Pricing and Hedging Under The Black-Merton-Scholes Model: Liuren Wu
Pricing and Hedging Under The Black-Merton-Scholes Model: Liuren Wu
Black-Merton-Scholes Model
Liuren Wu
Options Markets
The binomial model: Discrete states and discrete time (The number of
possible stock prices and time steps are both finite).
The BSM model: Continuous states (stock price can be anything between 0
and ∞) and continuous time (time goes continuously).
Scholes and Merton won Nobel price. Black passed away.
BSM proposed the model for stock option pricing. Later, the model has
been extended/twisted to price currency options (Garman&Kohlhagen) and
options on futures (Black).
I treat all these variations as the same concept and call them
indiscriminately the BMS model.
1 2
Integral form: St = S0 e µt− 2 σ t+σWt
, ln St = ln S0 + µt − 21 σ 2 t + σWt
1.8 0.018
1.4 0.014
PDF of ln(St/S0)
1.2 0.012
PDF of St
1 0.01
0.8 0.008
0.6 0.006
0.4 0.004
0.2 0.002
0 0
−1 −0.5 0 0.5 1 50 100 150 200 250
ln(St/S0) St
0.04
180
0.03
160
0.02
Daily returns
Stock price
0.01 140
0 120
−0.01
100
−0.02
80
−0.03
−0.04 60
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Days days
Under the binomial model, if we cut time step ∆t small enough, the
binomial tree converges to the distribution behavior of the geometric
Brownian motion.
Reversely, the Brownian motion dynamics implies that if we slice the time
thin enough (dt), it behaves like a binomial tree.
I Under this thin slice of time interval, we can combine the option with
the stock to form a riskfree portfolio, like in the binomial case.
I Recall our hedging argument: Choose ∆ such that f − ∆S is riskfree.
I The portfolio is riskless (under this thin slice of time interval) and must
earn the riskfree rate.
I Since we can hedge perfectly, we do not need to worry about risk
premium and expected return. Thus, µ does not matter for this
portfolio and hence does not matter for the option valuation.
I Only σ matters, as it controls the width of the binomial branching.
∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f
+ (r − q)S + σ 2 S 2 2 = rf
∂t ∂S 2 ∂S
I The only free parameter is σ (as in the binomial model).
Solving this PDE, subject to the terminal payoff condition of the derivative
(e.g., fT = (ST − K )+ for a European call option), BMS derive analytical
formulas for call and put option value.
I Similar formula had been derived before based on distributional
(normal return) argument, but µ was still in.
I More importantly, the derivation of the PDE provides a way to hedge
the option position.
The PDE is generic for any derivative securities, as long as S follows
geometric Brownian motion.
I Given boundary conditions, derivative values can be solved numerically
from the PDE.
Liuren Wu ( Baruch) The Black-Merton-Scholes Model Options Markets 12 / 36
How effective is the BMS delta hedge in practice?
If you sell an option, the BMS model says that you can completely remove
the risk of the call by continuously rebalancing your stock holding to
neutralize the delta of the option.
We perform the following experiment using history S&P options data from
1996 - 2011:
I Sell a call option
I Record the P&L from three strategies
H Hold: Just hold the option.
S Static: Perform delta hedge at the very beginning, but with no further
rebalancing.
D Dynamic: Actively rebalance delta at the end of each day.
“D” represents a daily discretization of the BMS suggestion.
Compared to “H” (no hedge), how much do you think the daily discretized
BMS suggestion (“D”) can reduce the risk of the call?
1 85
80
0.8
75
0.6
70
0.4 65
60
0.2
55 Static
Dynamic
0 50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Days Days
95 95
Percentage Variance Reduction
85 85
80 80
75 75
70 70
65 65
60 1 month 60 1 month
2 month 2 month
55 5 month 55 5 month
12 month 12 month
50 50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Days Year
Dynamic delta hedge works equally well on both short and long-term options.
Hedging performance deteriorates in the presence of large moves.
ln(Ft /K ) ± 21 σ 2 (T − t)
ct = e −r (T −t) [Ft N(d1 ) − KN(d2 )] , d1,2 = √
σ T −t
N(x) denotes the cumulative normal distribution, which measures the
probability that a normally distributed variable with a mean of zero and a
standard deviation of 1 (φ(0, 1)) is less than x.
See tables at the end of the book for its values.
Most software packages (including excel) has efficient ways to computing
this function.
