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Election Prediction

This document contains constituency-wise analyses of election prospects in various districts of Andhra Pradesh. It lists the constituency, expected winning party in 2019 based on 2014 results and findings on vote shares of major parties like YSRCP, TDP, Jana Sena and expected winner based on factors like anti-incumbency, community preferences etc. Overall it predicts that YSRCP is expected to win in Srikakulam, East Godavari and West Godavari districts while result may be uncertain in other districts depending on various local factors.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
132 views

Election Prediction

This document contains constituency-wise analyses of election prospects in various districts of Andhra Pradesh. It lists the constituency, expected winning party in 2019 based on 2014 results and findings on vote shares of major parties like YSRCP, TDP, Jana Sena and expected winner based on factors like anti-incumbency, community preferences etc. Overall it predicts that YSRCP is expected to win in Srikakulam, East Godavari and West Godavari districts while result may be uncertain in other districts depending on various local factors.

Uploaded by

sivamskr
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
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SRIKAKULAM

1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings


Party-2019 won -2014
1. Ichhapuram YCP TDP: 25,278 Janasena: 5000 to 10000 BJP and INC also
split. Triangle Favour to YCP
2. Palasa DL TUFF TDP: 17,525 Triangle favour to TDP, YCP or Janasena

3. Tekkali TDP TDP: 8,387 Janasena: no sufficient vote bank, it shares


anti-incumbency. favour to TDP
4. Pathapatnam TUFF YCP:3,865 Janasena normal

5. Srikakulam YCP TDP:24,131 Triangle favour to YCP

6. Amudalavalasa YCP TDP:5,449 Janasena splits above 5000


Triangle favour to YCP.
7. Etcherla TDP TDP: 4,741 Janasena shares anti- incumbency
favour to TDP
8. Narasannapeta YCP TDP:4,800 Janasena: 5,000 to 10,000
Triangle favour to YCP.

9. Rajam(SC) DL YCP YCP:512 Janasena splits 8000 above


Effects TDP favour to YCP
10 Palakonda(ST) TUFF YCP:1,620 Janasena: not much effect
Triangle makes Tuff

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


10 05 02 00 00 00 00 03

TURN OUT| Confidential


VIZAYANAGARAM Dist.
1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings
Party-2019 won -2014
1. Kurupam(ST) TUFF YCP:19,083 Janasena splits 4% and above
DL
2. Parvathipuram TUFF TDP:6,129 Janasena nominal
(SC) Both have edge.
3. Salur(ST) TUFF YCP:4,997 Janasena 5%
Favour to TDP, but groups in TDP
4. Bobbili TDP YCP:6,958 to TDP Janasena: Nominal
Favour to TDP
5. Cheepurupalli YCP TDP:20,842 Janasena splits 5% above
Favour to YCP
6. Gajapathinagaram YCP TDP:19,423 Janasena splits 5% above
Favour to YCP
7. Nellimarla DL TUFF TDP:6,973 Janasena splits 5% above
Favour to YCP
8. Vijayanagaram TUFF TDP:15,404 Janasena nominal
May be favour to TDP
9. S.Kota TDP TDP:28,572 Janasena splits 4% not effect to TDP

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


09 02 02 00 00 00 00 05

TURN OUT| Confidential


Visakhapatnam:
1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings
Party-2019 won -2014
1. Bhimili YCP TDP:37,226 favour to YCP

2. Visakhapatnam East TUFF TDP:47,883 Community favour to YCP

3. Visakhapatnam South TUFF TDP:18,316 Choice to TDP

4. Visakhapatnam North TDP BJP:18,240 Candidate influence decides

5. Visakhapatnam West TUFF TDP:30,857 Anti- incumbency may split

6. Gajuwaka JNS TDP:21,712 Communists plus Kapu voting

7. Chodavaram YCP TDP:909 Janasena splits, Triangle leads YCP

8. Madugula TUFF YCP:4,761 Janasena splits

9. Araku Valley(ST) YCP YCP:34,053 to TDP Janasena nominal favour to YCP.

10 Paderu YCP YCP: 26,141 Janasena: nominal favour to YCP.

11. Anakapalli TDP TDP: 22,341

12. Pendurthi YCP TDP:18,648 Triangle favour to YCP

13. Yealamanchili YCP TDP: 8,375 Advantage to YCP.

14. Payakaraopeta TUFF TDP:2,828 Not public prefers

15. Narsipatnam YCP TDP: 2,338 Janasena splits above5%


. Triangle favour to YCP

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


15 07 02 01 00 00 00 05

TURN OUT| Confidential


East Godavari:

