travellers.
20%
As the number of travellers increases, the cost of
each trip will decrease and the overall efficiency 0%
of the train service will increase. GO Expansion
2015 2020 2025 2035 2040 2045 2050
will increase ridership throughout the day and
use high efficiency electric trains on select
routes, which have significantly lower operating
costs per train km. This will lead to complete
cost recovery by 2031 (shown in Figure 4.6). The
railway will become self sustaining, releasing
previous GO Rail subsidy for other uses.

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Benefit

4 A railway that meets customer needs

For many travellers, travel in the GTHA can be How does GO Expansion realize GO Expansion will augment
slow, stressful, and take away valuable time improved customer experience? customer experience
that could be spent on other pursuits. GO
Expansion will provide significant upgrades
to travel time and frequency/timetables that
GO Expansion will transform GO Rail into a
Rapid Rail system that will benefit customers by transforming
will ensure the user experience is aligned
with customer needs and expectations.
by delivering two key customer pivot points:
• Pivoting from Service in the Morning
GO Rail from a
As part of the 2041 Regional Transportation
and Afternoon Peak Periods to Service
All Day – GO Expansion will provide
commuter system
into a Rapid Rail
Plan, Metrolinx undertook extensive research
trains in both directions throughout the
to better understand travel behaviour and
day, meaning customers who may travel
attitudes towards transportation in the GTHA.
Six key regional personas were created to
provide a lens through which the strategies
during the midday or need a later train
home can now use GO Rail for more trips. system with 6,000
of the 2041 RTP could be assessed.6 The six
key regional personas were developed under
Integration with existing and planned
rapid transit will further increase how GO weekly services
Rail can be used to access the region. allowing travellers to
the context of GO Transit’s current rail service
structure. While the current GO Rail service • Pivoting from limited trip schedules that go where they want,
provides a considerable level of service for require customers to plan ahead to when they want.
regular commuters and some occasional Service every 15 minutes that lets
users, the level of service does not meet the customers turn up and GO – GO Expansion
needs of travellers with different behaviours, will provide frequent train services (every
motivations, and backgrounds. For example, 15 minutes or better on some lines),
current off-peak service requires a traveller to which will allow customers to ‘turn up
plan far ahead within a restrictive time frame, and GO’, with less time spent planning
which may be impractical for someone who ahead or waiting for the train. Evidence
values freedom on how they spend their time. from other cities with Rapid Rail systems
While travel personas in the region are diverse, indicates this can be very attractive in
all converge on similar pain points and desires shifting trips away from cars to rail.
such as convenience, safety, and reliability.
Table 4.2 describes how the general
benefits of GO Expansion apply to
6 Personas are drawn from Appendix 2D of the “2041 the six personas in the 2041 RTP.
Regional Transportation Plan for The Greater Toronto
and Hamilton Area”, by Metrolinx, March 2018

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Table 4.2: Customer Service Improvements for GO Rail based on the 2041 Regional Transportation Plan Personas

Where are they Pain Points (difficulties

Desires (what they
Persona likely to live with travel in GO Expansion will...
want out of travel)
and work? the region)

Time and Balance Live and work • Thinks driving is • Freedom, convenience, • Increase the competitiveness of GO Rail compared to automobile
Seekers in suburbs or expensive, but uses enjoyable experience because it provides two-way, all-day, fast, and frequent service.
downtown it because it gives • More time for themselves, • This will position GO Rail as a potential travel option
more time with family and friends for travellers who seek to save time travelling.
family and friends

Traditional Live in suburbs • GO Rail is inconvenient • Control and predictability • More frequent service may make GO Expansion
Suburban and likely to • Driving is stressful of one’s travel time more convenient for Suburban travellers
Travellers work in suburbs and slow but more • Easier travel by car • Shifting demand from automobile to GO Rail will
convenient than give an easier, less congested commute to traditional
alternatives suburban travellers who continue to drive

Frustrated Live in suburbs • GO Rail is stressful • Wants to be on time • Provide a frequent, fast, and reliable travel option
Solution Seekers and work and slow • Seamless, integrated, that can connect with other transit services
downtown • Transit is crowded fits their schedule
• Allows them to be
productive while
on the move

Connected Live and work • GO Trains are • An integrated 24/7, and • Expanded all-day service makes GO more conveninet
Optimizing in Toronto expensive and optimized transit system • Assumed customer value proposition seeks to improve user experience
Urbanites inconvenient - prefers with new technology
ride sharing or TNCs

Satisfied Mature Live and work • Sometimes transit • Continuous improvements • Expanding the number of destinations they can reach with new service
Urbanites in Toronto can be crowded in usability, and options • Providing more service and higher frequencies which may reduce
• Safe travel crowding on GO Rail and other services (such as TTC subway)

Aspiring Young Live and work • Pricing, crowding, • Integrated, fast, reliable, • Two-way, all-day service with 15 minute frequencies makes GO Rail a
Travellers in Toronto and cleanliness predictable, and strong travel choice for trips within Toronto as well as for trips to connect to
punctual services friends, family, employment, or education opportunities outside of Toronto

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

4.2 Quality of Life Benefits

5 Connecting communities
across the region
GO Expansion will maintain and enhance
A safer and healthier
6
quality of life as the GTHA grows to over 10
million people by 2041. As the population
grows, so too will transportation demand and
transportation network
without new regional transportation options, for a growing region
increased congestion will affect quality of life.
Ensuring that the region’s network provides
high quality connections is a key element of
providing this growing population with a high
quality of life – especially by ensuring the
network has safe, fast, convenient, frequent, and
reliable high capacity transportation choices.
GO Expansion will transform regional
transportation, allowing the GTHA to
reach its population growth targets while
maintaining a high quality of life. It will
do so by realizing two benefits:

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Benefit

5 Connecting communities
across the region

Without GO Expansion, GO Rail continues GO Expansion can be accesed by

to operate as a commuter network - while it
serves a significant number of commuting 41% of the
region's homes
trips each day, trips outside the peak or in the
contra-peak direction may not be served.
How will GO Expansion increase connectivity? when using transit.
WITH GO EXPANSION
GO Expansion will add two-way, all-day service WITHOUT GO EXPANSION

to three lines (Kitchener, Stouffville, Barrie)

and increase frequencies on Lakeshore East Strat case 4. 7-4. 10. xlsx [Strat Case 4. 7-4. 10]
Figure 4.7: Population Living Within a Set Distance Figure 4.8: Amount of the GTHA’s Population That
and West to position GO Rail as a mode from a GO Rail Station with Two-Way, All-Day Can Access Downtown Toronto by Travel Time
of choice for a range of trips. Specifically, Service
45% Before and After GO Expansion Before
60 and After GO Expansion
after GO Expansion is delivered: 40%
40%
50
50%

% OF REGIONAL TOTAL
35%
• 4
2% of the region (5.3 million people by 30%
30% 40
40%
% OF PEOPLE

2041) will live within 5 km of a GO Rail

% of People

25%
30
30%
station with two-way, all-day service – this is 20%
20%

a net increase of 5.4% (as shown in Figure 15% 20

20%
10%
10%
4.7). In addition, ober 50% of lower income 10
10%
5%
people in the region will live within 5 km 0%
0% 0%0
of a station with two-way, all-day service. Walki ng (0-1km)
WALKING Cycling (0-3. 5km)
CYCLING Transit
TRANSIT(0-5km) within 15 minwithin
within 30 minwithin
within 45 minwithin
within 60 min
within
(0-1 KM) Distance (km)
(0-3.5 KM) (0-5 KM) 15 minutes 30 minutes 45 minutes 60 minutes
• 34% of the region will be able to reach MODE & DISTANCE
Without GO ExpansionWith GO Expansion
POPULATION WITHIN X MINUTES OF THE CORE USING GO RAIL
TRAVEL TIME TO DOWNTOWN TORONTO
FIGURE 4.7
Downtown Toronto in 45 minutes USING GO RAIL (MINUTES)

(including average transit or driving WITH GO EXPANSION WITHOUT GO EXPANSION

time to Rail GO Stations), a net increase

of over 20% (as shown in Figure 4.8).
• A total of over 4,000 recreational, cultural,
educational, and social service facilities
will be within 5 km (or transit access
distance) of a GO station with two-way,
all-day service, allowing travellers to
access more of the region with transit.
• Increased accessibility and decreased travel
Printed on 2018-11-09 at 22:47 Page 1 of 1
times will support the development of
complete communities near GO stations.
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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Benefit
A safer and healthier
6 transportation network
for a growing region
GO Expansion can support health and GO Expansion will lead to

7,000 fewer
safety goals for the region by encouraging
more people to take active modes
(walking or cycling) a part of their trip
and by also reducing accidents by
decreasing the number of automobile
accidents
trips on the GTHA's highway network. resulting in death or injury over its lifecycle
and support a healthier region by generating
How will GO Expansion lead to a
over 15 million new walking and cycling
safer and healthier region?
trips for station access a year.
As the ridership on GO Rail increases, the
number of trips on the GTHA’s road network
will decrease. This will lead to over 7,000
fewer car collisions resulting in death or
injury by 2055. The GO Expansion program
will ensure all upgrades to GO Rail ensure
customer safety. This means whether
people travel by car or by transit, the overall
transportation system in the GTHA will be
safer after GO Expansion is delivered.
GO Expansion will also increase active
trips to access GO Rail, like walking or
cycling, by up to 75% (or over 15 million
new walking and cycling trips a year) by
2031. Trips involving active modes tend to
support improved health due to exercise.

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

4.3 Economic Prosperity and Development Benefits

7 Reducing the time

commuters spend travelling
The GTHA is anticipated to see a 45% growth

8 Improving connectivity between

in employment by 2041, with over 4.8 million
jobs in the region. Ensuring that communities
and activity centres across the region are well
connected with a fast, frequent, and reliable
Urban Growth Centres
transportation network is a key component to
realizing this growth target – both by attracting
Creating new jobs across the GTHA
9
investment and talent to the region and also
by ensuring people can access employment
opportunities across the region. GO Expansion during the Delivery and Operations of
will support the GTHA’s ability to support this
employment growth and increase prosperity by:
GO Expansion

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 CHAPTER 4 :Strategic Case

Benefit After GO Expansion, commuter trips will be

10 minutes shorter
7 Reducing the time
commuters spend travelling on average &
33% of all jobs
will be accessible
Existing GO Rail services provide highly reliable How will GO Expansion improve
and fast connections to Downtown Toronto commuter travel times?
with a focus on peak trips to downtown and
evening peak trips to return home. While
Downtown Toronto will continue to play an
The addition of two-way, all-day
service allows the GO Rail network to by GO Rail.
accommodate a wider range of start/
important role as the key employment centre
end times for work, and accommodate Figure 4.9: Employment within a set distance of a
Strat case 4.7-4.10.xlsx [Strat Case 4.7-4.10]
in the region, significant employment growth
commuters who make plans after work. GO Rail station with Two-Way All-Day Service
is expected to continue over the next 35 years
in other areas across the GTHA. Providing In addition, as two-way service is introduced, 50%
50%

reliable commute options where employment more people will be able to commute 45%
40%
40%
is expected to be is essential to ensure the in the contra-peak direction. The key 35%
GTHA remains a competitive place to work, benefits from these improvements are:

% OF PEOPLE
30%
30%

% of Jobs
invest, and do business. Additionally, work 25%
• Commuters on GO Rail will save on 20%
20%
patterns are changing – many industries have
average up to 10 minutes per trip due to 15%
flexible working arrangements or hours that are
faster trains and more frequent service. 10%
10%

unlikely to fit into a traditional AM Peak train 5%

in and PM Peak train out operating pattern. • As more commuters choose GO Rail, there 0%
0%
Walki ng (0-1km)
WALKING Cycling (0-3.5km)
CYCLING Transit
TRANSIT(0-5km)
will be a decrease in peak-period congestion. (0-1 KM) Distance (km)
(0-3.5 KM) (0-5 KM)

GO Expansion is forecast to save people MODE & With

Without GO Expansion
DISTANCE
GO Expansion
commuting by automobile 6.5 million hours Figure 4.10: Amount of the GTHA’s Jobs
in 2030, and 200 million hours by 2055. That Are Within Travel Times of Downtown
• Under GO Expansion 45% of all jobs Toronto Before and After GO Expansion
within the GTHA will be within 5 km
60
60%
of a GO Rail station with two-way, all-

% OF REGIONAL JOBS TOTAL

day service (as shown in Figure 4.9). 50
50%

40
40%
• With GO Expansion over 42% of all jobs
30
30%
in the GTHA can be reached within 45
20
20%
minutes of travel time (including time to
access the GO Rail station) from downtown 10
10%

Toronto (as shown in Figure 4.10). 0

0% within 15 min within
within 30 min within
within 45 min within
within 60 min
within
Printed on 2018-11-09 at 22:48
15 minutes 30 minutes 45 minutes 60 minutes
TRAVEL TIME TO DOWNTOWN TORONTO
USING GO RAIL (MINUTES)

WITH GO EXPANSION WITHOUT GO EXPANSION

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Benefit

8 Improving connectivity among

Urban Growth Centres
The time it takes to travel between destinations How does GO Rail increase connectivity between GO Expansion will bring
is a key determinant of their attractiveness for employment and urban growth centres? Urban Growth Centres closer together by

up to 25 minutes
investment, living, or working. GO Rail provides
With GO Expansion the addition of two-way,
long distance mobility between key areas across
all-day service on select GO Rail lines, with
the region, with rail corridors and stations
adjacent to segments of the region that will play
an important role in economic development
improved rolling stock and infrastructure to
allow greater speeds, greatly reduces the time in the off-peak &
(as shown in Figure 4.11), including:
it takes to travel across the region – including
time spent on train and waiting for the train to 10 minutes in the peak,
• Existing Employment Hubs – areas arrive. This will effectively ‘shrink’ the region – which will support investment,
that concentrate employment. allowing people to access major employment development, and growth.
and development areas more quickly –
• Future Employment Hubs – areas that
thereby supporting planned employment
are planned as focal points for new
growth and economic development.
employment growth over the next 25 years.
Figures 4.11-15 illustrate how GO Rail stations,
• Urban Growth Centres – areas prioritized
Urban Growth Centres, and present and future
for densification and mixed-use growth.
employment hubs will be drawn together
• Increased connectivity between major based on travel time after GO Expansion
employment centres and urban growth is delivered. On average, the time it takes
centres can encourage further investment, to move from an Urban Growth Centre to
innovation, and business development. Downtown Toronto decreases by 15 minutes
with GO Expansion. These figures make use
This “shrinking” effect refers to an economic
of generalized journey time to show how far
process called “agglomeration”, where
Urban Growth Centres and Employment Hubs
decreasing the time it takes to access economic
are from Downtown Toronto based on the
centres catalyzes further productivity, including:
perceived travel time (including accessing
• Increased interaction and collaboration GO Rail, waiting for a train, and time spend in
between firms or other institutions vehicle) in the BAU and GO Expansion scenarios.
that are located across the GTHA.
• Expanded labour catchment for a range
of industries that require strong talent,
which can encourage new investment and
business development opportunities.

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 CHAPTER 4 :STRATEGIC CASE

Figure 4.11:
GO Expansion will BAR
increase the economic
connectivity and
prosperity of the region

RIC

STO

LSE

KIT

MIL

LSW

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 4.12:
GO Rail Journey Time
Between Downtown
Toronto and Urban
Growth Centres and
Employment Hubs in
the Peak Period without
GO Expansion

URBAN GROWTH CENTRE

EMPLOYMENT AREAS

LAKESHORE WEST

LAKESHORE EAST

MILTON

STOUFFVILLE

KITCHENER

BARRIE

RICHMOND HILL

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 CHAPTER 4 :STRATEGIC CASE

Figure 4.13:
GO Rail Journey Time
Between Downtown
Toronto and Urban
Growth Centres and
Employment Hubs in
the Peak Period with
GO Expansion

URBAN GROWTH CENTRE

EMPLOYMENT AREAS

LAKESHORE WEST

LAKESHORE EAST

MILTON

STOUFFVILLE

KITCHENER

BARRIE

RICHMOND HILL

93
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 4.14:
GO Rail Journey Time
Between Downtown
Toronto and Urban
Growth Centres and
Employment Hubs in the
Off-Peak Period without
GO Expansion

URBAN GROWTH CENTRE

EMPLOYMENT AREAS

LAKESHORE WEST

LAKESHORE EAST

MILTON

STOUFFVILLE

KITCHENER

BARRIE

RICHMOND HILL

94
 CHAPTER 4 :STRATEGIC CASE

Figure 4.15:
GO Rail Journey Time Between Downtown
Toronto and Urban Growth Centres and
Employment Hubs in the Off-Peak Period
with GO Expansion

International experience suggests that

urban development and economic
productivity can be increased when urban
centres with labour (example: making it
possible to commute further or to different
parts of the GTHA for skilled workers) or
industrial synergies (example: connecting
an area with significant R&D based
industries to a financial services hub) are
connected with improved reliable services.
For example, with GO Expansion both
Aldershot and Oshawa stations will be less
than 60 minutes to the downtown core.
This change in travel time further connects
the economies and urban development
patterns of the region, which can
trigger increased investment and more
rapid development - both of which
support overall regional prosperity.

