INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

Arranged to fulfill the task of Statistics Courses

Lecturer : Dr. Iqbal Kharisudin, S.Pd., M.Sc.
International Class 2018

ARRANGED BY :
Cielo Dewi Cahyani (NIM : 4101418115)
Safa Agrita Hilsania (NIM : 4101418130)

MATHEMATICS EDUCATION
MIPA FACULTY
SEMARANG STATE UNIVERSITY
2019
 Table of Contents

Cover ........................................................................................................................... i
Table of Contents ....................................................................................................... ii
CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 1
1.1 Experiments ................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Sample Space .............................................................................................. 1
1.3 Event ........................................................................................................... 2
1.4 Operation On Event .................................................................................... 3
1.5 Probability................................................................................................... 3
1.6 Expected Frequency.................................................................................... 4
1.7 Rules On Probability .................................................................................. 4
CHAPTER II PERMUTATION ................................................................................ 5
2.1 Definition of Permutation ........................................................................... 5
2.2 Permutations of n Different Things Taken r at a Time ............................... 5
2.3 Permutation with Repetitions ..................................................................... 6
2.4 Circular Permutations ................................................................................. 6
CHAPTER III COMBINATION ............................................................................... 7
CHAPTER IV EXERCISES ...................................................................................... 8
CHAPTER V SOLUTIONS .................................................................................... 11
BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................... 15

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 CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION

1.1 Experiments
a. Random Experiments
Some experiments are called random experiments, if we are not able to
control the value of certain variable, so the result will vary from one
performance of the experiments to the next, even though most of the condition
are the same.
Example : Picking a ball from a box containing 20 numbered balls, is a
random experiment, since the process can lead to one of the 20
possible outcomes.
b. Deterministic Experiments
Some experiments are called deterministic experiments, when we can
expect to have the same result of a repeated experiments with the same
conditions.
Example : If we measure the distance between two points A and B, many
times, under the same conditions, we expect to have the same result.
1.2 Sample Space
Sample Space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiments. We
can say that sample space is consist of the things that can happen when we do
some experiments. Usually, sample space are denoted by the letter S. The
outcome in a sample space are usually called by element, member, or a sample
point.
Example : Experiment of tossing a die.
If we are interested in the number that shows on the top face, so the
sample space is S1 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
If we are interested only in whether the number is even or odd, so the
sample space is S2 = {even, odd}.

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 The Multiplication Theorem : If an operation can be performed in 𝑛1 ways and
after it is performed in any one of these ways, a second operation can be
performed in 𝑛2 ways and, a third operation can be performed in 𝑛3 ways, and so
on for 𝑘 operations, then the 𝑘 operations can be performed together in
𝑛1 𝑛2 … 𝑛𝑘 ways.

The multiplication theorem is used to determined the number of sample space.

Example : How many even three-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 3,
2, 5, 6, and 9 if each digit can be used only once?
Solution : Since the number must be even, we have 𝑛1 = 2 choices for the units
position. For each of these, we have 𝑛2 = 4 choices for the tens
position and then 𝑛3 = 3 choices for the hundreds position. Therefore
we can form a total of 𝑛1 × 𝑛2 × 𝑛3 = 2 × 4 × 3 = 24 even three-digit
numbers.

1.3 Events
Events is a set of all possible outcomes. So we can say that events is a
subset of sample space. Usually events is denoted by an uppercase like A, B, C,
an so on. We have kind of events in some experiments, it is impossible event,
certain event, simple event, and complement event.
a. Impossible Event
An impossible event is usually knowing as null set or Ø. The empty
set is called impossible event because the element of Ø cannot occur.
b. Certain Event
An event is called certain events since the element of the event is all
the element of S. or we can say that certain event is S, where S is
sample space.
c. Simple Event
Simple event is a set of events where is the set is consist of one
element only.

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 d. Complement Event
Let say that A is an event of S, where S is sample space. Then Ā is
called complement event of A when the element of Ā is element of S
but is not element of A. Complement event is also knowing as
mutually exclusive event.
Ā = {𝑥|𝑥 ∈ 𝑆 ∧ 𝑥 ∉ 𝐴}
e. Conditional Event
Conditional event is usually denoted by A|B that means the event A
occur if the event B occur.
f. Independent Event
Two events are called independent event if both of them are not affect
each other.
g. Inclusive Event
Two events that happen at the same time are called inclusive event.

