Chapter Three

Elementary Probability
 A probability is a measure of being (certainty) or un-being (uncertainty) of
events.

 Probability is a number that reflects the chance of an event happening, and

can be expressed as a percentage or a number between 0 and 1.

 The formula for probability is given by; P(E) = Number of Favourable

Outcomes/Number of total outcomes.

 This chapter acquaints you with fundamental probability, and important

terminologies and different probability definition and theorems.
 Deterministic and Non deterministic model
1. Deterministic Model

• The deterministic model is one of the mathematical model which

stipules the condition under which the experiment is performed
determine the outcome of the experiment.

• deterministic models produce the same output for the same input, while
non-deterministic. models can produce different outputs for the same input.

E,G y=f(x), y=2+3x-0.4x2 We can predict that if x=3, then y=7.4.

 Non-deterministic Model
• In real life, it is extremely rare that we can completely determine a y using an x,
and thus we must use probabilistic (stochastic) models.
• The path of execution is not fully determined by the computation
specification, so the same input can produce different outcomes. Statistical
models are non-deterministic.
Example: suppose you wish to predict whether the next customer will buy either a
Red car, a gray car, or a Green car. The possible values of y are "Red", "Gray", or
"Green", and the distribution p(y) might have the form.
y p(y)
Red 0.35
Gray 0.40
Green 0.25
Total 1
 Random experiments, Sample space and Events

• Experiment: Any process of observation or measurement or any process

which generates well defined outcome.

• Random experiment is an experiment that can be repeated any number

of times under similar conditions and it is possible to enumerate the total
number of outcomes without predicting an individual outcome. It is an
experiment whose result would not be predicted but the lists of possible
outcomes are known.

• Example: If a fair die is rolled once it is possible to list all the possible
outcomes i.e.1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 but it is not possible to predict which outcome
will occur.
 Cont…
• Sample space: is a set of all possible outcome of an experiment. For
example, the sample space of the above example is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Event: is a sub set of sample space. It is a statement about one or
more outcomes of a random experiment. They are denoted by capital
letters.eg when a coin is tossed, getting head is an event and getting
tail is another event.
• Mutually exclusive events: Two events which cannot happen at the
same time.
• Equally likely events: Events that have the same probability of
occurring.
• Elementary Event: an event having only a single element or sample
point.
• Independent Events: Two events are independent if the occurrence
of one does not affect the probability of the other occurring.
 Cont…
• Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event affects
the outcome or occurrence of the second event in a way the probability is
changed.
• Remark: If sample space has n members then there are exactly 2n subsets or
events.
• Example: Considering the above experiment let A be the event of odd
numbers, B be the event of even numbers, and C be the event of number 8.
A= {1, 3, 5}, B= {2, 4, 6} and C= {} or empty sample.
• Set theory: A set is a collection of objects, which are the elements of the
set. If S is a set and x is an element of S, we write x ∈S. If x is not an element
of S, we write x ∄S. A set can have no elements, in which case it is called the
empty set, denoted by ∅.
 Cont…
Sets can be specified in a variety of ways. If S contains a finite number of
elements, say x1, x2, . .. , xn, we write it as a list of the elements, in braces: S =
{x1, x2. . . xn}.

For example, the set of possible outcomes of a die roll is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, and
the set of possible outcomes of a coin toss is {H, T}, where H stands for “heads”
and T stands for “tails.” If S contains infinitely many elements x1, x2, . . ., which
can be enumerated in a list (so that there are as many elements as there are
positive integers) we write S = {x1, x2, . . .},
 Set Operations
• The complement of a set S, with respect to the universe Ω, is the set {x
∈Ω|x ∄ S} of all elements of Ω that do not belong to S, and is denoted by
Sc. Note that Ωc = ∅.

• The union of two sets S and T is the set of all elements that belong to S or T
(or both), and is denoted by S ∪ T.

• The intersection of two sets S and T is the set of all elements that belong
to both S and T, and is denoted by S ∩ T.
Thus,
S ∪ T = {x | x ∈S or x ∈T},
S ∩ T = {x | x ∈ S and x ∈T}.
 Cont…
De-Morgan’s laws.
• For any two events A and B we have
(A ∪ B)c = A c ∩ B c and (A ∩ B) c = A c ∪ B c
Some Properties of Probability Laws
• Consider a probability law, and let A, B, and C be events.
a . If A ⊂ B, then P(A) ≤ P(B).
b. P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B).
c. P(A ∪ B) ≤ P(A) + P(B).
d. P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) +P(C)-P(A ∩ B)-P(A ∩ C)-
P(B∩C)+P(A∩B∩C).
 Cont…
Finite sample spaces

In this section we will consider experiments for which there are only a finite
number of possible outcomes. In other words, experiments for which the
sample space S contains only a finite number of elements s1, s2,…sn

Equally Likely Outcomes: equally likely outcomes mean elements of

outcomes which have the same chance of occurring.