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Benefit

9 Creating new jobs across the GTHA during the

Delivery and Operations of GO Expansion
In addition to changing the way people travel Implementation of GO Expansion
and commute, GO Expansion will also support will support approximately
economic growth by creating jobs through direct
investment in infrastructure and operations. 8,300 jobs per year
How will GO Expansion create new jobs?
Transportation and infrastructure investments are
in construction and
typically strong job creators. Successful project
delivery and operations requires a range of skills
supply-chain
and job types and varying experiences, which
allow infrastructure projects to support skill and industries.
labour pool development. Additionally, major This is equal to nearly
infrastructure projects can attract investment
from out of province or internationally to develop
plants and offices, both of which also create jobs.
100,000
Key jobs for GO Expansion include: job-years of
• Tradespeople to construct and
maintain infrastructure. employment
• Engineers, architects, and planners to over 12 years of project and
plan and design to infrastructure. program delivery.

• Professional services to set up procurement

and program management

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C

4.4 Protected Environment Benefits

10 Moving more people with

less energy and pollution
The GTHA’s transportation network is a major
source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
and is one of the region’s major contributors
to climate change. Additionally, the region’s
transportation system is resource intensive
– every day the region requires significant
resources – such as fuel, materials, and
electricity to operate. GO Expansion realizes
a key sustainability benefit – moving more
people with less pollution and energy spent.

97
GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Benefit

10 Moving more people with

less energy and pollution
Transportation requires significant energy to After GO Expansion, GO Rail will make use of GO Expansion will reduce
operate and generates significant emissions electric trains and average trip GHG emissions GHG emissions by
that impact public health, including Criteria (shown in Figure 4.16) will decrease from 1.85 kg
Air Contaminants (CACs), as well as Green
House Gases (GHG) emissions. The majority of
per trip without GO Expansion to an average of
0.5 kg. If the reduction in automobile emissions
13.5 megatonnes
which come from autos and trucks. As a result,
significant shifts in demand from the road
is considered, the combined total reduction
of transportation GHG emissions due to this
of CO2e
network can reduce the region’s contribution investment will be nearly 13.5 megatonnes CO2e over its lifecycle.
to climate change and lead to cleaner air. of GHGs. While GO Rail will continue to emit
GHGs, over its lifecyle it will be carbon negative Figure 4.16:
How will GO Expansion reduce
– meaning the net reduction in emissions is Average GHG Emissions
energy use and emissions?
greater than any new emissions generated. Per Passenger Trip on GO Rail
GO Expansion will shift over 145,000 cars off
A reduction in automobile emissions will also
the road each day leading to significant GHG
generate other benefits including reduced

GHG EMISSIONS PER PASSENGER TRIP (kg of CO2e)

reductions. By 2055, this will amount to 7.3 2.0
air pollution which can improve the health
megatonnes of CO2e (a combination of multiple
of people throughout the GTHA and in
GHGs into one unit of measurement), which
particular near pollution ‘hot spots’. A healthier
is nearly two years' worth of transportation
population has become an increasing priority 1.5
related emissions across the GTHA.7
elsewhere in the world including in Paris and
While GO Rail operations will lead to in London where low emission transportation
GHG emissions due to the electricity and policies aim to improve people’s health.8
1.0
diesel used to provide the service, there
will be a net reduction in emissions from
GO Rail of 2.2 megatonnes of CO2e.
0.5

0.0

WITHOUT GO EXPANSION
7 From “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for the 8 From London Mayor’s Transportation StrategyFIGURE
(2018, 4.13
Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area”, by The Toronto available online: https://www.london.gov.uk/what- WITH GO EXPANSION
Atmospheric Fund, December 2017, available online: we-do/transportation/our-vision-transportation/
http://taf.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TAF_2015_ mayors-transportation-strategy-2018)
GTHA_Emissions_Inventory_2017-12-06.pdf

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C

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

4.5 Strategic Case Figure 4.17: Ten Reasons Communities in the GO Service Area Benefit From GO Expansion

Conclusions TRANSPORTATION QUAL I TY OF L I F E

Summary 1 Doubling rail ridership – GO Expansion will

nearly double GO Rail’s ridership. By 2055, annual 5 New regional connections – After GO
Expansion, 41% of the region’s people will be
ridership will exceed 200 million (compared to able to access a GO Rail station with two-way all-
GO Expansion will transform how people travel 105 million without GO Expansion). This ridership day service by transit (compared to 34% without
across the region – allowing customers to use gain includes nearly 60 million additional off- GO Expansion). In addition, over 4,000 cultural,
the transit network in new ways that improve peak and counter peak trips, a net increase of educational, and social service facilities will be
their journey travel time and experience. In 210%. This ridership increase reflects the latent readily accessible with two-way all-day GO Rail
addition, it will have a significant contribution demand for improved rail service in the region. service. This will allow people to choose transit
Delivering GO Expansion alongside the delivery to take them from where they are to where they
to regional and provincial policy by directly
of rapid transit projects and improved station want to go – greatly improving their quality of life.
improving quality of life, economic prosperity, access will allow GO Rail to act as the foundation
and regional sustainability. The impact of of a region wide transit network and realize
GO Expansion across the four dimensions these significant ridership increases. Ridership
of strategic performance is summarized changes are shown in Figure E.4 and Table E.2.
in Figure 4.17, while Table 4.3 describes
what these benefits mean to the region. 2 Capacity for the future – GO Expansion
will allow GO Rail to add over 1,000 new rail 6 A healthier region and safer transportation
network – GO Expansion will generate 15
Based on these substantial benefits, services a day by upgrading rail corridors and million new walking and cycling trips to
GO Expansion will directly address Union Station. Once upgraded, GO Rail can access GO Rail station a year. Active travel
the problem statement: increase capacity until the end of the century options tend to promote improved health.
to meet increased demand as the region’s In addition, as more drivers choose GO Rail,
• It will provide new transportation choices population and employment continue to grow. there will be less traffic and an estimated
that can accommodate significant population 7,000 fewer accidents resulting in death or
injury over the project lifecycle in the GTHA.
growth and help tackle congestion
• It will provide the foundations of a region
wide Frequent Rapid Transit Network 3 A self-sustaining railway – GO Expansion will
reduce the costs of operating trains and increase
(as described in the 2041 RTP) ridership, leading to a railway system that covers
all operating costs with fare box revenue. With
• It will support the GTHA in maintaining GO Expansion, GO Rail revenues will exceed
a high quality of life, prosperous 110% of operating costs over the next sixty years,
economy, and protected environment with revenue equalling 150% of costs in 2055.
as its population grows by over 40%
4 A railway that meets customer needs – GO
expansion will transform the customer experience
for railway passengers. GO Rail will pivot from
a peak only railway to a two-way all-day service
with 15 minute or better frequencies that will let
customers turn up and go for their service. This
transition to a ‘subway’ style service will appeal
to a range of customers and make GO Rail a
competitive mode for many more trips than
today’s commuter focussed customer experience.
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E CO N O MIC PR O SPE R ITY P R OTE CTE D E N VI R O N M E N T

7 Reducing commute times – GO Expansion will

reduce commuter times by an average of 10 10 Cleaner air and energy conservation – GO
Expansion will reduce Criteria Air Contaminants that
minutes per trip and as much as 20-30 minutes impact human health and up to 13.5 megatonnes
for other trips. After GO Expansion is delivered, of Greenhouse Gases that contribute to climate
45% of all jobs in the region will accessible by change. After the project is delivered, nearly
transit from a GO Rail station with two-way all- 145,000 cars trips per day will shift to rail and
day service, compared to 35% in the off-peak. In with more efficient trains, rail Greenhouse Gas
addition, nearly 60% (a net increase of 30%) of emissions will drop from 1.85 kg/trip to 0.5 kg/trip.
all jobs in the GTHA will be accessible within a
one hour trip on the GO Rail network from Union
Station. This means people will have less stressful
commutes and more productive time for work,
supporting to an overall more prosperous region.

8 Catalyzing Urban Growth Centres – GO

Expansion will reduce travel times between
Urban Growth Centres and downtown Toronto
by 25 minutes in the off-peak and 10 minutes in
the peak. This ‘shrinking’ effect has been seen
to unlock investment and urban development
in other city-regions. As more of the region’s
planned Urban Growth Centres are closer
to downtown, they become more attractive
places to do business, invest or live, which
in turn could accelerate development. New
developments could lead to a more productive
region or address housing affordability by
unlocking more of the region for denser and
complete community style development.

9 Creating new jobs across the region – GO

Expansion is a regional project that will
generate trades and professional jobs during
it design, construction, and operations. An
estimated 8,300 annual job equivalents
for the first twelve years of delivery will be
created over the lifecycle of the program.

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Table 4.3: Benefits of GO Expansion to Rail Passengers, Drivers, and the Region Key Considerations for Future
Program Planning
GO Expansion’s strategic performance may
Background
be affected by other planned rail investments
which are separately being considered in
• Faster service (average of 10 minutes saved per trip) the GTHA as discussed in Table 4.4.
• Expanded choices – 42% of places to live and 46% of places to work
are accessible with a fast, frequent, two-way all-day GO Rail service
Rail and Transit
Passengers • More of the region can be reached by GO Rail including 4,000
cultural, educational, social service, and recreational sites within
transit access distance of a station with two-way all-day service
• Increased connectivity to the rapid transit network

• Reduced congestion (over 145,000 cars off the road each day) on
Drivers
major highways leading to more reliable and quicker travel times

• A more connected region can attract investment in urban development

or businesses – GO Expansion will bring major urban growth centres
closer together by reducing travel time by 10-25 minutes
• For the first twelve years of program delivery there will be 8,300 job
equivalents created annually in construction and supply-chain industries
Region
• Improved health due to cleaner air and a more active population
• A more resilient transportation network with reduced operating subsidy,
expanded choice, and substantial additional capacity for the rest of the century
• Reduced traffic accidents and emissions

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Table 4.4: Impact of other planned investments on the Strategic Case for GO Expansion

Key
Background Impact on Strategic Performance
Considerations

Rail extensions will expand the GO Rail Rail extensions will increase the number of communities that can use GO Rail to travel
Rail Extensions network further to serve new communities across the region and will therefore potentially increase ridership and all strategic benefits
such as Bowmanville or Niagara. associated with improved accessibility and reduced travel times.

The station access strategy is assumed to Station access supports passengers to more easily access GO Rail. Ridership
be delivered within the BAU. Station access realization is heavily influenced by the competitiveness of the whole GO Rail
Station Access
will support travellers to access GO Rail by journey (including access and waiting times) compared to the automobile or
Strategy
non-auto modes, such as cycling, walking, other modes. Ensuring convenient and safe access to GO Rail is an essential
car-pool, ride sharing, taxis, or local transit. element of realizing the ridership benefits in this Business Case.

Transit Oriented Development (TOD) will

be focused around and adjacent to GO
stations – potentially increasing the number
If TOD exceeds what has been assumed in this analysis, there will likely be increased
of homes and businesses located within
Transit demand for travel at GO stations. In addition, the successful delivery of GO expansion
walking distance of the system. The land
Oriented may support and trigger further TOD at stations across the network. While GO
use assumptions in the model assume some
Development Expansion will support further TOD, a set of supporting policies and plans must also be
growth around stations but do not reflect
considered to realize the full potential of TOD alongside the GO Expansion program.
a complete TOD buildout, where grey and
greenfield development intensify housing
and commercial development near stations.

High Speed Rail is under consideration

between Toronto and Windsor and with High Speed Rail will serve a similar market as the Kitchener Line – this means some
proposals to serve Pearson Airport, Guelph, customers may make use of High Speed Rail instead of GO Rail, which could
High
and Kitchener Waterloo. The delivery reduce GO Rail’s ridership on this corridor. Therefore, GO Expansion may generate
Speed Rail
model in the Preliminary Business Case slightly fewer trips then currently forecast – this may be offset by High Speed Rail
for High Speed Rail suggested that it feeding passengers west of Kitchener to GO stations besides Union Station
would share tracks with GO Expansion.

Hydrail is a proposed model for delivering Hydrail’s impact on the Strategic Case is unknown at this time. It could have three impacts:
electric traction trains in the GTHA using trains • Hydrail will mitigate the need to install overhead catenary systems
that run on hydrogen fuel cells. Hydrail was
analyzed in a feasibility report that explored • Hydrail may be supportive of the development of hydrogen oriented industries in
Hydrail Ontario, which could expand GO Expansion’s economic prosperity benefits
the technical feasibility and potential
economic and financial impacts of deploying • Hydrail may also influence environmental impacts including emission
Hydrail trains instead of overhead catenary reduction, depending on the amount of fleet that uses hydrogen
system electric locomotives and EMUs. fuel cells and the amount of emissions to produce them

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 5
Economic Case

104
Overview How is the chapter structured?
The Economic Case describes the benefits and costs of GO Expansion Section Content
to the GTHA using social benefit cost analysis, which is concerned
with the costs of a project and its impacts on users and society: A description of all assumptions used
5.1 Economic Case Analysis
to complete the Economic Case.
• Costs – the economic (or resource) costs invested by society
to deliver, operate, and maintain the investment. This
appraisal includes capital, operating and lifecycle costs. A description of the relationship
5.2 Economic Narrative between costs and impacts
• Impacts – changes to welfare for transportation users for GO Expansion.
and society, and occurring as a result of the investment.
This appraisal includes changes in time savings, auto Economic Costs
operating costs, road safety, and GHG emissions.9 A description of the costs required
5.3 to Deliver the GO
to deliver the investment.
The Economic Case analysis allows decision makers, project planners, Expansion Program
and the public to understand whether the use of resource for a new
transportation project will deliver value to the region that exceeds the User Impacts: GO
A description of how GO
costs to deliver it. This chapter considers similar issues as the Strategic Expansion Benefits
5.4 Travellers Across
Expansion affects travellers or
Case, but applies local and international best practice to monetize ‘transportation network users’.
how GO Expansion will benefit travellers and improve quality of life, the Region
economic prosperity, and environmental sustainability for the region.
External Impacts: GO
A description of how GO Expansion
Expansion Leads to a
5.5 More Sustainable and
affects society by reducing
the social costs of travel.
Healthier Region

Wider Economic A description of how GO Expansion

Impacts: GO will contribute to regional economic
5.6 Expansion Increases development, productivity,
Regional Prosperity and economic efficiency.

An overview of the overall

Economic Case economic impact of GO Expansion
5.7 Conclusion including sensitivity tests and risk
management approaches..

9 Positive changes are referred to as benefits, while negative

changes are referred to as disbenefits.

