Factors Affecting Decision Making Process (PRINCIPLES OF

MANAGEMENT)

Introduction

Decision making is the cognitive procedure of selecting the path of accomplishment from among
numerous alternatives. This process generates an alternative action or an outlook that determines
the behavior of the decision maker and therefore has an insightful sway on task performance of
an individual. Decision making in an aviation atmosphere involves any relevant decision that a
pilot must make during the demeanor of a flight which includes both- preflight go/no-go
decisions as well as those made during the flight. In aviation, the decision making is of
meticulous significance in order to avoid any mishap.

However, things are different in case of collective decision making and individual decision
making. As Urban, Weaver, Bowers and Rhodenizer have mentioned the factors influencing the
collective decision-making process include:

 Time stress
 Workload
 Style of leadership
 Personality and mood of team members
 Ability, experience and stature or reputation of the team members
 Confidence, doubt and the social dynamic among team members

Statement of Problem

Aviation being the toughest field in every aspect, one ought to have a separate group of
professional managers in order to achieve results. Globalization made technological
advancements easy and due to this- managerial task not only became imperative but also began
to institutionalize knowledge. The sprouting complexity of technology- supported invention
systems resulted in the call for for people to work in groups to achieve the jobs and the goals of a
group.It became imperative to use few management principles and practices to coordinate
personality efforts and decipher these to a group effort. The principles of management provide
such basic and institutionalized knowledge to prepare individuals to take responsibility as future
managers of organizations. Decision making is an integral part of modern management therefore
decisions play a very important role as they determine both organizational and managerial
activities. Decision making is a coherent and rational process of identifying a set of feasible
alternatives and choosing a most appropriate course of action.
Research Question

My research revolves around the following thoughts:

The aim of this project is to understand the role a decision making process plays in an
organization and critically analyze its applicability in aviation sector? To study and compare
various decision styles adopted by present day managers and its feasibility in aviation?

Hypothesis

Since everyone has a unique personality and individual way of carrying a task- what impact will
it have on the decision making in the field of aviation?

Research Methodology

My research will be based on both- primary and secondary sources including couple of E-
journals. Though, there will be no field work, but data comparing and analyzing will broaden the
research.

Tentative Chapterization

 Introduction
 General theories of management in relation with Aviation
 Leadership, management and coordination in context of Aviation
 How does leadership affect hierarchy in Aviation?
 Conclusion
Decision making is an integral part of every aspect of life. This also applies
to organizations. It is one of the key factors that pave the way for its
success or failure. Every manager is required to execute decisions at
various levels of the management cycle beginning from planning to control.
It is the effectiveness and quality of those decisions that determine how
successful a manager is.

Without decision making, different managerial functions such as planning,

organizing, directing, controlling, and staffing cannot be conducted.
Decision making is a cumulative and consultative process, and should
support organizational growth.

The main function of every management is making the right decisions and
seeing them through to their logical end through execution. Every
management decision also affects employee morale and performance,
ultimately influencing the overall business performance. The importance of
decision making in management is immense, as the business policy and
strategies adopted ultimately affects the company's output and
performance.
Decision making is the coherent and rational process of identifying a set of feasible
alternatives and choosing a course of action from them.

Types of Decisions
Decision making and problem solving is a continuous process of analyzing
and considering various alternatives in various situations, choosing the
most appropriate course of action and following them up with the necessary
actions.

There are two basic types of decisions −

 Programmed Decisions

 Non-programmed Decisions

Programmed Decisions
Programmed decisions are those that are made using standard operating
procedures or other well-defined methods. They are situations that are
routine and occur frequently.
Organizations come up with specific ways to handle them. Programmed
decisions are effective for day-to-day issues such as requests for leave or
permissions by employees. Once the decision is taken, the program
specifies processes or procedures to be followed when similar situation
arises. Creating such programed routines lead to the formulation of rules,
procedures and policies, which becomes a standard in the organization.

Non-programmed Decisions
Non-programmed decisions are unique and one-shot decisions. They are not
as structured as programmed decisions and are usually tackled through
judgment and creativity.

They are innovative in essence, as newly created or unexpected problems

are settled through unconventional and novel solutions.

Decisions are typically made under one of three conditions −

 Certainty

 Risk and

 Uncertainty

These conditions are based on the amount of knowledge the decision maker
has regarding the final outcome of the decision. The manager's decision
depends on a number of factors, like the manager's knowledge, experience,
understanding and intuition.

Certainty
 Decisions are made under conditions of certainty when the manager has enough
information to know the outcome of the decision before it is made.

 The manager knows the available alternatives as well as the conditions and
consequences of those actions.

 There is little ambiguity and hence relatively low possibility of making a bad
decision.

Risk
 Most managerial decisions are made under conditions of risk.
  Decisions are taken in risk when the manager has some information leading to
the decision but does not know everything and is unsure or unaware of the
consequences.

Under conditions of risk, the manager may find it helpful to use probability
estimates. This is where the manager’s experience and/or intelligence is of
great help.

Uncertainty
 Decisions are made under uncertainty when the probabilities of the results are
unknown.

 There is no awareness of all the alternatives and also the outcomes, even for the
known alternatives.

Under such conditions managers need to make certain assumptions about

the situation in order to provide a reasonable framework for decision
making. Intuition, judgment, and experience always play a major role in the
decision

making process under conditions of uncertainty.

The decision-making process involves the following steps −

 Define the problem

 Identify limiting factors

 Develop potential alternatives

 Analyze and select the best alternatives

 Implement the decision

Define the Problem
The first step in the process of decision making is the recognition or
identification of the problem, and recognizing that a decision needs to be
taken.