1.4 Operations on Events

Since an event is a subset of a sample space, we can combine events to
form new events, using the various set operations. The sample space is
considered as the universal set. If A and B are two events defined on the same
sample space, then:


a. A ∪ B denotes the event “A or B or both”. Thus the event A ∪ B occurs if

either A occurs or B occurs or both A and B occur.

b. A ∩ B denotes the event “both A and B”. Thus the event A ∩ B occurs if both
A and B occur.
c. A′ (or 𝐴̅) denotes the event which occurs if and only if A does not occur.
d. A−B denotes the event A occur but the event B doesn’t occur.
e. A|B denotes the event A occur if the event B occur.

1.5 Probability
Probability is the chance of something to be happen or to be true. Let S is
𝑛
sample space and A is an event. We can state the probability of A by (𝐴) = .
𝑁

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 Example : experiment of tossing a coint. Let the top side of the coint denoted by
G and the bottom side of the coint denoted by H. By the experiment,
we know that the sample space is S = {H,G} or N=2. Then the event of
𝐺 = 𝑛 = 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻 = 𝑛 = 1. Therefore, we can say that the probability
of G= ½ and H=½.

1.6 Expected Frequency

Let some experiments has the number of sample space is N and P(A) is the
probability of event A. So, the expected frequency on event A is denoted by 𝐹𝐸 (𝐴).

𝐹𝐸 (𝐴) = 𝑁 × 𝑃(𝐴)

Example : if we do some experiment of tossing coint for 100 times, then we have N =
100. From the example of probability above, we know that P(G) =½. By
the formula 𝐹𝐸 (𝐴) = 𝑁 × 𝑃(𝐴), we know that 𝐹𝐸 (𝐺) = 100 ×½ = 50.
Therefore we know that the expected frequency of H for 100 times is 50.

1.7 Rules on Probability

a. 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≥ 1
b. 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴) = 1
c. 𝑃(𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ … ∨ 𝐴𝑘 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴𝑘 )
d. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)
e. 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)
f. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
g. 𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ … ∩ 𝐴𝑘 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ) × 𝑃(𝐴2 ) × … × 𝑃(𝐴𝑘 )
h. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

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 CHAPTER II
PERMUTATION

2.1 Definition of Permutation

Frequently, we are interested in a sample space that contains, as
elements, all possible arrangements of a group of objects. For example, we
may want to know how many different arrangements are possible for sitting
6 people around a table, or we may ask how many different ways are
possible for drawing 2 lottery tickets from a total of 20. The different
arrangements are called permutations.
Example : In how many ways can three different books, A, B and C, be
arranged on a shelf?
Solution : The three books can be arranged on a shelf in 6 different ways, as
follows: ABC, ACB, BCA, BAC, CAB, CBA. It can be seen that the
order of the books is important. Each of the 6 arrangements is therefore
a different arrangement of the books. Notice that the first book can be
chosen in 3 different ways. Following this, the second book can be
chosen in 2 different ways and following this, the third book can be
chosen in one way. The three books can therefore be arranged on a
shelf in 3 × 2 × 1 = 6 ways. In general, n distinct objects can be
arranged in 𝒏(𝒏 − 𝟏)(𝒏 − 𝟐) … (𝟑)(𝟐)(𝟏) ways. We represent this
product by the symbol n!, which is read “n factorial”. Three objects
can be arranged in 3! = (3)(2)(1) = 6 ways. By definition, 1! = 1 and 0!
= 1.
2.2 Permutations of n Different Things Taken r at a Time
The number of permutations of n different objects, taken r at a time, is
denoted by 𝑛𝑟𝑃 . To obtain a formula for 𝑛𝑟𝑃 , we note that the first object can be
chosen in n different ways. Following this, the second object can be chosen in
(n – 1) different ways and following this, the third object can be chosen in (n – 2)
different ways. Continuing in this manner, the 𝑟 𝑡ℎ (i.e. the last) object can be
chosen in n – (r –1) = (n – r + 1) ways.
𝑛
𝑟𝑃 = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) … (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1)
𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) … (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1)(𝑛 − 𝑟) … (3)(2)(1)
=
(𝑛 − 𝑟) … (3)(2)(1)

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 𝑛!
= (𝑟 < 𝑛)
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!
Example : Two lottery tickets are drawn from 20 for a first and a second
prize. In how many ways can this be done?
Solution : The total number of ways is

20
20! 20! 20 𝑥 19 𝑥 18!
2𝑃 = = = = 20 𝑥 19 = 380.
(20 − 2)! 18! 18!