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GO RAIL
EXPANSION FULLFULL
EXPANSION BUSINESS
BUSINESS
CASECASE

Economic Case Summary

ACTIONS COST ECONOMI
ACTIONS COST ECONOMIC BENEFITS

More With faster and Automobile With GO Expansion,

$
More All-Day more frequent services, operating cost increased walking and
All-Day
Service travellers on the GO Rail reductions due to cycling to access GO Rail
Service network will realize fewer cars on the road will realize a health
time benefits of will realize a benefit of over benefit of
Service Incremental Capital Costs:

Both
Service
in Both in
Directions
Directions $12.2 billion $35.4 billion $1.9 billion $565 million
Incremental Operating Costs:
Trains
Trains at
at least every
least every
$4.3 billion GO Expansion will
make roads less congested
GO Expansion will reduce
Green House Gas emissions
As more people
take GO Rail,
15 minutes by diverting travellers to and air pollution by using there will be fewer
15 minutes Terminal Value: GO Rail, realizing more efficient trains and car trips leading to

Faster
Faster
$340 million decongestion
benefits of
shifting trips from auto to rail,
realizing a benefit of
accident reduction
benefits of
(Cost reduction at
$3.3 billion $330 million $550 million
Electric
and More
Trains end of evaluation period)
Efficient Fleet
Improved This investment
Moreand New
Accessible
Stations
Stations will benefit the
GTHA as a whole B E N E F I T S E X C E E D C O S T S B Y 2.6X
An Expanded
An Expanded
Union Station
Union Station This means,
GO Expansion has an economic
Benefit Cost Ratio of 2.6 for every dollar
A
invested in GO Expansion,
AN D

$42.2 billion benefits 10 the region benefits by

A
$16.2 billion costs
$2.60

2
D

S
O LLAR

TOTAL PRESENT VALUE

OF COSTS $16.2 BILLION

TOTAL PRESENT VALUE

$42.2 BILLION
OF BENEFITS

NET PRESENT VALUE = $26 BILLION

10 Benefits indicated above do not add to $42.2 due to rounding. Table

5.6 provides a detailed summary of benefits and costs.
106
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 CHAPTER 5 :Economic Case

5.1 Economic Case Analysis

Understanding Benefit Cost Analysis

The Economic Case makes use of social A set of guiding assumptions and parameters
benefit cost analysis to compare the benefits noted in Table 5.1 are used throughout the
realized by GO Expansion to the costs BCA in this Economic Case. All analysis in the
required to deliver it. Benefit Cost Analysis Economic Case is incremental to the Business
(BCA) is commonly used when assessing as Usual (BAU) scenario – meaning that all costs
the value of infrastructure projects to: and impacts only consider those directly related
to the GO Expansion program. All analysis is
• Determine if the benefit of an investment
presented in real terms in 2017$ prices and
outweigh its costs by determining a Benefit
assumes an economic discount rate of 3.5%11.
Cost Ratio (BCR) – investments with a BCR
greater than one will generate benefits that The discount rate is used to represent the
exceed the costs to deliver and operate them. fact that goods/benefits today are valued
more than goods/benefits in the future.
• Evaluate the net economic benefit or cost
to the region through a Net Present Value
(NPV) calculation, which is equal to the
benefits of an investment minus the costs
to deliver and operate it – a positive NPV
indicates that benefits exceed the costs
to deliver and operate the investment.
• Understand benefit and cost drivers for
the investment to ensure that benefits
are realized throughout the delivery
and operations of the investment.

11 Real values, used in the Economic Case, reflect the

change in the value of goods and services in terms of
purchasing power from the base year. Nominal values,
used in the financial case, reflect the expected cost
of a good or service in the year of expenditure. These
values include both the general inflation rate as well
as the increase for the good/service in real terms.

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Table 5.1: Economic Case Inputs and Assumptions

Full Business Case Explanation

Evaluation period 2017 - 2086 60 years from assumed implementation of new services

Discount Rate 3.5% per year real Ontario Ministry of Finance guidelines

Terminal Value 50% of fixed maintenance and 100% of capex 2066-2086 Assumption

Rate is based on 50% of average GTHA wage rates. VoT

Value of Time
$17.36 with 0.7% growth to 2055 growth is assumed to follow 1% GDP growth forecast by
per hour
Ontario Ministry of Finance, with elasticity of 0.75

Generalized
Journey Time -1.0 Peak, -1.4 off-peak Metrolinx analysis
Elasticity

Ridership increase of 1% on each corridor for every other corridor

Network effect Assumption
with two-way, all-day service; 2% for frequent all-day services

Fare integration with TTC from 2020, with existing GO riders

Fares within Toronto paying only TTC fares. Passenger charges (which Policy assumption
may include parking charges) increase 1.0% real per year

Value of accident
$0.10 per km declining at a rate of 5.3% per year Metrolinx Business Case Guidance
reduction

Road user time

0.010 hours peak and 0.0013 off-peak per auto VKT diverted to transit Metrolinx analysis based on GGHM runs
savings

Auto Operating
Marginal operating cost of $0.09 per km Metrolinx Business Case Guidance
Costs

GHG reduction 1 tonne carbon avoided per 4,000 car-km; $42.10 per tonne social value Metrolinx Business Case Guidance

Active travel $1.73/km cycled and $3.84/km walked Metrolinx Business Case Guidance

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5.2 Economic Narrative

Figure 5.1 Economic Case Narrative

GO Expansion is a significant investment
in the GTHA’s transportation network – the
analysis included in the Economic Case Inputs
illustrates how its benefits exceed the costs
Incremental capital and operating costs
to deliver it. Projects generate economic
value by improving the region’s welfare
through three overall mechanisms
Actions Outputs Economic Benefits
• Directly benefiting travellers by improving
their journey experience and reducing their Transit User Benefits
AN
travel time and other travel cost factors EXPANDED Improved customer experience for new users • Existing user travel
UNION that makes GO Rail more attractive than time savings
• Reducing the ‘social cost’ of transportation STATION
automobile (faster trains, higher frequencies) • New user travel
in the region as a whole by encouraging time savings and
auto operating
mode shift to modes that have reduced cost savings
externalities – including fewer accidents MORE
resulting in death and injury and ACCESSIBLE
STATIONS
Reduced
reduced environmental impacts automobile
Automobile
user benefits
Improved trips and
• Triggering Wider Economic Impacts (WEIs) customer more Fewer cars on • Off-peak
decongestion travel
by allowing firms and people easier access experience GO Rail trips the road leads
time savings
for new users to reduced
to economic and employment opportunities that makes congestion • Peak decongestion
GO Rail more travel time savings
The economic narrative for how GO Expansion attractive than
realized these benefits is described in Figure 5.1 TWO-WAY, automobile
ALL-DAY (faster trains,
SERVICE
higher
IMPROVEMENTS External benefits
frequencies)
– reduced car
accidents resulting
in death or injury

External benefits –
FASTER
AND MORE
reduced CAC and
EFFICIENT GHG emissions due
Reduced GO
FLEET to fewer car trips and
Rail emissions
more efficient trains

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

5.3 Economic Costs to Deliver the GO Expansion Program

Overview
This subsection of the Economic Case describes Note – unlike the Financial Case which deals with costs in nominal terms and focuses on
the costs or ‘required investment’ to deliver GO their overall financial impact on Metrolinx, the Economic Case is focused on the resource
Expansion. Costs are divided into two categories: costs of GO Expansion in real terms. The Economic Case is based on the ‘opportunity cost’
• Capital Costs — fixed one-time costs incurred of allocating resources to GO Expansion while the Financial Case is focused on the required
during the implementation of the investment cash flow to deliver and operate the investment. Further information on the distinction
and when elements of the investment between these two cases is provided in Metrolinx Business Case Guidance Volume 2.
are lifecycle expired, thereby requiring
complete replacement (example: track Table 5.2: GO Expansion Costs (incremental to BAU scenario)
replacement every 30 years). Capital costs
include fleet, corridor, and station costs.
Costs
• Operating and Maintenance Costs — ongoing (Present Value,
Total
Lakeshore
Kitchener Barrie Stouffville
Lakeshore System-
costs required to operate the investment Million 2017 West East wide
CAD $)
and provide day to day maintenance,
including all labour and materials.
Capital $12,220 $2,240 $960 $2,550 $1,680 $2,150 $2,640
Table 5.2 outlines the capital and operating
costs for GO Expansion, at a network level and
Corridor $8,500 $1,160 $630 $2,130 $1,140 $1,540 $1,900
by corridor over the project lifecycle. These
costs are incremental to the BAU scenario and Fleet $3,720 $1,080 $330 $420 $540 $610 $740
have been discounted based on the approach
defined in the Economic Case Analysis section. Operating &
Maintenance $4,340 $360 $1,000 $1,020 $830 -$100 $1,230
Costs

Operating $1,860 $170 $720 $500 $440 -$130 $160

Maintenance $2,480 $190 $280 $520 $390 $30 $1,070

Terminal Value -$340 -$80 -$30 -$50 -$60 -$50 -$70

Total
Present Value
$16,220 $2,520 $1,930 $3,520 $2,450 $2,000 $3,800
of Incremental
Costs

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5.4 User Impacts:

GO Expansion Benefits Travellers Across the Region

Overview
User Impacts are a key area of analysis for • New GO Rail Passengers – GO Expansion • For travellers that switch to GO Rail, the rule
transportation investments. They represent will reduce the generalized cost of travel of a half is applied where new customers
how GO Expansion will improve welfare for on GO Rail, which will attract new travellers receive a benefit of half of the overall travel
transportation network users or travellers. (who used to use another mode). These new time difference between the BAU and
This includes both travellers who will travellers will receive a benefit equal to the GO Expansion scenario.13 This travel time
make use of GO Expansion and those difference in what they were willing to pay and difference is then monetized using the VoT.
who will not but benefit from travellers the new generalized cost of travel on GO Rail.
• Auto user benefits are estimated based on
moving from other modes to GO Rail.
• Auto Travellers – GO Expansion will attract the amount of peak and off-peak demand
How does GO Rail Investment some travellers off the auto network, that shifts to GO Rail. Each traveller that
Benefit Travellers? which will lead to decongestion. In switches to GO Rail will reduce the amount
turn, decongestion reduces the travel of VKT on the auto network. A decongestion
The user impacts considered in this Business
time and operating cost for travellers time saving of 0.010 hours/km in the peak
Case were estimated using the GGHMV4
who remain on the auto network. and 0.0013 hours/km in the off-peak is used
model – a transportation network model that
to estimate travel time savings for auto
makes use of the generalized cost12 of the
How are Traveller Benefits Estimated? users. The hours saved by auto travellers
modes available for each trip to determine
are then monetized using a value of time.
how travellers make use of the network. User The benefits included in the Economic Case
benefits are considered through the lens of are based on a direct demand model that
changes in costs, or ‘willingness to pay’ for a trip. allocates future transportation demand
to GO Rail based on its competitiveness
Travellers who reduce costs have more
with other modes. This model estimates
personal time with their friends or family and
traveller benefits based on traveller type:
also have more productive time due to shorter
commutes. As discussed in the economic • For existing GO Rail travellers, benefits
13 The rule of a half is a standard approach used in user
narrative, GO Expansion will change the are estimated by comparing the overall or traveller benefit estimation. Traveller benefits are
cost of travel with three overall impacts: travel time for GO Rail in the BAU and based on the difference between the generalized
under the GO Expansion scenario. The travel time in the BAU and the GO Expansion
• Existing GO Rail Passengers – GO Expansion scenarios. However, it is unknown at which overall
number of hours saved per trip are
will reduce the generalized cost of travel travel time difference customers switch to GO Rail.
monetized using the Value of Time (VoT). For example: if the travel time difference from the
below the status quo cost of travel, providing
BAU and GO Expansion Scenarios is 10 minutes, it
a direct welfare benefit to existing users. is unknown whether customers would switch at a
difference of seven, eight, or nine minutes. Economists
assume that the demand curve (which represents
12 Generalized cost is the sum of the monetary the level of demand for a given travel time for GO
(e.g. public transit fare) and non-monetary (i.e. Rail) is linear between the BAU and do-something
time spent travelling – time is monetized using scenarios (in this case, the GO Expansion scenario)
a Value of Time factor) costs of a journey. and allocate half of the difference to new travellers.

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

User Impact Summary

All user impacts included in this analysis are User benefits are significant over the These benefits are realized across each of the
‘net impacts’ across the corridor, including a lifecycle of the project – totalling over $40 GO Rail lines that receive upgraded service and
summation of benefits and disbenefits. Table 5.3 billion in 2018 dollars. Total transit user can be divided into two broad categories:
summarizes user impacts due to GO Expansion benefits reflect an average timesaving of
over 10 minutes per trip due to increased • Lines with existing two-way, all-day
projects, both at a network level and by corridor.
frequency, reliability, and travel times. service: benefits on Lakeshore East and
West are largely driven by providing new
Table 5.3: User Impact Summary journey opportunities (example: being
able to travel to or from Barrie line stations
all-day) and increased frequencies along
Benefits
the existing two-way, all-day corridor.
(Present Value, Lakeshore Lakeshore System-
Total Kitchener Barrie Stouffville
Million 2018 West East wide • Lines with peak only or limited two-way,
CAD $)
all-day service: benefits on Kitchener,
Barrie, and Stouffville lines are driven
Transit User $35,430 $5,720 $5,020 $11,720 $3,700 $6,690 $2,580 by the addition of significantly more
two-way, all-day service and 15 minute
service on core segments of the lines.
Auto User $3,330 $790 $310 $650 $320 $910 $350 The overall benefits for the second category –
lines that currently have limited two-way, all-
Auto Operating
day service – reflect a greater transformation
$1,940 $420 $180 $460 $170 $500 $210 of rail service in terms of accessibility, speed,
Cost Savings
and frequency and are therefore significantly
higher than the total benefits from corridors
Total User
Benefits
$40,700 $6,930 $5,510 $12,830 $4,190 $8,100 $3,140 that currently have two-way all-day service.
For example, the Barrie Corridor’s over $12.8
billion in benefits are derived from greatly
improving service for existing passengers,
but also enabling a wider range of new trips
with high quality and frequent transit.

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 CHAPTER 5 :Economic Case

5.5 External Impacts: GO Expansion Leads to a

More Sustainable and Healthier Region

Overview How does GO Expansion Lead to a More

Sustainable and Healthier Region?
Every trip taken can contribute to negative These four external impacts
societal impacts – whether it be emissions This FBC includes four external impacts: are realized in two-ways:
that pollute the air or injuries that can occur
• Improved Safety – as travellers switch • Improved efficiencies on GO
from collisions. These impacts are called the
from automobile to GO Rail, they will take Rail – investment in GO Expansion
‘social cost of transportation’. Transportation
trips off the highway and roadway system, changes many elements of the GO
investments are an opportunity to reduce
which will reduce the number of accidents Rail system - including the trains and
these social costs by improving the economic
causing death or injury in the GTHA. traction system. These changes can
efficiency of the transportation system – meaning
reduce the impact of a passenger km
less impact for the same amount of travel • Reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions
travelled on the GO Rail network.
(measured in impact per passenger kilometre). – transportation emissions include GHG
emissions that contribute to climate change. • Mode change – if travellers move from
As travellers switch from automobile to GO a less efficient mode to GO Rail then
Rail, they will take trips off the highway and there is an impact equivalent to the
road systems, which will reduce the amount externalities per trip on GO Rail, minus
of GHG emissions and transporatation's the externalities on their previously used
contribution to climate change. mode. These benefits are calculated
based on the change in auto VKT.
• Increased Physical Activity Leading to
Healthier Travellers – customers who
used to drive and use GO Rail after GO
Expansion is delivered may access stations
by walking and cycling. Increased physical
activity can improve traveller well-being
and lead to a health benefit to the region.
Induced GO Rail demand may also access
the service by walking or cycling.
• Reduced Criteria Air Contaminants (CACs) –
transportation emissions also include CACs,
which impact human health. As more drivers
switch to GO Rail after GO Expansion there
will be reduced CAC emissions and other
pollutants known to affect human health.

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

How are External Benefits calculated? External Impacts Summary Because the social cost of each auto
trip increases with distance travelled,
External benefits are calculated using the The overall external benefits of GO Expansion
the benefit per trip that changes to
same direct demand model as GO Rail are shown in Table 5.4, which illustrates that
GO Rail is based on the distance of the
ridership and traveller benefits. These GO Expansion will realize significant external
auto trip avoided/no longer taken.
benefits are based on the diversion rate to benefits of over $1.4 billion over its lifecycle.
GO Rail. As more customers switch from auto These benefits are driven in two-ways: Each line realizes both health and
to GO Rail, the total amount of auto travel environmental benefits. Health benefits are
• Number of automobile trips
decreases. As shown in Table 5.4, reduced greater than environmental benefits because
that switch to GO Rail.
auto VKT leads to two external benefits: the social cost of a km of travel is higher in
• Trip length for trips that used to terms of health than it is for the GHGs.
• Improved Safety – reduced accidents
use auto and now use GO Rail.
leading to death or injury at a rate of
$0.10 per km declining at 5.3% per year Table 5.4: External Impact Summary
(reflecting general improvements in road
safety leading to fewer accidents per year).
Benefits
• Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions – (Present Value, Lakeshore Lakeshore System-
Total Kitchener Barrie Stouffville
Million 2017 West East wide
one tonne of GHGs avoided per 4,000 CAD $)
car-km valued at $42.10 per tonne.
• Increased Physical Activity – as passengers Reduction
in Accidents
switch from automobile to GO Rail, some Resulting in
$550 $120 $50 $130 $50 $140 $60
may walk or cycle to the station - each Death or Injury
cycling trip realizes a benefit of $1.73 per
km cycled and each walking trip generates Increased Note: Health benefits due to increased activity were
a benefit of $3.84 per km walked. $565 $565
Physical Activity estimated for the system as a whole and not each line.

