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Game Plan: Scenario 1 - Highs Made First Unable To Break Resistance

The document provides a daily market analysis and trade recap for the ES mini futures market. It notes the previous day's high, low, and close levels as well as other key support and resistance levels. The analysis describes the market moving higher during overnight trading and continuing its move upwards during the US session. Two bullish trades are described with entry and exit points provided. The first trade targets resistance and exits partially at the target and partially on a pullback. The second trade hits its stop loss as the market reverses. Overall, the trader was able to bank almost 3 points for the day in challenging market conditions.

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197 views2 pages

Game Plan: Scenario 1 - Highs Made First Unable To Break Resistance

The document provides a daily market analysis and trade recap for the ES mini futures market. It notes the previous day's high, low, and close levels as well as other key support and resistance levels. The analysis describes the market moving higher during overnight trading and continuing its move upwards during the US session. Two bullish trades are described with entry and exit points provided. The first trade targets resistance and exits partially at the target and partially on a pullback. The second trade hits its stop loss as the market reverses. Overall, the trader was able to bank almost 3 points for the day in challenging market conditions.

Uploaded by

RICARDO
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Date: 12/07/2017 Market: ES mini Timeframe(s): Intraday – 5m,15m,60m,3500T News:

Yesterday: HIGH: 2430.00 LOW: 2419.25 CLOSE: 2424.50

Other levels: res:2451.50, res:2443.50, res:2440.00, res:2439.00, res:2428.00 sup:2403.75, sup:2417.00, sup:2475.50

Via yesterdays analysis we did react back into the demand area, where buying
emerged once again. The market provided a selling climax and the process of
accumulation (on a 5m timeframe) we must remember that accumulation on a
5m chart does not undo the negativity/weakness we have seen via the daily.
However for the immediate future we would expect higher prices. Bar D holds a
higher low with a firm close and average volume, higher prices are on the cards,
nothing to suggest otherwise. No need for other timeframes as yesterday’s
Chronicle has provided everything we need to know

Game plan: Scenario 1 – highs made first; unable to break resistance


(2428.00) or if we break slightly buyers unable to sustain price. Look for weak
demand and supply to emerge. First target being 2417.00

Scenario 2 – highs made first, break resistance decisively (2428.00), wait for
weak pullback to newly formed support and apply bullish setups, target area
2440.00 to 2443.50

Scenario 3 – lows made first; tests support at 2417.00, look for weak supply and
demand to emerge, given the average true range of the daily we would expect
the market to halt around 2440.00 to 2443.50

Scenario 4 – lows made first, break 2417.00 back into the demand area, we
would look to apply bullish setups of sorts - this would be a very tricky scenario
we have a line in the sand being 2403.75. If we break this level look for short
opportunities or perhaps a spring
During the overnight we rallied 14 points, US opens and the market drives a further six.
Bar A – we have evidence of supply, volume spikes, close is weak and under previous bars close. We
continue sideways for 45 mins slowly grinding up, until the upthrust at bar B - we can trade this,
however on this occasion I wanted to see a break of the demand line for added confirmation, after all
we are in an uptrend. NOTE – the clustering of closes the market is finding it hard push up

Bar C – entry 1, this trade is counter trend and MUST be aware of its limitations; first target would
be the axis line at 2337.00. Bar D – we hold a higher level of support, unable to reach first target,
stop moved to breakeven. Exit 1/2 at E (+2.75 points), full exit at F; we have a spring bar with a
spike in volume (+ 1.75 points)

Bar G – entry 2, why? In an uptrend, we hold a higher level of support at D (close is mid bar showing
demand), F is a spring (demand) we hold a higher local level of support (bullish), as we react from
resistance supply declines (bullish).

Bar G a mini spring with a slight pop in volume, as we rally volume increases a healthy sign
(although we must be aware of supply to the left bars A & B), bar H was the key bar for our trade as
it was going to hit our first potential target (resistance) we needed the exact opposite of what
occurred. As we reversed down stop was moved to 1 tick above entry (+0.25 points) - this was due
to my trading plan, in a previous Chronicle I had explained that any trade that is 2.50 points onside
will result in the stop being moved to breakeven. It’s unfortunate on this occasion, but has served
me well over the longer term, there is always another trade

At this point we don’t have a clear read on the market which is fine, we patiently wait. First thoughts
for bar H was a shakeout, this was shortly negated as the rally was anaemic. Bar J is a spring with
two levels of support underneath, trading this would be extremely difficult due to bar H, completely
discretionary of course. The rest of the day is a slow grinding up move, very difficult to jump
onboard if not in a position already. Sometimes the overnight produces the best moves of the day,
giving the US session little head room for progression; the trading was very tight (literally in a 6
point range for 5hrs) banking almost 3 full points in a single trade considering what the market has
offered is a fruitful day. Time to call it a day

Email: feibel@yahoo.com

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