Example: when we toss a fair coin and we get the outcomes head and tail S=
{H, T}

where H means that the outcome of the toss is a head and T that it is a tail.

P(H)= ½= 0.5= P(T).

 Counting Techniques

 In many experiments, the number of outcomes in sample space S is so large

that a complete listing of these outcomes is too expensive, too slow, or too
likely to be incorrect to be useful.

 In such an experiment, it is convenient to have a method of determining the

total number of outcomes in the space S and in varies events in S without
compiling a list of all these outcomes.

In order to determine the number of outcomes, some of these methods will be

presented. In order to determine the number of
outcomes, one can use several rules of counting.
 Cont…
The addition rule The multiplication rule
 The permutation rule  The combination rule
To list the outcomes of the sequence of events, a useful device called tree
diagram is used.

Tree diagrams:-It is one of the useful methods to depict how to generate the
sample outcomes of a sample space. It helps to ensure us in identifying all
possibilities. An example of a tree diagram for determining the sample space for
a two coin toss experiment is shown below.
 First coin toss second coin toss
H
H T

T H
T
Note: that the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called a
population or a sample space.
Addition Principle (Rule)
If a task can be accomplished by "k distinct" procedures where the ith
procedures has nk alternatives , then the total number of ways of accomplishing
the task is:
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + 𝑛3 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑘
Example 1: A student goes to the nearest snack (Cafe) to have a breakfast. He
can take tea, coffee, or milk with bread, cake or sandwich. How many
possibilities does he have?
 Cont…

𝐾 = 3, 𝑛1 = 3, 𝑛2 = 3, 𝑛3 = 3,
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 3 + 3 + 3 = 9
Multiplication rule: if a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be
occurred in n1 ways, the second can be made in n2 ways, the kth can be made in
nk ways, then the whole choice can be made in (n1xn2x….nk)ways..

Example: A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the number of outcomes
for the sequence of events.
 Cont…
Solution

a. Since the coin can land either heads up or tails up and since the die can land
with any one of six numbers showing face up, there are 2 *6 = 12 possibilities.
A tree diagram can also be drawn for the sequence of events.

b. A student has two shoes, three trousers and three jackets. In how many can
be dressed?

Solution: simply you can get by multiply i.e. 2*3*3= 18.

 Permutation Rule
The arrangement of n objects in a specific order using r objects at a time is
called a permutation of n objects taking r objects at a time. It is written as nPr,
𝑛!
and the formula is 𝑛𝑝𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !

The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken all together is n! or

𝑛𝑝𝑛 .

The number of permutations of n objects in which k1 are alike (the same), k2

are alike, ... etc, then the total number of arrangements is

𝑛!
where : k1+ k2+k3 +⋯+kp = n.
𝑘1!∗𝑘2!∗𝑘3!∗⋯..∗𝑘𝑝!

Note: 0! = 1, 1!=1
 Cont…
Example : In how many ways can the letters A, B and C be arranged taken two
3! 3∗2∗1
at a time. n=3, r=2; =≫ nPr 3P2 = = = = 6
3−2 ! 1!

i.e. AB, AC, BA, BC, CA, CB.

Example : a. In how many ways can 3 students be arranged in rows of 3 chairs?

b. In how many ways can a student arrange his/her 4 different books on a shelf?

Example: How many different permutations of n objects can be made from the
letters in the word MISSISSIPPI.

Solution: n=11; M =1, I=4, S=4, & P=2.

11!
= =34650 different arrangements are possible
1!∗4!∗4!∗2!
 Cont…
Combination Rule: This type of problem differs from previous ones in that
the order of selection is not important. That is, if the designer selects yellow
and red, this selection is the same as the selection red and yellow. This type of
selection is called a combination. The difference between a permutation and a
combination is that in a combination, the order or arrangement of the objects is
not important; by contrast, order is important in a permutation.

Definition: A selection of distinct objects without regard to order is called a

combination.

𝑛!
It is written as nCr, and the formula is 𝑛𝐶 𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !𝑟!
 Cont…
Example: Given the letters A, B, C, and D, lists the permutations and
combinations for selecting two letters.
Solution:
The permutations are
AB BA CA DA
AC BC CB DB
AD BD CD DC
In permutations, AB is different from BA. But in combinations, AB is the same
as BA since the order of the objects does not matter in combinations.
Therefore, if duplicates are removed from a list of permutations, what is left is a
list of combinations, as shown.
AB
AC BC
AD BD CD
 Axioms and rules of probability
The probability of an event always lies between 0 and 1 inclusive. Thus, when
an event does not occur, its probability is zero. For instance the probability of
an empty set is zero or the probability of getting hen from a snake’s egg is zero,
since it is impossible to get a hen from a snake’s egg. On the other hand, events
that are certain to occur have a probability of one. The probability of the entire
(whole) sample space (S) is equal to one. Therefore, probabilities are values of a
set of function, also called a probability measure, for, as we shall see this
function assigns real numbers to the various subsets of a sample space (S). Now
let us formulate the probabilities here which apply only when the sample space
is discrete.
 Cont…
Axioms 1: The probability of an event is no negative real number, i.e, P (A) ≥
0, for any subset A of S.