• Reduced Criteria Air Contaminants –

health benefits due to reduced CACs GHG Emissions
$220 $50 $20 $50 $20 $60 $20
are typically estimated at a rate of $0.02 Reductions
per km reduction in auto travel.
Reduced Air
$110 $20 $10 $30 $10 $30 $10
Pollution

Total Present
Value of External $1,445 $190 $80 $210 $80 $230 $655
Benefits

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5.6 Wider Economic Impacts:

GO Expansion Increases Regional Prosperity

Overview How does GO Expansion Increase Wider Economic Impacts Summary

Regional Prosperity?
Traditional benefit costs analysis (BCA) takes into Efforts are underway to develop a WEI model
account the improvement in welfare because of Research suggests that the primary benefits for the GTHA. For this document, an illustrative
an investment in transit infrastructure. Primarily, related to GO Expansion are associated with WEI value has been estimated based on
this takes the form of reductions in the cost and agglomeration based on the relationship international experience, which suggests WEIs
time for transportation (travel time savings). between density of economic activity and from rail investment range from 5%-50% of
Wider Economic Impacts (WEIs) are included in productivity. Investment in GO Expansion user benefits. A conservative range of 5%-
an expanded BCA. WEIs are usually categorized will reduce travel times across the network, 15% has been selected for this analysis, which
into several components, each addressing which in turn decreases the generalized cost notes WEIs may range from $2 billion to $6
a series of potential benefits identified in of travel. This allows urban areas to become billion in additional economic benefits.
regional economics literature and other ‘closer’ (shorter travel time), which increases
While WEIs are not included in the
Business Cases for transformational projects. the effective density of employment and
conventional BCR and NPV in this FBC, their
economic activity within the region.
impact on overall economic performance
The range of WEIs GO Expansion is expected to is illustrated in Section 5.7.4.
realize for the region are described in Table 5.5.

Table 5.5: Potential Wider Economic Impacts of GO Expansion

Type Benefit

GO Expansion provides faster and more frequent service across the region
Agglomeration - bringing and delivers new stations. This will reduce the time it takes to travel between
firms closer together the region’s economic or employment centres, as discussed in Strategic
in terms of generalized Benefit 8. Agglomeration benefits are expected to occur as firms become
journey time closer together in terms of time – this allows firms to benefit from increased
exchange of ideas in face to face meetings or business transactions.

GO Expansion allows firms (employers) and workers (employees) easier access to

one another. For example, GO Expansion significantly decreases commute times
by rail, which expands the range of locations someone can live and still reach work
Expanded Commute Shed in a reasonable time. In other regions, this expanding Commute shed’ (the amount
of people who can travel to work in a set time, as discussed in Strategic Benefit
7), has been shown to increase productivity as employer needs and desirable
employment opportunities are better aligned through reduced travel times.

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

5.7 Economic Case Conclusion

Summary Figure 5.2: GO Expansion Economic Summary – Network

The Economic Case compares costs and benefits

Operating and Maintenance Incremental
to determine the overall economic viability Costs
of an investment. This analysis considers the Fleet
magnitude of costs and benefits as well as: Corridor Costs + Terminal Value
Benefits

• Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) – the net Total Costs

benefits divided by the net costs, which Total Benefits
is used to indicate how many benefits
Transit User Time Savings
are realized per dollar spent.
Auto User Time Savings
• Net Present Value (NPV) – the net
Auto Operating Cost Savings
benefits minus net costs, which is used
to indicate the overall magnitude Safety Benefits
of net benefits to the region. Health Benefits
Reduced GHG Emissions
A summary of the Economic Case is provided
in Table 5.6, Figure 5.2, and Figure 5.3 Reduced Air Pollution

0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000

VALUE (MILLION 2017 CAD $)

Net Present Value $25,925

Benefit Cost Ratio 2.6

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 CHAPTER 5 :Economic Case

Table 5.6: Economic Case Summary

Present Value of Economic Impact

Total Lakeshore West Kitchener Barrie Stouffville Lakeshore East System-Wide
(Million 2017 CAD $)

Total Incremental Costs $16,220 $2,520 $1,930 $3,520 $2,450 $2,000 $3,800

Capital $12,220 $2,240 $960 $2,550 $1,680 $2,150 $2,640

Corridor $8,500 $1,160 $630 $2,130 $1,140 $1,540 $1,900

Fleet $3,720 $1,080 $330 $420 $540 $610 $740

Operating & Maintenance Costs $4,340 $360 $1,000 $1,020 $830 -$100 $1,230

Operating $1,860 $170 $720 $500 $440 -$130 $160

Maintenance $2,480 $190 $280 $520 $390 $30 $1,070

Terminal Value -$340 -$80 -$30 -$50 -$60 -$50 -$70

Total Benefits $42,145 $7,120 $5,590 $13,040 $4,270 $8,330 $3,795

Total User Benefits $40,700 $6,930 $5,510 $12,830 $4,190 $8,100 $3,140
Transit User (reduced travel times
$35,430 $5,720 $5,020 $11,720 $3,700 $6,690 $2,580
and increased frequencies)
Auto Operating Cost Savings $1,940 $420 $180 $460 $170 $500 $210

Auto User (Decongestion) $3,330 $790 $310 $650 $320 $910 $350

Total External Benefits $1,445 $190 $80 $210 $80 $230 $655
Reduction in Accidents Resulting
$550 $120 $50 $130 $50 $140 $60
in Death or Injury
Increased Physical Activity $565 $565

GHG Emission Reductions $220 $50 $20 $50 $20 $60 $20

Reduced Air Pollution $110 $20 $10 $30 $10 $30 $10

Economic Case Factors

Net Present Value $25,925 $4,600 $3,660 $9,520 $1,820 $6,330 N/A

Benefit Cost Ratio 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.7 1.7 4.2 N/A

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Figure 5.3: GO Expansion Economic Summary – By Line

Total present value

ECONOMIC IMPACT (MILLION 2017 CAD $)

$50,000 of incremental costs

Total present value

$40,000 of benefits

$30,000

$20,000

$10,000

0
Total Lakeshore Lakeshore Kitchener Barrie Stouffville
West East

Total Lakeshore West Kitchener Barrie Stouffville Lakeshore East

Net Present Value

$25,925 $4,600 $3,660 $9,520 $1,820 $6,330
(Million 2017$)

Benefit Cost Ratio 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.7 1.7 4.2

Note: System-wide costs and benefits not shown

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 CHAPTER 5 :Economic Case

Conclusions
Overall, the GO Expansion program’s improved GO Expansion’s benefits exceed costs
service offering is forecast to deliver high across the entire network and on a line by
value for money for the GTHA – significantly line basis. The program will realize nearly
improving welfare above and beyond the $42.2 billion in benefits. The overall project
resources invested to deliver the program: will have a BCR of 2.6 – indicating that for
every $1.00 invested in GO Expansion, the
Passenger time savings worth region will see a welfare benefit valued at
$2.60. In addition, the NPV of the program
$35.4 billion is estimated to be $26 billion – which is
equal to a benefit of $9,000 per household
Auto operating cost savings worth in the GTHA, indicating that the region
will realize significant welfare benefits
$1.9 billion beyond the cost to deliver the program.
Each line included in the GO Expansion
Road user benefits worth program will also have benefits that
exceed the costs of delivery, which
$3.3 billion illustrates how investing in GO Rail will
benefit the GTHA as a whole – including
Safety, health, and environmental communities that can access the Barrie,
benefits worth Kitchener, and Stouffville lines that see
significant service improvements.
$1.5 billion

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Benefit Dependencies and Risk Other Benefits and Benefits Not Considered
GO Expansion's strong economic performance is Key benefit risks that should be considered The FBC for GO Expansion includes a range of
based on the significant benefits it can generate as the project is advanced include: economic benefits that illustrate and estimate the
relative to the costs of investment. These benefits benefits of the investment to the region. While
• Demographic and economic factors
are connected to the six actions included in efforts have been made to estimate the core
such as lower regional growth,
the GO Expansion program and are realized benefits associated with major rail investments,
potentially affecting demand
when existing customers on GO Rail have a there are two sets of additional benefits that have
faster trip with improved frequencies and auto • Changes in cost of travel on other modes, not been included in the core Economic Case:
travellers switch to GO Rail based on travel time which may reduce the benefit per trip on GO
• Benefits that have been estimated, but require
improvements. Key considerations that shape Rail or make other modes more attractive
further development and analysis before they
Metrolinx’s ability to realize these benefits are: than assumed in this Business Case
are included as core benefits in Metrolinx
• Ensuring delivered service runs In addition to realizing benefits, the overall Business Cases
at a comparable speed and Economic Case for GO Expansion is also shaped • Benefits that have not been estimated due
frequency to the proposed service by the level of costs relative to benefits realized. to limitations in modelling and analytic
concepts in this Business Case Key considerations to minimize cost risks include: methodology, but are anticipated to have a
• Aligning customer experience with customer • Using contracting to manage potential cost positive impact on the case for GO Expansion
expectations over the lifecyle of the rail overruns, particularly in finalizing the design This Business Case can therefore be considered
service to attract and retain passengers and its construction conservative as it does not directly estimate a
• Improving station access from current situation • Considering the impact of cost escalation range of additional benefits anticipated to arise
on the program's delivery costs – including from GO Expansion. These additional benefits
• Developing Transportation Demand materials and contractor and concession staff are discussed in Table 5.7.
Management (TDM) and other marketing
programs to minimize customer disruption • Timing issues on costs or revenue/income
during construction and encourage customers flows which constrain progress
to make use of the improved rail services • Delay costs due to prolonged approvals
process, construction hold-ups or other factors
• Robustness due to project changes such as
scope alterations
• Impacts due to the procurement approach or
contract management strategy

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Table 5.7: Benefits Not Estimated and Monetized in the GO Expansion Full Business Case

Type Benefit Description

• GO Expansion will draw customers off subways, buses, and street cars
Crowding Reduction on Local
Transit and Subways • This will lead to decongestion or crowding reductions on these services, which
will benefit passengers who currently make use of the services

• Modelling tools used in this FBC did not directly estimate the travel time savings of travellers
Travel Time Savings and Traveller who make use of GO Rail to access other new modes – such as Hurontario LRT
Benefits Across the Complete Network • Because GO Rail provides direct high frequency connectivity to these
modes, these travellers will also realize a travel time benefit

Traveller

Automobile Traveller Savings Due to • GO Expansion includes new road-rail separations which will reduce the time
New Road-Rail Grade Separations drivers spend at crossing gates while GO Rail services pass

Freight Travel Time Savings • GO Rail will decongest highways and roadways, which will also decrease travel time for goods movement

• As more drivers switch to GO Rail after GO Expansion there will be a decrease in noise in select corridors
Noise reductions due to
External • This decrease in noise has not been estimated or monetized, but is typically a net
decreased auto travel
benefit when compared to any increase in noise from higher rail frequencies

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Sensitivity Tests Sensitivity Test Analysis

Over 30 sensitivity tests were conducted This range of test results indicates the
Sensitivity tests are used to determine how
(as shown in Table 5.8). These tests overall robustness of the Economic Case for
variations in project assumptions could
noted the following conclusions: GO Expansion – if the investment outlined
impact overall project performance. A range
in this document is delivered with similar
of tests were conducted to explore: • GO Expansion performance is most heavily
specifications, it can be expected to realize
driven by realizing the costs estimated in this
• Which variables drive project performance? significant benefits to the region. While GO
document – higher costs could reduce the
Expansion has strong performance, effective
• Is there a point where the project is BCR to as low as 2.29 (25% cost escalation).
benefits realization and risk management
unfeasible and has a BCR lower than 1?
• User benefits are most heavily driven practices should be integrated into project
• What is the lowest performance by value of time – if value of time is delivery to ensure this performance is realized.
the project could realize? lower than the assumed in the FBC
the BCR could be reduced to 2.32.
• If overall benefits are significantly lower
than estimated the BCR could be as low
as 2.10 (25% reduction in benefits).
• In a scenario where benefits decrease by 25%
and costs increase by 25%, the BCR would
be 1.60, while a scenario where ridership is
not realized could reduce the BCR to 1.0.
• Analysis suggests that benefits would have
to drop by over 60% (costs remaining
unchanged) or costs would have to escalate
by over 160% (benefits remaining unchanged)
for the project to have a BCR below 1.
Of these tests, ridership realization has the
most significant impact on BCR and benefits.
This highlights the importance of ensuring
GO Expansion is delivered alongside robust
marketing, Transportation Demand Management
(TDM), and station access programming
to attract and retain new customers.

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123
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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Table 5.8: Sensitivity Test Analysis

Test Type What drives this test? How could these issues Sensitivity Test Conclusions Max Min
be managed? BCR BCR

Cost Increase • Higher costs could occur • Contractual mechanisms can Even if costs increase significantly,  2.45 2.29 
for a range of reasons: be put in place to transfer risk GO Expansion’s benefits
• Costs were increased to project delivery partners significantly exceed costs and
• Increases in labour or
by 5%, 10%, and 15% commodity prices the project has a strong BCR.
• Costs used in this business
to understand how • Project and contract case include risk estimates
higher costs may impact management inefficiencies and escalation to account
project feasibility. • Unanticipated physical or for uncertainty
environmental risks
• Operating costs • Delays in delivery
increase at 1% per year. • Changes in fuel or electricity costs

Decreased Benefits • General impacts to benefits • Specify minimum service Even with a 25% reduction in net 2.46 2.10
could be caused by many standards in contracts benefits, GO Expansion’s benefits
• Benefits were
issues, including: and enforce based on exceed costs by over two times.
decreased by 5%,
• Operators not providing output specifications
10%, and 25%
the scoped travel times • Ensure GO Rail continues to
and frequencies evolve its customer experience
• Fewer people choosing GO Rail to meet changing needs
• Inability for travellers to access
GO Stations (station access • Explore opportunities for Transit
issues such as full parking) Oriented Development
• Fewer people walking or • Invest in expanded GO
cycling to stations Station access programs

• Value of time growth • Value of time is highly • If values of time were to Even with a value of time lower 2.50 2.13
was reduced to zero correlated with economic decrease, Metrolinx could than assumed values, the case
activity – if economic prospects consider mechanisms to maintain for GO Expansion is still robust.
• Value of time was
for Ontario decreased then benefit levels – such as increasing
reduced by 5%,
value of time may decrease net travel time benefits
15%, and 25%

• Auto operating costs • Auto operating costs could • Develop partnerships with Even with a reduction of 2.54 2.52
were reduced by decrease due to increased new mobility providers to use automobile operating costs
5%, 15%, and 25% efficiencies or automation – both reductions in auto operating of 25%, the case for GO
of which make automobiles costs as a means to use new Expansion is still robust with
more competitive with other mobility as a feeder to GO Rail benefits exceeding costs.
modes (example: Mobility as • If parking or fuel prices
a Service driverless vehicles) drop, consider fare policies
• Costs could also decrease due or other means to respond
to reduced parking or fuel costs by improving the GO Rail
customer value proposition

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Table 5.8: Sensitivity Test Analysis (continued)

Test Type What drives this test? How could these issues Sensitivity Test Conclusions Max Min
be managed? BCR BCR

Cost Increases and • This test illustrates what happens • Mitigation strategy varies Even if GO Expansion was to be 2.16 1.60 
Benefit Reductions when issues that increase costs or depending on the range delivered with 25% higher costs
benefits happen at the same time of issues that drive lower and significantly lower benefits,
• Costs were increased by benefits or higher costs its BCR still exceeds 1.0.
5%, 10%, and 25%, while
benefits were reduced
by 5%, 10%, and 25%

Reduced Ridership • This test illustrates what happens • Ensuring Metrolinx develops a Even if GO Expansion realizes 1.5 1.0
Realization if the ridership in the model robust station access strategy, significantly lower ridership, it can
• Peak ridership was cannot be realized – either including: direct access by still have a BCR of 1. This scenario
reduced by 25% to because passengers choose local buses, integrated rapid is considered unlikely as efforts
80% and off-peak other modes or because transit and GO Rail stations, and programming (such as station
ridership were reduced customers cannot access stations new active travel linkages access projects) are in place to
by 50%-100% due to inadequate station (including pedestrian and bike realize potential ridership gains.
access (example: no parking, access), sufficient parking,
not enough bus service, limited and long term integration of
active travel connections) emergent mobility providers
• Ensuring potential customers
understand the benefits
of GO Expansion through
marketing and Transportation
Demand Management

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Table 5.9: Impact of New Stations on Economic Performance

Indicator
(All differences relative to the Addition of new stations
RCD presented in this FBC)
Program Specification Tests
Benefit-cost ratio Decrease by 0.08
Additional analysis has been conducted to
determine how the addition of new stations
could impact the economic performance of GO Net present value Increase by $1.7 billion
Expansion. This analysis is shown in Table 5.9.
Lifecycle farebox recovery Decrease by 3% to 107%
Adding the new stations to the GO Rail
network significantly increases ridership and
Lifecycle project costs
net benefits, though with a small decrease in Increase by $2.7 billion
(capital and operating)
the overall benefit-cost ratio. The new stations
will continue to be refined through separate
business cases to optimize their performance 2031 Annual Ridership Increase by 6 million
within the overall GO Rail network.
Key Considerations for Future
Program Planning Overall Impact New stations will increase ridership and net present value of
the program and will have a marginal negative impact on BCR.
GO Expansion’s economic performance
may be affected by the additional key
considerations for rail planning in the
GTHA as discussed in Table 5.10.14
These potential dependencies have not been
included in the modelling analysis as the
programs included in this table are largely
still under development. Economic impacts of
these dependencies will be assessed in future
programing and Business Case analysis.