1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings


Party-2019 won -2014
1. Tuni YCP YCP:18,573 Janasena splits 10%
2. Prathipadu TUFF YCP: 3,413 Janasena splits 18,000
3. Pithapuram TUFF TDP: 47,080 Triangle fight.
4. Kakinada Rural YCP TDP:9,048
5. Peddapuram TDP TDP: 10,663
6. Anaparthy YCP TDP: 1,373
7. Kakinada City TUFF TDP: 24,000 Janasena 10%
8. Ramachandrapuram YCP TDP: 16,922 Janasena 10% Triangle
favour to YCP
9. Mummidivaram TDP TDP:29,538
10 Amalapuram (SC) YCP TDP:12,413
11. Razole (SC) TUFF TDP:4,683 Janasena 7%

12. Gannavaram (SC) TDP TDP:13,505


13. Kothapeta TUFF YCP:713 Janasena 9% Fight Choice
to YCP
14. Mandapeta TDP TDP:36,014 Janasena 7% Choice to
TDP
15. Rajanagaram TUFF TDP: 8,887 Janasena 12% Choice to
TDP
16. Rajamundry City TDP BJP:26,377 Janasena 18% Triangle
favour to TDP
17. Rajamundry Rural TUFF TDP: 18,058 Janasena 10% Choice to
YCP
18. Jaggampeta YCP YCP:15,932 to TDP

19. Rampachodavaram (ST) YCP YCP:8,222 Janasena: Nominal


Favour to YCP

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


19 07 05 00 00 00 00 07

TURN OUT| Confidential


West Godavari:
1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings
Party-2019 won -2014
1. Kovvur (SC) YCP TDP:12,745 Janasena Favour to YCP
2. Nidadavolu TDP TDP: 6,359 Favour to TDP

3. Achanta TDP TDP:3,920 Janasena 17%

4. Palakollu TDP TDP:6,383 Janasena 12%

5. Narsapuram TUFF TDP:21,712 Choice to all

6. Bhimavaram TUFF TDP: 13,726

7. Undi TDP TDP: 36,231 Janasena:12% TDP: Choice

8. Tanuku YCP TDP: 30,948 Janasena

9. Tadepalligudem TDP BJP: 14,073 Janasena 11%

10. Unguturu YCP TDP: 8,390 Janasena: fight Choice to YCP

11. Denduluru TUFF TDP: 17,746 Janasena Triangle favour to TDP

12. Eluru YCP TDP:24,603 Janasena : fight

13. Gopalapuram (SC) YCP TDP:11,540

14. Polavaram (ST) TUFF TDP:15,720

15. Chinthalapudi (SC) YCP TDP:15,164 Janasena: Nominal Choice to YCP

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


15 06 05 00 00 00 00 04

TURN OUT| Confidential


Krishna:
1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings
Party-2019 won -2014
1. Tiruvuru(SC) YCP YCP:1,676 Janasena 7% Favour to YCP

2. Nuzvid YCP YCP:10,397 Janasena:6% choice to YCP

3. Gannavaram TDP TDP:9,548 Favour to TDP

4. Gudiwada YCP YCP:11,537 Janasena:8% Favour to YCP

5. Kaikaluru YCP BJP:21,571 Janasena:8% Favour to YCP

6. Pedana TUFF TDP:13,694 Janasena: 19%

7. Machilipatnam YCP TDP:15,806 Choice to YCP ( janasena 12%)

8. Avanigadda TUFF TDP:5958 Janasena:14% Triangle favour to TDP

9. Pamarru(SC) TDP YCP:1,069 to Janasena: 8% Choice to YCP


TDP

10. Penamaluru TDP TDP:31,448 favour to TDP

11. Vijayawada West TUFF YCP:3,108 to Janasena:15% Choice to YCP


TDP

12. Vijayawada Central TUFF TDP:27,161 Janasena: 11% Choice to YCP

13. Vijayawada East TDP TDP:15,503 Janasena:10%

14. Mylavaram TDP TDP:7,569 Janasena: Nominal (if janasena gets more
votes Choice to YCP)
15. Nandigama (SC) TUFF TDP:5,212 Janasena: Nominal Triangle favour to TDP