2.3 Permutation with Repetitions

Given a set of n objects having 𝑛1 elements alike of one kind, and 𝑛2
elements alike of another kind, and 𝑛3 elements alike of a third kind, and so on
for k kinds of objects, then the number of different arrangements of the n objects,
𝑛 𝑛!
taken all together is (𝑛 , 𝑛 , … , 𝑛 ) = , where 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑘 = 𝑛.
1 2 𝑘 𝑛1 !𝑛2 !…𝑛𝑘 !

Example : How many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow, and 2 blue bulbs be
arranged in a string of Christmas tree lights with 9 sockets?
Solutions : The total number of distinct arrangements is
9 9!
( ) = 3!4!2! = 1260.
3,4,2

2.4 Circular Permutations

Permutations that occur by arranging objects in a circle are called
circular permutations. It can be shown that the number of permutations of n
distinct objects arranged in a circle is (𝒏 − 𝟏)!.

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 CHAPTER III
COMBINATION

In many problems, we are interested in the number of ways of

selecting r objects from n without regard to order. These selections are
calledcombinations. A combination is actually a partition with two cells, one cell
is containing the r objects selected and the other cell containing the (𝑛 −
𝑟) objects that are left. The number of such combinations, denoted by
𝑛 𝑛
(𝑟, 𝑛 − 𝑟) is usually shortened ( ) or 𝑛𝑟𝐶 .
𝑟
The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is
𝑛 𝑛!
( )= .
𝑟 𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)!

Example : From 4 chemists and 3 physicists, find the number of committees

that can be formed consisting of 2 chemists and 1 physicist.
Solution :
4 4!
The number of ways of selecting 2 chemists from 4 is ( ) = 2!2! = 6
2
3 3!
The number of ways of selecting 1 physicist from 3 is ( ) = 1!2! = 3
1
Using the multiplication theorem with 𝑛1 = 6 and 𝑛2 = 3 it can be seen that
we can form 𝑛1 𝑥 𝑛2 = 6 𝑥 3 = 18 committees with 2 chemists and 1
physicist.

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 CHAPTER IV
EXERCISES

1. Define a sample space for each of the following experiments :


a. The heights, in centimetres, of five children are 60, 65, 70, 45, 48.
b. Select a number at random from the interval [0, 2] of real numbers. Record
the value of the number selected.
2. Consider the experiment tossing die,
a. Define the sample space!
b. Let B = “the odd number in die”. List the member of B!
3. Given the sample space S = {t | t ≥ 0}, where t is the life in years of certain
electronic component, then the even A that the component fails before the end
of the fifth year. List the member of A!
4. Consider the sample space 
S = {book, cell phone, mp3, paper, stationery,
laptop}. Let A = {book, stationery, laptop, paper}. Determine the complement
of A!
5. Let A, B and C be events defined on the same sample space of an experiment.
Determine the following statements are true or false!
a. A and A′ are mutually exclusive events. 

b. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then A′ and B′ are mutually exclusive. 

c. If the occurrence of A implies the occurrence of B, then the occurrence of

A′ implies the occurrence of B′. 


6. Which of the following events are equal?

A = {1,3};
B = {𝑥|𝑥 is a number on a die};
C = 𝑥|𝑥 2 − 4𝑥 + 3 = 0};
D = {𝑥|𝑥 is the number of head when six coins are tossed}.
7. John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department in a
university by the end of the semester. After being interviewed at two
companies he likes, he assesses that his probability of getting an offer from
company A is 0.8, and his probability of getting an offer from company B is
0.6. If he believes that the probability that he will get offers from both
companies is 0.5, what is the probability that he will get at least one offer from

8
 these two companies?
8. A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 industrial, 10 mechanical, 10
electrical, and 8 civil engineering students. If a person is randomly selected by
the instructor to answer a question, find the probability that the student chosen
is
a. an industrial engineering major and
b. a civil engineering or an electrical engineering major.