14 Regional Express Rail Program Hydrail Feasibility

126Study Report – online at: http://www.metrolinx.com/
en/news/announcements/hydrail-resources/CP RailG-
PGM-RPT-245_HydrailFeasibilityReport_R1.pdf
 CHAPTER 5 :Economic Case

Table 5.10: Impact of Key Considerations on the Economic Case for GO Expansion

Key
Description Impact on Costs Impact on Benefits
Considerations

Operating costs may increase because GO

Rail extensions will expand GO Rail Rail will operate over longer distances. Capital
User benefits may increase if improved GO Rail
Rail Extensions further to serve new communities costs will also increase to provide required on
service is offered along the corridor extensions
such as Bowmanville or Niagara. and off corridor infrastructure to accommodate
fast and frequent GO Rail service.

The station access strategy is assumed This program is a key enabler of benefits. Up to 40% of
to be delivered within the BAU. new GO Rail passengers will access the system with a
Station Access Station access will support travellers This program is unlikely to significantly drive non-auto mode. Ensuring station access is in place and
Strategy to access GO Rail by non-auto modes, costs beyond what is noted in the BAU. that customers can make use of GO Rail without their
such as cycling, walking, car-pool, car is a key determinant of customers making use of GO
ride sharing, taxis, or local transit. Expansion’s speed, reliability, and frequency improvements.

Transit Oriented Development (TOD)

will be focused around and adjacent to
GO Rail stations – potentially increasing
the number of homes and businesses If TOD exceeds what has been assumed in this analysis,
located within walking distance of the Increased TOD may lead to increased there will likely be increased demand for travel at
Transit Oriented
system. The land use assumptions in operating and capital costs to accommodate GO Rail stations. If more people live near and make
Development
the model assume some growth around demand with additional service. use of GO Rail, GO Expansion benefits will increase
stations but do not reflect a complete as the program improves services over the BAU.
TOD buildout, where grey and greenfield
development intensify housing and
commercial development near stations.

High Speed Rail is under consideration

between Toronto and Windsor and
with proposals to serve Pearson High Speed Rail may be co-delivered with GO Expansion High Speed Rail will serve a similar market as the
Airport, Guelph, and Kitchener and could make use of the Kitchener Corridor. Kitchener Line – this means some customers may
High Speed Rail
Waterloo. The delivery model in the However, all incremental costs required to deliver High make use of High Speed Rail instead of GO Rail, which
Preliminary Business Case for High Speed Rail will not be incurred by GO Expansion. could reduce overall benefits of GO Expansion.
Speed Rail suggested that it would
share tracks with GO Expansion.

Hydrail is a proposed model for

The “Regional Express Rail Program Hydrail Feasibility
delivering electric traction trains
Study Report” found that Hydrail could reduce capital
in the GTHA using trains that run Preliminary analysis in the feasibility study suggests
costs for electrification but would carry new capital
on hydrogen fuel cells. Hydrail was that Hydrail trains could achieve a similar level of
costs to provide systems to develop and distribute
analyzed in a feasibility report that performance as conventional diesel or electric
Hydrail 12 hydrogen fuel cells. However, at this time a Hydrail
explored the technical feasibility and trains assumed in GO Expansion – which suggests
system of the size and scope of the GO Rail network
potential economic and financial that Hydrail can achieve a similar level of benefits
has not be delivered in any other jurisdiction so further
impacts of deploying Hydrail trains as the reference concept presented in this FBC.
analysis is required to determine if Hydrail is cost
instead of overhead catenary system
neutral to the costs presented in this Business Case.
electric locomotives and EMUs.

12 Regional Express Rail Program Hydrail Feasibility Study Report – online at:
http://www.metrolinx.com/en/news/announcements/hydrail-resources/CP RailG-PGM-RPT-245_HydrailFeasibilityReport_R1.pdf 127
 1 6
Financial Case

Full Business Case

Overview

128
Overview How is the chapter structured?
The Financial Case sets out the fiscal impact of the GO Expansion Section Content
program on an annual and lifecycle basis. Unlike the Economic Case,
which focuses on welfare benefits to society, the Financial Case is solely A description of parameters
concerned with costs and revenues associated with the project and 6.1 Financial Case Analysis and assumptions used to
their impact on government accounts. However, like the Economic develop the Financial Case.
Case, the Financial Case is prepared in parallel to the Strategic Case
objectives - the financial impact of GO Rail should be considered A description and quantification of the
in the context of the benefits and value it realizes for the region. Financial Impact
6.2 to Metrolinx
outgoing costs and incoming revenues
associated with GO Expansion.

NOTE: The Financial Case and Economic

Case both assess the costs of an investment, A description and quantification
GO Expansion
but do so for different purposes. 6.3 Funding Sources
of where the money will come
The Financial Case is concerned with the net from to pay for GO Expansion.
impact on Metrolinx and Provincial finances in
nominal (inflation adjusted) terms in order to
support investment and financial planning. A description of the potential financial
Financial Case
The Economic Case is concerned with the overall
6.4 Conclusion
risks associated with GO Expansion,
and associated mitigation options.
cost to society and is expressed in real terms
(impact of inflation removed) to illustrate the
opportunity cost of spending on GO Expansion.
For example, the Economic Case could be used
to assess the question: is spending resources
on GO Rail the best use of these resources?
While the Financial Case answers the question:
how much money is required to deliver new GO
Rail service? As a result, the costs included
in the two cases do not directly align.
Only the costs included in the Financial Case
should be used for investment planning.

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GO RAIL EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Financial Case Summary

ACTIONS COST
ACTIONS COST FINANCIAL BENEFITS

More
More All-Day
All-Day
Service
These transformational improvements will be delivered
Service through incremental investment beyond what would be
Service
required to operate GO Rail as a commuter service:
Service in
in Both
Both Directions Incremental Capital Costs:
Directions
$12.3 billion REVENUE
Trains at
Trains
least
at least every
every Incremental Operating Costs: OPERATING &
1515 minutes
$4.5 billion
minutes MAINTENANCE
COSTS
Faster
Faster
and More Incremental Revenue:
Electric CAPITAL COSTS
Efficient Fleet
Trains
$12.3 billion
MoreImproved
Accessible 0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000
and Stations
New
Stations VALUE ($)
without cost incremental cost
AnAn Expanded
Expanded
go expansion revenue go expansion revenue
Union
Union Station
Station
Financial
Indicators:
• The net investment • By 2055, • GO Expansion will generate enough
increase for revenue/operating costs fare revenue to cover all lifecycle operating costs.
GO Expansion is will equal Provincial funding will be used for the remainder of
the capital investment and initial operating subsidy
$4.5 billion 130% until revenues exceed operating costs
of operating costs

How is • Federal Government • Provincial funding will be used for the remainder of
support has the capital investment and initial operating subsidy
GO Expansion been confirmed for until revenues exceed operating costs
funded?
$1.9 billion
of the GO Expansion program.

130
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 CHAPTER 6 :Financial Case

6.1 Financial Case Analysis

The Financial Case uses parameters and Table 6.1: Financial Case Assumptions
assumptions consistent with Metrolinx’s
Business Case Guidance as of April 2018 Line Item
Description Assumption(s)
– as shown in Table 6.1. All analysis in Consideration
the Financial Case is incremental to the
Business as Usual (BAU – scenario without Discount Rate
A rate used to convert future year financial
5.5%/year
GO Expansion) scenario – meaning all costs figures into nominal values
and revenue impacts only consider those
directly related to the GO Expansion program Inflation reflects how the value of money varies over time. Under
above and beyond exisiting spending. conditions of inflation, 1 dollar today could not purchase what
Inflation Rate 1 dollar could purchase last year, nor 1 dollar in the future. The 2%/year
inflation rate adjusts financial considerations based on how
costs and revenues change over time against overall prices.

Capital, Operating
Certain GO Expansion elements may increase in value above the
and Maintenance 1%/year until 2031
rate of inflation. This increase is considered as a ‘cost escalation.
Cost Escalation

The evaluation period is the lifecycle of the

Evaluation Period 60 years of operation
project included in the financial appraisal

Assume growth in line

Fares The rate at which fares increase over time. with historic trends
for fare growth.

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

6.2 Financial Impact to Metrolinx

Background Business as Usual Investment GO Expansion Investment

The Financial Impact of GO Expansion The Business As Usual (BAU) scenario requires GO Expansion incremental capital costs of
is divided into two categories $12 billion in capital investment to maintain $12.2 billion and $4.4 billion in operating
current GO Rail services and will have $27 billion costs through to 2086. This represents a
• Cost to deliver
in operating costs (up to 83% of which will be 43% increase in costs compared to the BAU.
• Revenue impacts offset by revenues) through to 2086. These costs With this increase, GO Expansion delivers a
would only maintain the current capability of the substantial expansion in the capacity of GO Rail
These categories are presented based on
rail network with some marginal improvements services as well as introducing two-way, all-
incremental values – meaning the financial
possible as existing trains are replaced (example: day services across the system, electrification,
changes from the Business as Usual scenario
more fuel efficient trains may reduce operating and other improvements. Capital expenditure
in order to reflect the net impact of the
costs). Importantly, it would not provide any is distributed across all lines, with Lakeshore
investment. A set of output measures, or
substantive capacity increase during the peak, West ($2.6 billion), Lakeshore East ($2 billion),
tests, are also provided to indicate the
and does not include any resources required and Barrie ($3.6 billion) requiring the most
impact of GO Expansion such as cost per
to introduce two-way, all-day services across significant capital investment to deliver improved
train km or passengers per $ spent.
the system. Therefore, the BAU scenario will frequencies and two-way all-day service.
Costs to Deliver the Investment limit the ability to meet the objectives set out
in the Strategic Case, and will not realize any
Costs are subdivided into two categories: additional Economic Benefit beyond what the
• Capital Investment – capital costs include any GO Rail system currently delivers to the region.
expenditure to deliver the investment’s key
infrastructure and systems. It is a summary
of the fixed costs incurred throughout
the project lifecycle, either during project
delivery or to replace project components
when they are lifecycle expired.
• Operating and Maintenance Costs
– a summary of the costs required to
operate and maintain the investment
across day to day operations.
The total cost to deliver GO
Expansion is shown in Table 6.2.

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Table 6.2: Costs to Deliver GO Expansion

Without GO Expansion (BAU Scenario - expenditure over the evaluation period without GO Expansion)

Costs Lakeshore Lakeshore System-

Total Kitchener Barrie Stouffville
(Million $) West East wide*

Capital $12,000 $1,500 $1,000 $900 $700 $1,000 $6,900

Operating
$27,000 $3,100 $1,000 $1,200 $800 $2,500 $18,400
and Maintenance

Total Costs $39,000 $4,600 $2,000 $2,100 $1,500 $3,500 $25,300

With GO Expansion (expenditure to deliver electrified two-way all-day service)

Costs Lakeshore Lakeshore System-

Total Kitchener Barrie Stouffville
(Million $) West East wide*

Capital $24,220 $3,730 $1,910 $3,470 $2,340 $3,130 $9,640

Operating
$31,390 $3,470 $2,010 $2,210 $1,620 $2,400 $19,680
and Maintenance

Total Costs $55,610 $7,200 $3,920 $5,680 $3,960 $5,530 $29,320

Incremental (Without GO Expansion - GO Expansion)

Costs Lakeshore Lakeshore System-

Total Kitchener Barrie Stouffville
(Million $) West East wide*

Capital $12,220 $2,230 $910 $2,570 $1,640 $2,130 $2,740

Operating
$4,390 $370 $1,010 $1,010 $820 -$100 $1,280
and Maintenance

Total Costs $16,610 $2,600 $1,920 $3,580 $2,460 $2,030 $4,020

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Revenue
Revenue impacts are quantified in Table Table 6.3: GO Expansion Revenue Impacts
6.3 and have been derived from the
transportation demand model used to
Revenue (Million CAD $) Total
estimate GO Rail ridership. Revenue impacts
include revenue resulting from changes
in fare paid and number of trips taken. Without GO Expansion Revenue $22,300

The incremental change in fare

revenue is shown in Table 6.3. Revenue with GO Expansion $34,600

As with costs, the scenario without GO

Net Incremental Revenue $12,300
Expansion is estimated to generate
significant revenues ($22.3 billion) through
to 2086 (the end of the Business Case
period). However, GO Expansion fare
revenues increase to $34.6 billion.

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6.3 GO Expansion Funding Sources

GO Transit operations are currently funded by After GO Expansion is delivered, it is anticipated This operating surplus represents 63% of the
a mix of revenues and provincial government that revenues will increase more substantially incremental capital investment needed to
funding. Capital costs are typically funded than costs, which will generate an operating deliver GO Expansion which reduces the need
directly by the provincial government. GO surplus estimated at $7.8 billion. As a result, for Ontario public funds to deliver infrastructure
Expansion’s capital costs will be funded directly GO Transit could be self-sufficient in operating works as well as eliminating the need for
by the Province of Ontario through Metrolinx and maintenance terms which while unique in annual operating subsidy. However, as it will
and Infrastructure Ontario and the Government North America, is not uncommon amongst other take time for the increase in fare revenues to
of Canada. GO Expansion's revenues are international cities such as London, Tokyo, Hong materialize, it is expected that the Province of
expected to exceed operating costs over the Kong and Singapore. The operating surplus Ontario will need to provide funding to deliver
lifecycle of the project, with 2031 being the can be used to partly fund the estimated capital the GO Expansion capital investment program
first forecast year that revenue can exceed costs required to deliver the improvements in with re-payments generated in later years.
operating costs. After this point, operational service or be used for other transit initiatives.
funding may no longer be required for the
core GO Rail network. Table 6.4 illustrates the
funding sources used to deliver the capital
and operating costs of GO Expansion.

Table 6.4: Funding Sources

Funding Source Funding Amount

Incremental: $12.3 billion

New fare Incremental Revenue -
revenues Operating Costs: $7.8 billion
(potential revenue surplus)

Incremental Capital: $12.6 billion

Province of Incremental Operating: Not

Ontario Required (revenue is anticipated
to exceed operating costs, and
potentially cover some capital costs)

Federal
$1.9 billion Funding Commitment
Government

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6.4 Financial Case for

GO Expansion

Financial Case Summary

The total financial impact for GO Table 6.5: Financial Case Summary
Expansion is shown in Table 6.5.
GO Expansion delivers a range of
Financial Impact (Million Without GO Incremental
financial and organizational benefits: 2018 CAD $) GO Expansion Expansion Financial Impact
• Demand & revenue growth is
substantial at over 50%.
Total Costs $38,900 $55,700 $16,800
• While operating and maintenance
costs also increase, the change
is relatively minor at 17%. Capital $12,000 $24,300 $12,300
• Operating costs per passenger trip
reduces from $11.20 to $6.87. Operating and
$26,900 $31,400 $4,500
Maintenance Costs
• Operating margin shifts from a recovery of
only 88% of total operating and maintenance Revenue $22,300 $34,600 $12,300
costs to an operating surplus of 110%
over the evaluation period (revenues Net Financial Impact -$16,600 -$21,100 -$4,500
equal 130% of operating costs in 2055).
• The operating surplus can fund over Revenue/Operating Costs 0.83 1.10 2.73
60% of the estimated incremental
capital investment needed.