It is important to accurately define the problem. Managers can do this by

identifying the problem separately from its symptoms. Studying the
symptoms helps getting closer to the root cause of the problem.

Identify Limiting Factors

In order to choose the best alternative and make a decision every manager
needs to have the ideal resources − information, time, personnel,
equipment, and supplies. But this is an ideal situation and may not always
be possible.

A limiting factor is something that stands in the way of accomplishing a

desired objective.

Develop Potential Alternatives

Recognizing the limiting factor in a given situation makes it possible to
narrow down the search for alternatives and make the best decision
possible with the information, resources, and time available.
Some methods for developing alternatives are −

 Brainstorming, where a group works together to generate ideas and

alternative solutions.

 Nominal group technique is a method that involves the use of a highly

structured meeting, complete with an agenda, and restricts discussion or
interpersonal communication during the decision-making process.

 Delphi technique where the participants do not meet, but a group leader uses
written questionnaires to conduct the decision making.

Analyze the Alternatives

This is an important stage in the decision-making process and perhaps the
toughest. Managers must identify the merits and demerits of each
alternative and weigh them in light of various situations before making a
final decision.

Evaluating the alternatives can be done in numerous ways. Here are a few
possibilities −

 Qualitative and quantitative measurements

 Perform a cost‐effectiveness analysis for each alternative

 Once the alternatives are analyzed and evaluated, the manager has to
choose the best one. The manager needs to choose the alternative
that gives the most advantage while meeting all the required criteria.
Sometimes the choice is simple with obvious benefits, at times the
optimal solution is a combination of several alternatives. At times
when the best alternative may not be obvious, the manager uses
probability estimates, research and analysis aided by his experience
and judgment.

 Evaluating Decision Effectiveness

 The job of the managers does not end with making decisions. They are also
responsible to get favorable results from the decision taken and implemented.

 The effectiveness of a decision can be understood through a systematic and

scientific evaluation system that provides feedback on how well the decision is
 being implemented, what the results have been, and what amendments and
adjustments have been made to get the intended results.

 Decision making style of managers depend greatly on their personality

and approach towards problem solving. Every leader or manager has
his own individualistic style augmented by his experience,
background, and abilities.

Managers who follow this style assess few

alternatives and consider limited information
Directive or Autocratic while taking any decision.
Decision Making
They do not find it important to consult with
others or seek information in any form and use
their logic and idea while taking decisions.

Managers using analytic decision making style

would like to have more information and
consider more alternatives before coming to a
conclusion.

They seek relevant information from their

Analytical Decision Making
sources and consider factual and detailed
information before taking any decision. Such
managers are careful decision makers as they
have the ability to adapt or cope with unique
situations.

Leaders who follow this model believe in

participative management and consider the
achievement of subordinates and always take
suggestions from them.
Behavioral Decision Making
They try to get inputs from subordinates
through meetings and discussions. They try to
avoid/resolve conflicts as acceptance by others
is important to them.
 Managers using conceptual decision making
style are intuitive in their thinking and have

Conceptual Decision Making high tolerance for ambiguity.

They look at many alternatives and focus on

long run outcomes.

Decision making is a very important and complex process. In order to aid

decision makers make the right choice, quantitative techniques are used
that improve the overall quality of decision making.

Following are some of the commonly used techniques −

Decision Trees
Decision Trees are tools that help choose between several courses of action
or alternatives. They are −

 Represented as tree-shaped diagram used to determine a course of action or

show a statistical probability.

 Each branch of the decision tree represents a possible decision or occurrence.

 The tree structure shows how one choice leads to the next, and the use of
branches indicates that each option is mutually exclusive.

 A decision tree can be used by a manager to graphically represent which actions

could be taken and how these actions relate to future events.

Delphi Technique
Delphi Technique is a method used to estimate the likelihood and outcome
of future events. It is unique because −

 It is a group process using written responses to a series of questionnaires

instead of physically bringing individuals together to make a decision.

 Individuals are required to respond to a set of multiple questionnaires, with each

subsequent questionnaire built from the information gathered in the previous
one.

 The process ends when the group reaches a consensus.

 The responses can be kept anonymous if required.

Payback Analysis
Payback analysis is a technique generally used in financial management.

 It refers to the period of time required to recoup the funds expended in an

investment, or to reach the break-even point.

 It is generally used to evaluate capital-purchasing alternatives.

 Alternatives are ranked according to the time each takes to pay back its initial
cost.

 The strategy is to choose the alternative that has the quickest payback of the
initial cost.

Simulations
Simulation is a technique that attempts to replace and amplify real
experiences with guided techniques.

 It is a widely used technique in operations research.

 It models the behavior of individual elements within a given system.

 Methods generally used in simulation are random sampling to generate realistic

variability.

 The overall behavior of the system emerges from the interactions between the
elements.

 Widely used application areas of the simulation technique are - logistics and
supply chain, service and operations management, business process
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Decision making pervades every aspect of life: people make hundreds of decisions every day. The
vast majority of these are trivial and without a right or wrong answer. In some respects there is also
nothing extraordinary about pilot decision making. It is only the setting that is different - the
underlying cognitive processes are just the same. However, it is the context and the consequences
of a poor decision which serve to differentiate aeronautical decision making. Decisions on the flight
deck are often made with incomplete information and while under time pressure. The implications for
inadequate performance is much more serious than in many other professions. Poor decisions are
implicated in over half of all aviation accidents. This volume contains key papers published over the
last 25 years providing an overview of the major paradigms by which aeronautical decision making
has been investigated. Furthermore, decision making does not occur in isolation. It is a joint function
of the flight tasks; knowledge; equipment on the flight deck and other stressors. In this volume of
collected papers, works from leading authors in the field consider all these aspects of aeronautical
decision making.