9. At a car park there are 100 vehicles, 60 of which are cars, 30 are vans and the
remainder are lorries. If every vehicle is equally likely to leave, find the
probability of:
a. van leaving first,
b. lorry leaving first,
c. car leaving second if either a lorry or van had left first.
10. 32 playing cards include 4 aces and 12 figures. Determine the probability of a
randomly selected card to be an ace or a figure!
11. When three dice are rolling, what’s the probability that we have three 6 ?
12. If P(A)=0.4, P(B)=0.6 and P(A ∪ B)=0.8. What is the value of P(A∩𝐵̅) ?
13. In how many different ways can the letters of the word 'LEADING' be
arranged in such a way that the vowels always come together?
14. Out of 7 consonants and 4 vowels, how many words of 3 consonants and 2
vowels can be formed?
15. There are 20 stops for the local trains running between Churchgate and Virar.
A passenger travelling between any two stops needs to buy a ticket. How
many types of tickets are required to be made to meet all the possibilities?
16. A box contains three white balls, four black balls and three red balls. The
number of ways in which three balls can be drawn from the box so that at least
one of the balls is black is?
17. 10 students have appeared in a test in which the top three will get a prize. How
many possible ways are there to get the prize winners?
18. How many 3-letter words with or without meaning, can be formed out of the
letters of the word, 'LOGARITHMS', if repetition of letters is not allowed?
19. A coin is tossed 3 times. Find out the number of possible outcomes!

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20. How many 6 digit telephone numbers can be formed if each number starts
with 35 and no digit appears more than once?
21. A box contains 4 red, 3 white and 2 blue balls. Three balls are drawn at
random. Find out the number of ways of selecting the balls of different colors?
22. A license plate begins with three letters. If the possible letters are A, B, C, D
and E, how many different permutations of these letters can be made if no
letter is used more than once?
23. In how many ways can a team of 5 persons be formed out of a total of 10
persons such that two particular persons should be included in each team?
24. Six friends want to play enough games of chess to be sure everyone plays
everyone else. How many games will they have to play?
25. In how many ways can a coach choose three swimmers from among five
swimmers?

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 CHAPTER V
SOLUTIONS

1. a. S = {60, 65, 70, 45, 48}

b. S = {x| 0 ≤ x ≤ 2, 𝑥 ∈ ℝ}
2. a. S= {1,2,3,4,5,6)}
b. B= {1,3,6}
3. A={1,2,3,4,5}
̅ = {𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑝ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑒, 𝑚𝑝3}
4. 𝑨
5. a. true
b. true
c. true
6. A=C, B=D
7. We know that P(A) = 0.8, P(B) = 0.6, P(A ∩ B) = 0.5
By using the additive rule,
We get P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) = 0.8 + 0.6 – 0.5 = 0.9
8. Let I = the students majoring in industrial (25),
M = the students majoring in mechanical (10),
E = the students majoring in electrical (10),
C = the students majoring in civil engineering (8).
We know that the total number of students in the class is 53, all of whom are
equally likely to be selected. So,
a. Since 25 of the 53 students are majoring in industrial engineering, the
probability of event I, selecting an industrial engineering major at random,
25
is 𝑃(𝐼) = .
53

b. Since 18 of the 53 students are civil or electrical engineering majors, it

18
follows that P(C ∪ E) = 53.

9. Let S be the sample space, so n(S) = 100.

a. Let A be the event of van leaving first, so n(A) = 30.
30 3
Therefore, 𝑃(𝐴) = 100 = 10

b. Let B be the event of a lorry leaving first, so n(B) = 100 – 60 – 30 = 10.

10 1
Therefore, 𝑃(𝐵) = =
100 10

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 c. If either a lorry or van had left first, then there would be 99 vehicles
remaining, 60 of which are cars. Let T be the sample space and C be the
event of a car leaving, so n(T) = 99 and n(C) = 60
60 30
Therefore, 𝑃(𝐶) = = 33
99

10. Let S be the sample space, so n(S) = 32.

Let A be the event if ace selected, so n(A) = 4.
Let B be the event if figure selected, so n(B) = 12.
From the information above, we know that
4 1 12 3
𝑃(𝐴) = 32 = 8 and 𝑃(𝐵) = 32 = 8
1 3 4
So, 𝑃(𝐴⋃𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) = 8 + 8 = 8 = 0.5

11. When three dice are rolling, the number of sample space is 63 ,
So n(S) = 63 . The member of sample space that (6,6,6) is inly one. So the
1
probability of three 6 is 63 .