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Financial Risks and Risk Management

The Financial Case for a project focuses on its Potential mitigation approaches
affordability, funding availability, and sensitivity for these risks include:
to changes and market shocks that may impact
• Integrated risk register between
project viability. The key risks that could have a
public and private parties to ensure
serious financial impact on GO Expansion are:
that risks are transparent and
• Cost overruns, particularly in finalizing managed by the right owner(s).
the design and its construction.
• Collaboration between public and
• Inflation, increasing payments to private bodies to jointly identify
contractors, concessions or staff. issues and develop solutions.
• Econometric factors such as lower • Clear and timely decision making,
regional growth, impacting on demand particularly around change control.
or other expected outputs.
• Systematic assurance processes to review
• Stability of funding sources, particularly and challenge progress against plans.
if the project relies on third party
• Quantify risk assessment through a mixture
funding such as PPP investors.
of modelling and qualitative judgement.
• Timing issues on costs or revenue
• Prioritise activities where conflicts
flows which constrain progress.
could increase risks.
• Delay costs due to prolonged
• Incentivise innovation and other techniques
approvals process, construction
to reduce costs or increase revenues.
hold-ups or other factors.
In addition, it will be important to establish
• Sensitivity to external factors such
a funding package which is robust not
as new technology (example:
only to these risks, but to any changes in
automated or hydrogen vehicles).
cash flows due to delays in introducing GO
• Robustness due to project changes Expansion services or increases in costs.
such as scope alterations.
• Impacts due to the procurement approach or
contract management strategy.
• Consistency with government guidance or
rules such as balance sheet treatment.

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Conclusions Sensitivity Tests Revenue and Operating Costs

GO Expansion has a robust Financial Case Sensitivity tests were conducted to determine: A key element of the financial case for GO
- the level of investment applied over the Expansion is that revenue exceeds operating
• How required incremental investment
required BAU expenditure will significantly costs over the investment period. This means
varies by potential cost escalation
transform mobility in the GTHA, while also farebox revenue can be used to pay for all
improving the long-term day-to-day financial • How changing revenue levels impact operating costs and some capital costs.
performance of the railway. While the initial revenue/operating cost ratio Sensitivity testing was conducted to determine
capital investment is substantial, it is largely how changes in GO Rail operating costs and
• How ridership realization will impact
offset by the increase in demand and fare fare assumptions impact cost recovery.
revenue/operating cost ratio
revenues. The investment also allows GO Rail
Incremental Investment The base assumption is that fares will
to become operationally self sufficient which
increase following historic trends. If fares
will reduce the longer term public funding A range of sensitivity tests were conducted are frozen without opportunity for price
pressures for the Province of Ontario. that raise costs to deliver and operate GO increases then the revenue/operating cost
Expansion by 5%, 10%, and 25%. These ratio for this project will fall to 93%. This
tests indicate that incremental investment indicates the important of developing a
can increase from $4.5 billion to: fare policy that allows for fares to grow with
• $7 billion (5% increase) inflation and escalation in operating costs.

• $12 billion (15%) increase A second test escalated operating costs

at a higher rate than inflation (1% above
• $18 billion (25%) increase escalation used in the estimating process)
These sensitivity outputs reflect scenarios that to determine if fare revenues could match
are considered to be low risk due to two factors: increased costs. This tests indicates a
lifecycle cost recovery of 97%, indicating how
• Cost estimates used in this FBC already additional subsidy may be required if fares
include significant design and engineering, cannot keep pace with operating costs.
along with risk/contingency.
• Metrolinx is pursuing a contract structure
to transfer key risks to delivery partners.

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Ridership Realization
Ridership realization will significantly impact
revenue and revenue/operating cost ratio.
Peak ridership was reduced by 25-85% and
off-peak ridership was reduced by 50%-
100%. Across these scenarios, the maximum
revenue/operating cost ratio was 81% and
the minimum was 69%. These tests suggest
ridership realization is essential to meet the
performance specified in this Financial Case.
Sensitivity Review
These sensitivity tests indicate
the following conclusions:
• Unanticipated cost escalation could have
a significant impact on the Financial
Case for GO Expansion – current cost
control mechanisms will be used to
manage potential for cost escalation and
maintain the incremental investment
requirements provided in this FBC.
• Fare revenues play a crucial role in ensuring
GO Expansion reduces the need for operating
subsidy. Fare policy should be explored to
ensure GO fares continue to grow following
historic trends, with flexibility to adapt if
operating costs see a sudden escalation.
• If ridership cannot be realized, the Financial
Case for GO Expansion is severely impacted.
This highlights the crucial role Transportation
Demand Management (TDM), marketing,
and station access projects play in realizing
the Financial Case for GO Expansion.

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 1 7
Deliverability and Operations Case

Full Business Case

Overview

140
Overview How is the chapter structured?
This section describes the proposed approach for delivering Section Content
GO Expansion, setting out the division of roles and
responsibilities, key challenges, risks and mitigation.
7.1
Description of the key delivery strategies that
Key Delivery will be used to implement GO Expansion.
Strategies

Description of how GO Expansion is being procured,

7.2 including the forms of contract to be used, the
division between on-corridor and off-corridor works
Procurement and services, and the division of responsibilities for
ongoing operation and maintenance of the system.

7.3
Description of the proposed approach to operate and
Operations and maintain GO Rail during the GO Expansion program.
Maintenance

7.4 Description of key risks and how they are

being addressed, managed and mitigated
Risks Management

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7.1 Key Delivery Strategies

Overview Governance Figure 7.1: GO Expansion Project Delivery

The chosen approach to project delivery Key decisions are subject to approval by the
mobilizes local and international experience in Metrolinx Senior Management Team, the
CCO
delivering similar projects, transferring risks and Metrolinx Investment Panel, the Metrolinx &
responsibilities, and aligning incentives; all the Board, and the Provincial Treasury Board. DCCO Delivery Teams
while retaining flexibility for Metrolinx to meet Metrolinx, the regional transportation agency, organized by
future needs. It builds on global experience “owns” the project and its assets and has project
from over half a century of similar projects and overall responsibility to deliver it efficiently
services being delivered around the world. The and effectively, achieving the benefits set out
following key strategies have been adopted: in this Business Case within available funds.
• Governance
Integrated Project Team
• Integrated Project Team
Metrolinx has formed an integrated project
Support Teams
• Use of an Integrated Design Build Finance management team with Infrastructure
Operate and Maintain (DBFOM) Ontario and private consultant advisors. organized by
This enables the widest range of local and discipline
• Project Optimization
international expertise to be mobilized.
• No Transfer of Revenue Risk Discrete teams are responsible for:
• Long Range Procurement Flexibility • Project Management: to monitor
• Consultation the performance and progress of
the many discrete projects within CCO: Chief Capital Officer
• Project Readiness the GO expansion program; DCCO: Deputy Chief Capital Officer

• Project Control: to ensure the adequate Delivery Teams are accountable for delivery of
monitoring and oversight of the budget a particular project or portfolio of projects and
and schedule of projects within the managing cost, schedule, safety, quality, and risk.
GO Expansion program; and Support Teams provide specialized disciplinary
• Sponsorship: to ensure the project expertise across the program for tasks including
is delivered so as to maximize the property acquisition, design standards,
benefits identified in the business and program wide financial control.
case within available funds.
Figure 7.1 shows the structure of the
project delivery team and support
teams involved in the project.

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Delivery of the On-Corridor Works and No Transfer of Traffic or Revenue Risk Community Consultation
Services in an Integrated Alternative Finance
International experience shows that transfer Metrolinx is undertaking a full range of
and Procurement Process (DBFOM)
of revenue risk is rarely successful for urban communication, consultation, and mitigation
International experience shows that the risk and regional rail systems. Metrolinx will activities to minimize and manage the
of technical failures and cost and schedule continue to “own the customer”, meaning it impacts on local communities both during
overruns can be reduced by procuring railway will continue setting service requirements, construction and after implementation. EA
systems and services in a single contract. This setting and collecting fares, marketing the and TPAP documents, which provide detailed
model transfers a substantial degree of risk system, and ensuring integration with other information on anticipated impacts and
onto private capital, with payment depending transport. Metrolinx will determine the level proposed mitigation, are distributed to the
on effective performance. This approach serves of service to be operated but OnCorr Project public for feedback prior to provincial approval.
to internalize integration risks and enable Co will decide how to deliver them. As shown in Table 7.1, these EAs have
technical optimization. ‘OnCorr ProjectCo’,
been prepared, or are being prepared,
the On-Corridor delivery consortium, will Flexibility for Future Service Requirements for many elements of the program.
be responsible for upgrading the system
All aspects of the system are being designed Depending on the final system design, some
to deliver the benefits identified in this
to accommodate future needs. The contract additional EAs, and further amendments
Business Case, while delivering punctual and
with OnCorr Project Co will include provisions to existing EAs, may be required prior to
reliable train services during implementation
to increase capacity to meet anticipated traffic commencement of construction activities.
and for a further period of 30 years.
growth until 2055. Design of infrastructure Readiness
Enabling OnCorr Project Co to Optimize works, such as Union Station, will also protect for
reasonably foreseeable growth into the future. An integrated project schedule, work block
System Design and Service Plans
planning and rail corridor access management
Metrolinx is preparing an Output Specification system have been established to ensure that
that sets out its requirements for the On- construction activities associated with the GO
Corridor works and services, and a Reference Expansion program can be delivered with
Concept Design, including plans for train minimal disruption to existing rail services.
services and infrastructure, and conceptual Additionally, a single capital cost estimate
plans for maintenance and operation. These will has been prepared including contingencies
be provided to bidders for the role of OnCorr appropriate for the level of design development.
Project Co. However, the Reference Concept
Design will only show one possible “solution”;
bidders will be encouraged to innovate and
develop solutions that cost less, can be delivered
sooner and with less disruption, and offer greater
benefits to passengers. The contract will allow
for further optimization during the contract
term as traffic grows, new technology becomes
available, and new solutions are identified.
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Table 7.1: GO Expansion Environmental Assessment

Corridor Project EA Status Corridor Project EA Status

Barrie Rail Corridor Expansion Complete Bloomington Station Complete

Wellington Road / Rail grade crossing separation Ongoing Richmond Hill RH Train Storage facility on the Richmond
Not started
Hill Sub for Barrie Trains
Davenport Diamond Rail / Rail
Barrie Complete
grade crossing separation Steeles Grade Separation, Milliken,
Complete
Agincourt & Unionville
Caledonia GO Station Complete
Rutherford GO Station improvements/upgrades Complete Lincolnville Rail Layover and GO Station Improvements Complete
Stouffville Lincolnville Rail Layover and GO Station
Kitchener additional track Upcoming EA Ongoing
Improvements Addendum
Kitchener Heritage Rd Layover Upcoming EA
Scarborough Junction Rail/Rail Grade Separation
Not initiated
Georgetown to Kitchener GO Upcoming EA + Danforth Road/Rail Grade Separation

Rail Corridor Expansion from Guildwood Notice of

Complete USRC Union Station Rail Corridor - East Enhancement
to Pickering GO Station Completion

Rail Corridor Improvements from Don 6 SmartTrack Stations Complete

River to Scarborough GO and Danforth Complete New Stations
GO Station improvements 6 GO Stations Complete
Lakeshore
East Addendum
Oshawa to Bowmanville GO Expansion GO Rail Network Electrification Complete
on hold
Addendum
Rouge Hill Station Pavilion System-Wide
on hold
Electrification Addendum for major bridge
Not Initiated
Third Track between Whitby Rail Maintenance Facility modifications and maintenance facilities
TBD
and Oshawa GO, & 4 platform tracks at Oshawa GO.

Burloak Rd Grade Separation Complete

Niagara Expansion - Grimbsy GO Station Complete

Confederation GO Station Complete

Lewis Road Layover Facility-Phase II Expansion Complete

Kerr St Road / Rail Grade Crossing Separation Complete

Lakeshore Strachan Complete

West
Niagara Expansion - St Catharines Station Addendum

Niagara Expansion - Niagara Falls Station Addendum

Niagara Expansion - Niagara Falls Layover Addendum

Drury Lane Bridge Addendum

Fourth Mainline Track between

Not initiated
Willowbrook and Long Branch

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7.2 Procurement
Overview Conventional Design–Bid- Build (DBB) Public-Private Partnerships (PPP)
The procurement approach for the GO Conventional Design–Bid- Build (DBB) PPP models include Design-Build-Finance
Expansion program has been developed procurements are commonly used to deliver (DBF), PPP models where contractors must
to address the following objectives: public infrastructure, where requirements finance work during construction with payment
are clearly defined, integration risks are low, only on substantial completion. This motivates
• To achieve effective transfer of design
and there are specific detailed requirements timely project completion, It also includes,
cost and schedule risk to those who
and therefore limited potential for design Design-Build-Finance-Maintain (DBFM) model,
are best able to manage them;
innovation. Private contractors that are that transfers responsibility for long term
• To mobilize private sector and international selected through a competitive tender process maintenance, and Design-Build-Finance-
expertise, where appropriate, to optimize responding to a prescriptive specification. A Operate-Maintain (DBFOM) model that also
design, delivery and operations; more permissive Design-Build (DB) model is transfers responsibility for long term operations.
widely used where the output requirement is PPP models can transfer delivery and whole-
• To retain control and flexibility
clearly defined, for example a road-rail grade life performance risks to the contractor. To the
to meet future needs; and
separation, but there may be opportunity extent these risks are transferred, specifications
• To achieve competitive pricing. for innovation in the detailed design can be less prescriptive and more performance
Metrolinx is using a range of contractual based. This incentivises contractors to optimize
models to deliver GO Expansion (illustrated in their design and delivery approach to maximize
Figure 7.2). This includes a mix of conventional long term benefits and minimize life cycle costs.
and Public-Private Partnerships (PPP).