Axioms 2: The probability of a sample space is equal to one , i.e, P(S) = 1

Axioms3: If A1, A2, A3, …., is a finite or infinite sequence of mutually

exclusive events of S, then

P(A1 U A2 U A3 U…..) = P (A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + …. =

 Cont…
Example: If we have four possible outcomes A, B, C and D, that are mutually
exclusive, are the following probabilities permissible?

a. P(A) = 0.12; P(B) = 0.63; P(C) = 0.46, P(D) = - 0.21

Based on the above postulates: P(D) = - 0.21 is not permissible, since it is not a
non-negative real number (it violets postulate 1)

b. P(A) = 9/120; P(B) = 45/120; P(C) = 27/120; P(D) = 46/120

This is not permissible, since it violets postulate two.

i.e, P(S) = P(A U B U C U D) = P (A) + P(B) + P(C) +P(D) ≠ 1

 Cont…
Derived Theorems of Probability

Theorem 2 If A and Ac are complementary events in a sample space S, then

P(Ac) = 1- P(A).

Poof: - we know that A U Ac = S  according to the properties of

complement and mutually exclusive idea.

Then 1 = P(S)  by axiom 2

= P(A U Ac)

= P(A) + P(Ac)  by axiom 3

Therefore, P(A) = 1- P(Ac)  algebra.

 Cont…
Example: If an event occurs 40% of the time, it does not occur 60% of the time.
Theorem 3 The probability of an empty set is zero. i.e, P(ø) = 0 for any sample space
S.
Proof: - Since S and ø are mutually exclusive and S U ø = S and S  according to the
properties of ø, then P(S) = P(S U ø)
P(S) = P(S) + P(ø)  by postulate 3
P(S) - P(S) = P(ø) = 0  algebra
Therefore P(ø) = 0

Example :The probability of getting four heads from a toss of

three coins is zero and The probability of getting pigeon from
snake is zero.
 Cont…
Example: If twice tossed a coin the probability of a ample space S is:

P(S) = P(HH U HT U TH U TT) = P(HH) + P(HT) + P(TH) +P(TT) = ¼ +

¼ + ¼ + ¼ = 4/4 = 1

the probably of getting two heads:

Let A be an event that contains two heads i.e., A = {HH} therefore A subset of
S, then P (A) = P (HH) = ¼, hence P(S) ≥ P (A) => 1 ≥ ¼.
 Cont…
Theorem 5: 0 ≤ P (A) ≤1, for any event A.

facts that p(ø) ≤ p(A) ≤p( S) for any event in a sample space S, then we have: P
(ø) ≤ P (A) ≤ P (S), and then P (ø) = 0 and P(S) = 1.

Therefore:- 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, but P(A) cannot be greater than one or less than
zero.

Theorem 6: If A and B are any two events in a sample space S, then P (A U B)

= P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩B)

Using the help of Venn-diagram, let a, b and c are probabilities to the mutually
exclusive events A ∩ B, A ∩ Bc and Ac ∩ B P(A U B) = a + b + c=(a+b)+
(c+a) – a = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B).
 Cont…

A B

b a c

Theorem 6. If A, B and C are any three events in a sample space S, then

P(A U B U C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A B) – P(A C) – P(B C) + P(A B
C).
You know that A U B U C = A U (B U C)
 Cont…
P[A U(B U C)] should be shown P[A U (B U C)] and P (B U C), then

P(A U B U C) = P[A U (B U C)]

= P(A) + P(B U C) – P[A ∩ (B U C)]

= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(B ∩ C) – P[(A ∩ (B U C)]

= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(B ∩ C) – P[(A ∩ B) U (A ∩ C)]

= P(A)+P(B)+P(C)–P(B ∩ C)–{P(A ∩ B)+P(A ∩ C)– P[(A ∩ B

(A ∩ C)]

Therefore P(AUBU C)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)–P(B ∩ C)-P(A ∩ B)–P(A ∩

C)+P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
Exercise: based on the given Venn-diagram, below, determine the
P(A U B U C).

A
B

0.06 0.18
0.24

0.22
0.06 0.14

0.06
C
THE END OF THIS UNIT
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