12. P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)

0.8 = 0.4 + 0.6 - P(A∩B)
P(A∩B) = 0.2
P(A∩𝐵̅) = P(A) - P(A∩B) = 0.4 - 0.2 = 0.2
13. The word 'LEADING' has 7 different letters.
When the vowels EAI are always together, they can be supposed to form one
letter. Then, we have to arrange the letters LNDG (EAI).
Now, 5 (4 + 1 = 5) letters can be arranged in 5! = 120 ways.
The vowels (EAI) can be arranged among themselves in 3! = 6 ways.
Required number of ways = (120 x 6) = 720.
14. Number of ways of selecting 3 consonants out of 7 and 2 vowels out of 4
7 𝑥 6 𝑥5 𝑥 4! 4 𝑥 3 𝑥 2!
( 73𝐶 𝑥 42𝐶 ) = (4!𝑥 3 𝑥 2 𝑥 1 𝑥 ) = 210.
2! 𝑥 2 𝑥 1

Number of groups, each having 3 consonants and 2 vowels = 210. Each group
contains 5 letters.
Number of ways of arranging 5 letters among themselves = 5!
=5𝑥4𝑥3𝑥2𝑥1
= 120
∴ Required number of ways = (210 𝑥 120) = 25200.

12
15. There are 20 stations. Ticket is needed between 2 stops.
That means, we simply need to select 2 stops from possible 20 stops.
20!
That can be done by 202𝐶 ways = = 190 tickets.
18!𝑥 2!

This is when we start from one side.

When we travel from the other side we will need separate ticket.
That means while going from A to B and B to A, we will need separate
tickets.
So again from other side we need 190 tickets.
Thus, the total tickets = 380 tickets.
16. The required number of ways
a. 1 black and 2 others = 41𝐶 𝑥 62𝐶 = 4 𝑥 15 = 60
b. 2 black and 1 other = 42𝐶 𝑥 61𝐶 = 6 𝑥 6 = 36
c. All three black = 41𝐶 = 4
Total = 60 + 36 + 4 = 100.
17. We need to choose and arrange 3 persons out of 10. Hence, the number of
possible ways will be :
10
10!
3𝑃 = = 10 𝑥 9 𝑥 8 = 720.
7!
18. The word 'LOGARITHMS' has 10 different letters.
Hence, the number of 3-letter words (with or without meaning) formed by
10
using these letters = 3𝑃
10!
= (10−3)!
10!
= 7!

= 10 𝑥 9 𝑥 8 = 720.
19. When a coin is tossed once, there are two possible outcomes: Head(H) and
Tale(T)
Hence, when a coin is tossed 3 times, the number of possible outcomes =
2𝑥2𝑥2= 8
(The possible outcomes are HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT )
20. The first two places can only be filled by 3 and 5 respectively and there is only
1 way for doing this.
Given that no digit appears more than once. Hence we have 8 digits
remaining (0,1,2,4,6,7,8,9)

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 So, the next 4 places can be filled with the remaining 8 digits in 84𝑃 ways.
8!
Total number of ways = = 8 𝑥 7 𝑥 6 𝑥 5 = 1680.
4!

21. 1 red ball can be selected in 41𝐶 ways.

1 white ball can be selected in 31𝐶 ways.
1 blue ball can be selected in 21𝐶 ways.
Total number of ways = 41𝐶 𝑥 31𝐶 𝑥 21𝐶
= 4𝑥3𝑥2
= 24.
22. The problem involves 5 things (A, B, C, D, E) taken 3 at a time.

5
5! 5!
3𝑃 = = = 5 𝑥 4 𝑥 3 = 60
(5 − 3)! 2!
There are 60 different permutations for the license plate.
23. Two particular persons should be included in each team. Therefore we have to
select remaining 5 − 2 = 3 persons from 10 − 2 = 8 persons.
Hence, required number of ways

8
8! 8𝑥7𝑥6
3𝐶 = = = 56.
5! 3! 3 𝑥 2 𝑥 1
24. There are 6 players to be taken 2 at a time.

6
6! 6𝑥5
2𝐶 = = = 15
(6 − 2)! 2! 2 𝑥 1
They will need to play 15 games.
25. There are 5 swimmers to be taken 3 at a time.

5
5! 5𝑥4
3𝐶 = = = 10
(5 − 3)! 3! 2 𝑥 1
The coach can choose the swimmers in 10 ways.

14
 BIBLIOGRAPHY

Sudjana. 2005. Metoda Statistika Edisi 7. Bandung : PT Tarsito Bandung.

Walpole, Ronald E., Raymond H. Myers, Shaton L. Myers, and Keying Ye. 2012.
Probablility & Statistics for Engineers & Scientics 9th Edition. Boston:
Pearson Education, Inc.

Ofosu, John Benjamin, and Christian A. Hesse. 2009. Introduction to Probability and
Probability Distributions. Accra: Epp Books Services.

Lipschutz, Seymour, and Marc Lipson. 2011. Schaum’s Outlines: Probability 2nd
Edition. New York: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

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