Figure 7.2: Infrastructure Procurement Models

The role and risk to the private sector increases in the delivery of an infrastructure project

Typically a combination of Design/Build and;

Design/Bid/Build Design/Build Finance and/or Maintain and/or Operate Completely

private
DBF DBFM DBFOM

Degree of private sector

responsibility and risk

Traditional Alternative Finance Market-based

and Procurement

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Metrolinx Experience Early Works On-Corridor

Metrolinx has 50+ years of experience in Early works projects are being delivered DBFOM procurement is being used to
delivering GO rail infrastructure projects, using through a number of procurement models, procure the on-corridor infrastructure, railway
conventional DBB procurements and has a including both conventional and PPP equipment and services needed to deliver the
good record of delivering these works. More procurements. Approximately 40 smaller, more GO Expansion program. The contract with the
recently Metrolinx successfully procured larger discrete projects are being delivered through OnCorr Project Co will be structured to ensure
and more complex GO rail infrastructure such conventional Design-Build (DB) and Design- the primary integration risk to the program,
as the Pearson Airport spur and the Whitby Bid-Build (DBB) procurements. These include namely managing a large scale construction
Rail Maintenance Facility using both DBF and items such as vegetation removal to facilitate project on a live operational network, is
DBFM procurements. . Metrolinx is leveraging electrification, double tracking on the Barrie properly managed, and the best value for the
its experience to ensure that the appropriate corridor, station redevelopment projects at tax payer can be achieved through innovative
procurement model is identified for each Rouge Hill and Aldershot stations. In addition, design to achieve the desired train service.
component of GO Expansion program. there are 12 larger early works projects being
Metrolinx will specify the desired train service
delivered through Build-Finance (BF) and
levels and each proponent team bidding in the
Procurement Structure Design-Build-Finance (DBF) procurements.
procurement will have to develop an integrated
These include items such as additional rail
The procurement structure of the GO Expansion solution including an operational plan, fleet
tunnels under Hwy 401 along the Kitchener
program has been organized around three strategy, and any additional fixed infrastructure
corridor, rail over rail grade separation at the
overall programs which are described below: required above and beyond those constructed
davenport diamond on the Barrie corridor
as part of the enabling works. Project proponents
• Early works - including both on-corridor and and track expansion along segments of
will need to demonstrate that their solution
off-corridor civil works such as new track, the Lakeshore East and West corridors.
enables all service levels throughout the 30 year
station improvements, grade separations and
contract term and will include infrastructure
utility relocations, that are either enabling Off-Corridor
to be built as part of the Initial Works, and
infrastructure for future service increases,
Off-corridor works are being delivered with a mix specifying any future construction required to
needed state of good repair improvements
of conventional and procurements. For existing achieve service levels later in the contract term.
or components that can be delivered early,
stations a conventional (DBB) procurement and This long-term approach means that teams will
to reduce schedule risk for the program.
DBF procurement are each being used to deliver need to consider trade-offs between capital
• Off-Corridor– including customer and a range of existing station renovations and expenditure, maintenance and operating cost
safety-related improvements to existing improvements that include state of good repair to optimize the overall cost of the system.
stations and the introduction of new stations improvements, implementation of customer and
They will need to consider issues such as ease
that are delivered in partnership with local safety initiatives and expansion of facilities to
of operation and maintenance as part of the
municipalities and property developers. meet growth in customer demand. Conventional
initial project design. Project proponents will
(DBB) procurements are also are being used to
• On-Corridor – including infrastructure also be required to manage the maintenance
deliver new stations such as Caledonia GO.
and services required to deliver the train of the equipment and infrastructure that they
services including civil works, signalling, procure and install. This creates a significant
electrification, control, communications incentive to ensure that the equipment and
systems and fleet; and services needed to materials chosen are fit for purpose, properly
operate and maintain the GO rail service. installed, and fully operable and maintainable
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Industry Capability to Deliver the It is expected that OnCorr Project Co will be

On-Corridor Procurement formed by a consortia of local and international
companies, bringing skills in rail systems,
Before choosing the DBFOM model for the
construction, railway operation, maintenance,
On-Corridor procurement, Metrolinx and
and finance. A Request for Qualifications
Infrastructure Ontario reviewed international
was issued in early 2018, and Commercial
experience and conducted market soundings
Confidential Meetings were conducted with
to ensure there are both a capability and
interested parties to discuss issues including
an appetite for such a large contract. The
responsibility and risk transfer (utilities,
response to the market soundings was
contamination, possession planning, third
positive—there is now a global and maturing
party operators, legacy infrastructure), debt
industry delivering large rail projects. While
capacity, and contract flexibility. Metrolinx
there is no single directly comparable project,
is now developing contract documents and
there are many projects recently completed
expects to issue a Request for Proposals
or underway that are similar in relevant
to a shortlist of bidding consortia in 2019,
scope and cost dimensions. For example:
with contract award in early 2021.
• Denver Eagle P3, a 55km 2-line electrified
Metrolinx and IO are considering the appropriate
commuter rail system delivered under a 30
structure to finance the project, to ensure
year DBFOM contract. The system opened
effective risk transfer through the project life
in 2016. A third line, built under a separate
while also enabling a wide range of companies
DBFM contract, is almost completed
to participate in the competition. Figure 7.4
• Gautrain, an 8km 2-line commuter rail shows a possible contract and financial structure.
system linking Johannesburg, Pretoria,
and Oliver Tambo Airport, completed
2012 under a single DBFOM contract.
The system is now being extended.
• Sydney Metro Northwest, a 36km
line being delivered under a single
DBFOM contract, under construction

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

7.3 Operations and Maintenance

Overview
The procurement structure for the GO Rail The GO Expansion project also entails expanding As the project owner of the On-Corridor
expansion program includes an DBFOM On- and upgrading existing rail infrastructure procurement, Metrolinx retains accountability for:
Corridor procurement. All bidders for the within a live network with ongoing operations—
• The overall network and the delivery of
On-Corridor contract know that they must including GO Rail and other companies
the GO Expansion (including after OnCorr
consider and deliver the GO Expansion works accessing the network such as VIA, Amtrak, CN,
Project Co is appointed as well as after GO
for the full life cycle. Project proponents will and CP. Hence, it is also important to procure a
Rail expansion capital works is complete)
need to demonstrate that their infrastructure consortium that is familiar with modernizing an
and operational solution can deliver train existing system during continued operations. • Revenue risk
service growth throughout the whole contract
Roles and Responsibilities • Customer Experience
life of [30] years. This long-term approach
means that the project proponents will need Given the importance of operations and • Final decision of service increases
to consider issues such as ease of operation maintenance activities, a clear definition of roles and approval of contractor timetables
and maintenance as part of the initial project and responsibilities within the GO Rail expansion (allowing flexibility for unanticipated
design, and creates a significant incentive program is required. Table 7.2 sets out the high- fluctuations in demand)
to ensure that the equipment and materials level roles and responsibilities between Metrolinx
• Relationship between GO Rail and other
chosen are fit for purpose, properly installed, and OnCorr Project Co that have already been
rail companies operating throughout the
and fully operable and maintainable. shared and tested in market. These principles
GTHA (i.e. VIA Rail, Amtrak, CN and CP)
are used to develop Concept of Operations
The On-Corridor procurement process is
and Concept of Maintenance documents,
deliberately seeking consortia with partners who
which are working level documentation that set
have significant international experience with the
out the future detailed working arrangements
operation and maintenance of highly used rail
between parties. These documents ensure
networks. Future GO Rail services will be much
that each party’s accountabilities and
more intensive than current service levels and
responsibilities are fully understood prior
will require a rapid response to any operational
to formalizing the Project Agreement.
issues. Maintenance on a highly used rail network
must be carefully planned and will make use of
techniques such as preventative maintenance
and remote condition monitoring to ensure
failing assets are detected and maintained
prior to the point of failure. This requires
expertise and experience that is not readily
available in the current Metrolinx organization.

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Table 7.2: On-Corridor Procurement Roles and Responsibilities

Theme Project Co Responsibility Metrolinx Responsibility

• Operation of train services, including train driving • Service specification, including allocation of paths
• Timetable planning, train control and dispatch for all for other operators
Operations operators across the GO Rail-owned network • Operating GO Bus services, including bus
• Refurbishment, maintenance, servicing and cleaning of all trains, replacement services
as well as specification and procurement of new trains • Fare retailing, revenue collection and enforcement

• Train staff including Customer Service Ambassadors as • Train staff including Customer Service Ambassadors as
Staffing
required to operate doors and accessible ramps required to operate doors and accessible ramps

• Design, build, finance, integration, maintenance, rehabilitation or

Infrastructure renewal of assets within the railway corridor (civil infrastructure,
tracks, electrification, signalling, trains, etc.)

• Station construction, maintenance, and cleaning

Stations • Reconstruction of Union Station track and platforms (except Union Station track and platforms)
• Modification of platforms for level boarding

• Construction of new maintenance and train storage

Maintenance and/or layover facilities, if required
• Work block (possessions) planning and management

• Compliance with safety, security and emergency

Safety • On station safety, security and emergency management
management policies as set by Metrolinx

• Customer communications and announcements

Other • Wayfinding, advertising, branding and brand management
• Major third-party relationships (e.g. railways, municipalities)

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Operational Framework
Although OnCorr Project Co will have significant Linked to the train schedule is the rail corridor Fleet maintenance plans will be developed using
responsibilities, it is always Metrolinx that sets the access plan for maintenance and construction. the current facilities in Etobicoke and Whitby
requirements for Project Co to deliver a reliable This plan will also be developed to meet and with potential to out-stable some of the
service, including setting train capacity, minimum Metrolinx specifications. Examples of these fleet overnight at the ends of the rail corridors
frequency of service and maximum journey times specifications include requirements for an for light maintenance and cleaning. This may
between stations. The details of meeting the adjacent corridor to be kept open to allow a require upgraded fixed infrastructure to provide
specified requirements are then determined by bus bridge across, and planning for closures adequate tracks for storage, and facilities such
the bidders. To meet Metrolinx’s rail operations to allow maintenance access for third parties – as wayside power. Fleet operating crews will be
requirements, a successful bid for OnCorr such as a municipalities or utility companies. a Project Co responsibility that will be required
Project Co will have to consider 3 key elements to meet Metrolinx and other standards. Crew
The fleet size will need to be sufficient to cover
together to optimize their bidding solution: resources will be aligned to the fleet plan and the
the train schedule at all times, including during
train schedule. Service will operate throughout
• Train Schedules: the detailed network any required periods of heavy maintenance.
weekdays and on weekends across all corridors,
train schedule that delivers the service This is reflected in the ratio of spare vehicles
with shift patterns for crews maintaining
requirements for customers. Project Co will need to have routinely available.
flexibility to meet service requirements.
The desired electric fleet is expected to include
• Fleet and crew resources: in sufficient
EMUs, which can be operated flexibly and OnCorr Project Co is accountable for the design,
quantity to provide the train schedule, plus
efficiently as short train sets in off-peak times and delivery of the new infrastructure required
spares for resilience and maintenance.
then combined into longer trains for on-peak for GO Rail expansion and the maintenance
• Fixed Infrastructure: the track layout, train hours. Maintenance of new electric fleets and of all On-Corridor fixed infrastructure. This
control system and traction power system EMUs is estimated to be less costly to perform. will ensure that designs will take into account
on which the fleet and crews operate to The current bi-level coaches are expected to ease of maintenance as well as operational
deliver the train schedule. This is designed remain in service, with electric locomotives capability. Additionally OnCorr Project Co
and developed with the capability to providing some of the motive power to reduce will ensure that all infrastructure, fleet and
deliver some operational resilience and dependency on diesel locomotives. The coaches operations are delivered safely within the context
to ensure that required performance and and diesel locomotives currently in operation will of a Metrolinx Safety Management System.
punctuality standards can be met. continue to be used on the federally-regulated
Bidders will develop their own detailed schedule sections of the network not owned by Metrolinx
that delivers the Metrolinx requirements. The and coaches will also continue to be used in the
train schedule will accommodate all GO Rail peak period on all parts of the GO Rail network.
services operated by OnCorr Project Co and
need to accommodate the requirements
of other passenger and freight operators
with contracts allowing them to operate
on Metrolinx-owned infrastructure.

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7.4 Risk Management

Overview System Performance Risk Construction Disruption Risk

In determining the approach to project New railways may not operate as As GO Expansion is being delivered,
delivery for GO Expansion, Metrolinx planned or expected, because rolling there will be impacts on the delivery of
reviewed the experience of other stock, signalling, track layouts, and train current service that need to be managed.
large and complex rail projects around crew do not perform as assumed. A Operational Performance Regime will
the world, o develop an approach to encourage OnCorr to minimize impacts on
Provision of a Reference Design to bidder will
effectively manage risks and uncertainties existing GO riders during implementation.
show one possible way to deliver Metrolinx’s
associated with delivering the program.
output specification, including Train Service Plans OnCorr will be responsible for work block
Metrolinx has implemented an industry and Infrastructure Plans. The Reference Design planning, both for its own works and for
standard risk management process for delivery will be provided “without warranty”, ensuring works by off-corridor contractors and third
of its capital works known as Integrated Risk responsibility rests clearly with the contractor. parties. OnCorr will be incentivized through
Management, which aims to assist the delivery This means Metrolinx will take no responsibility the performance regime to minimize impacts
teams to meet risk management objectives if it does not deliver the required services. on passenger services. Operating payments
via a structured, comprehensive process that will be substantially reduced if OnCorr
focuses on mitigating threats to successful System Integration Risk severely disrupts peak commuter services.
delivery and maximizing opportunities. Lack of system integration can cause of delays Construction works are planned in close
The risk management process also informs and overruns on large rail projects. For example, proximity to local communities and may give rise
Metrolinx’s contracting strategy with its when signalling, electrification, tracks and trains to complaints regarding noise and vibration.
contractors, with two key principles: are supplied under separate contracts, testing
Works will comply with all noise and
and commissioning is lengthy, and allocating
vibration related regulatory requirements
Risks should be shared in an equitable
responsibility is challenging. Mitigating system
and a construction noise regime will be
fashion between the Contracting Authority integration risk was a key reason for the decision
developed and adhered to in order to
and the Contracting Market delivering to procure on-corridor works in a single contract.
manage adverse impact to communities
the work on behalf of Metrolinx. Payments to OnCorr will be dependent on it
(e.g. nighttime and weekend working).
delivering punctual and reliable train services,
Risks should be owned by the party best
placed to manage / mitigate them. with the speed and frequency that is agreed.

A key driver for choosing a DBFOM contract for

the On-Corridor procurement was to manage
the risks associated with integration of significant
new infrastructure into an operating railway.
A summary of the major categories of risks and
associated mitigation are identified below.

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Conclusion

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GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE

Conclusion

Business Case Conclusions How will the Benefits in this FBC be Realized?
This FBC for GO Expansion builds upon over ten Across the four cases of the this FBC, GO The benefits included in this Business Case
years of study, analysis, design, and investment Expansion has been shown to provide: are the driving rationale for investment in GO
planning to present a deliverable plan to Expansion. Metrolinx has developed a benefits
• More time with family, for everyone –
transform GO Rail into a Rapid Rail system. realization program to ensure that as GO
travellers using GO Rail will get from where
This transformation is a critical investment that Expansion is delivered and enters operations
they are to where they want to go an
will allow the GTHA to grow by over 40% by that the region will realize these benefits.
average of 10 minutes faster, while drivers
2041 while providing a high quality of life and Metrolinx will realize these benefits by:
will benefit from decongested roads.
remaining a competitive place to do business.
• Setting travel time and frequency
• More money in pockets – travellers who
The four cases in this FBC together articulate requirements for each GO Rail line to ensure
switch to GO Rail will save money (a total
a compelling case to invest in GO Expansion the delivered program produces similar
of $1.9 billion over the next 60 years)
as described in Table 8.1. These four cases travel time savings as defined in this FBC
by not paying for gas and parking.
demonstrate that GO Expansion is a high
• Evolving customer experience overtime
value investment – not just for rail passengers, • More jobs and increased productivity –
to ensure GO Rail provided a competitive
but for the travellers who do not use GO Rail investing in rail will create 8,300 new jobs
and traveler friendly experience
and for the GO Service Region as a whole. per year in construction and supply-chain
industries and make the GTHA a more • Managing capital and operating cost risk
competitive place to invest and do business. through the P3 process to ensure costs are
within the levels outlined within this FBC
• Better business for Metrolinx – more
efficient trains will reduce operating costs • Delivering complementary programs and
and improved service will grow ridership plans, including GO Station access and
(doubling to over 200 million trips/year by Transit Oriented Development initiatives,
2055) and revenue leading to a 110% cost that will support ridership growth
recovery over the GO Expansion lifecycle.
• Developing additional private partnerships
• Opportunities to partner with Private to encourage station development
Sector to improve delivery and expand
development – private sector partnerships
will minimize delivery risk and support
job growth and industrial investment
in the GTHA, while ensuring GO Rail
service meets customer needs.

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Table 8.1: GO Expansion Business Case Summary

Case Case Evidence Conclusions

GO Expansion will realize four types of benefits: These strategic benefits illustrate how GO Expansion
• Transportation Benefits – faster journey times and higher frequencies will directly address the problem statement:
will double annual ridership to over 200 million (daily trips exceeding • It will provide new transportation choices that can accommodate
Strategic Case 630 thousand, with less congestion for drivers due to 165,000 fewer significant population growth and help tackle congestion.
car trips a day) while ensuring the network has reduced subsidy
• It will provide the foundations of a region wide Frequent
requirements and can accommodate demand growth past 2055.
Rapid Transit Network (as described in the 2041 RTP).
• Quality of Life Benefits – connecting nearly 30% of the GTHA’s population
• It will support the GTHA in maintaining a high
with fast, frequent, and reliable services while also supporting a healthier
quality of life, prosperous economy, and protected
region by adding 15 million walk and cycle trips to stations a year.
environment as its population grows by over 40%.
• Economic Prosperity – reducing congestion and saving commuters up to 10
Based on this evidence, the Strategic Case for GO Rail
minutes a trip while also creating 8,300 annual job equivalents over twelve
justifies it as an investment to achieve regional policy
years in construction and supply-chain industries and decreasing journey times
and realize the benefits of rapid growth.
by up an average of 25 minutes between Urban Growth Centres in the off-peak.
• Protected Environment – reducing emissions per rail trip by 70% and total
Greenhouse Gas emissions by 13.5 megatonnes, while also reducing
Criteria Air Contaminants and other pollutants that impact human health.