16 Jaggayyapeta TUFF TDP:1846 Janasena: Nominal TUFF

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


16 05 05 00 00 00 00 06

TURN OUT| Confidential


Guntur:
1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings
Party-2019 won -2014
1. Pedakurapadu TDP TDP:9196 Janasena: Nominal

2. Tadikonda (SC) YCP TDP: 7,542 Janasena: Nominal

3. Mangalagiri TUFF YCP:12 Janasena 09% splits favour o YCP.

4. Ponnuru TDP TDP:7,761 Janasena:8%

5. Vemuru (SC) TDP TDP:2,127 Janasena: nominal

6. Repalle YCP TDP:13,355 Janasena:10% Triangle may


advantage to YCP
7. Tenali TUFF TDP:19,065 Triangle advantage to all

8. Bapatla YCP YCP:5,813 Janasena:Nominal

9. Prathipadu (SC) TUFF TDP:7,405 Janasena 15%

10. Guntur West TUFF TDP:17,913 Favour to YCP or Janasena

11. Guntur East TUFF YCP:3,151

12. Chilakaluripeta TUFF TDP:10,684 Janasena Nominal Favour to both

13. Narasaraopeta YCP YCP:15,766

14. Sattenapalli TUFF TDP:924

15. Vinukonda TDP TDP:21,407 Janasena: Nominal Favour to TDP

16. Gurajala YCP TDP:7,187

17. Macherla YCP YCP:3,535 Janasena: Nominal


Favour to YCP.

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


17 06 04 00 00 00 00 07

TURN OUT| Confidential


Prakasam:
1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings
Party-2019 won -2014
1. Yerragondapalem(SC) YCP YCP:19,071 to Janasena: Nominal Favour to YCP
TDP
2. Darsi YCP TDP: 1,974

3. Parchur TUFF TDP:10,775 Jenasena: Nominal TUFF between YCP


and TDP
4. Addanki TDP YCP:4,235 to Janasena: Nominal
TDP
5. Chirala YCP IND: 10,335 to
TDP
6. Santhanuthalapadu TDP YCP:1,276 Non local
(SC)
7. Ongole TUFF TDP:12,428 Janasena:10%

8. Kandukur YCP YCP:3,806 YCP to TDP

9. Kondepi(SC) TDP TDP:5,440 Janasena:nominal


Favour to TDP
10. Markapuram YCP YCP:9,802 Janasena:Nominal
Favour to YCP
11. Giddaluru YCP YCP:12,893 YCPto TDP
Favour to YCP
12. Kanigiri TUFF TDP:7,207 Janasena: Nominal
Favour to YCP.

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


12 06 03 00 00 00 00 03

TURN OUT| Confidential


Nellore:
1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings
Party-2019 won -2014
1. Kavali YCP YCP:4,969 Triangle favour to TDP

2. Atmakur YCP YCP:31,412 Janasena: Nominal

3. Kovur YCP TDP:7,937

4. Nellore City TUFF YCP:19,087 Janasena 12%


Triangle favour to YCP
5. Nellore Rural YCP YCP:25,653

6. Sarvepalli YCP YCP:5,446

7. Guduru YCP YCP:9,048

8. Sullurupeta YCP YCP:3,726

9. Venkatagiri YCP TDP:5,635

10. Udayagiri YCP TDP:3,622

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


10 09 00 00 00 00 00 01

TURN OUT| Confidential


Kadapa:
1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings
Party-2019 won -2014
1. Badvel YCP YCP:10,079