Properties of the BSM formula:
I As St becomes very large or K becomes very small, ln(Ft /K ) ↑ ∞,
N(d1 ) = N(d2 ) = 1. ct = e −r (T −t) [Ft − K ] .
I Similarly, as St becomes very small or K becomes very large,
ln(Ft /K ) ↑ −∞, N(−d1 ) = N(−d2 ) = 1. pt = e −r (T −t) [−Ft + K ].
ln(Ft /K ) ± 21 σ 2 (T − t)
ct = e −r (T −t) [Ft N(d1 ) − KN(d2 )] , d1,2 = √
σ T −t
Since Ft (or St ) is observable from the underlying stock or futures market,
(K , t, T ) are specified in the contract. The only unknown (and hence free)
parameter is σ.
We can estimate σ from time series return. (standard deviation calculation).
Alternatively, we can choose σ to match the observed option price —
implied volatility (IV).
There is a one-to-one correspondence between prices and implied volatilities.
Traders and brokers often quote implied volatilities rather than dollar prices.
The BSM model says that IV = σ. In reality, the implied volatility calculated
from different options (across strikes, maturities, dates) are usually different.
In the risk-neutral world, investing in all securities make the riskfree rate as
the total return.
If a stock pays a dividend yield of q, then the risk-neutral expected return
from stock price appreciation is (r − q), such as the total expected return is:
dividend yield+ price appreciation =r .
Investing in a currency earns the foreign interest rate rf similar to dividend
yield. Hence, the risk-neutral expected currency appreciation is (r − rf ) so
that the total expected return is still r .
Regard q as rf and value options as if they are the same.
0.6 80
0.4 70
0.2 60
Delta
Delta
0 50
−0.2 40
−0.4 30
−0.6 20
−0.8 10
−1 0
60 80 100 120 140 160 180 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Strike Strike
Example: A bank has sold for $300,000 a European call option on 100,000
shares of a nondividend paying stock, with the following information:
St = 49, K = 50, r = 5%, σ = 20%, (T − t) = 20weeks, µ = 13%.
I What’s the BSM value for the option? → $2.4
I What’s the BSM delta for the option? → 0.5216.
Strategies:
I Naked position: Take no position in the underlying.
I Covered position: Buy 100,000 shares of the underlying.
I Stop-loss strategy: Buy 100,000 shares as soon as price reaches $50,
sell 100,000 shares as soon as price falls below $50.
I Delta hedging: Buy 52,000 share of the underlying stock now. Adjust
the shares over time to maintain a delta-neutral portfolio.
F Need frequent rebalancing (daily) to maintain delta neutral.
F Involves a “buy high and sell low” trading rule.
40
(St = 100, T − t = 1, σ = 20%) 40
35 35
30 30
25 25
Vega
Vega
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
60 80 100 120 140 160 180 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
Strike d2
Consider an option portfolio that is delta-neutral but with a vega of −8, 000. We
plan to make the portfolio both delta and vega neutral using two instruments:
The underlying stock
A traded option with delta 0.6 and vega 2.0.
How many shares of the underlying stock and the traded option contracts do we
need?
As before, it is easier to take care of the vega first and then worry about the
delta using stocks.
To achieve vega neutral, we need short/write 60000/10 = 6000 contracts of
the traded option.
With the traded option position added to the portfolio, the delta of the
portfolio becomes 2000 − 0.5 × 6000 = −1000.
We hence also need to long 1000 shares of the underlying stock.
0.02
(St = 100, T − t = 1, σ = 20%) 0.02
0.018 0.018
0.016 0.016
0.014 0.014
0.012 0.012
Vega
Vega
0.01 0.01
0.008 0.008
0.006 0.006
0.004 0.004
0.002 0.002
0 0
60 80 100 120 140 160 180 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
Strike d2
it moves — a binomial tree can be very large moves, but delta hedge
works perfectly.
I As long as we know the magnitude, hedging is relatively easy.
I The key problem comes from large moves of random size.
An alternative is to devise static hedging strategies: The position of the
hedging instruments does not vary over time.
I Conceptually not as easy. Different derivative products ask for different
static strategies.
I It involves more option positions. Cost per transaction is high.
I Monitoring cost is low. Fewer transactions.
Examples:
I “Static hedging of standard options,” Carr and Wu, JFEC.
working paper.
Liuren Wu ( Baruch) The Black-Merton-Scholes Model Options Markets 35 / 36
Summary