The Economic Case for GO Expansion assessed a range of benefits and costs: GO Expansion’s benefits significantly exceed costs:
• Incremental economic costs of $16.2 billion over the investment lifecycle • GO Expansion realizes $42.1 billion in benefits by investing $16.2
• Economic benefits of 42.2 billion, including: billion resulting in a BCR of 2.6 to 1 - this means for every $1.00
Economic Case invested in GO Expansion, the region will benefit by $2.60.
• Transit user benefits of $35.4 billion
• Road user benefits of $3.3 billion • This is an NPV of $25.9 billion, meaning a benefit
of nearly $9,000 per household.
• Auto Operating Cost savings of $1.9 billion
• Accident reduction and health improvement benefits of $1.1 billion Based on this evidence, the Economic Case justifies investment GO
Expansion as means to realize economic benefits in Ontario.
• Emission reduction benefits of $330 million

• Without GO Expansion, GO Rail will require a net investment (capital and GO Expansion’s incremental investment of $4.5 billion will allow Metrolinx
operating costs minus revenues) of $16.6 billion over the next 60 years. to transform GO Rail from a commuter system into a world class Rapid Rail
• GO Expansion requires a net investment of $21 billion in the same time period, system that doubles ridership, saves passengers 10 minutes per trip, and
Financial Case meaning the net incremental investment for GO expansion is $4.5 billion. realizes significant benefits while reducing the need for operating subsidy.
• In addition the incremental revenue generated by GO Expansion Based on this evidence, the Financial Case suggests that GO Expansion is
could allow GO Rail to run without subsidy beyond 2031 and a beneficial investment with a manageable level of required investment.
achieve an revenue/operating ratio of 130% by 2055.

Metrolinx has conducted extensive project development, environmental GO Expansion has undergone significant development – from a
assessment, and operational planning projects to ensure GO technical design perspective as well as from a project governance and
Expansion is deliverable. In addition, an innovative P3 model will procurement practice that draws from international best practice.
Deliverability minimize risk and support delivery on time and budget.
and Operations Based on this evidence, the Deliverability and Operations Case,
Case is found to demonstrate GO Expansion is readily deliverable.

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Recommendations Next Steps

Based on the performance across these four Following Metrolinx’s stage-gate process,
cases, Metrolinx will submit this FBC to the the GO Expansion program will continue
Minister of Transportation to inform decision to progress through several next steps:
making on future transportation investment.
• The program is moving forward to
the Province for decisions, informed
by this Full Business Case.
• As of November 2018, Metrolinx is
conducting a Request for Qualifications
(RFQ) process to shortlist potential
partner consortiums to deliver
the GO Expansion program.
• Pending approval by the Province and
the successful shortlisting of potential
partners, Metrolinx will launch a Request
for Proposal (RFP) for GO Expansion.
• Metrolinx will develop a benefits
realization plan to ensure that the benefits
described in this FBC are protected
through the procurement process.
• If significant changes are made to the
program during procurement, an updated
Full Business Case will be produced.
• Once the program is in service, Metrolinx
will produce a Post In-Service Business
Case to review the actual costs and
performance of the program.

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Acknowledgements
Metrolinx would like to thank several firms
that provided significant support in producing
the GO Expansion Full Business Case:
• First Class Partnerships
• Steer
• EY
• Jacobs
The business case also benefited
from insights provided by Metrolinx's
Capital Oversight Committee:
• Sarah Clark
• Howard Permut
• Michael Lewis
• Ed Martin
• Howard Shearer
• Bryan Davies
Finally, the GO Rail Expansion Full Business
Case has been independently peer-reviewed.
The focus of the peer review was to confirm
that the evidence provided in the business
case is robust and constitutes high quality
transport appraisal to inform decision-making.
The feedback received was considered
during the development of the final version
of this document. We would like to take
this opportunity to thank Martin Gray and
Associate Directors Samantha Hernandez and
Martin Smith from Steel Associates Limited,
and Richard Davies, a freelance specialist
in rail strategy, bidding and economics for
their contributions to this peer review.

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Glossary

As defined in the Provincial Policy Statement (2014): This describes the challenge of moving people between
human powered travel, including but not limited to transit stations, mobility hubs, or fixed-route transit services
Active Transportation walking, cycling, inline skating, and travel with the use of and their home, workplace or other major destination. The
mobility aids, including motorized wheelchairs and other concept applies broadly to making improvements in transit
power-assisted devises moving at a comparable speed. access for all people trying to reach transit regardless if
they live within one mile of a transit station or mobility hub.
A scenario used in Business Case analysis that reflects Alternatives to driving and parking a car can be advanced
First- and last-mile
the future state of the region (including population, with, for example, programs that support carpooling;
employment, and the transportation network) without the well-maintained infrastructure that facilitates walking and
Business As Usual cycling, prioritizes transit access; and initiatives that support
investment that is appraised in the Business Case. In this
document, Business as Usual (BAU) refers to the future new mobility, like on-demand shuttle services. It can also
state of the region and GO Rail without GO Expansion. describe moving goods between major intermodal hubs,
such as rail yards and airports, and their final destination,
such as retail stores, restaurants or even customers’ homes
An economic indicator that reflects the relationship
Benefit Cost Ratio between benefits and costs of an investment. A BCR greater
than 1 indicates the projects benefits exceed costs. This Business Case aligns with the part four of
Metrolinx’s stage gate process (Design and Procurement
Full Business Case Preparation). The Full Business Case advances an
Transit infrastructure and service with buses running in
investment to procurement and funding by confirming
their own exclusive right-of-way, fully separated from traffic,
its scope, benefits, costs, and delivery approach.
typically with signal priority measures in place and longer
Bus Rapid Transit
spacing between stops than conventional bus routes
(typically 500 metres to 1 kilometre) to maintain higher
Greater Golden A transportation demand model used for
average speeds and ensure reliability of the service
Horseshoe Model investment analysis and long range planning.

Pollutants that contribute to smog, acid

Criteria Air Contaminants
rain, and human health impacts. Greater Toronto and The combined area of Hamilton, Halton Region, Peel
Hamilton Area Region, York Region, Durham Region, and Toronto.
A procurement approach where a private partner (typically
a consortium of companies) is responsible for designing,
DBFOM
building, financing (partially or completed), operating, Greenhouse Gases Emissions that contribute to climate change.
and maintaining an investment for a set contract period.

A strategy to deliver seamless integrated transportation

Hydrogen Trains that use hydrogen fuel cell powered engines
systems to the traveller. It is inclusive of architecture, urban
Powered Trains for traction power. Also referred to as “Hydrail”.
design, landscape architecture, signage and wayfinding, and
integration of public art. Design excellence encompasses
Design Excellence
all of the touch points at which the traveller interacts
with the transportation system, including delivery of:
universal access and accessibility, fare integration, safety The first Business Case prepared for a project in
and comfort, trip planning and integrated technology. line with part two of Metrolinx’s stage gate process
Initial Business Case (Feasibility and Options Analysis). This Business Case
compares potential investments to identify if there
Electric trains where traction power is supplied
is merit in further design and development.
Electric Multiple Units by multiple train car, as opposed to locomotives
at the front or back of the train.

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Transit infrastructure and services consisting of light Developments that are planned and designed to
Transit Oriented
rail vehicles running in an exclusive right-of-way, fully integrate with transit in order to encourage increased
Development
separated from traffic, typically with transit signal ridership and compact mixed-use developments.
Light Rail Transit priority measures in place and longer spacing between
stops than conventional transit routes (typically 500
metres to 1 kilometre) to maintain higher average Existing or emerging downtown areas shown in Schedule 4
speeds and ensure reliability of the service. in the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2017,
and as further identified by the Minister (of Municipal Affairs)
Urban Growth Centres on April 2, 2008. They represent twenty-five downtown
areas that are intended to be mixed-use, high-density,
The percentage of person-trips made by one mode of travel
Mode Share and transit-supportive focal points for residential and
relative to the total number of trips made by all modes.
employment growth and intensification in a municipality.

The total economic value of a project. Determined A measure of roadway use, commonly used in estimating
by subtracting project costs from its total congestion, that reflects the distance that an individual
Net Present Value
benefits. A positive Net Present Value indicates drives, or, more typically, the cumulative distance driven
that the project’s benefits exceed its costs. by all vehicles in an urban region during a specified
Vehicle-Kilometres
period of time. Vehicle kilometres travelled can reflect
Travelled
the link between land use and transportation. Land
This Business Case is aligned with step three of Metrolinx’s uses that are further away from each other result in
stage gate process (Preliminary Design) and develops longer trip lengths, more traffic on roadways and
Preliminary Design
a more detailed design for one or more investment more vehicle kilometres travelled, for example
Business Cases
options discussed in an Initial Business Case. It is
used to secure funding for a potential investment.

Benefits from investing in transportation that

The Reference Concept Design illustrates how an investment
lead to a more productive region. Typically these
be delivered. This reference concept design is used to:
benefits include agglomeration (enabling increased
Reference Concept • Demonstrate that a working approach to Wider Economic Impacts
innovation, collaboration, and productivity) and
Design deliver GO Expansion is possible. labour supply benefits (increased job access for
• Determine a budget and construction schedule employee and a larger labour pool for employers).
to be approved by Treasury Board.

As in the Provincial Policy Statement (2014), a set

of strategies that result in more efficient use of the
transportation system by influencing travel behaviour
by mode, time of day, frequency, trip length, regulation,
route, or cost. Examples include: carpooling, vanpooling,
Transportation Demand and shuttle buses; parking management; site design
Management and on-site facilities that support transit and walking;
bicycle facilities and programs; pricing (road tolls
and/or transit discounts); flexible working hours and
telework; high occupancy vehicle lanes; park-and ride;
incentives for ridesharing, using transit, walking and
cycling initiatives to discourage drive alone trips.

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Appendix: Peer Review

Overview of the GO Expansion Business Case Peer Review

Introduction Peer Review Process With the business case provided in draft,
reviewers were advised that the document’s
Metrolinx engaged two independent The review comprised of three broad tasks:
visual design would be further optimized once
professionals to undertake a peer review
• Review the content of an early draft of final document inputs were available. The
of the GO Expansion Full Business Case:
the GO Expansion Full Business Case. version of the business case provided did not
• Richard Davies is a freelance specialist in rail include an executive summary, conclusion,
• Develop a report outlining the outcome of
strategy, bidding and economics. He recently table of contents, glossary, and table of figures/
the peer review including any suggested
supported the United Kingdom’s Department tables; all of which were developed upon
modifications and feedback, considering
for Transport’s DfT Rail's Passenger Services final inputs. During the peer review process,
areas of input Metrolinx had identified.
team on franchise policy, including the the Metrolinx team and the peer reviewers
design of the new West Coast Partnership for • Provide any comments directly to the GO held a series of discussions to discuss the
services on the new high speed railway that Expansion Full Business Case document results and findings of the peer review.
the UK is building, and was previously Chief that complement the reviewers report.
Economist of the UK’s Strategic Rail Authority.
The peer reviewers were asked to critically
• Martin Gray is the founder and Managing assess the overall document including the
Director of Steel Associates Limited, Context Chapter, Proposed GO Expansion
a boutique management consultancy program Concept Chapter, Strategic Case,
based in London. Supported by Associate Economic Case, Financial Case, and the
Directors Samantha Hernandez and Martin Deliverability and Operations Case.
Smith, their achievements include taking
Generally, the review focussed on whether
the lead on high-value projects within
the business case captured the foundational
High Speed 2, Crossrail, Network Rail,
and essential elements required for the
Transport for London, Heathrow Express,
GO Expansion Program, ensuring there
Houses of Parliament and Paddington
were no missing elements. It was also
Station Commercial development.
important to determine whether the GO
The primary focus of the peer review was Expansion Full Business Case is of the
to determine whether the evidence and best standards for transportation appraisal
information provided in the GO Expansion for major infrastructure investments.
Full Business Case is robust and constitutes
high quality transport appraisal to inform
decision-making. We would like to take this
opportunity to thank Martin Gray and associates,
and Richard Davies for their contributions.

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Overall Comments Some Key Findings and Recommendations

• Both reviewers agreed the business case The following are excerpts from the final peer • The Economic Case: “The forecast growth
is expansive in content, covers many areas review reports. It is important to note, this in off-peak demand is considerable, but
expected in the Full Business Case and is reflects only a portion of their comments. needs to be set in context with the lack
akin to the five-case method used in the UK of significant off-peak GO Rail service at
Richard Davies
for project business cases (a requirement of present” and “some monetary amounts
the UK Treasury’s Green Book Guidance). • “The case is well presented and does a are in NPV terms and others are not;
good job in weaving together the many this should be clarified in the text”.
• Both reviewers commended the use of
aspects of the scheme, including project
infographics, which helps illustrate many • The Financial Case: “More might be said on
planning, governance, service development
of the key points of the program and the basis of the capital cost estimates, i.e.
and construction and setting in the context
help explain generally complex issues. on what basis they are being judged to be
of the Toronto area’s transportation
reasonable, what contingencies are being
• Generally, the material was clear and much priorities. The material is generally very
allowed for and the costs of disruption during
of the necessary content was included. clear, with many pertinent facts and
scheme construction. If the approach to
However, reviewers suggested improving the insights in tables and call-out boxes which
contingencies is through the use of a DBFOM
narrative, that is, when details are provided help illustrate many of the key features
approach, then some assurance (from early
‘in the story’ and providing insight to the of the case. The use of infographics is
supplier engagement) that these risks can
centrality of the project to the region/public. excellent, and they help illustrate many
reasonably be absorbed might be provided”.
of the key points of the scheme”.
• Both reviewers identified the Economic Case
• The Deliverability and Operability Case:
as being most robust while the Deliverability • “The document reflects the five-case
“It would be good to set out as clearly
and Operations Case needed further method used in the UK for project
as possible why the proposed DBFOM
development. Reviewers offered suggestions business cases (a requirement of the UK
approach is likely to be the best compared
to appropriately strengthen content of Treasury’s Green Book guidance)”.
with eg. direct programme management
the Deliverability and Operations Case.
• The Strategic Case: “Some more insights and operation” and “It’s not really at a
about the centrality of the project to the stage a typical FBC procurement case
economic development of the region, would be at in the UK context and the
particularly Toronto itself, would be impression created in the document is that
helpful. Without the scheme economic there is more work needed before final
and employment growth would be decisions are taken. Given the complexity
constrained, potentially to a greater extent of DBFOM contracts, this seems sensible”.
than brought out in the case so far”.

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Martin Gray and associates from Conclusions

Steel Associates Limited
• The Strategic Case: “although quite The comprehensive reports of each peer
• “The Review Document is expansive in extensive, is largely inward looking. It reviewers were an essential part of the
content and covers many areas expected would benefit from focussing on how the revisions made to the draft GO Expansion Full
in a Full Business Case (FBC). Many Program will deliver the wider strategic Business Case and informed the refinements
of the infographics are well thought vision and development objectives for the made to the final published version of the
out and help the understanding of Greater Toronto and Hamilton Areas, and document. Their recommendations were
what can be complex issues”. the criticality of how the GO Expansion considered by staff and applied appropriately.
Program is fulfilling that objective”. Metrolinx will continue to use peer reviews as
• “The basic structure of the FBC is good
an important resource for business cases.
(as discussed in the General Observations • The Economic Case: “would be more
section above). It aligns with the UK accessible to the layman if it followed a
Government’s Green Book guidance for more evolving narrative that combines
business cases which adopts a 5 case an explanation about the purpose
model, very similar to that used in this and methodologies of the Economic
document. Whilst there is no reason for this Case, as well as documenting the key
FBC to follow the prescribed UK model, assumptions and findings of the analysis”.
the structure is well proven and provides a
• The Financial Case: “must address the
robust framework for investment decisions”.
real fiscal impact of the Program and must
• The underlying readability of the document therefore be as comprehensive and robust
could be improved with restructuring, as possible. In practice, it is better to seek to
building narrative through the document. over deliver in this Case, demonstrating how
Noting, the context of each chapter needs key estimates have been validated against
to be explained in full, before proceeding national and international benchmarks”.
into the details. The Peer Reviewer offered
• The Deliverability and Operability Case
structural changes for each chapter.
needs to develop elements such as: a
Procurement Plan with “specific activities,
owners and timescales against which
progress and success can be measured”;
“Evidence of active risk identification and
management”; and, “activities that might be
considered as part of the Management Case”.

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