2. Rajampeta YCP TDP:11,617

3. Kadapa YCP YCP:45,205

4. RailWay Koduru (SC) YCP YCP:1,972

5. Rayachoti YCP YCP:34,782

6. Pulivendula YCP YCP:75,243

7. Kamalapuram YCP YCP:5,345

8. Jammalamadugu YCP YCP:12,167 to TDP


9. Proddutur YCP YCP:12,945
10. Mydukur YCP YCP: 11,522

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


10 10 00 00 00 00 00 00

TURN OUT| Confidential


Kurnool District:
1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings
Party-2019 won -2014
1. Allagadda TUFF YCP:17,928 to TDP YCP to TDP

2. Srisailam YCP YCP: 4,861

3. Nandikotkur(SC) YCP YCP21,814 Janasena: Nominal Favour to


YCP
4. Kurnool YCP YCP: 3,479 YCP to TDP

5. Panyam YCP YCP:11,647

6. Nandyala TUFF TDP: 27,000

7. Banaganapalle TDP TDP: 17,341 Janasena: 5%

8. Dhone YCP TDP:11,152

9. Pattikonda YCP TDP: 7,899

10. Kodumuru YCP YCP:52,384 YCP to TDP

11. Yemmiganur TDP TDP:14,361 (2014)


Janasena: 5%
12. Mantralayam YCP YCP:7,462 Janaseana: Nominal
Choice to YCP
13. Adoni YCP YCP: 16,831

14. Aluru TUFF YCP:1,919

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


14 09 02 00 00 00 00 03

TURN OUT| Confidential


Anantapur:
1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings
Party-2019 won -2014
1. Rayadurgam YCP TDP: 1,827

2. Uravakonda YCP YCP:2,275

3. Guntakal TUFF TDP: 5,094 Janasena :5%

4. Tadipatri TDP TDP: 22,172

5. Singanamala(SC) YCP TDP:4,584

6. Anantapur Urban YCP TDP:9,334

7. Kalyanadurgam TDP TDP: 22,319

8. Rapthadu TUFF TDP: 7,774

9. Madakasira(SC) TUFF TDP:14,712

10. Hindupur TUFF TDP: 16,196


11. Penukonda TDP TDP: 17,415

12. Puttaparthi YCP TDP: 6,964

13. Dharmavaram TUFF TDP:14,211

14. Kadiri YCP YCP:968 to TDP

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


14 06 03 00 00 00 00 05

TURN OUT| Confidential


Chittor
1.S.No 2.Constituency 3.Expected Party 5.Findings
Party-2019 won -2014
1. Thamballapalli TUFF TDP: 9,190
Choice to YCP
2. Pileru YCP YCP: 15,313
Choice to YCP
3. Madanapalli TUFF YCP: 16,589
Choice to YCP
4. Punganuru YCP YCP:31,731 Janasena:10%

Choice to YCP
5. Chandragiri YCP YCP:4,518

6. Tirupati TUFF TDP: 41,539


Choice to YCP
7. Srikalahasti TUFF TDP:7,583 (2014) Favour to TDP

8. Satyavedu YCP TDP:4,227

9 Nagari YCP YCP:858

10. Gangadhara Nellore YCP YCP:20,565


(SC)
11. Chittoor TUFF TDP:6,799
TUFF
12. Puthalapattu(SC) YCP YCP:902

13. Palamaneru YCP YCP:2,890

14. Kuppam TDP TDP: 47,121

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


14 08 01 00 00 00 00 05

TURN OUT| Confidential


Grand total- 20 March,2019

TOTAL YCP TDP JNS INC BJP OTHERS TUFF


175 85 34 01 00 00 00 55

TUFF, 54
YCP,
86
JNS, 1

TDP, 34
.

Performance of TDP Performance of TDP


Government MLA
6% 6%

48% Good 32% Good


46% Bad 62% Bad
Can't Say Can't Say

CM Candidate Caste preference


preferences 80
60
12% TDP
40
Jagan YCP
46% 20
42% Chandrababu 0 JNS

Pawan Others

AP Assembly-2019
150
100
175

50
0
YCP TDP JNS Others
Column2 95 65 2 0
Column1 105 75 6 0

TURN OUT| Confidential

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